An interesting thread by a very good analyst on russian tank refurbishment. Deep Dive
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
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petit_bateau
Active Member
Those links are helpful, thanks. I now realise I'd read them before, but had previously thought "let's see".
Reading them again, especially this one from 4-Sep it is unclear to me whether UA has fully taken that complex. Do you have reason to think that it is now fully in UA hands ?
Yes, not absolutely clear but this is what maks and others referred to and it is the fortification . We’ll know for sure in 48 hours.
On need for more used trucks to evacuate wounded
petit_bateau
Active Member
ZNPP update
world-nuclear-news.org
Russia oil cap stays
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/2XCBHBJ3XZMO5PUXQPFDHH75ZY.jpg)
www.reuters.com
Grossi stresses importance of IAEA presence at Zaporizhzhia : Regulation & Safety - World Nuclear News
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi says that the arrival of its experts at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant a year ago was "crucial" and their presence continues to be of "paramount importance".
Russia oil cap stays
G7 shelves regular Russian oil cap reviews as prices soar - sources
The G7 and allies have shelved regular reviews of the Russian oil price cap scheme, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, even though most Russian crude is trading above the limit because of a rally in global crude prices.
www.reuters.com
So Blinken is in Kiev and...suddenly the wife of the Armenian president shows up in Kiev too. Blinken is,btw, responsible for the disastrous treaties that encouraged Ukraine to give up weapons in return for a guarantee of safety from the west. Now after an even more embarrassing and disastrous Obama administration followed by Trump he's trying make amends.
So the wife of Armenia is in town, Azerbijan is sending troops to border with Armenia and Russia is not guaranteeing safety. Azerbaijan being a proxy for Turkey. Edogran just met with Putin. Armenia is just F'd. Just F'd. @DayTrippin might have insight there but gosh it looks like we could see a second genocide.
So the wife of Armenia is in town, Azerbijan is sending troops to border with Armenia and Russia is not guaranteeing safety. Azerbaijan being a proxy for Turkey. Edogran just met with Putin. Armenia is just F'd. Just F'd. @DayTrippin might have insight there but gosh it looks like we could see a second genocide.
This article had a lot of interesting points.
It is indeed an excellent read.
Time and Money: those are Putin’s nemeses, and an important insight. Baer’s monetary proposal, to use the $300 billion of Russian foreign reserves to
Tick Tock Tick Tock
emplace, each month, Tick Tock Tick Tock $20 billion into a Ukrainian Redevelopment Fund, is a masterly way to use those nemeses.
On edit, to further discussion: one* would not (*even a Putin, I assert) go to the nuclear route over $20 billion, but - month after month after month and knowing that as far out as the calendar goes, so goes another $20 billion - that is an immensely powerful force.
Time and Money: those are Putin’s nemeses, and an important insight. Baer’s monetary proposal, to use the $300 billion of Russian foreign reserves to
Tick Tock Tick Tock
emplace, each month, Tick Tock Tick Tock $20 billion into a Ukrainian Redevelopment Fund, is a masterly way to use those nemeses.
On edit, to further discussion: one* would not (*even a Putin, I assert) go to the nuclear route over $20 billion, but - month after month after month and knowing that as far out as the calendar goes, so goes another $20 billion - that is an immensely powerful force.
Russia’s big rate hike last month didn’t last too long, almost back to 100 Rubles to the Dollar again.
Was just going to post this. Getting close to that 100 rubles to a dollar psychological threshold that it seems they would prefer to keep it below.
BitJam
Active Member
Thanks for the good news!
It appears that Jake Broe's prediction back in early April that the ruble will continue to tumble is panning out.
The title of the video said the ruble was down 34% in 4 months. Jake also references his previous video from last summer: why is the Russian ruble so strong right now? where he explains why the Russian economy is screwed despite the propped up ruble.
Sure, the time scale you use to look at a price can change the picture immensely (see: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable). Jake zoomed out and looked over the past 19 years which shows the ruble was relatively stable until 2014 when sanctions in response to the illegal annexation of Crimea kicked in and the ruble lost about half its value. Then there was a huge drop right after the 2022 war started but, as explained in Jake's previous video, Putin bolstered the ruble short term. It has now fallen to its pre-war value.
Jake then explains why he thinks the ruble will continue to fall. Russia propped up their currency by, among other things, buying back rubles with foreign reserves. Their limited supply of foreign cash is running out so the devaluation due to the new sanctions is starting to kick in. Even if you don't view this rapid drop in value as a collapse, @madodel's observation seems accurate; the mirage of a stable ruble is collapsing.
Jake then references this article Russia’s Finance Ministry reports first quarter budget deficit of 2.4 trillion rubles which says they have already used up 82% of their allotted yearly deficit for 2023 in just the first quarter primarily due to gas and oil revenues being down 45% compared to the same period the last year. He then covers the large emigration out of Russia, noting that the people Russia needs most to keep their economy going are the ones who are fleeing.
Before this war started, Jake covered finance and investing. He may not be the world's top expert but he's not pulling his coverage of the ruble from out of his hat. IIRC there was a lot of angst (and joy) about the sanctions not working as evidenced by the strong ruble. Jake provides context that shows the sanctions are working and this is now reflected in a weakening of the ruble after Russia pulled out all the stops to prop it up.
Here is one of the sources he used to make that prediction:
Russia’s Finance Ministry reports first quarter budget deficit of 2.4 trillion rubles
Russia’s Finance Ministry reports first quarter budget deficit of 2.4 trillion rubles — Meduza
According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance, Russia’s federal budget for January–March saw a deficit of 2.4 trillion rubles ($29.5 billion). Legally, the 2023 budget is allowed a deficit of 2.93 trillion rubles ($35.9 billion).
Sure, Russia's economy probably won't collapse anytime soon but this is certainly not good news for Putin. Yet, if we're really lucky maybe Luna-25 won't be the only Russian thing that crashed in 2023. In any case, I hope the weak ruble will contribute to the end of Putin's ignominious war in Ukraine via death by a dozen cuts.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
16 dead and 31 injured as of approximately five hours ago in this the latest of the Russian Dictator's Terrorist attacks. The search and rescue operation was ongoing, with people remaining under the rubble, so those numbers could rise even further.
www.ukrinform.net
Injury toll in missile strike on Kostiantynivka rises to 31
The number of those injured in a Russian missile strike on a market in the city of Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region, has increased to 31, and there are still people under the rubble. â Ukrinform.
www.ukrinform.net
@DayTrippin posted the foreign affairs article that said Putin would do exactly this, terror and war crimes in lieu of being able to defeat on battlefield
Any cornered animal is very dangerous. Likely to get even worse if Putin does have a serious health issue. He personally doesn't have much to lose.
BitJam
Active Member
Vladimir Putin and the Parable of the ‘Cornered Rat’
Vladimir Putin and the Parable of the ‘Cornered Rat’
We may be getting the moral of the Russian leader’s childhood story all wrong.
www.theatlantic.com
Rarely have so few, seemingly inconsequential words generated so many consequential ones.
In a mere 109-word paragraph tucked away in an autobiographical collection of interviews published in 2000, just as he ascended to power in Russia, Vladimir Putin tells a nightmarish tale: Once, when he and his friends were chasing rats with sticks in the dilapidated apartment building in St. Petersburg where he grew up, a “huge rat” he’d cornered suddenly “lashed around and threw itself at” him, chasing the “surprised and frightened” Putin to his door before he slammed it shut in the rodent’s face. For Putin, it’s a parable: “I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word cornered.”
[...] In other words, to manage the risk of nuclear escalation with Russia, they shouldn’t dismiss offhand the man who once saw in a cornered rat a warning about the dangers of desperation. But they should nevertheless appeal to the survival instincts of the boy with the stick who, when faced with those dangers, decided to run for it.
Re-liberating Crimea is personal for the incoming Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Rustem Umerov:
RobStark
Well-Known Member
He could just take the easy way out to where he belongs. But evil people never want to make it easy for anyone else. So he will remain a threat as long as he's alive. Any guesses on what Hitler would have done if they had enough uranium for a bomb?
Yeah but all that vodka.
I was a tad leery at that presentation, and found my suspicions justified. From data.worldbank.org 2022 GDP.
Rounded to the nearest billion US$, we have:
Netherlands: $991 bn, Belgium: $579bn
to total $1,570 bn
Yes! There was no justification for including Luxembourg in that map.
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