Russia/Ukraine conflict

[nativewolf]

No, nuclear weapons for Russia include many tactical nuclear devices that are not anything like the ICBM sites of fifty years ago, although those are still around, antiquated maybe rusting just lke the US ones. The ones of today are small and versatile, not withstanding their horrible consequences. I am not discing nuclear weapons.

Four (4) Russian General officers were killed in action in Ukraine as of yesterday, as was reported. Are General officers ever deployed in field actions?
Is that presence a sign of severe disarray? How many General officers are ever killed in combat? As any person you know who has ever served on combat if that is a sign of success or even minimal preparedness.

Numerous Russian aircraft have been shot down by ground forces. Think about that. Are those aircraft properly prepared for serious combat?

Several thousand Russian soldiers have surrendered to Ukrainian forces. Is that likely with good support?

This list goes on. Russian logistics support is so overstretched that tanks, missile launchers, troop carriers and supply trucks have stopped from lack of fuel. Many surrendering Russian soldiers have no food.

Forget about the 800 Russian marines in mutiny in the Black Sea, and the plea to Syria, Russian Far East and Georgia troops to come to be deployed in Ukraine.
Is that a sign of good preparedness?

Yes, nuclear arms are a major and perhaps increasing threat. Russian protests in cities all over Russia, from Vladivostok to Saint Petersburg, are happening publicly and flamboyantly. When did that happen before in Russia. Cities and countries all over eastern Europe and former SSR's are being inundated with fleeing Russians (No, you will not see that on CNN. Check out news from Istanbul, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan. Check any country that allows Russians to enter without visa. Then check the ones that have large numbers of people who have dual citizenship from Russia. To be specific, look at recent arrivals in Israel of Israelis with Russian citxenhip (hint! think oligarch).

If you still think it is going smoothly with the Russian war effort then no evidence will convince you.Don't take my word for it. Everything I said is publicly documented, I did NOT interject my opinion, apart from realizing that military experts forecast fighting capacity of Russian forces to have serious decline in less than one week from yesterday, as stated on multiple broadcast news (Don't bother with CNN, Fox, or the US press, there're too preoccupied with human interest stories so don't really look at the fundamentals.

The primary question is whether there are Russian people with sufficient access and determination to change decision making. Just remember the Afghanistan rout ended with Gorbachev ending his rule. Russia lost fewer soldiers there than they have already lost in Ukraine. Check the numbers, don't take my word for it.

I firmly believe this will end somehow with the next two weeks. The aftermath will last decades. If this ended with nuclear weapons usage the end time will probably change little but the consequences will be incalculable.

General media is full of stories of the russian cream leaving russia. May require a regime change to get them to return.

 

[nativewolf]

Good listen and personal stories that will be shared wide and far
(already has it seems "154.7K Retweets; 22.2K Quote Tweets; 435.6K Likes" )

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504426844199669762

Thanks so much for sharing that. Very impressive, really well produced and scripted.

 

[EVNow]

Talking about Russian propaganda and misinformation campaign …

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504462549755912198

 

[wdolson]

Maybe, maybe not. If indeed most young people are against the dictator, then I think he will fall. Just a few years before the Berlin wall fell, that too seemed impossible.

I've noticed a generational divide in the US between those who remember the cold war and those who don't. In the US it's about what people think about when they hear the world "socialist". It's means communism, evil empire, etc. to those who do remember and it means Sweden and Bernie Sanders to those younger.

In Russia the divide is sharper. To those who remember the cold war, the end of the USSR is a shameful thing and the time immediately after was economic chaos. For those who don't remember it, they have lived their lives with western goods and western conveniences and have vacationed in Europe and other places. They have no memories of the cultural shame around the end of the cold war.

As a result Putin's strongman act and his messaging resonates with the older generations who lived through the end of the USSR, but it falls on deaf ears among the younger generation who don't have the context for it.

The Rest is History podcast recently did a 4 parter on the end of the USSR and the rise of Putin
159. Young Putin, the KGB and the Soviet Union – The Rest Is History – Podcast

Worth it if you want to understand how older Russians think.

To Muscovites the rest of Russia are inferior according to my wife. She also reckons there’s only 2 distinct accents in Russia, Muscovite then the rest (note I said distinct).

Robert Heinlein went to Russia in 1960 and he wrote a travel essay about it. He talked about how the greatest insult to a Russian was "nyet culturnya" (spelling is probably atrocious) which means "uncultured". At least at the time the Russians were obsessed with being seen as cultured. I think it stemmed from Stalin's issues. He had a strong Georgian accent and the Muscovites saw him as a back country rube.

The militarism Germany had in the early to mid-20th century was due to a number of factors, but in the European cultural pecking order of the lat 19th century they were seen as low class even though they were excelling in a number of industries and had finally unified in 1870. After WW II the militarism vanished in part because of the defeat in the war, but the rest of the world did respect what they did, even if most felt it was a horrific empire.

I think culturally the Russians may have a similar inferiority complex that stems from developing from a somewhat backwards agrarian society to an industrial power house in only a few decades and having a dictator running the show who had his own cultural issues because of his accent. The Russians managed to stand up to the US and NATO despite having a weaker economy and were first into space. Then came the collapse in the early 90s and the country ceased to exist. Putin promised to make Russia great again and he delivered in some ways.

Now it's all unraveling again.

"The signing of a new oil supply contract confirms the strategic nature of the long-term partnership between Rosneft and Indian Oil," Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said, according to a company statement.

Russia's largest crude producer said it has agreed to a contract to ship up to 2 million mt, or around 14.66 mil barrels, of crude by the end of 2022. Deliveries will be shipped through the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, the company said.”

So I guess they are exporting LNG as well as oil? They aren't going to be shipping much soon. The Black Sea ports are closed due to the war. Insurance companies won't insure any merchant ship near the war zone, so none are going there.

It already has, but they did manage the auction this week, so immediate mass bank failures deferred.
HAs for FX, managing the interest payment did buy a little time too.
Perhaps weirdly, the biggest financial issue right now is domestic liquidity, not FX. That, by itself, shows how dire the situation actually is now.
Given also the military logistics and staffing my personal guess is that they have less than ten days until general military collapse for Russian Military.
What will happen before then? What will happen then?
Nobody really knows. The only remotely applicable precedents are 75-80 years old. They were not comparable, really.
Such a situation has usually had the demise of the principle architect, by own or other hands.

I think the army in the field will see significant collapse by the end of this month. There may be some units left in the field, but they will be low on supply and the Russians will have trouble resupplying them. The Ukrainians will go on the offensive and surround the remaining units into pockets that will either die fighting or surrender.

The collapse of the army will send ripples up the chain of command. If Putin is still in power, there will be purges of the top generals which will destabilize the entire military. Exactly what happens from there is unknown. Losing a significant chunk of the military in a month is almost unknown in history. The USSR went through it in June 1941 when millions of troops were killed or captured, but because it was total war the Soviets rallied and started conscripting anyone who wasn't in a critical industry. The Germans had a lot of ground to cover after the initial victories, so the Russians could trade territory for time. The fall mud followed by the bitter cold of winter was the point where they could stop the losses and turn things around a bit. Being able to ship troops in from the Far East helped a lot too. Those troops arrived in Moscow just as the Germans reached the suburbs.

I can't think of a modern example of an army on the offense having a complete collapse and massive loss of units like the Russians are facing. This war is a massive mistake for the Russians. Their entire army is not big enough to take and hold Ukraine and Ukraine is not going to accept a puppet Russia puts in place. At this point any Ukrainians who might have sort of accepted it are not going to stand for it.

 

[nativewolf]

I've noticed a generational divide in the US between those who remember the cold war and those who don't. In the US it's about what people think about when they hear the world "socialist". It's means communism, evil empire, etc. to those who do remember and it means Sweden and Bernie Sanders to those younger.

In Russia the divide is sharper. To those who remember the cold war, the end of the USSR is a shameful thing and the time immediately after was economic chaos. For those who don't remember it, they have lived their lives with western goods and western conveniences and have vacationed in Europe and other places. They have no memories of the cultural shame around the end of the cold war.

As a result Putin's strongman act and his messaging resonates with the older generations who lived through the end of the USSR, but it falls on deaf ears among the younger generation who don't have the context for it.

The Rest is History podcast recently did a 4 parter on the end of the USSR and the rise of Putin
159. Young Putin, the KGB and the Soviet Union – The Rest Is History – Podcast

Worth it if you want to understand how older Russians think.


Robert Heinlein went to Russia in 1960 and he wrote a travel essay about it. He talked about how the greatest insult to a Russian was "nyet culturnya" (spelling is probably atrocious) which means "uncultured". At least at the time the Russians were obsessed with being seen as cultured. I think it stemmed from Stalin's issues. He had a strong Georgian accent and the Muscovites saw him as a back country rube.

The militarism Germany had in the early to mid-20th century was due to a number of factors, but in the European cultural pecking order of the lat 19th century they were seen as low class even though they were excelling in a number of industries and had finally unified in 1870. After WW II the militarism vanished in part because of the defeat in the war, but the rest of the world did respect what they did, even if most felt it was a horrific empire.

I think culturally the Russians may have a similar inferiority complex that stems from developing from a somewhat backwards agrarian society to an industrial power house in only a few decades and having a dictator running the show who had his own cultural issues because of his accent. The Russians managed to stand up to the US and NATO despite having a weaker economy and were first into space. Then came the collapse in the early 90s and the country ceased to exist. Putin promised to make Russia great again and he delivered in some ways.

Now it's all unraveling again.


So I guess they are exporting LNG as well as oil? They aren't going to be shipping much soon. The Black Sea ports are closed due to the war. Insurance companies won't insure any merchant ship near the war zone, so none are going there.



I think the army in the field will see significant collapse by the end of this month. There may be some units left in the field, but they will be low on supply and the Russians will have trouble resupplying them. The Ukrainians will go on the offensive and surround the remaining units into pockets that will either die fighting or surrender.

The collapse of the army will send ripples up the chain of command. If Putin is still in power, there will be purges of the top generals which will destabilize the entire military. Exactly what happens from there is unknown. Losing a significant chunk of the military in a month is almost unknown in history. The USSR went through it in June 1941 when millions of troops were killed or captured, but because it was total war the Soviets rallied and started conscripting anyone who wasn't in a critical industry. The Germans had a lot of ground to cover after the initial victories, so the Russians could trade territory for time. The fall mud followed by the bitter cold of winter was the point where they could stop the losses and turn things around a bit. Being able to ship troops in from the Far East helped a lot too. Those troops arrived in Moscow just as the Germans reached the suburbs.

I can't think of a modern example of an army on the offense having a complete collapse and massive loss of units like the Russians are facing. This war is a massive mistake for the Russians. Their entire army is not big enough to take and hold Ukraine and Ukraine is not going to accept a puppet Russia puts in place. At this point any Ukrainians who might have sort of accepted it are not going to stand for it.

In terms of collapse I think of Iraq when Saddam's forces were thrown out of Kuwait as being the gold standard. 100 days later it was completely over and there was no army, from about half a million under arms before hand. This is the reverse but will be a similar route. Shows the value of logistics and leadership (GW Senior was no fool, idealistic perhaps but not a fool).

Historically many many examples of armies overextending and being completely destroyed. From Persian empires to Romans to Chinese to Japanese to any number of European examples. Putin has not stripped the country bare to invade Ukraine. There are hundreds of thousands of reservists, plenty of aircraft that were down for maint (much less than half are combat worthy at any one point -data from india says they only achieved something like 10% operational capability with modern SUs) etc. It is however going to have gutted the logistical arm of the russian army. After the war is over and Russians are back in Russia I would not be surprised to find that Russia can't move fuel or missiles without rail access or by using civilian trucks. It would be an excellent time for Chechnya to rebel again and Georgia to join Nato. The best time of all for Sweden and Finland to join.

 

[Skipdd]

This article doesn’t really offer new information, but the cogent way the author lays out the points is excellent, including the article tag line.

Only NATO Can Save Putin
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-war-nato-intervention/627092/?utm_source=feed

 

[nativewolf]

This article doesn’t really offer new information, but the cogent way the author lays out the points is excellent, including the article tag line.

Only NATO Can Save Putin
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-war-nato-intervention/627092/?utm_source=feed

Yes that echo's many on here. Let Ukraine do the fighting and stay out to keep the pressure on Putin. Arm Ukraine train refugees if need be. I particularly like the fact that he has called out Putin for being a historically bad strategist. My long term thinking as well. He goes from blunder to brutal blunder. Which works until someone pops you in the face.

 

[wdolson]

If I had broken into the Russian military communications I'd be sure to have lots of stories about getting the plans from inside the KGB,GRU ,etc. TRUST NOTHING. We clearly do have intel. How we get it...who knows. I wouldn't guess. Clearly now the "secure" phone systems are down. The NSA must be having a field day. Finally tracking down real generals and not a guy with 6 bodyguards moving by donkey at night. This is why the NSA was built. Well that and to spy on my choice of adult movies of course.

Then there is this today
'Russia sacks one of its own generals' amid stalling Ukraine invasion

The Russians seem to think there was a leak.

So, as usual, the only winners in a war are arms manufacturers.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504478417302929411

In normal times I would be cynical, but there is a real threat at the moment. There were concerns that the sanctions would cause a recession in the US. Probably not.

Sorry to sound pessimistic, but I think Russia is just pulling a fast one on Ukraine. It will request peaceful retreat, regroup with Syrian and Chechen fighters and their weaponry, and attack again. Ukraine should finish the invading army (before negotiations are over) while they have the opportunity and attack even if they start retreating before truce. Don't want another Mao - When pressure from KMT troops became too great, Mao abandoned Maoping and withdrew up the mountain to Wang Zuo's stronghold at Dajing (Big Well), from which they could control the mountain passes. That winter the Communists drilled with the local bandits and the next year incorporated them into their regular army. In February a battalion from the KMT's Jiangxi Army occupied Xincheng, a town north of Maoping. During the night of February 17, Mao surrounded them with three battalions of his own and routed them the next day. ROC troops mostly fled to Taiwan from provinces in southern China, in particular Sichuan Province, where the last stand of the ROC's main army took place.

There is a problem with mercenaries. Mercenaries want to have a good chance of living long enough to spend their paycheck. If the situation looks hopeless they will figure out somewhere else to be.

The parallel with the Chinese civil war is not that great. Chaing's government was very corrupt and when Mao retreated, they figured Mao was done and went back to their usual scheming. If Ukraine is given a break, they will fortify their positions and a second invasion would be ripped to shreds even faster.

Also if Russia begins to look weak, Chechnya might start thinking about independence again and their fighters might not be that interested in fighting with Putin.

 

[wdolson]

In terms of collapse I think of Iraq when Saddam's forces were thrown out of Kuwait as being the gold standard. 100 days later it was completely over and there was no army, from about half a million under arms before hand. This is the reverse but will be a similar route. Shows the value of logistics and leadership (GW Senior was no fool, idealistic perhaps but not a fool).

Historically many many examples of armies overextending and being completely destroyed. From Persian empires to Romans to Chinese to Japanese to any number of European examples. Putin has not stripped the country bare to invade Ukraine. There are hundreds of thousands of reservists, plenty of aircraft that were down for maint (much less than half are combat worthy at any one point -data from india says they only achieved something like 10% operational capability with modern SUs) etc. It is however going to have gutted the logistical arm of the russian army. After the war is over and Russians are back in Russia I would not be surprised to find that Russia can't move fuel or missiles without rail access or by using civilian trucks. It would be an excellent time for Chechnya to rebel again and Georgia to join Nato. The best time of all for Sweden and Finland to join.

You're right, the aftermath of Gulf War I was the closest parallel. Hussein barely held on.

There are quite a number of examples from antiquity, but that world is so different both militarily and politically from today that you can't really draw a parallel with any validity.

I've done some reading on the Russian reserve system and while they claim 2 million reserves, these are just conscripts who finished their year of service in the last 3 years. They don't have a cadre of trained reserves like most western militaries have. They have tried to set up a reserve of trained contract reservists, but they have only gotten a few thousand volunteers.

The Russians have been telling the public that everything is going fine. If they suddenly mobilize a lot of troops, people are going to notice.

They also no longer have access to the parts to make the more sophisticated munitions. Once they burn through those, they will be out until the sanctions are lifted.

 

[_Redshift_]

They have been trying to diversify from sometime. Not sure why they can’t go back to building most of the arms … I guess not much money for Modi’s cronies.

In any case - India‘s votes were neutral, but all statements have been indirectly critical of Russia.

Anyway, gas pipelines to India have been talked about for ever. From Iran, for eg. If the pipeline has to come through Pakistan, it just won’t happen. And you can’t get it over Himalayas.

Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline

Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Gas Pipeline, also known as the Peace Pipeline, was a proposed gas pipeline which was cancelled after India withdrew from the trilateral deal.[1][2] India withdrew from the plan in 2009 due to pressure from the USA.[3] Iran and Pakistan later went ahead with a new...

www.gem.wiki

ps : Apparently being considered since ‘16.

India, Russia Discuss US$25 Billion Gas Pipeline | OilPrice.com

India and Russia are studying the construction of a gas pipeline to transport Russian gas from Siberia to India, over 2,800-3,700 miles

oilprice.com

India‘s technical challenge has been that they can’t make a good fighter plane power plant. They have an indigenous Light Combat Aircfraft which is a lightweight F-16 competitor. With GE 404 engine, though. Not much to do with Modi.

They have been working on a stealth fighter to rival those from China, but the success is not guaranteed.

India doesn’t want Russia to be pissed off at it, thus befriending Pakistan more, to India’s detriment.

My, how the tables have turned. Russia, which used to be an Indian ally, might side with Pakistan in any future war with Pakistan!

 

[Artful Dodger]

A message to the Russian people - Arnold Schwarzenegger | (18 hrs ago)

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Also if Russia begins to look weak, Chechnya might start thinking about independence again and their fighters might not be that interested in fighting with Putin.

If Ramzan Kadyrov is assassinated, it is very likely that Chechnya would revolt again.

The CIA is probably working hard at finding ways to undermine Putin while he's occupied with this disaster of an invasion, now that I think about it...

 

[Xdama]

You're right, the aftermath of Gulf War I was the closest parallel. Hussein barely held on.

There are quite a number of examples from antiquity, but that world is so different both militarily and politically from today that you can't really draw a parallel with any validity.

I've done some reading on the Russian reserve system and while they claim 2 million reserves, these are just conscripts who finished their year of service in the last 3 years. They don't have a cadre of trained reserves like most western militaries have. They have tried to set up a reserve of trained contract reservists, but they have only gotten a few thousand volunteers.

The Russians have been telling the public that everything is going fine. If they suddenly mobilize a lot of troops, people are going to notice.

They also no longer have access to the parts to make the more sophisticated munitions. Once they burn through those, they will be out until the sanctions are lifted.

I heard at the time Saddam Hussein was within striking distance of both British SF and the French Foreign Legion, he essentially was given a “get out of jail” free card on the advice of Colin Powell who said he’d had enough essentially. This is just rumour though but if true the second gulf adventure may never have needed to happen.

The Russian army is mainly conscripts and for the main part young men do NOT want to go when called up. Bullying is still rife, the training barracks are more akin to a 1960’s corrupt film jail type environment, cold damp and miserable. So you can understand why not many would want to return after their time is complete.

 

[wdolson]

I heard at the time Saddam Hussein was within striking distance of both British SF and the French Foreign Legion, he essentially was given a “get out of jail” free card on the advice of Colin Powell who said he’d had enough essentially. This is just rumour though but if true the second gulf adventure may never have needed to happen.

The Russian army is mainly conscripts and for the main part young men do NOT want to go when called up. Bullying is still rife, the training barracks are more akin to a 1960’s corrupt film jail type environment, cold damp and miserable. So you can understand why not many would want to return after their time is complete.

In the aftermath of the Vietnam War the US came to the conclusion that an all volunteer army was a superior force to a conscript force. Conscripts in a necessary war are reluctant to be there, but they see that it's necessary and try to do their part. Conscripts in a war of choice neither want to be there nor see the point of the war.

The conscripts that are in Ukraine now didn't even know they were in Ukraine or what was going on until they started getting shot at. Their lack of training and lack of motivation has been a major hallmark of Russian performance thus far. Anyone called up at this point knows going in that they will likely be sent off to Ukraine and have even less motivation to be there.

Any replacements sent in now are going to be even lower quality than the ones already there.

 

[Xepa777]

Talking about Russian propaganda and misinformation campaign …

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504462549755912198

This is distressing to read.

 

[SmokyPeat]

This is distressing to read.

Then don't get your news from Q-anon wingnuts on Twitter. Problem solved.

 

[nativewolf]

Then there is this today
'Russia sacks one of its own generals' amid stalling Ukraine invasion

The Russians seem to think there was a leak.



In normal times I would be cynical, but there is a real threat at the moment. There were concerns that the sanctions would cause a recession in the US. Probably not.



There is a problem with mercenaries. Mercenaries want to have a good chance of living long enough to spend their paycheck. If the situation looks hopeless they will figure out somewhere else to be.

The parallel with the Chinese civil war is not that great. Chaing's government was very corrupt and when Mao retreated, they figured Mao was done and went back to their usual scheming. If Ukraine is given a break, they will fortify their positions and a second invasion would be ripped to shreds even faster.

Also if Russia begins to look weak, Chechnya might start thinking about independence again and their fighters might not be that interested in fighting with Putin.

In stalins day they actual did battlefield executions for a general failing to reach objectives. Many...many executions. Didn't mean the plan was any good or that anyone could have achieved the objective. I mean the guys have been calling on cell phones for petes sake.

 

[nativewolf]

I heard at the time Saddam Hussein was within striking distance of both British SF and the French Foreign Legion, he essentially was given a “get out of jail” free card on the advice of Colin Powell who said he’d had enough essentially. This is just rumour though but if true the second gulf adventure may never have needed to happen.

The Russian army is mainly conscripts and for the main part young men do NOT want to go when called up. Bullying is still rife, the training barracks are more akin to a 1960’s corrupt film jail type environment, cold damp and miserable. So you can understand why not many would want to return after their time is complete.

I have no idea who you are but no...no that is not what happened. Not striking distance unless you expected to go into Baghdad and not Colin Powell who said enough. GW Senior said that it was enough when the army was routed and could not fight. He did not want the complete collapse of Iraq and he didn't want a vacuum that would pull the coalition in to maintain order. In this regard he was so much smarter than his son. So much. His son, bless the kid, is an idiot. Saddam should have never sent the hit squad into Kuwait to try to kill GW those years later. If he just had not done that he would still be in power.

 

[petit_bateau]

Yesterday Russians were conspicuously deploying some of their nuclear war command & control assets to dispersal locations

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504481723429490694

and

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504374496358187014

An old paper on non-strategic nuclear weapons. Remember that these can be both 'tactical' in purpose, and also strategic in the 'signalling' sense. Furthermore the classification is somewhat academic if you are in the city that is within range of ~50kt devices, as is most of Europe.

The art of negotiating non-strategic nuclear weapons | Brookings

Steven Pifer writes that Washington develops its negotiating approach for non-strategic nuclear weapons with Moscow, it should consult closely with its allies.

www.brookings.edu

I don't think it is a coincidence that Russia has been using some of its Iskander ballistic missiles already, which can cary both a conventional or a nuclear warhead. How do you know which is inbound ? Things like this certainly concentrated minds in Germany, hence them announcing the buy of 35 x F35 for the nuclear dual key role.
Germany to buy 35 Lockheed F-35 fighter jets from U.S. amid Ukraine crisis

A concern has to be that Russia tries to bait-and-switch in peace talks and ceasefires, all the while trying to attrite the Ukraine air force to the point where they become non-viable. At which time Russia could switch back to the offensive. The West needs to figure out a way to close that path down. Options would include: resupply of the same types of aircraft to Ukraine; enabling tools for a Ukraine counter-offensive; supply of other airspace denial tools. Nothing is easy.

Sensible sitrep here

Thread by @HoansSolo on Thread Reader App

@HoansSolo: Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 18) Little change to overall operational picture: -pace of 🇷🇺 ops has slowed down/stalled -slow/stalled 🇷🇺 advances in North to encircle Kyiv; sl...…

threadreaderapp.com

Latest Ukraine report re Russian losses to date

"
Total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 18.03 oríêntovno kaly / The total combat losses of the enemies from 24.02 To 18.03 were approximate:
personal warehouse / personnel - about / 14200 people,
tanks / tanks ‒ 450 od,
combat armored machines / APV ‒ 1448 od,
artillery systems / artillery systems - 205 od,
RSZV / MLRS - 72 of,
PPO / Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 43 of,
planes / aircraft - 93 od,
helicopters / helicopters - 112 od,
car equipment / vehicles - 879 od,
ships /boats / cutters - 3 pieces,
tank with PMM / fuel tanks - 60.
UAV operational-tactical level - 12.
Special equipment / special equipment - 11.
The data is getting more precise. The calculation is complicated by the high intensity of combat. / Data are being updated. The calculation is complicated by the high intensity of hostilities.
Beat the occupant! Together we will win!
Strike the occupier! Let's win together!
"

Міністерство оборони України

Міністерство оборони України. 797,840 likes · 3,612 talking about this.

www.facebook.com

 

[nativewolf]

If Ramzan Kadyrov is assassinated, it is very likely that Chechnya would revolt again.

The CIA is probably working hard at finding ways to undermine Putin while he's occupied with this disaster of an invasion, now that I think about it...

I would expect so, the only issue is that many of the best fighters there were rather radical islamists. Maybe just find a disgruntled junior. Certainly they won't have much energy to do anything about it for a few years.