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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Looks like we might be seeing the first of the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) missiles delivered to Ukraine within the next couple of months. In June this year, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Laura Cooper said they would arrive no earlier than autumn. On October 9th a Boeing/Saab team company official said "we’re on track to deliver in accordance with the government time line."🤞

Boeing/Saab On Track For GLSDB Fielding To Ukraine | Aviation Week Network
 
It also appear that way to me, but IMO the Russians have always been willing to throw away unsustainable (to us) casualties to make a point. Are they trying to ratchet up the pressure on the Western Ukraine support with a city/town taken _at any cost_, to generate a headline to rattle folks at this time of European war, loss of a supportive Slovak government, dysfunctional US Congress, and new Mideast conflict? Just trying to think like a Putin here (a head spinning prospect but perhaps with its own logic). Hoping the Ukranians can continue to hold, for the love of Pete, hold!
On a not unrelated note...
I'm reading "Leningrad: Siege and Symphony" (Moynahan) right now about the amazing performance of Shostakovich's 7th Symphony under brutal Nazi siege in WW2, and can hardly get to the main plot due to covering of all the Soviet secret police disappearances, suspicions, public "accusation meetings" (that was a thing, chillingly, often attended by greedy apartment brokers in the context of a city with a housing shortage and apartments about to be...emptied), unexplained night-time killings that people are afraid to mention, the systematic "conveyor belt" of nonstop interrogations, painstaking parsing of Stalin's moods and reactions (he had musical opinions which posed a great risk to composers), etc. What a truly damned place to live back then. Is it that different now? Is paranoia just so ingrained in the culture since fear and mistrust has been such a part of it at multiple times in their history?
Anyway, the story itself is pretty incredible. I will make a modern movie about it in another life.

*Edit : typos

Paranoia is deeply ingrained in Russian culture.

Putin knows that as long as the west keeps supplying Ukraine, his war is hopeless. He is pulling out all the stops to try and get the west to pull back on its commitment to Ukraine. I don't know if the handful of people causing all the chaos in the US Congress are active agents of Russia or convenient idiots, but they are willing to blow up everything to stop the flow of supplies to Ukraine. The numbers for what's been supplied to Ukraine sound large, but when compared to the overall US budget it's chicken feed. In bang for the buck value the US is degrading Russia's capability to wage war for a bargain price.

All the aid given to Ukraine to date amounts to 0.33% of the US GDP. 9% of the US defense budget, 1.2% of the overall US federal budget. What that money has done for the US is get new ammunition and other supplies into US stockpiles (the old stuff is sent to Ukraine and the US military is getting new replacements) and the arsenal of weapons and ammunition Russia inherited from the USSR and had in storage is being used up very quickly. The US and other western allies are learning valuable lessons in how modern near peer conflicts play out.

That's on top of doing the right thing helping an emerging liberal democracy protect itself from an outside invader.

The education from this war can't be underestimated. All the conflicts that western countries have been in over the last 70 years have been fairly asymmetric with the western power having vastly better capabilities than the opponent and these wars frequently devolved into insurgencies. During a large chunk of that time these armies prepared for a near peer conflict with the USSR, but it never happened. The only real world experience they could draw on was WW II, which is now technologically far behind the curve.

Western militaries now know they need to contend with a much denser drone environment than anyone ever thought would happen and they have seen Russian war doctrine in full action.

But back to the point, I think the suicidal offensive this week is a desperation move on the part of Russia. They did a lot of threatening the west the first year of the war and it had zero effect, they tried strategic missile attacks on Ukraine and it did nothing to move the needle. Now they are probably sponsering Hamas to attack Israel and trying to show the west they still have a lot of fight left in them with this ridiculous offensive, but all they are actually doing is demonstrating that they have no real offensive capability left. They are throwing away a lot of military power for nothing.
 
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How can it be that we know all about this but it wasn’t somehow stolen or blown up along the way?

Guessing...

1. Both the Military Dictatorships that are Russia and North Korea have Nuclear Weapons.
2. The containers were transported via rail through Russia, or possibly also a short distance by boat in North Korean and Russian territorial waters. That way they would not have gone through China...

So how could they have been stolen or blown up? Only UKR sabotage groups inside of Russia could have done that – or?...
 
Guessing...

1. Both the Military Dictatorships that are Russia and North Korea have Nuclear Weapons.
2. The containers were transported via rail through Russia, or possibly also a short distance by boat in North Korean and Russian territorial waters. That way they would not have gone through China...

So how could they have been stolen or blown up? Only UKR sabotage groups inside of Russia could have done that – or?...

North Korea and Russia have a land border. It's only about 9 miles long, but there is a bridge across the river called the Korea-Russia Friendship Bridge. From looking at the satellite photos it appears to be a rail bridge.

It is possible to glean records on Russian rail traffic. @petit_bateau has posted information about the China-Russia cross border rail traffic. If that can be determined via open source means, the US government has the resources to measure NK-Russia rail traffic.

North Korea–Russia border
 
How can it be that we know all about this but it wasn’t somehow stolen or blown up along the way?
Satellites. Here is a satellite map of the world. The detail available when you zoom in is amazing. Images from military satellites should be even better. But this information may not be real-time and even if it were, the US does not want to directly attack Russia (or North Korea).
 
Look at the crisp shadows in the river of the NKorea/Russia railroad bridge!

Judging from the amount of remnant snow, and where I have which heavy equipment and vehicles, I’ll say that satellite photo of my place is from early June, 2021. I wonder how many dates it took to stitch that entire globe together, and how frequently it is updated.
 
Look at the crisp shadows in the river of the NKorea/Russia railroad bridge!

Judging from the amount of remnant snow, and where I have which heavy equipment and vehicles, I’ll say that satellite photo of my place is from early June, 2021. I wonder how many dates it took to stitch that entire globe together, and how frequently it is updated.

There is somewhere where you can get the date for the satellite photos on Google Earth, but I forgot the trick to extract the date now. The photo of our house looks like late summer 2022. There is what looks like a sea of sawdust around where the tree was we took out last year and the tree is gone. At one time the satellite photo of our house had my old car that I sold in 2016 in the driveway. The satellite must have taken the picture in one of the very brief times I had the car parked in the driveway, it always lived in the garage.

The amount of satellite data available now is amazing. If you want to shell out the money you can get a satellite to do a fly over some target you want to investigate. The OSINT people have been paying for flyovers of the Russian storage facilities so they can observe how quickly Russia is removing vehicles.
 
Guessing...

1. Both the Military Dictatorships that are Russia and North Korea have Nuclear Weapons.
2. The containers were transported via rail through Russia, or possibly also a short distance by boat in North Korean and Russian territorial waters. That way they would not have gone through China...

So how could they have been stolen or blown up? Only UKR sabotage groups inside of Russia could have done that – or?...
How? I’m thinking the same way Russia’s smoking accidents happened, whatever exactly that might be.
 
The following is purportedly from a Russian blogger intended to address his domestic audience. Russia continuing to deepen the unity of the West in many ways, including militarily, is no small thing:


“The joy of some domestic propagandists that the Israeli-Palestinian confrontation will help completely deplete Western arsenals and lead to a serious reduction in supplies to Ukraine is quite naive.

Of course, because it's their work they need to look for good news or try to interpret everything that happens in the “correct” and inspiring way. But...

Most likely, Israeli events will only accelerate the already brewing decision to expand the production of everything that shoots and explodes.

Until this moment, the remilitarization of the Western economy was going shaky and slow, with the constantly maintained hope that everything that was happening was an isolated, random event that would pass, ending with peace negotiations, and it would be possible to live as before.

Israeli events clearly demonstrate that it will not be possible to live as before and crises arise unexpectedly, spontaneously, in different places, requiring more and more shells, guns and tanks. Which are already desperately lacking.

They need to be prepared for new problems, replenish empty arsenals, and have more supplies in them than were stored there in quiet and calm times.

A return not even to militarization, but to some previously abandoned norm is almost inevitable and it’s getting more and more lobbyists every day.

This means that the system will, driven by current events, sway and accelerate. Moreover, taking into account the fact that Western economies, especially together with allies like Japan and South Korea, account for much more than half of the world’s GDP, even their slight militarization will have a huge effect.

Which cannot be interrupted by any “cunning decisions” and a total transfer of the shaky Russian economy onto a war footing. 1.5% compared to 60% of the world economy - the Western card cannot be covered with any trump cards, except perhaps an atomic bomb - but then this will be the last game.

Moreover, recent events are quite clearly pushing the same Israel, which will undoubtedly win now, towards the Western pro-Ukrainian bloc; in Seoul they look with hostility at the cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang; Tokyo is gradually abolishing the remnants of self-restrictions on the development of its army and military complex.

We woke up our opponents, they noticed us - what’s next? Has it gotten any better? More fun?”


 
Biden urges Israel to follow 'rules of war'

President Joe Biden urged Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday to follow the rules of war after the Israeli prime minister vowed to destroy Hamas following the Palestinian militants' brutal attack.

The 80-year-old president, who has dispatched a US aircraft carrier to the region in a show of support for Israel, also warned Hamas-backer Iran to "be careful."
 
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G7 countries to hold frozen Russian assets until Moscow pays reparations to Ukraine

The Group of Seven (G7) nations pledged on Oct. 12 that Russian assets held in their jurisdictions, so far estimated at around $280 billion, will remain frozen until Moscow pays war reparations to Ukraine.

"We will continue our efforts to ensure that Russia pays for the long-term reconstruction of Ukraine," reads the statement of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. "We will also explore all possible avenues to aid Ukraine, consistent with our respective legal systems and international law."

The group also pledged to continue enforcing sanctions to undermine Russia's capacity to wage its brutal war against Ukraine and countering attempts to circumvent those sanctions.
 
The following is purportedly from a Russian blogger intended to address his domestic audience. Russia continuing to deepen the unity of the West in many ways, including militarily, is no small thing:


“The joy of some domestic propagandists that the Israeli-Palestinian confrontation will help completely deplete Western arsenals and lead to a serious reduction in supplies to Ukraine is quite naive.

Of course, because it's their work they need to look for good news or try to interpret everything that happens in the “correct” and inspiring way. But...

Most likely, Israeli events will only accelerate the already brewing decision to expand the production of everything that shoots and explodes.

Until this moment, the remilitarization of the Western economy was going shaky and slow, with the constantly maintained hope that everything that was happening was an isolated, random event that would pass, ending with peace negotiations, and it would be possible to live as before.

Israeli events clearly demonstrate that it will not be possible to live as before and crises arise unexpectedly, spontaneously, in different places, requiring more and more shells, guns and tanks. Which are already desperately lacking.

They need to be prepared for new problems, replenish empty arsenals, and have more supplies in them than were stored there in quiet and calm times.

A return not even to militarization, but to some previously abandoned norm is almost inevitable and it’s getting more and more lobbyists every day.

This means that the system will, driven by current events, sway and accelerate. Moreover, taking into account the fact that Western economies, especially together with allies like Japan and South Korea, account for much more than half of the world’s GDP, even their slight militarization will have a huge effect.

Which cannot be interrupted by any “cunning decisions” and a total transfer of the shaky Russian economy onto a war footing. 1.5% compared to 60% of the world economy - the Western card cannot be covered with any trump cards, except perhaps an atomic bomb - but then this will be the last game.

Moreover, recent events are quite clearly pushing the same Israel, which will undoubtedly win now, towards the Western pro-Ukrainian bloc; in Seoul they look with hostility at the cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang; Tokyo is gradually abolishing the remnants of self-restrictions on the development of its army and military complex.

We woke up our opponents, they noticed us - what’s next? Has it gotten any better? More fun?”


The last sentence is somewhat reminiscent of a line from the screenplay for the movie Tora Tora Tora:

I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.
 
The last sentence is somewhat reminiscent of a line from the screenplay for the movie Tora Tora Tora:

I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.

Among the top ranks in Japan Yammamoto understood the US better than anyone. He studied at Harvard and did two tours as a military attache to the Japanese embassy in the US. He took the opportunity to tour the US and learned quite a bit about US industry. He understood what Japan was up against.
 
Look at the crisp shadows in the river of the NKorea/Russia railroad bridge!

Judging from the amount of remnant snow, and where I have which heavy equipment and vehicles, I’ll say that satellite photo of my place is from early June, 2021. I wonder how many dates it took to stitch that entire globe together, and how frequently it is updated.
My response is Google specific:
Judging only from the regular looks at my own properties I note the updates vary enormously from place to place. For example my are in Rio de Janeiro seems to update at least seasonally. Southern France, Alpes Maritime, looks more like yearly.
Beyond these three I don’t look often enough to know.
OTON, my Florida location has some distinctive equipment that was removed in early 2001.
FWIW, Street Views, where I use them, pretty obviously are updated based on some usage/value metric.

As we all know the military and commercial satellite views now have essentially global coverage with level of precision and accuracy rapidly expanding. Note that present technology geophysical satellite mapping is so enormously detailed and accurate that rapid measures of land subsidence can be measured.

The article is not strictly on our subject. However , if commercial satélite technology has advanced to the point of millimeter variations in specific building locations on a longitudinal time series…then we may be sure that Russian logistics, thermal signatures , and much more are available wherever they are required and in near real time. We also know that specific points of weakness in bridges, buildings and other constructions are readily accessible.
Possibly I may overestimate the present state of technology. I doubt it. This sort of technology can find Gaza tunnels.
Targetting is largely solved. The problem now is execution not location.
 
If you're looking for the imagery date in Google Earth, it is listed in the bottom right hand side of the screen just below the google earth sign. It doesn't show in google maps or Bing maps as far as I am aware. If the screen has stitched together multiple images it appears to set the date at the oldest one, and if the view is of an area where Google does those 3D render thingies, it doesn't appear to show a date. Perhaps not helpful for the
1697376759255.png


The NK/Russia border river area is quite up to date in some areas with photos from May this year
1697377071593.png