Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

Not to mention the Ukrainian farmers predilection to recycle and/or repurpose partially anything they find. recall those farm tractors pulling disabled tanks a year or so ago? They might even extract prices and sell them to raise money with they did with parts of downed MIG's a few months ago.
From childhood I recall a Ukrainian immigrant family (ok, because the eldest daughter was my first girlfriend) which acquired the odd discarded car or farm implement and restored them to working order. Frugal, they were. Poor, they were not. I learned from them.
All that captured armament must really be a treasure trove.

I have a friend whose now ex was an engineer getting a PhD who was from Ukraine. He had an almost addiction to fixing up cars and selling them on. They didn't need the money, but he was constantly buying cars that needed work, fixing them up, then selling them.

She was constantly trying to carve out a small space for herself in the house. If it wasn't car parts taking up space, it was stuff to do with his dissertation which had to do with some new manufacturing equipment. She'd clear off a small table, tell him it was her space, then the next day she'd come home from work and find a carburetor sitting there.

Yes, that is the exact point I was making, in jocular fashion.

I have a contact deeply involved in the Ukrainian steel industry. I need to learn whether there exists/-ed any electric-arc furnaces there. Those are what one uses to turn scrap steel into new ingots and billets.

A modern tank, I learned from that unimpeachable source, the internet, derives approximately 50% of its weight from its steel armor. Let's carve out another 20-25% for its weaponry and treads, at 5-6 tons per set, another 10%. Eighty percent of a 40-50-ton older generation Soviet tank....35-40 tons x 5,000 tanks only: in the neighborhood of 200,000 tons of steel.

Gee! With that they could make, hmmm.....about 4,000 tanks! Or lots and lots of plowshares.

The world scrap steel market is probably going to be flooded with steel from Ukraine when this war is over.

We have been recycling steel long enough that most of the steel in cars today came from navy ships or tanks in WW II. Next time you think about those full sized pickups running around as tanks, maybe they literally were one in a past life.

 

[madodel]

When you think of Human Rights you think of Ruzzia, right? They got 83 votes in favor of them being added to the UN Human Rights Council, out of 193 members.

Russia Loses Bid to Regain Seat on UN Rights Body

 

[SmokyPeat]

I have a friend whose now ex was an engineer getting a PhD who was from Ukraine. He had an almost addiction to fixing up cars and selling them on. They didn't need the money, but he was constantly buying cars that needed work, fixing them up, then selling them.

She was constantly trying to carve out a small space for herself in the house. If it wasn't car parts taking up space, it was stuff to do with his dissertation which had to do with some new manufacturing equipment. She'd clear off a small table, tell him it was her space, then the next day she'd come home from work and find a carburetor sitting there.



The world scrap steel market is probably going to be flooded with steel from Ukraine when this war is over.

We have been recycling steel long enough that most of the steel in cars today came from navy ships or tanks in WW II. Next time you think about those full sized pickups running around as tanks, maybe they literally were one in a past life.

I can believe that most cars today contain SOME steel from WW2 ships/weaponry. But most of the steel seems highly unlikely.

 

[AudubonB]

I have a friend whose now ex was an engineer getting a PhD who was from Ukraine. He had an almost addiction to fixing up cars and selling them on. They didn't need the money, but he was constantly buying cars that needed work, fixing them up, then selling them.

She was constantly trying to carve out a small space for herself in the house. If it wasn't car parts taking up space, it was stuff to do with his dissertation which had to do with some new manufacturing equipment. She'd clear off a small table, tell him it was her space, then the next day she'd come home from work and find a carburetor sitting there.



The world scrap steel market is probably going to be flooded with steel from Ukraine when this war is over.

We have been recycling steel long enough that most of the steel in cars today came from navy ships or tanks in WW II. Next time you think about those full sized pickups running around as tanks, maybe they literally were one in a past life.

A tad bit of hyperbole with that last "most", but no matter. EXCEPT....there are certain materials that literally cannot be replicated today; the sole source for them is pre-WWII scrap. Most uses of these near-unobtanium stuffs is in super-high technical research laboratories. If somebody needs a clue as to why they cannot be replicated, the specific No-Go-Past date is July 16, 1945.

 

[SmokyPeat]

And low background steel is itself too radioactive for the most sensitive instruments. Very pure copper is often used in those applications. The levels of atmospheric background radiation have diminished greatly since the nuclear test ban treaty was instituted in the 60's. Steel made today from virgin ore is very nearly low background steel. How does this relate to Ukraine? Very loosely, but there was a significant amount of steel badly contaminated with radionuclides at Chernobyl that was recycled.

 

[wdolson]

I can believe that most cars today contain SOME steel from WW2 ships/weaponry. But most of the steel seems highly unlikely.

I mistyped. I mean some steel, not most. There is a fair bit of WW II steel in circulation now.

A tad bit of hyperbole with that last "most", but no matter. EXCEPT....there are certain materials that literally cannot be replicated today; the sole source is pre-WWII scrap. Most uses of these near-unobtanium stuffs is in super-high technical research laboratories. If somebody needs a clue as to why they cannot be replicated, the specific No-Go Past date is July 16, 1945.

I have read that there are some wrecks in fairly shallow water in the South China Sea that have been stripped by people seeking pre-WW II steel. I believe that in the last few years some techniques have been developed to make radioactive isotope free steel.

 

[SageBrush]

When you think of Human Rights you think of Ruzzia, right? They got 83 votes in favor of them being added to the UN Human Rights Council, out of 193 members.

Russia Loses Bid to Regain Seat on UN Rights Body

I think of how countries use representation to block criticism of **their** behavior

 

[Artful Dodger]

Russian meatballs move South of Bakhmut to Andriivka:

11 Oct: REALITY HITS IN THE FACE. Russians Had No Tanks On 2nd Day of Offensive | War in Ukraine | Reporting from Ukraine

 

[growler23]

Russian meatballs move South of Bakhmut to Andriivka:

11 Oct: REALITY HITS IN THE FACE. Russians Had No Tanks On 2nd Day of Offensive | War in Ukraine | Reporting from Ukraine

That was another encouraging stand by Andriivka. IMO the Ukrainian command realizes this is mostly a fixing action by the Russians, and hopefully Ukr can continue to stand firm with existing resources in situ.

The last few days seem to me to be a marked change in Russian approach. It seems like they are trying to regain the initiative with lots of flashy (boom?) offensive actions across the board (possibly with exception of Robotyne area). Anyone else seem to read that from the various reports and stats? Is there a big political push to show progress, or to be able to make a statement here (in the US/West political situation) of "see: the vaunted counteroffensive has failed; Ukraine is losing ground"?

 

[cusetownusa]

Looks like Russia stepped up their currency controls.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/10/12/economy/russia-ruble-surge-export-controls/index.html

 

[wdolson]

That was another encouraging stand by Andriivka. IMO the Ukrainian command realizes this is mostly a fixing action by the Russians, and hopefully Ukr can continue to stand firm with existing resources in situ.

The last few days seem to me to be a marked change in Russian approach. It seems like they are trying to regain the initiative with lots of flashy (boom?) offensive actions across the board (possibly with exception of Robotyne area). Anyone else seem to read that from the various reports and stats? Is there a big political push to show progress, or to be able to make a statement here (in the US/West political situation) of "see: the vaunted counteroffensive has failed; Ukraine is losing ground"?

Hard to know exactly what they were thinking. What they did was utterly stupid though. The bulk of Russia's army is now very poorly trained. If they are lucky the mobiks can be taught to do one defensive task and maybe survive long enough to achieve something.

In the early part of the war the Ukrainians had a large number of TDF forces who were given stingers and ATGMs and positioned along the routes the Russians were expected to attack. They were told to do as much damage to any Russians you see and then escape. They did do a lot of damage because they had very simple orders that were easy to follow.

To go over on the offensive takes better training and coordination. Artillery needs to coordinate their barrages so they stop shooting when their troops get to where they are shooting. Tanks and infantry need to coordinate. Tanks engage other vehicles, fortified positions, and anything that needs some range while the infantry serve as the short range eyes and ears for the tanks. Tanks since the second or third year of WW II have become very vulnerable to infantry with AT weapons. Unmounted infantry around a tank are best at spotting AT teams approaching a tank. The only person in a tank who can look around 360 degrees is the commander who used to be half out the top hatch, but in this war he is usually buttoned up in the tank and can't see much of anything. Even if the commander is partially out of the tank, he's usually busy directing fire at more distant targets and isn't looking to the sides or back.

Early in the war the Russians didn't dismount infantry going into combat and they often lost the infantry vehicles and the tanks. Now they are doing a better job of dismounting the infantry, but if the infantry doesn't know what to look for, they may survive when their transport gets taken out, but they aren't going to know how to coordinate with the tanks.

With the heavy drone environment we're seeing in this war any kind of concentration of vehicles is asking to get nailed by enemy artillery before they get near the contact line. Western artillery is so dang accurate that one artillery battery can maul an entire formation of Russian tanks and AFVs before they know what's happening.

Those that weren't taken out by drone directed artillery were taken out by Ukrainian anti tank weapons. The infantry dismounted from a lot of the AGVs before they were destroyed, but instead of pulling back because it was obvious they had run into a much stronger force than they had anticipated, they threw the infantry at the Ukrainians with predictable results.

The Russians lost a considerably large force to take a few hundred meters that the Ukrainians will take back as soon as the Russian force gets whittled down more.

Maybe the Russians thought that they could take advantage of the disruption in the US to strike at Ukraine when the US didn't have funds allocated? I'm not sure why they would think Ukraine would be weak now. It takes up to six months from the time the money is spent to when the equipment arrives in Ukraine. And there is still something like $4.5 billion left in the fund to send arms to Ukraine. The cutting off of Ukraine funds won't affect the war for a few months at minimum. Maybe the flow will slow down around January, but until then the flow of arms hasn't changed.

Maybe the Russians thought Ukrainian morale tanked as a result of what's going on in the US? Or maybe it was some other hair brained scheme? It sure seems that the Russian army is being run by Baldric right now. Though I think even Baldric would have done better.

 

[madodel]

Looks like Russia stepped up their currency controls.

Ruble gains as Russia reintroduces capital controls | CNN Business

Shocking that their wartime military budget is just 9.7 trillion Rubles ($100B). That's a rounding error in the US military budget and technically we are not at war, just funding others to fight the evil-doers. And so much of that is siphoned off do to corruption.. No wonder the conscripts have to wear their own shows and use ancient discard weapons.

Russia’s defense spending has ballooned since its invasion of Ukraine last year. According to a government document seen by Reuters in August, Moscow forecasts its spending on defense to hit 9.7 trillion rubles ($100 billion) in 2023 — almost three times what it spent on defense in 2021, before the war.

 

[adiggs]

That was another encouraging stand by Andriivka. IMO the Ukrainian command realizes this is mostly a fixing action by the Russians, and hopefully Ukr can continue to stand firm with existing resources in situ.

The last few days seem to me to be a marked change in Russian approach. It seems like they are trying to regain the initiative with lots of flashy (boom?) offensive actions across the board (possibly with exception of Robotyne area). Anyone else seem to read that from the various reports and stats? Is there a big political push to show progress, or to be able to make a statement here (in the US/West political situation) of "see: the vaunted counteroffensive has failed; Ukraine is losing ground"?

At least in plenty of wargames I've played, the defender gets a large advantage over the offense. As a result the ideal circumstance is to be on the attack strategically, while on the defense tactically.

In a game it might be rushing a unit ahead to some defensible location that the other side can't let stand, forcing them to attack even while the larger strategic situation calls for defense. Its hard to pull off, but it can be devastating when it works.

I don't know that is what is happening here for Ukraine, but its sounding that way to me.

 

[iPlug]

Russia + OPEC continue trying to push up oil/gasoline prices and we have word a few days ago a natural gas pipeline from Finland to Estonia was intentionally damaged, suspect #1 Russia at this point. Of course Israel/Hamas issues contributing to price pressures as well.

Good news for those looking for relief- the U.S. set an all time record for crude oil production last week, now 13.2 million barrels per day. This was expected to have taken longer post-Covid recovery. U.S. Natural gas production is also at record highs with no signs of slowing down. Both oil and natural gas U.S. output will likely climb even further in the next 2 years with ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer.


Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Natural Gas Weekly Update

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

...] "We hope to transfer twelve to eighteen aircraft to Romania within a few weeks, which means the center can start operating," Ollongren said while speaking to the press at the NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels.

The preparations to set up the training center are "going very well," she added. [...

Dutch minister: F-16 training in Romania for Ukrainian pilots to begin 'within weeks'

The Netherlands is set to send over a dozen F-16 jets to a training center in Romania so that Ukrainian pilots can begin training on the aircraft within the next weeks, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said in Brussels on Oct. 11.

news.yahoo.com

 

[wdolson]

Russian casualties have been high this week. 102 tanks, 184 AFVs, 94 guns, and 2840 personnel in the last three days. I suspect their attempt at an offensive is going badly.

Casualties of Russia in Ukraine - official data

 

[growler23]

Russian casualties have been high this week. 102 tanks, 184 AFVs, 94 guns, and 2840 personnel in the last three days. I suspect their attempt at an offensive is going badly.

Casualties of Russia in Ukraine - official data

It also appear that way to me, but IMO the Russians have always been willing to throw away unsustainable (to us) casualties to make a point. Are they trying to ratchet up the pressure on the Western Ukraine support with a city/town taken _at any cost_, to generate a headline to rattle folks at this time of European war, loss of a supportive Slovak government, dysfunctional US Congress, and new Mideast conflict? Just trying to think like a Putin here (a head spinning prospect but perhaps with its own logic). Hoping the Ukranians can continue to hold, for the love of Pete, hold!
On a not unrelated note...
I'm reading "Leningrad: Siege and Symphony" (Moynahan) right now about the amazing performance of Shostakovich's 7th Symphony under brutal Nazi siege in WW2, and can hardly get to the main plot due to covering of all the Soviet secret police disappearances, suspicions, public "accusation meetings" (that was a thing, chillingly, often attended by greedy apartment brokers in the context of a city with a housing shortage and apartments about to be...emptied), unexplained night-time killings that people are afraid to mention, the systematic "conveyor belt" of nonstop interrogations, painstaking parsing of Stalin's moods and reactions (he had musical opinions which posed a great risk to composers), etc. What a truly damned place to live back then. Is it that different now? Is paranoia just so ingrained in the culture since fear and mistrust has been such a part of it at multiple times in their history?
Anyway, the story itself is pretty incredible. I will make a modern movie about it in another life.

*Edit : typos

 

[X Fan]

It also appear that way to me, but IMO the Russians have always been willing to throw away unsustainable (to us) casualties to make a point. Are they trying to ratchet up the pressure on the Western Ukraine support with a city/town taken _at any cost_, to generate a headline to rattle folks at this time of European war, loss of a supportive Slovak government, dysfunctional US Congress, and new Mideast conflict? Just trying to think like a Putin here (a head spinning prospect but perhaps with its own logic). Hoping the Ukranians can continue to hold, for the love of Pete, hold!
On a not unrelated note...
I'm reading "Leningrad: Siege and Symphony" (Moynahan) right now about the amazing performance of Shostakovich's 7th Symphony under brutal Nazi siege in WW2, and can hardly get to the main plot due to covering of all the Soviet secret police disappearances, suspicions, public "accusation meetings" (that was a thing, chillingly, often attended by greedy apartment brokers in the context of a city with a housing shortage and apartments about to be...emptied), unexplained night-time killings that people are afraid to mention, the systematic "conveyor belt" of nonstop interrogations, painstaking parsing of Stalin's moods and reactions (he had musical opinions which posed a great risk to composers), etc. What a truly damned place to live back then. Is it that different now? Is paranoia just so ingrained in the culture since fear and mistrust has been such a part of it at multiple times in their history?
Anyway, the story itself is pretty incredible. I will make a modern movie about it in another life.

*Edit : typos

Another outstanding book worth reading on the battles is Anthony Beevor's: "Stalingrad, The fateful Siege: 1942-1943"

 

[Tiger]

It also appear that way to me, but IMO the Russians have always been willing to throw away unsustainable (to us) casualties to make a point. Are they trying to ratchet up the pressure on the Western Ukraine support with a city/town taken _at any cost_, to generate a headline to rattle folks at this time of European war, loss of a supportive Slovak government, dysfunctional US Congress, and new Mideast conflict? Just trying to think like a Putin here (a head spinning prospect but perhaps with its own logic). Hoping the Ukranians can continue to hold, for the love of Pete, hold!

Stop thinking, and you'll reach the Russian conclusion much faster

 

[X Fan]

"Ukraine struck a Russian missile carrier and a patrol ship this week involving sea-borne drones carrying experimental weapons, a Ukrainian intelligence source said on Friday.'

Ukraine-Russia war: Ukraine strikes Russian warships with 'experimental' drone attacks

Ukraine struck a Russian missile carrier and a patrol ship this week involving sea-borne drones carrying experimental weapons, a Ukrainian intelligence source said on Friday.

www.telegraph.co.uk