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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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AI/Drone evolution is coming in a big way. The West leading on this will continue to tip more of the balance in favor of Ukraine, allowing their force multiplication in the face of being outnumbered by a larger Russian population. Developments for winning the long game...


The Department of Defense announced today that the U.S. will: “field attritable autonomous systems at a scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18-to-24 months.”


Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks Keynote Address: 'The Urgency to Innovate' (As.
 
No more posts about this Moderator’s predilection for using vocabulary some might find challenging when my eyes still are smarting from having to look at “attritable”, a DoD-only nonsense word created, most likely, by an attritable pencil-pusher looking to write something other than its 99.44% synonymous “expendable.”
 
No more posts about this Moderator’s predilection for using vocabulary some might find challenging when my eyes still are smarting from having to look at “attritable”, a DoD-only nonsense word created, most likely, by an attritable pencil-pusher looking to write something other than its 99.44% synonymous “expendable.”
What they were intending to say is that Russia's air defence is titratable with these drones. Solves an economic and a military problem.
 
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AI/Drone evolution is coming in a big way. The West leading on this will continue to tip more of the balance in favor of Ukraine, allowing their force multiplication in the face of being outnumbered by a larger Russian population. Developments for winning the long game...


The Department of Defense announced today that the U.S. will: “field attritable autonomous systems at a scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18-to-24 months.”


Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks Keynote Address: 'The Urgency to Innovate' (As.

I something last year about the coming thing is going to be manned aircraft that are guidance platforms for a swarm of drones. Instead of the aircraft making a strike over a target, the plane will direct smart munitions that are flying with it. In some cases these may be launched by the plane, in some others these might be full sized, pilotless aircraft carrying munitions they drop on the target. One possible future is one piloted aircraft could control a squadron of pilotless fighter-bombers that carry out the mission.

I expect drones are going to evolve fast in the next decade. We're probably going to see evolution on par with what we saw with aircraft in the 1930s. The Boeing 80A was introduced in 1929
Boeing 80A-1 | The Museum of Flight

The Boeing 247 was introduced only 4 years later
Boeing 247 - Wikipedia

The DC-2 went into production a year later, and the iconic DC-3 which was an evolution of the DC-2 a couple of years after that.

In fighters the P-12 entered service in 1930
Boeing P-12 - Wikipedia

By 1939 the Bf-109 and Spitfire were in combat units. The Vought F4U Corsair first flew in 1940.

I suspect we're going to see a revolution similar to 1930s aircraft in drone capabilities and applications over the next few years. We will look back on the Ukraine War drones as people did the WW I rickety biplanes by the mid-1930s.
 
AI/Drone evolution is coming in a big way. The West leading on this will continue to tip more of the balance in favor of Ukraine, allowing their force multiplication in the face of being outnumbered by a larger Russian population. Developments for winning the long game...


The Department of Defense announced today that the U.S. will: “field attritable autonomous systems at a scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18-to-24 months.”


Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks Keynote Address: 'The Urgency to Innovate' (As.
Other end of the technology spectrum…

I hope Ukraine starts flying dozens of dirt cheap, un-navigated, low-tech fake drones all over Moscow and sensitive places in Russia just to waste the Russian’s time pointlessly shooting harmless things down with expensive missiles. Heck, just releasing lots of medium sized balloons all about Russia probably couldn’t hurt.

Should be an excellent ROI.

Wish we could contact the right folks in the right places to effectively put this into practice in a big way ASAP.
 
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I something last year about the coming thing is going to be manned aircraft that are guidance platforms for a swarm of drones. Instead of the aircraft making a strike over a target, the plane will direct smart munitions that are flying with it. In some cases these may be launched by the plane, in some others these might be full sized, pilotless aircraft carrying munitions they drop on the target. One possible future is one piloted aircraft could control a squadron of pilotless fighter-bombers that carry out the mission.

I expect drones are going to evolve fast in the next decade. We're probably going to see evolution on par with what we saw with aircraft in the 1930s. The Boeing 80A was introduced in 1929
Boeing 80A-1 | The Museum of Flight

The Boeing 247 was introduced only 4 years later
Boeing 247 - Wikipedia

The DC-2 went into production a year later, and the iconic DC-3 which was an evolution of the DC-2 a couple of years after that.

In fighters the P-12 entered service in 1930
Boeing P-12 - Wikipedia

By 1939 the Bf-109 and Spitfire were in combat units. The Vought F4U Corsair first flew in 1940.

I suspect we're going to see a revolution similar to 1930s aircraft in drone capabilities and applications over the next few years. We will look back on the Ukraine War drones as people did the WW I rickety biplanes by the mid-1930s.
This is true, and very, very hard to be happy about.

This is NOT good beyond Ukraine.
 
Something that is good is that the Ukrainian advance continues to push forward about 1 km a day. That's really quite a decent pace but is going to require widening the salient at some point I think (armchair I am).

Anyway, today multiple sources show Ukraine right up on the anti tank ditch system outside Verbove, means they are maneuvering around fixed fortifications blocking the more direct route to Tokmak. Its good to see, if they feel comfortable doing so and continue to do this we'll see just how brittle the russians are in truth,

 
Other end of the technology spectrum…

I hope Ukraine starts flying dozens of dirt cheap, un-navigated, low-tech fake drones all over Moscow and sensitive places in Russia just to waste the Russian’s time pointlessly shooting harmless things down with expensive missiles.

Should be an excellent ROI.
Many benefits for low budget/massively produced/deployed Ukranian drones. They shut down Russian airports daily out of fears air defense might shoot down their own civilian planes. There are only so many air defense systems to go around. Spread them all throughout the western half of Russia and there are fewer to deploy to the front lines.
 
Since someone posted a link several days ago, I've been reading the daily war reports on the Institute for the Study of War website. Good info.
 
The Russian supply situation in the south is in a lot of trouble.
Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think

And they just put more load on the system moving in another division
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
Rare but I am in agreement on his big point, lateral reinforcement is going to slow down supply to other units. For the HIMARS to realistically move into firing position that inhibits the coastal route they need the front to be 15km further forward still.

Andrew has a map feature that lets you do your own range circles or measure distances, he keeps it updated with events. Lots of maps out there but this is a useful feature and his mapping isn't bad.

 
Kupiansk sector, which is apparently where Russia has withdrawn its VDV troops from to send them down to Robotdyne area


Refugee / asylum issues in western Europe (Russia has weaponised Europol / Interpol arrest warrants)

Refugee wins last-minute extradition reprieve after trying to return from holiday

Rare but I am in agreement on his big point, lateral reinforcement is going to slow down supply to other units. For the HIMARS to realistically move into firing position that inhibits the coastal route they need the front to be 15km further forward still.

Andrew has a map feature that lets you do your own range circles or measure distances, he keeps it updated with events. Lots of maps out there but this is a useful feature and his mapping isn't bad.


Driving SE from Robotdyne/Verbove area is shortest path to close on the M14 coastal highway. Whether that is what they will do is up to them as there are many other factors. Best luck.
 
Ukraine-Moldova

Ukraine-Poland
 
US has a new medium tank coming out in the next few years. The M10 Booker will be lighter, more efficient and easier to transport then the M1A2.
Another "armored vehicle" for the US Army with Marine Corps eliminating tanks & going HIMARS & Drones.

I like the overall balance for the US Military but think the Marines have smartly transitioned.
 
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