Yeah and Sweden is pretty vulnerable to sabotage if a war would happen with a few long major power lines going through the country that could easily be taken out. And shutting down the functioning nuclear power plants in the south didn't help either.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
The lack of news from some of the front for the last 3 days is quite interesting. In fact this is the most interesting thing I've seen in a while, Ukraine preparing to exploit openings?
@petit_bateau I think you have to take every posts from Noel with a bit of a grain of salt. He's often posted just wrong info. Is that a challenger? No idea, was it in the south, no idea. He posted about some trenchline a day or two ago and the picture was the wrong province and from spring.
Re tanks: Of course it could mean they moved the tank company with Challengers to the south.
@petit_bateau I think you have to take every posts from Noel with a bit of a grain of salt. He's often posted just wrong info. Is that a challenger? No idea, was it in the south, no idea. He posted about some trenchline a day or two ago and the picture was the wrong province and from spring.
Re tanks: Of course it could mean they moved the tank company with Challengers to the south.
New artillery loss record for russia
petit_bateau
Active Member
I didn't realise the original source was Noel re the Challenger. But you are right, they may have relocated all of them. I guess it will become apparent in due course.
This article is pretty comprehensive and very fair I thought. Thus far Russia has been able to hit the reset button in geographic terms. It remains to be seen whether the cumulative losses will allow Ukraine to push beyond that critical reset rate. There has been a pause&resupply/consolidate/try-again cycle thus far and the news flow of any advances has typically come out in the pause/resupply phase so news has tended to be about a half-cycle behind progress. At least that has been my impression.
Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months - War on the Rocks
One of the interesting things about that recent Ka52 loss was that it was over the Azov Sea. Almost as if there is rotation going on from the Russian shore to forward bases for deployment cycles. As if the Russians were doing crew rest and maintenance cycles on the east shore now, rather than the west shore. If so that reduces the effective force that can be operating at any one time.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
I saw a couple of pieces on returning fighters being beaten or killed. I took that more as a reflection of the quality of person being dealt with by the population (the criminals acting like criminals when they return syndrome) than the population reacting to a well behaving war veteran returning home.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Ugh, another Putin stooge inbound
www.theguardian.com
With one stroke, Slovakia could soon become Russia’s newest ally | John Kampfner
Robert Fico, the former PM who showers praise on Moscow and models himself on Viktor Orbán, is leading the polls for the coming elections, says documentary-maker John Kampfner
www.theguardian.com
Some difficult reading
(what on earth is a single Challenger 2 doing in Robotdyne area, they are apparently all up north so seeing one down south in a solo manner is most odd)
Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive
Russian defences and military adaptations pose challenges for Ukraine's 2023 offensive.rusi.org
Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months - War on the Rocks
On June 4, Ukraine launched its long-awaited offensive. The operation has proven to be a test of Ukrainian determination and adaptation. Despite stiffwarontherocks.com
Hard to say what those tanks were. There were two tanks that didn't look Russian, that's about all I can say about it. One looked like it was in pretty bad shape, on fire, but the other one only looked disabled, if it wasn't just stopped on the road for some other reason (like the crew was taking a break).
There was one at least one other Challenger destroyed in Iraq from friendly fire.
Western armies haven't faced a near peer adversary in a very long time. Parts of the air war in Korea had USAF Sabre pilots dueling with Russians, but most of the wars western armies have fought in the last 80 years have been against opponents who might be able to carry out an insurgency and bleed the invader to a point of retreat, but in a straight up fight, the enemy was always over matched.
At least one Challenger and some Abrams were lost to friendly fire because the enemy didn't really have much anti-tank capability that was up to the fight. The US sliced through a field of T-55s and T-72s in the first Gulf War. It was a lopsided fight, the Iraqis lost 186 tanks and I don't think they hit a single US tank. All the US losses were due to friendly fire.
Ukraine is the better army, but this is the closest to a near peer fight with the active service NATO weaponry since NATO was founded. Russia has the ability to knock out western supplied vehicles and they have been doing so.
We don't know how that tank was knocked out. It could have been artillery, running over an anti-tank mine that went off under a critical area, an ATGM, or something else.
The Ukrainian government is pretty good on getting people to shut up when they are about to make a big move.
That's isn't an all time high. The Ukrainians claimed 44 on June 23, but that is one of the biggest hauls.
Tracking Russia's losses in Ukraine
Push Russia to gun exhaustion and that will put them in a very difficult position. Their artillery arm has been the most effective in this war.
The Ka52 fleet is also probably facing a lot of maintenance challenges at this point. There is evidence the Russians have been stripping some airframes to keep others flying. Rotor blades are particularly hard to come by. There have been pictures of Ka52 with the rotors removed.
I don't know if the Ka52 that went down over the Azov was eastbound or westbound. If eastbound it may have been sent to the rear because it was showing signs of battle fatigue and needed some repairs, and the fatigue led to failure over the sea. If westbound it could have been due to faulty repairs.
Interesting if true that Ukraine captured this fortified position between Robotyne and Tokmak. This was the most formidable fortified area left. It also commanded heights on the ridge leading out of Robotyne towards Tokmak. I apologize, again, to all for my terrible spelling. I can't spell in my native language either it's just that spell check is my friend.
This fort was specifically mentioned in a great post we put up by Dan or Brady a week or so ago (either I posted it or someone else). Anyway, they had quite the comprehensive breakdown on the fort, communication lines, ATG positions, covered areas, etc. If the VDV lost that position they are brittle indeed.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Do they mean this location ? Between Robotdyne and Novoprokopivka. Personally I cannot identify it very well as the field patterns and track/roads don't match the photo you posted.
If so there is a pretty significant triple trench line on the south side of Novoprokopivka, as well as the village of Novo... itself. That triple trench line (inc AT ditch) is the one that UA is supposed to have penetrated a few km to the East near Verbove.
Or is it somewhere else ? I've put the map link below so you can look yourself.
Yes that is the one. I will see if I can find the exact link on the fortifications, Brady or Dan or Rob lee or someone did it and it was very well done. They used that fortification as an example of the significant issues advancing straight out of Robotyne. Thus, they thought a move to Verbove was a better choice and lo and behold that's where the UAF went. The other lines were not as well constructed but they thought this fort was going to be tough. Ukraine pounded it all last week.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Most likely a confirmation of the effectiveness of drone strikes against TU-22M3 airfields. Absolute bonkers not to have those assets in revetments. What, do their Air staff believe their own reports to Moscow?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
So far, the vast majority of the dying has been done by conscripts collected from the hinterland. We'll see how popular the war remains in 'White Russia' after the next round of 200K conscripts starts sending their sons to the meat grinder in Southern Ukraine.
I am not making assumptions from just 2 people. While I am an American, born and raised in the US, I lived in Russia, went to school there, and still have a large network of friends there. My wife is from Ukraine, and the family that isn't in Ukraine lives in Belarus and Crimea.
My ex was Armenian but lived in Ukraine her entire life and her family business was quite successful there. I've known here and her family from probably 20 years. What was remarkable about her accounts when moving to Russia, which she never showed any interest in before, was how much better she said it was than when she was living in Ukraine. Everything cheaper, more jobs available for her husband, salaries were better, flats were nicer and so on.
As for comms being monitored, we used whatsapp to communicate. I tend to use encrypted methods of comms in general given my educational background and the industries I've worked in.
petit_bateau
Active Member
petit_bateau
Active Member
The Kofman & Lee article is now getting disseminated via mainstream media
Ukraine’s slow progress piles pressure on west to keep up supply of weapons
Kyiv’s counteroffensive slog means war is far from over – and Moscow still has chance of succeeding in its revised aims
www.theguardian.com
Someone had asked what accounts to follow and in the replies are many more .
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@petit_bateau
Ok, I think if you follow these links around you'll find it. Maybe black bird group did the first, Tatarigami did a follow-on.
threadreaderapp.com
And here is the exact tweet
Ok, I think if you follow these links around you'll find it. Maybe black bird group did the first, Tatarigami did a follow-on.
Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App
@Tatarigami_UA: Impressive thread was done by the @Black_BirdGroup about defenses in the south. In relation to this subject, I'd like to add additional insights and context. My intention is not to critique their pre...…
threadreaderapp.com
And here is the exact tweet
@petit_bateau I think I actually posted it, not someone else so maybe that's why I remembered it. Anyway, if Maks is right and he might be abusing opsec, than this is a big deal as this fort was important
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This, as much as anything, is one reason why Ukraine is not going to be allowed to close out this episode quickly. The armaments industry is slow to crank up production, and the West would be loath to cut production after a quick victory. Blood and Tribute are both required, the 'Peace Dividend' will have to wait.
I really should stop and make more useful full posts with illustrations...but I am too lazy. Ok, so Emil is one of the black bird group, Finnish open source intel guys. I love the Finns BTW, Anyway, Emil has a new post I think worth reading
To be extra clear Maks was not violating opsec he was simply stating what the Finns had already released. This progress due south is important, those forts were on a knoll, the best developed around.
To be extra clear Maks was not violating opsec he was simply stating what the Finns had already released. This progress due south is important, those forts were on a knoll, the best developed around.
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