Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Buckminster]

Assuming that China don't invade Taiwan in the next month, Is it safe to assume that they are unlikely to make a move in the next 5 years?

 

[nativewolf]

Still waiting on somethings but I wanted you guys to see this one: Funny and also a reminder that weather is real. Just a bit of moisture on a bridge with side slope. You can parbuckle it over and pull it right out, let it sit for a few hours so the head does not hydrolock and blow the pistons ...be good as new except for the mud. It did stop the advance. Mud is early

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711698303161614702

 

[JupiterMan]

Assuming that China don't invade Taiwan in the next month, Is it safe to assume that they are unlikely to make a move in the next 5 years?

yeah - but I would think China's window of "opportunity" is likely going to be longer than a month.

 

[wdolson]

Assuming that China don't invade Taiwan in the next month, Is it safe to assume that they are unlikely to make a move in the next 5 years?

If China makes a move on Taiwan we will have a couple of months warning. The Russians built up to invade Ukraine for almost six months.

The larger the military operation, the more build up is required. Look for Chinese warships concentrating in ports near Taiwan, especially their entire amphibious fleet. Several divisions of the army will move into the area and be set up in temporary quarters. Additionally air force units will be moving into the area.

None of these things can be cobbled together quickly. Going full throttle it would take at least two months to build up the forces to invade Taiwan and that's not happening. There are no signs of any unusual activity within the PLA.

I don't think China is ever going to risk invading Taiwan. They have a force with zero experience with amphibious operations and virtually no experience with using any of their other new equipment. With an untested army, they don't know what they don't know when they go to war. It's 100% guaranteed they will make some mistakes if they go into a full scale war and trying an amphibious operation as their first attempt at a war in over 50 years increases the risk that some of those mistakes will be catastrophic to very high probabilities.

The economic risks from an Taiwan invasion are a certainty to hurt the Chinese economy. The country is extremely dependent on international trade and if few countries want to trade with them anymore it will lead to economic ruin. that combined with a military defeat trying to capture Taiwan because they made some critical mistakes would seal Xi Jingping's fate and possibly that of the CCP too.

I think Xi is hoping China can get control of Taiwan through bluster. I don't think he's ever going to take the risk. He's not deluded about the ability to conquer his neighbor like Putin was. He also sees that the miscalculation on Putin's part is costing Russia dearly.

 

[madodel]

Because the Western Alliance can't handle more than one war at a time. /s/s/s/s

Putin banks on wavering support for Ukraine, amid a race against time

Russian President Vladimir Putin is making a slightly less ambitious forecast: If things go his way, the war can be over in a week.

 

[JupiterMan]

Finland says 'outside activity' likely damaged gas pipeline, telecoms cable

A gas pipeline and telecoms cable between Finland and Estonia under the Baltic Sea have been damaged in what may have been a deliberate act according to the Finish government.

Potentially more tinkering by Putin ahead of the winter season to unsettle peaceful democracies of Europe.... whilst the worlds eyes are elsewhere.

Hopefully Europe remains vigilant in the weeks and months ahead.

 

[wdolson]

Because the Western Alliance can't handle more than one war at a time. /s/s/s/s

Putin banks on wavering support for Ukraine, amid a race against time

In the 1940s the USSR only took on one war at a time while the UK and the US handled two full scale wars at once, and won both of them. Neither country has quite that level of capability today, but the war in Israel does not involve the US in any material way right now and it probably won't at all.

I'm sure Putin would love to see China invade Taiwan to truly distract the US, but China has done little more than sabre rattle there.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

...] Pistorius said the package covered an additional Patriot air defense missile system - which was flagged by Chancellor Olaf Scholz last week - as well as an additional IRIS-T system and Gepard anti-aircraft-gun tank.

Pistorius said that Ukrainian special forces would also be supported with vehicles, weapons as well as unspecified equipment worth more than 20 million euros to increase their capabilities.

Germany announces new defense aid for Ukraine worth $1.1 bln

Germany on Tuesday unveiled a fresh support package for Ukraine worth around 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion), its defence ministry said, adding the programme covered air defense, weapons and ground vehicles.

www.reuters.com

 

[stopcrazypp]

If China makes a move on Taiwan we will have a couple of months warning. The Russians built up to invade Ukraine for almost six months.

The larger the military operation, the more build up is required. Look for Chinese warships concentrating in ports near Taiwan, especially their entire amphibious fleet. Several divisions of the army will move into the area and be set up in temporary quarters. Additionally air force units will be moving into the area.

None of these things can be cobbled together quickly. Going full throttle it would take at least two months to build up the forces to invade Taiwan and that's not happening. There are no signs of any unusual activity within the PLA.

I don't think China is ever going to risk invading Taiwan. They have a force with zero experience with amphibious operations and virtually no experience with using any of their other new equipment. With an untested army, they don't know what they don't know when they go to war. It's 100% guaranteed they will make some mistakes if they go into a full scale war and trying an amphibious operation as their first attempt at a war in over 50 years increases the risk that some of those mistakes will be catastrophic to very high probabilities.

The economic risks from an Taiwan invasion are a certainty to hurt the Chinese economy. The country is extremely dependent on international trade and if few countries want to trade with them anymore it will lead to economic ruin. that combined with a military defeat trying to capture Taiwan because they made some critical mistakes would seal Xi Jingping's fate and possibly that of the CCP too.

I think Xi is hoping China can get control of Taiwan through bluster. I don't think he's ever going to take the risk. He's not deluded about the ability to conquer his neighbor like Putin was. He also sees that the miscalculation on Putin's part is costing Russia dearly.

Depends on what you define as "invading Taiwan".

In case people don't know, the Republic of China (the country controlling Taiwan island) also controls a bunch of islands much closer to Mainland China (Kinmen for example is right next to it and even now has a bridge connecting it).

It's possible he may try a move toward one of those, and it'll take far less effort.

List of islands of Taiwan - Wikipedia

 

[wdolson]

Depends on what you define as "invading Taiwan".

In case people don't know, the Republic of China (the country controlling Taiwan island) also controls a bunch of islands much closer to Mainland China (Kinmen for example is right next to it and even now has a bridge connecting it).

It's possible he may try a move toward one of those, and it'll take far less effort.

List of islands of Taiwan - Wikipedia

I suppose those islands could give China some bragging rights, but they don't have much economic value. Trying to take some outlying islands without taking all of Taiwan would be taking on all the economic risk of a full scale war with Taiwan without any of the real world rewards.

Taiwan has industries that China would like to control. They produce some of the highest tech electronics in the world, stuff way beyond the capabilities of mainland China.

 

[wdolson]

The Russians are either running low on artillery or they are hiding them and not using them. Gun losses the last few days have been low (scroll down in the page below). Something happened very recently though, announced losses for today:

11.10.2023

• Tanks — 4863 (+34)
• Armored fighting vehicle — 9220 (+91)
• Cannons — 6731 (+18)
• MLRS — 809 (+1)
• Anti-aircraft warfare — 545 (+1)
• Planes — 316 (+1)
• Helicopters — 316
• UAV — 5226 (+19)
• Cruise missiles — 1530
• Ships (boats) — 20
• Submarines — 1
• Cars and cisterns — 9145 (+20)
• Special equipment — 965 (+4)
• Military personnel — aprx. 283900 people (+820)

I think the Russians tried some sort of offensive action and had their backsides handed to them. 34 tanks and 91 APVs! One year ago the Russians lost 45 tanks in one day and very early in the war they lost 95 APVs in one day, but those have been outliers. The Russians have not seen armored fighting vehicle losses on that scale in a year.

Casualties of Russia in Ukraine - official data

 

[madodel]

The Russians are either running low on artillery or they are hiding them and not using them. Gun losses the last few days have been low (scroll down in the page below). Something happened very recently though, announced losses for today:

11.10.2023

• Tanks — 4863 (+34)
• Armored fighting vehicle — 9220 (+91)
• Cannons — 6731 (+18)
• MLRS — 809 (+1)
• Anti-aircraft warfare — 545 (+1)
• Planes — 316 (+1)
• Helicopters — 316
• UAV — 5226 (+19)
• Cruise missiles — 1530
• Ships (boats) — 20
• Submarines — 1
• Cars and cisterns — 9145 (+20)
• Special equipment — 965 (+4)
• Military personnel — aprx. 283900 people (+820)

I think the Russians tried some sort of offensive action and had their backsides handed to them. 34 tanks and 91 APVs! One year ago the Russians lost 45 tanks in one day and very early in the war they lost 95 APVs in one day, but those have been outliers. The Russians have not seen armored fighting vehicle losses on that scale in a year.

Casualties of Russia in Ukraine - official data

According to Denys the Ruzzians keep sending armor to attack the Avdiivka salient over the past few days and are being destroyed.

 

[wdolson]

According to Denys the Ruzzians keep sending armor to attack the Avdiivka salient over the past few days and are being destroyed.

I think that may have been the preliminary, Reporting from Ukraine appears to have an update. The Russians make a large scale attack at Avdiivka and lost.

 

[AudubonB]

If this conflict ever ends -

Five thousand tanks, plus plus plus, makes for a very nice deposit of rather high-grade iron ore.

 

[unk45]

If this conflict ever ends -

Five thousand tanks, plus plus plus, makes for a very nice deposit of rather high-grade iron ore.

Not to mention the Ukrainian farmers predilection to recycle and/or repurpose partially anything they find. recall those farm tractors pulling disabled tanks a year or so ago? They might even extract prices and sell them to raise money with they did with parts of downed MIG's a few months ago.
From childhood I recall a Ukrainian immigrant family (ok, because the eldest daughter was my first girlfriend) which acquired the odd discarded car or farm implement and restored them to working order. Frugal, they were. Poor, they were not. I learned from them.
All that captured armament must really be a treasure trove.

 

[UncaNed]

Not to mention the Ukrainian farmers predilection to recycle and/or repurpose partially anything they find. recall those farm tractors pulling disabled tanks a year or so ago? They might even extract prices and sell them to raise money with they did with parts of downed MIG's a few months ago.
From childhood I recall a Ukrainian immigrant family (ok, because the eldest daughter was my first girlfriend) which acquired the odd discarded car or farm implement and restored them to working order. Frugal, they were. Poor, they were not. I learned from them.
All that captured armament must really be a treasure trove.

I've been thinking, since the beginning of the 2022 invasion, what a productive little scrap steel industry they'll have in Ukraine, largest swords-to-plowshares conversion ever when this is all over.

Poor farmers who've suffered through hard times, and the children of depression-era farmers are some of the most creative folks around, (defining creativity as making the most of limited resources).

Agriculture can be an extremely stressful occupation; weather dependent, and with all-or-nothing high stakes, your future can be abruptly ended without notice by a simple horticultural fungus infection.

 

[iPlug]

Awaiting confirmation on the Russian patrol ship “Pavel Derzhavin” being destroyed near Sevastopol today:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1712119409538433198

 

[AudubonB]

I've been thinking, since the beginning of the 2022 invasion, what a productive little scrap steel industry they'll have in Ukraine, largest swords-to-plowshares conversion ever when this is all over.

Poor farmers who've suffered through hard times, and the children of depression-era farmers are some of the most creative folks around, (defining creativity as making the most of limited resources).

Agriculture can be an extremely stressful occupation; weather dependent, and with all-or-nothing high stakes, your future can be abruptly ended without notice by a simple horticultural fungus infection.

Yes, that is the exact point I was making, in jocular fashion.

I have a contact deeply involved in the Ukrainian steel industry. I need to learn whether there exists/-ed any electric-arc furnaces there. Those are what one uses to turn scrap steel into new ingots and billets.

A modern tank, I learned from that unimpeachable source, the internet, derives approximately 50% of its weight from its steel armor. Let's carve out another 20-25% for its weaponry, and treads, at 5-6 tons per set, another 10%. Eighty percent of a 40-50-ton older generation Soviet tank....35-40 tons x 5,000 tanks only: in the neighborhood of 200,000 tons of steel.

Gee! With that they could make, hmmm.....about 4,000 tanks! Or lots and lots of plowshares.

 

[iPlug]

Awaiting confirmation on the Russian patrol ship “Pavel Derzhavin” being destroyed near Sevastopol today:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1712119409538433198

Latest reports are that it blew up on a Russian mine on the outer roadstead of Sevastopol - just the latest of many Russian own-goals.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Not to mention the Ukrainian farmers predilection to recycle and/or repurpose partially anything they find. recall those farm tractors pulling disabled tanks a year or so ago? They might even extract prices and sell them to raise money with they did with parts of downed MIG's a few months ago.
From childhood I recall a Ukrainian immigrant family (ok, because the eldest daughter was my first girlfriend) which acquired the odd discarded car or farm implement and restored them to working order. Frugal, they were. Poor, they were not. I learned from them.
All that captured armament must really be a treasure trove.

I think universally a farmers favorite hobby is looking for bargains. My family farm had (amongst other bargains) the following when I was growing up:

• A shearing shed adapted from an old WW2 army barracks that my dad and uncles bought on the cheap, dismantled by hand, and carted back from Sydney in the 70s
• Their shooting buggy was an old Willys jeep left behind by the Americans
• The bulldozer was a D7 Cat that had been thoroughly worn out in the mines and was comically large for a farmers needs
• The front end loader was a Euclid bought on the cheap after the completion of the Snowy Hydro Scheme. Also comically large for a farmers needs.