petit_bateau
Active Member
Also Umerov is from the (prewar) opposition party to Zelensky, ie broad church united continues.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Ukraine will become the first country with a Jewish president and Muslim defense minister. Only Russia is the nation needing to be "de-nazified".
These two are worth the read
Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months - War on the Rocks
On June 4, Ukraine launched its long-awaited offensive. The operation has proven to be a test of Ukrainian determination and adaptation. Despite stiff
warontherocks.com
BitJam
Active Member
Another excellent hour-long summary of the war by Richard Iron. These may be coming out every three months. This one is a week old so was given before Ukraine breached the Surovikin line. Much of the information has already been covered in this thread but it's good to have it consolidated and presented by a well respected source.
A Strategic Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War
Some of the key points:
A Strategic Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War
Some of the key points:
- It's unlikely that either side will be willing to negotiate
- so this war will grind on
- We do not negotiate with people like Putin who have been indicted for war crimes
- Putin is an international pariah
- Elite fracture is the most common way for autocracies like Russia to fail
- Putin may be given impromptu flying lessons out of a high window
- or his plane may be shot down out of the sky
- Ukraine needs F-16s now but the promise of them next year sends a clear message to Putin that time is not on his side
- Ukraine needs to cut the land bridge
- Putin's only hope is for a pro-Russia administration to be elected in the US
- Calls for peace now or land for peace reflect pro-Putin propaganda
- Ukrainians are united in wanting to oust Russia from all their land
- There is little actual support for the war in Russia
- Very few Russians opposed Prigozhin's coup
- Once anyone replaces Putin, they will most likely end the war and blame everything on Putin
The last three points may reflect optimism rather that objective analysis. There are hardliners near the center of power who would choose to push the war harder. Russian troops chose not to fire on Prig's soldiers (don't want to fight Russians; and we don't want to shoot because who knows who will prevail; and I don't want to get shot), but public opinion of Prig is something different. I believe it was and is mixed. I believe most Russians now see the invasion as a mistake, but that doesn't mean they don't support the war due to sunk cost thinking.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I believe support among Russians for the war is and has always been low. Regardless... It's impossible to know what kind of pro-war support there really is.
But the Russian Dictator's hold on power obviously still exists. He has obviously managed to create a very robust system for oppression.
It would be great to see more Russian pilots defecting to Ukraine with their aircraft like this MI-8 helicopter pilot did recently. That sort of thing has got to give ol' Putie fits.
I was shocked at how many of my Russian friends that I've known for 20-30 years actually supported the war at first. An ex of mine, from Ukraine, but Armenian, ultimately married a Russian/Ukrainian (parents were split) and then they moved to Canada. Two months before the war, for some reason they moved to Russia and were happy as heck when the war started. I was in utter shock to put it mildly.
As I mentioned upstream, Russia did quite a good job of controlling info into the country. So even people that I thought were fairly well informed weren't really aware of the atrocities going and what such bull crap Putin was spewing. The problem was, a little truth in the lies goes a long way. A perfect example is using the Azov Brigade as evidence of Nazis in Ukraine. Yes they were neo-Nazi groups. There also a lot of right-wing groups in Russia as well.
I remember being in St. Peterburg, and the skinheads would get on and start beating the crap out of anyone not white who was on the metro. They were covered in swastikas and other Nazi symbolism. So if Putin was worried about Nazis, he should have started at home, in the city where he rose to power. So, the little truth in the lie made it very easy to swallow for many Russians.
Now, many Russians have realized the war is a mistake. Now it is too late to really do anything about it, not that they had much say. Even though they realize it is a mistake now, they sure as hell don't want Russia to lose either. They are a proud people and their ability to endure suffering would send many Americans run crying to their safe spaces. I was always amazed when living there with what crap the average Russia was willing to endure on a daily basis and just get on with their lives.
I wouldn't underestimate the Russian people's will to hang in there even if it looks like there is no end. They've endured some horrendous wars and leaders and somehow survived. They are a very proud people at their core.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
No offense, but you're making quite a lot of assumptions from just two people. Your ex – what ethnicity is she? Russian or Armenian? Does she have any links to power structures inside of Russia? Could they have been on assignment from Russian intelligence in Canada? Or perhaps they just didn't want to risk anything if Russian intelligence were monitoring their communications when you were communicating with one(?) of them about the war...
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Don’t think I’ve heard about stuff like this before… Would be interesting to know more details about these alleged cases and others like them.
Rush transcript from 4:03 in the vid below:
”…] Today, Russian sources reported that the number of assaults on the veterans of the so-called special military operation is increasing.
Today, a soldier on vacation in Rostov was shot 12 times in the street after locals found out that he fought in Ukraine.
Several weeks ago, locals tracked down and beaten to death 2 Wagner soldiers. Around the same time, someone from Chelyabinsk killed another veteran. And during the last week of August, several people used metal bars to beat a veteran from Sharypovo.
Such cases are becoming more and more common and may represent a growing societal discontent, however, these cases do not get much attention in the Russian media space. […”
Rush transcript from 4:03 in the vid below:
”…] Today, Russian sources reported that the number of assaults on the veterans of the so-called special military operation is increasing.
Today, a soldier on vacation in Rostov was shot 12 times in the street after locals found out that he fought in Ukraine.
Several weeks ago, locals tracked down and beaten to death 2 Wagner soldiers. Around the same time, someone from Chelyabinsk killed another veteran. And during the last week of August, several people used metal bars to beat a veteran from Sharypovo.
Such cases are becoming more and more common and may represent a growing societal discontent, however, these cases do not get much attention in the Russian media space. […”
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
More that suggests a low Russian support for the Russian Dictator's war:
"
Sat 2 Sep 2023 12.50 BST
[...]
In two hours of screen time, the film covers a wide spectrum of falsehoods that the Kremlin has used to justify its invasion of Ukraine. [...]
The Witness is a box-office flop. Set to a budget of 200 million roubles (£1.5m), it has grossed less than 14 million roubles (£110,000) in its first two weeks, with viewers across the country reporting empty cinema halls. [...
"
www.theguardian.com
But even an article like this contains Russian propaganda:...
"
...] Opinion polls have consistently shown that many in Russia have preferred to turn a blind eye to the war in Ukraine. According to a poll published last month by the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent pollster, a record 40% of Russians said they do not actively follow the events in Ukraine, while only 23% of respondents said they “closely followed” the fighting. [...
"
There is no independent media inside of Russia today! None! And yet the Guardian somehow thinks that there are independent pollsters(!)... I mean – What the actual fudge!...
"
Kremlin’s propaganda film about Ukraine war plays to empty cinemas
The box-office flop, about a fictional violinist who gets caught up in the atrocities, is further evidence that Russians want to forget about the invasionSat 2 Sep 2023 12.50 BST
[...]
In two hours of screen time, the film covers a wide spectrum of falsehoods that the Kremlin has used to justify its invasion of Ukraine. [...]
The Witness is a box-office flop. Set to a budget of 200 million roubles (£1.5m), it has grossed less than 14 million roubles (£110,000) in its first two weeks, with viewers across the country reporting empty cinema halls. [...
"
Kremlin’s propaganda film about Ukraine war plays to empty cinemas
The box-office flop, about a fictional violinist who gets caught up in the atrocities, is further evidence that Russians want to forget about the invasion
www.theguardian.com
But even an article like this contains Russian propaganda:...
"
...] Opinion polls have consistently shown that many in Russia have preferred to turn a blind eye to the war in Ukraine. According to a poll published last month by the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent pollster, a record 40% of Russians said they do not actively follow the events in Ukraine, while only 23% of respondents said they “closely followed” the fighting. [...
"
There is no independent media inside of Russia today! None! And yet the Guardian somehow thinks that there are independent pollsters(!)... I mean – What the actual fudge!...
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BitJam
Active Member
Richard Iron does not seem like a person who is prone to wishful thinking. But he is one of the world's leading experts on how wars end.
Sure, they advocate for this when they are not the ones in charge but that does not mean they would pursue those policies if they were suddenly thrust into leadership. New leaders would come from the elites and they are not in an information vacuum. They all know the war is basically unwinnable. Even Putin knows this barring a Deus ex Machina in the next American presidential election. They all know the war has been devastating for Russia.
If Putin gets deposed or offed soon, it will be because of this war. There is not some large uncommitted reserve of Russian military resources to turn the war in their favor. Iron said that Russia sorely needs a new mass mobilization just to keep up their defense but Putin is afraid to do it because it would further alienate the population. There is no way a new leader would tie themselves to this anchor unless it was part of a death wish.
It should be no surprise that the actions of the Russian elites don't match their rhetoric. It's their standard operating procedure.
This is exactly what Iron said! The Russian people are agnostic about who will be in charge so they didn't resist the coup because they didn't know or care about who would win. The response in Ukraine to being invaded was vastly different. You had grandmothers making Molotov cocktails and one even downed a Russian drone with a jar of tomatoes. They were not standing back idly in case Russia might win. They resisted.
Almost all the Russian experts, including Iron, tell us that Putin ruled by keeping the Russian people feeling powerless and uninterested in politics. He purposely kept them agnostic about politics. This worked well for 20 years but the downside now is there is little heartfelt support for Putin or his war. There aren't big grassroots rallies in support of the war like the rallies around the world in support of Ukraine. In Russia it is still illegal to even say this is a war.
Yes, Russian controlled media would make us think that most Russians are 100% behind the war but what is put on Russian media often does not reflect reality.
Recently we were in a city on the Danube River south of Munich. One of the main power plants had been shut down due the cost of Natural Gas. The locals seemed to take it all in stride.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
There are no power outages in Europe. The entire European grid is interconected. And if I'm not mistaken, the European Methane/NG storage facilities are more than 90% full. So Europe should be able to handle this winter just fine.
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There are limits to how much power can be transported between countries and even between regions of individual countries. Northern Sweden produces a lot of excess energy and has low prices while southern Swedish sometime sees very high prices but still has to export to Europe(by EU law), but there is not enough capacity to transport all the northern energy south. Like Elon has said and MPP3 outlines, we will need to improve the energy infrastructure.
As long as you have a free market there seldom are power outages, but prices can go so high that some industries become uncompetitive with US/China.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Hasn't Sweden long neglected to build sufficient energy transport capacity between the northern and southern part?... But sure – I'm only a layman on this stuff.
While I don't follow it closely, the few videos I have seen of Russian life is that it is remarkably unchanged from prior to the start of the war (unless they are traveling or doing business outside the country) and that many still don't really think about the war much at all. Nationalised companies and increased imports from China seem to have replaced the goods and services halted by western sanctions.
Presumably that will change if Ukraine can keep lobbing rockets and drones into Russia.
I read over a year ago that the meaning of "Nazi" in Russia and the west are somewhat different. In the west it refers to a specific political ideology that took hold in Germany after WW I and contributed to WW II. It still exists in small numbers in many western countries, but it's been pretty much discredited as part of the lunatic fringe by most people.
In Russia it's used as a slang term for an enemy of Russia.
I have observed that the Russian people will put up with amazing hardship in war if they win. If they lose, they are not kind to the government. Since the Crimean War any time they lost a war there was some kind of uprising.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Some difficult reading
(what on earth is a single Challenger 2 doing in Robotdyne area, they are apparently all up north so seeing one down south in a solo manner is most odd)
rusi.org
(what on earth is a single Challenger 2 doing in Robotdyne area, they are apparently all up north so seeing one down south in a solo manner is most odd)
Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive
Russian defences and military adaptations pose challenges for Ukraine's 2023 offensive.
rusi.org
Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months - War on the Rocks
On June 4, Ukraine launched its long-awaited offensive. The operation has proven to be a test of Ukrainian determination and adaptation. Despite stiff
warontherocks.com
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