Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

...] Ukraine is faced with the harsh reality that they need to demonstrate some significant progress this summer in order to justify getting more military aid from the West. [...

This is way, way too much 'self-fulfilling prophecy/pre-deterministic' for my liking.

And what are 'we' basing this on?...

When will the F-16s be fully operational at the earliest? If they have been secretly training ground crews before the June 1st decision was made, then could they be flying by November? Or is it going to drag out until May-ish next year?...

Why should the west cut support to UKR before the F-16s has had some months to 'work'?

And which country is going to stop supporting UKR?

So what if some isolationist gets elected in the US... I don't see the rest of the collective west stopping their support. And I'm (unfortunately) of course not counting 'pipsqueaks' like Hungary, Switzerland and Austria into the collective west here. So any isolationist in the US is going to have to go up against the rest of the collective west and also against some pretty strong internal opposition within the US itself...

Also: The 'isolationist side' in the US doesn't really look 'that strong' as of now IMO...

Self-fulfilling prophecy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Determinism - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

‘The Feckless 400’: These companies are still doing business in Russia–and funding Putin’s war​

'The Feckless 400': These companies are still doing business in Russia–and funding Putin’s war

'While there is very little transparency, our best estimate is that the Feckless 400 represent at least $200 million in Russian revenues.'

fortune.com

Credit goes to:

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder

https://twitter.com/x/status/1678901532702707713

 

[madodel]

This is way, way too much 'self-fulfilling prophecy/pre-deterministic' for my liking.

And what are 'we' basing this on?...

When will the F-16s be fully operational at the earliest? If they have been secretly training ground crews before the June 1st decision was made, then could they be flying by November? Or is it going to drag out until May-ish next year?...

Why should the west cut support to UKR before the F-16s has had some months to 'work'?

And which country is going to stop supporting UKR?

So what if some isolationist gets elected in the US... I don't see the rest of the collective west stopping their support. And I'm (unfortunately) of course not counting 'pipsqueaks' like Hungary, Switzerland and Austria into the collective west here. So any isolationist in the US is going to have to go up against the rest of the collective west and also against some pretty strong internal opposition within the US itself...

Also: The 'isolationist side' in the US doesn't really look 'that strong' as of now IMO...

Self-fulfilling prophecy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Determinism - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ukraine is fighting this battle against fascist evil for the entire world. But there are people in every country who support Putin, there are those who naively oppose all wars and there are people who just don't care until the storm troopers are coming for them. Next year will prove very important to the continued support of Ukraine by the US and probably other allies in this fight.

 

[MC3OZ]

1. Maneuver warfare (failed)
2. Attrition of Russian artillery (where we are now)
3. Attrition of Russian manpower (cluster munitions)
4. Maneuver warfare again

Yes, this makes perfect sense to me.

Measuring Ukrainian success by territory taken is perhaps the wrong measure, the relevant measure is the attrition and replenishment of Russian resources, compared to the attrition and replenishment of Ukrainian resources.

At the start of the wear Russia had more tanks, now Ukraine has more tanks.

Artillery is trending towards parity and the Russians will probably find replenishment harder.

Once Ukraine has an artillery advantage, they can leverage it to obtain a territory and manpower advantage.

The war can still end for multiple reasons. One reason is simply because the Russians have had enough, and want it to end,. We are approaching the point where most Russians want the war to end, but Putin needs to keep the war going,.

Putin is hoping that the west and Ukraine will blink first, keeping Ukraine well supplied is the best way to inform Putin that the prospect of a negotiated deal on his terms is completely off the table.

Ukraine eventually taking back all of the territory could still happen, and once it gets rolling it may go fast, much faster than this phase would suggest. if Putin becomes convinced that is likely to happen, then that would also possibly motivate him to strike a deal.

I no longer believe the theory that Putin is uninformed, after his recent chat with Prig, he probably has a good idea of how the war is tracking and where it will end up. He may still be hoping to lift the rate of Russian replenishment, but realistically speaking Russia and Iran are up against 40 nations one of which is the US and the Ukrainians are doing a better job of destroying Russian assets.

Ukraine are doing a job job of setting a high bar on the kind of deal they will accept, that is a good negotiating position, especially when the situations is increasingly favouring Ukraine.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Ukraine is fighting this battle against fascist evil for the entire world. But there are people in every country who support Putin, there are those who naively oppose all wars and there are people who just don't care until the storm troopers are coming for them. Next year will prove very important to the continued support of Ukraine by the US and probably other allies in this fight.

Who are these other allies?

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Ukraine is fighting this battle against fascist evil for the entire world. But there are people in every country who support Putin, there are those who naively oppose all wars and there are people who just don't care until the storm troopers are coming for them. Next year will prove very important to the continued support of Ukraine by the US and probably other allies in this fight.

The support for the Russian Dictator in Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark is basically Zero(!)... In which(?) Western countries does the Russian Dictator have any kind of noticeable support?

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Ukraine is fighting this battle against fascist evil for the entire world. But there are people in every country who support Putin, there are those who naively oppose all wars and there are people who just don't care until the storm troopers are coming for them. Next year will prove very important to the continued support of Ukraine by the US and probably other allies in this fight. [My u-line.]

In which(?) Western countries does these groups exert any kind of noticeable influence? Besides Hungary, Switzerland and Austria that is. They seem to be loosing in the US.

 

[madodel]

EXPLAINED: Russian Commander Shot Dead After Posting Runs on Strava Running App

So who would expect the Ukrainian Intelligence Service would monitor Russian social media and note that a Russian former submarine commander who launched missiles against Ukrainian civilians, posted his regular running routine? We are 500+ days into this invasion and the Russians are still sloppy with personal information that gets them killed.

 

[BitJam]

The support for the Russian Dictator in Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark is basically Zero(!)... In which(?) Western countries does the Russian Dictator have any kind of noticeable support?

There is very noticeable support for Putin in the United States of America, mostly in the vocal far right: Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, Marjorie Taylor Greene, etc.

Tucker Carlson and his Russia obsession: A timeline

Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson is in Moscow. He has a soft spot for Russia. Here's what he's said about it.

www.usatoday.com

Marjorie Taylor Greene calls for U.S. withdrawal from NATO

Greene on Tuesday argued that the alliance was "not a reliable partner whose defense spending should be paid for by American citizens."

www.newsweek.com

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

There is very noticeable support for Putin in the United States of America, mostly in the vocal far right: Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, Marjorie Taylor Greene, etc.

Tucker Carlson and his Russia obsession: A timeline

Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson is in Moscow. He has a soft spot for Russia. Here's what he's said about it.

www.usatoday.com

Marjorie Taylor Greene calls for U.S. withdrawal from NATO

Greene on Tuesday argued that the alliance was "not a reliable partner whose defense spending should be paid for by American citizens."

www.newsweek.com

I'm guessing the mods aren't going to allow discussion about Trump...

Regardless... Tucker may influence things, but when it comes to UKR – as of now, it doesn't look like he'll succeed. IMO.

 

[madodel]

In which(?) Western countries does these groups exert any kind of noticeable influence? Besides Hungary, Switzerland and Austria that is. They seem to be loosing in the US.

I wouldn't count out Erdogan completely yet either. He plays which everside is willing to ignore his misdeeds. But in the US there are some elected federal level officials that openly question the spending of assets on the Ukranians and a federal election coming up next year as we do every 2 years and some candidates are running on opposing support for Ukraniane. Also don't count out the fascist political movements in other countries. The AfD continues to gain in Germany and they have ties to Putin.

 

[Alset Srotom]

EXPLAINED: Russian Commander Shot Dead After Posting Runs on Strava Running App

So who would expect the Ukrainian Intelligence Service would monitor Russian social media and note that a Russian former submarine commander who launched missiles against Ukrainian civilians, posted his regular running routine? We are 500+ days into this invasion and the Russians are still sloppy with personal information that gets them killed.

So is the assassination of a former commander, now civilian a crime? Or do we only care about crimes perpetrated by Russians? Also I love how everyone here has overlooked UKR use of illegal mines (war crime).

Both sides are dirty as hell.

 

[adiggs]

I'm guessing the mods aren't going to allow discussion about Trump...

Regardless... Tucker may influence things, but when it comes to UKR – as of now, it doesn't look like he'll succeed. IMO.

I think they're already partially successful. At this point they're succeeding at kicking sand in the gears, and making everything take longer and yield worse results.

I think the best way to know where the US really stands isn't how much total material support is being supplied - its the funding mechanism. How much of US support for Ukraine is coming by way of a bill that passes Congress and then gets signed by the president? Maybe originally, but as best I can tell, recent support (this year?) has all been by way of executive orders and pots of money with the right kind of discretion to enable spending it on stuff for Ukraine.

Or my favorite - the DoD has had 1 or 2 accounting errors so far in Ukraine's favor worth a few $B each. Errors in how stuff sent to Ukraine was valued, such that when properly valued it meant that there was a bunch more room on the books to send more stuff.

Glad they .. err ... figured that out, but not something that can be relied on for funding a war.

 

[madodel]

So is the assassination of a former commander, now civilian a crime? Or do we only care about crimes perpetrated by Russians? Also I love how everyone here has overlooked UKR use of illegal mines (war crime).

Both sides are dirty as hell.

Maybe you should take it to the ICC and see what they say. I'm sure a lot of your crocodile tears will help prove your case.

I hope a lot of those cluster munitions that have magically already been in use according to the Baghdad Bob's of Moscow will find lots of targets and help Ukraine retake the rest of their country back. That's what this is all about.

 

[RobStark]

It is not inconceivable Rassemblement National wins the next French presidential elections.

It is not inconceivable the Slovak People's Party and We Are Family Party enter government. Supposedly Slovakia is one of the largest suppliers of artillery munitions in the West.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

It is not inconceivable Rassemblement National wins the next French presidential elections. [...

Isn't the next French presidential election in 2027?...

 

[stopcrazypp]

I think they're already partially successful. At this point they're succeeding at kicking sand in the gears, and making everything take longer and yield worse results.

I think the best way to know where the US really stands isn't how much total material support is being supplied - its the funding mechanism. How much of US support for Ukraine is coming by way of a bill that passes Congress and then gets signed by the president? Maybe originally, but as best I can tell, recent support (this year?) has all been by way of executive orders and pots of money with the right kind of discretion to enable spending it on stuff for Ukraine.

Or my favorite - the DoD has had 1 or 2 accounting errors so far in Ukraine's favor worth a few $B each. Errors in how stuff sent to Ukraine was valued, such that when properly valued it meant that there was a bunch more room on the books to send more stuff.

Glad they .. err ... figured that out, but not something that can be relied on for funding a war.

I brought up a similar point a month ago. Just a pro-Russia president alone is enough to end much of US aid, and I have zero confidence Congress can stand up to such a president especially if the veto is utilized.

Russia/Ukraine conflict

so so many funny meme's

teslamotorsclub.com

Then becomes the question if US aid ends, will European aid:
A) Increase to make up for it?
B) Stay the same?
C) Decrease?

 

[Fred42]

It is not inconceivable Rassemblement National wins the next French presidential elections.

It is not inconceivable the Slovak People's Party and We Are Family Party enter government. Supposedly Slovakia is one of the largest suppliers of artillery munitions in the West.

And the AfD is now the 2nd most popular party in Germany (20% voting intention vs. 27% for CDU-CSU).

I'd like to know whether Prigozhin's troll farm was disbanded or survives with a new leader.

 

[nativewolf]

EXPLAINED: Russian Commander Shot Dead After Posting Runs on Strava Running App

So who would expect the Ukrainian Intelligence Service would monitor Russian social media and note that a Russian former submarine commander who launched missiles against Ukrainian civilians, posted his regular running routine? We are 500+ days into this invasion and the Russians are still sloppy with personal information that gets them killed.

And the Ukrainian Intelligence agency continues to impress! Reminding me a bit of Mossad. VS the CIA for instance which as it's moments but has too many things on the plate and lacks focus.

 

[nativewolf]

I brought up a similar point a month ago. Just a pro-Russia president alone is enough to end much of US aid, and I have zero confidence Congress can stand up to such a president especially if the veto is utilized.

Russia/Ukraine conflict

so so many funny meme's

teslamotorsclub.com

Then becomes the question if US aid ends, will European aid:
A) Increase to make up for it?
B) Stay the same?
C) Decrease?

Biden admin has been really horrible planning for events like this, they could have solved the whole govt shutdown thing last fall while they had majority but instead waited, gift wrapping indecision like birthday cake.