Russia is winning, and Ukraine is the one to decide when and how to negotiate, says Stoltenberg.
www.thegatewaypundit.com
Didn't see any new information except this:
I don't see how he came to that conclusion. The stalemate arguments are more credible. Russia has been trying to attack at Avdivika, but their losses have been staggering and their gains very minimal.
Putin is paranoid about doing another round of mobilization before the election next year. He will fake the election results, but Lukashenko had to severely cook the books to look like he won and he suffered from a lot of unrest afterwards. Putin can't afford any unrest because it could really kick off. His internal security forces are weaker than they were before the war. He sent part of them into Ukraine where they were killed. Only the most loyal go into the internal security forces and finding replacements is more difficult these days.
Putin is desperate to have something good to say about the war by the election and he can't start mobilizing people before that. So he is throwing away a lot of lives trying to take another small town. He is bleeding out his forces doing it. The cost has been staggeringly high in both men and equipment.
Avdivika is not a success for Russia. They have gained ground, but estimates are around 40,000 dead as well as hundreds of tanks, APVs, and artillery.
Russia is doing Ukraine a favor with this offensive. Every Russian who dies at Avdivika is a Russian who won't be able to man a trench and stop the Ukrainian offensive.
While the Russians are losing lives by the thousands at Avdivika, the Ukrainians are slowly but steadily expanding their bridgehead on the Dnipro. The logistics of getting large numbers of vehicles across the river and the supplies to sustain them makes this front difficult to turn into a breakout, but they are making progress there. At minimum the Dnipro bridgehead is stretching Russian resources even thinner.
Russia is going to have a rough winter. They don't have troops prepared for the winter weather. A mild winter could be rougher on Russians than a cold one. The "wet cold" range of temps from about -5 C to +5 C (roughly low 20s F to low 40s F) is more dangerous than temps a bit below that. When temps get colder than about -5 C, the air gets drier and for a range of about 10 C, the cold is easier to manage than the wet cold range. Once temps start getting below about -15 C it gets dangerous again because even though it's dry, it's so bloody cold that hypothermia and frostbite are a constant problem.
In the wet cold range, especially when temps are crossing the freezing point of water back and forth, damp seeping into clothing and shelters is a constant problem. Hypothermia and things like trench foot become a major problem. Sitting around with wet feet in that kind of weather leads to disease problems. Wet feet also increase the risk of frostbite when the weather turns cold.
Disciplined armies constantly police the troops to ensure they are keeping their feet dry and maintaining good cold weather practices. The Russians are even less disciplined this winter then last winter. Last winter their cold injury rate was extremely high. Troops getting high will make this even worse.
The Ukrainians have good cold weather equipment and they have the discipline to stay healthy. They had some cold injuries last winter, but their rate was small compared to the Russians.
A lot of Russian troops come from Siberia so they have some life experience with cold, but Siberia is more of the dry, severe cold than the wet cold they are facing soon in Ukraine. They also grew up with houses that were warmed they could go back to and warm up. They don't have that in a trench in Ukraine.
At this point neither side is clearly winning. It's clear that Russia isn't winning and can't win. Ukraine is struggling, but they need to keep up the pressure until something breaks in Russia.
What would happen if one side decided to sprinkle the other side with fentanyl pills?
If the Ukrainians are providing the drugs it's a brilliant move though terrible for the victims. There were widespread stories of Russian mobiks getting drunk a few months back. Alcoholism among men in Russia is endemic. The Russians may have done a job policing the alcohol so less of it was getting to the troops. So they ended up with an army of addicts jonesing for their next high. Pump fentanyl into that population and they are going to go for it like any dry addict would. There are probably a lot of overdose problems too.
www.kyivpost.com
