Russia/Ukraine conflict

[BitJam]

Ukraine War: 'Massive wave' of missile and drone attacks in Lviv

Russia is trying to hinder/destroy aid from the West. Lviv is well back from the front lines and has been used as a hub for supplies from the West.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Point of Personal Preference

I keep reading in varied posts “mobik”. Is this a genuine term, or a collective fat-fingering for “mobile” amongst some posters?

mobik (plural mobiks) (informal, derogatory, military) A Russian conscript during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, especially a young man with little to no fighting experience.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Opportunism.

Not sure Russia flipped sides. However, Russian “peacekeepers” have been there since 2020. Azerbaijan correctly estimated the calculated risk that Russia would not intervene on Armenia’s behalf, as they were expected to before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Azerbaijan noticed the same thing everyone else did – Russia has been pulling out soldiers and materials from all over their periphery to bring into occupied Ukraine to sustain their failing war.

Probably another consideration for Azerbaijan- if Russia doesn’t have to respect a neighbor’s sovereignty, why do they?…

Mu guess would be that Azerbaijan has cleared this with the Russian Dictator in advance.

 

[BitJam]

Great 5 minute speech on Ukraine by General Mark Milley prior to his retirement.

Hear Top US general's assessment of Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia

The last 5 minutes is Q&A which IMO is much better than the prepared speech because his passion shines through.

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When Ukraine is a free and sovereign country with their territory intact, that is when the war will end.​

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[...] The Ukrainian people have been free and independent since 1991. [...] Russia has made one of the greatest strategic errors [they] have ever made. They've invaded a country that has been free and independent and that country's not going to quit until they too are free and independent once again.​

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[...] there is no intention by the Ukrainians to stop fighting during the winter. They have the strategic initiative right now. And the intend to [keep fighting] until their end state is achieved. ​

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[...] For the critics who are out there, there is plenty of fighting weather left, there is plenty of combat power remaining and the Ukrainians have absolute no intent to stop.​

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[...] I regularly speak to General Zaluzhnyi one or two times per week. [...] there is a lot of consultation at the tactical and the operational and strategic levels.​

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[...] Slava Ukraini! [from the end of his prepared speech]​

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[iPlug]

Military Analyst, Capt. Anders Puck Nielsen of the Royal Danish Defense College does the back-of-the-envelope math on:
"Is Ukraine running out of soldiers?"

Spoiler: No

 

[EatsShoots]

I am confident that is yet another lie about Musk. These lies have spread like wildfire. Believe it or not his biographer, Isaacson, repeated a similar lie during an MSNBC interview and had to be corrected.

I've been following the controversy closely. AFAIK, Musk never withdrew Starlink coverage for Ukraine and never threatened to withdraw it. His great "sin" was that when a low level underling he never heard of asked him to extend coverage to Crimea, he said no. Of course when Musk tried to get out of the control loop by asking for a contract with the Pentagon, he was harshly criticized and a bunch of lies about him threatening to take away Starlink from Ukraine were spread.

With all the people who have been lying about Starlink in Ukraine in order to smear Musk, if there was actual proof of something like what your friend claims then it would not be hard to find. I could not find any well before Isaacson hit the air waves. Some of my friends asked me about it last year when the lies about Musk threatening to cut off Starlink were spread so I tried to dig down and make sure what I told my friends was true.

This is a classic technique from political fighting: attack your opponent's strength. Elon should be hailed as a hero for providing Starlink to Ukraine so quickly. Unfortunately, a bunch of lies and innuendo have made him into a villain for it. My heart breaks a little because Musk and others may now have to think twice before rushing in to help people in need. We should praise people when they do good and criticize them when they do bad. Not the other way around as we see here.

[Sorry for the repetition. If false claims and innuendo are not debunked then they just fuel the spread of lies.]

To be clear, I don’t like musk as a person. I have very negative things to say about him, but I think you’re right—this has been horrendously covered by lazy news publications and the truth is less exciting and exonerates musk in this particular matter. I’ve seen analysis by somebody else who appeared quite well informed who undermined all the shallow reporting on the topic.

As for Ukraine I already emailed my state senators, asking them to increase support. I’ve given a few donations over the past 18 months. It’s rare that the world is given such a clear moral direction as this one. I cannot document my views here of russia without at the very least having my post deleted.

 

[wdolson]

Other than the geographic isolation from the rest of Russia, being surrounded by EU territory, and uprising against Moscow in 2010, the people of Kaliningrad/Konigsberg have been hit very hard in the wallet by sanctions. Tourism was a big part of the economy prior to the war. Those tourists not only brought their money, but also Western ideals.

Russia’s regions face the war economy – GIS Reports

Western sanctions, fluid energy markets and the demands of war have affected Russia’s diverse regions in different ways.

www.gisreportsonline.com

I wasn't aware the oblast had ever rebelled against Moscow.

From my perspective, a breakaway Siberian region* is as unlikely and as doomed as would be Alaska, Yukon, NWTerritory or Nunavut. We all are absolutely dependent on the largesse of D.C., Ottawa or Moscow and no one responsible has any illusions otherwise.

*I don’t believe the OP was suggesting Siberia, rather just throwing out “another part of Russia”. All this is separate from any discussion regarding Chinese adventurism to their north.

The Siberian regions in the south all border countries that would probably ally with them if they didn't take them in entirely. The northern parts of Siberia are mostly thinly populated and are pretty much under tight control from Moscow without the resources or population to break away unless they joined some other breakaway region after they had succeeded. I believe the two red dots in the middle of Siberia are resource extraction cities.

Here is a population density map of Russia

https://imgur.com/cPHjmXB

The areas around the Chinese border and the border of the former Soviet republics that are now the "stans" has most of the population in the eastern 2/3 of the country. The legend appears to be people per Km^2.

The Muslim parts of the country have a ready cultural identity they can drop into if they reject Moscow and start looking for something else. Islam provides a different identity from Russian and there are already examples of other countries nearby that cropped up in 1991 when the USSR broke up.

 

[madodel]

UN Assembly: Zelenskyy accuses Russia of weaponising food, energy, children in war against Ukraine

Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for international cooperation and consensus in member states' approach to Russia.

Labelling the invading country as "terrorists," he warned that Moscow was weaponizing everything from food to energy to children in its war against Ukraine. He also called for sanctions and denuclearisation of the Russian Federation.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I wasn't aware the oblast had ever rebelled against Moscow.

Well, it was much more subdued than the Chechen rebellion, but yeah the Kaliningrad protests were notable at the time.

Kremlin shocked as Kaliningrad stages huge anti-government protest | Russia | The Guardian

amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[wdolson]

The Ukrainians have reached the main Russian defensive line. In this video a Ukrainian drone hit a Russian SP artillery piece that was trying to move. Big things about this video, the vehicle crosses a field (on fire) without hitting and mines. The crew bailed out and run away in different directions, they knew the field was not mined. An indication that the Russians may have put the bulk of the mines on the first line of defense.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704152335562252540

Russian truck tires are in bad shape

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704210032328339472

Going into winter, those trucks are going to be slipping around everywhere.

 

[nativewolf]

The Ukrainians have reached the main Russian defensive line. In this video a Ukrainian drone hit a Russian SP artillery piece that was trying to move. Big things about this video, the vehicle crosses a field (on fire) without hitting and mines. The crew bailed out and run away in different directions, they knew the field was not mined. An indication that the Russians may have put the bulk of the mines on the first line of defense.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704152335562252540

Russian truck tires are in bad shape

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704210032328339472

Going into winter, those trucks are going to be slipping around everywhere.

Very interesting pov on the crew bailing out and the SPG just rolling through the field.

RE Tires. Trent said last year that they'd run out of tires. I guess trent also probably think you needed to change oil at 2500 miles or your car engine would fail (when in reality test showed you could go 10k miles with no impact on the engine on NYC taxi fleets back in the day when they were big v8).

The truck is moving. The depots are full of trucks with broken this or that...and they have tires. When the trucks waiting for repair are being stripped of tires than you have an issue. In the winter tread really wont matter, just put some chains on them and keep driving. In the meantime while they are running out of tires and immobile...they laterally deployed multiple regiments back and forth all summer and recently moved an entire new army to Zap. But Trent thinks tires are going to stop them? SMH

 

[wdolson]

Very interesting pov on the crew bailing out and the SPG just rolling through the field.

RE Tires. Trent said last year that they'd run out of tires. I guess trent also probably think you needed to change oil at 2500 miles or your car engine would fail (when in reality test showed you could go 10k miles with no impact on the engine on NYC taxi fleets back in the day when they were big v8).

The truck is moving. The depots are full of trucks with broken this or that...and they have tires. When the trucks waiting for repair are being stripped of tires than you have an issue. In the winter tread really wont matter, just put some chains on them and keep driving. In the meantime while they are running out of tires and immobile...they laterally deployed multiple regiments back and forth all summer and recently moved an entire new army to Zap. But Trent thinks tires are going to stop them? SMH

Russians are complaining there are no replacement tires.

There was a fair bit of evidence that Russia was buying a lot of goods from China, probably including truck tires, but the amount of rail traffic along the China-Russia border has declined. Russia is showing signs of pulling in its horns with international purchasing. In the last few weeks pictures of bald Russian trick tires have been appearing, sightings of them appear to be getting common.

I'm no expert on using chains, I've only used them a few times. But chains put different stresses on a tire than rolling in direct contact with the road. I would think those stresses would not be very good on tires worn down to the point the steel belts are showing.

Considering how hard everything is to come by in the Russian army today, there is also the question if the Russians have enough chains for all their trucks.

 

[jerry33]

Russians are complaining there are no replacement tires.

There was a fair bit of evidence that Russia was buying a lot of goods from China, probably including truck tires, but the amount of rail traffic along the China-Russia border has declined. Russia is showing signs of pulling in its horns with international purchasing. In the last few weeks pictures of bald Russian trick tires have been appearing, sightings of them appear to be getting common.

I'm no expert on using chains, I've only used them a few times. But chains put different stresses on a tire than rolling in direct contact with the road. I would think those stresses would not be very good on tires worn down to the point the steel belts are showing.

Considering how hard everything is to come by in the Russian army today, there is also the question if the Russians have enough chains for all their trucks.

The main thing to know about chains is that they slow the vehicle down considerably.

 

[nativewolf]

Yes chains slow them down but provide traction, otherwise not much is moving on the secondary roads in winter. The paved primary roads are fine for just regular tires, nothing special. Once it freezes then game on, last winter it never seemed to freeze.

 

[AudubonB]

I'm not accusing - this is innocent wonder:

Do all agree that the truck tire photographs are legitimate? No clumsy photoshopping of that left-hand tire's treads? It's not the pretty uniform bullseye pattern so much as the edges of the smooth portion that caught my eye.

 

[jerry33]

I'm not accusing - this is innocent wonder:

Do all agree that the truck tire photographs are legitimate? No clumsy photoshopping of that left-hand tire's treads? It's not the pretty uniform bullseye pattern so much as the edges of the smooth portion that caught my eye.

This looks as if it's a DIY retreading job. The light colour is the adhesive layer.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Looks like a worn tire to me. The wear spots are a bit unusual, but maybe the tire was a bit out of round, or the brakes locked up, or it was dragged a bit. I think those concentric circles represent worn through plies of the tire. Probably at least a 6 ply tire.

 

[Unclepaul]

In times of War, lots of things get in short supply. Soldiers and Citizens adapt and carry on as best they can with what they have.

A major comedy theme in MASH reruns was Corp Klinger and ORiley working their contacts constantly to get supplies that were hard to get. During all wars, soldiers do not have all the ammo, transportation, food, water, latrines, sleeping quarters, communications etc that they need. The side that can solve the most logistics problems usually wins.
Classic example is how German Field Marshal Rommel, with his great strategic capabilities, superior tanks, better trained troops etc were defeated because he simply out ran his supply lines and was unable to capture enough fuel from the enemy to carry on. His tanks ground to a halt and it was over for him.

US tipped the battlefield of WWI because the industrial might of America and mass production of assembly lines, simply overwhelmed the enemy with tanks, bombers, fighters, jeeps, supply ships and aircraft carriers.

 

[madodel]

I think this information was posted before but interesting video. I understand Denmark's giving the 30 Leopard 1 tanks, but what was Denmark doing with 15 T-72s?

 

[nativewolf]

I think Denmark bought those from another country for Ukraine, say Morocco or Algeria.