DanCar
Active Member
Patriot system is not intended to be used near the front line, where cheap drones can spot them and make it an easy target.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
DanCar
Active Member
Ukraine says the story is false.
Ukraine war briefing: Kyiv pulls back Abrams tanks due to drone raids and losses, says US
Pentagon says it will help Ukrainians to adopt tactics that use M1A1 tanks more effectively. What we know on day 793www.theguardian.com
Ukrainian forces dismiss as fake information about withdrawal of Abrams tanks from battlefield due to drones
The 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade of Ukraineâs Armed Forces has dismissed as fake the report by the Associated Press that the Ukrainian Defence Forces have withdrawn US-supplied Abrams tanks from the battlefield due to the threat of Russian drone attacks.
www.pravda.com.ua
Tiger
Active Member
What is Ukraine supposed to think about these, steer away, critical infrastructure? /s
Putin believed he was going to be able to capture Ukraine and all he would face would be some condemnation from the west and some sanctions. Russia partially occupied Moldova after the fall of the USSR, then Putin invaded Georgia in 2008 with just words and some sanctions. Next he took the Donbas and Crimea with more of the same. Trump had done quite a bit to weaken NATO during his term and the US had an elderly president who everyone was saying was senile.
Putin thought he was going to be able to capture Ukraine in a quick campaign and then would be able to hold on through the condemnations. When Ukraine held on through the first few days, the war was lost for Russia. From that point on it's been just trying to hold it all together for Russia.
The loss, if it was part of a Patriot Battery, is nowhere near $1B or even the $400M figure which some sources are quoting. The video and frame grabs from the attack show 2 MAN trucks and a small support vehicle. Ukraine uses the same MAN trucks for other purposes so it's not 100% certain they had Patriot launchers on them, but if they did the loss would have been 2 quad launchers and 8 missiles if they were fully loaded. Missiles are $4-7M a piece and the launchers are a relatively small cost compared to the radar/control hardware. If the were fully armed launchers I'd say the loss was around $100-150M plus 6-8 personnel. It takes up to 90 personnel to operate a Patriot Battery so although this is a sad loss if true it's not as bad as some are making out.
Considering what they accomplished with that unorthodox strategy I think dollar for dollar Ukraine might have come out ahead.
As the saying goes, shoot the archers, not the arrows.
As the saying goes, shoot the archers, not the arrows.
OK, I can see that, but I have a lot of trouble second guessing any tactic Ukraine uses. Analogous to how many investors criticize Tesla for certain decisions: they (Tesla or Ukraine) have far more information than us, far more timely information than us, and are the ones who face the very real consequences of poor decisions. We applaud many of their unique unconventional decisions here. I do not put that much value on a lot of the Monday-morning quarterbacking that I see from the relevant forums.
Case in point: the many unexpected shoot downs of Russian warplanes in the last couple months. If indeed this Patriot shot those down, is it possibly worth the battery's risk? To me, that call HAS to be Ukraine's. They are well aware of the scarcity of air defense over their cities, and well aware what those aviation bombs are costing their front lines. IMO we don't have anywhere near enough information to evaluate the wisdom of their tactical decisions here.
The key for Ukraine is not just more weapons, but it has to also build up its forces.
With U.S. aid resumed, Ukraine will try to dig itself out of trouble
With U.S. aid resumed, Ukraine will try to dig itself out of trouble
I think Russia just got lucky with this one, whatever was on the back of the trucks. The story is a drone op spotted them and called in a missile strike. Questions remaining unanswered are:
1. Where was the rest of the Battery/crew? It certainly wasn't in the immediate vicinity looking at the video released.
2. Why were they stopped on the road long enough for the missile to arrive there? It would have taken several minutes from when the drone op called it in.
3. Why have the Russians continued with the story that it was an S-300 they hit? Surely they'd love to claim a Patriot hit?
Also, it's only the Russians saying Patriot has been downing their aircraft, the Il-76 with all the pretend UKR POWs on board being the highest profile one. The recent Tu-22M3 and A-50s were downed with modified S-200 missiles, which is a much more cost-effective and longer range option with less risk when operating close to the front line. As said above, they wouldn't risk putting a Patriot anywhere near the front line.
Bottom line is, of course, we can't really take information from any side at face value. We may never know for sure what got destroyed.
Anything's possible and it's more likely than not IMO there are engineers/operators from NATO countries helping with some of the more complex assets. Another question we may never get a true answer to.
Perun takes a look at the new US Aid package and its effect on the war.
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DanCar
Active Member
Since they aren't paying, they are missing that part of the equation. They have been criticized by experts for using high precision $40K shells on non high value targets as an example.
DanCar
Active Member
U.S. pays $20K each for old soviet combat aircraft. Possibly to use for spare parts or decoys.
www.businessinsider.com
US buys 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft from Russia's ally costing on average less than $20,000 each, report says
The US bought 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft from Kazakhstan for $1.5m.
www.businessinsider.com
DanCar
Active Member
Hopefully the invaders paid dearly for the little gains.
www.kyivpost.com
Quote:
The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces said Sunday Kyiv's position on the frontline had deteriorated and that Russia had made a number of recent battlefield gains.
Russia's troops have gone back on the offensive this year, capitalizing on an advantage in manpower and arms to press forward, particularly in the eastern Donetsk region.
"The situation at the front has worsened," Oleksandr Syrsky said in a Facebook post Sunday.
He said Ukrainian troops had "retreated" to new defensive lines further to the west in some areas, conceding the loss of territory to the advancing Russians.
"The enemy has concentrated its main efforts in several sectors, creating a significant advantage in forces and means," he said.
Russia had secured "tactical successes in some sectors," he admitted.
Ukraine Army Commander Says Situation 'Worsened'
Outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian forces struggle to hold Russians from breaking through on the frontline in the eastern Donbas region.
www.kyivpost.com
The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces said Sunday Kyiv's position on the frontline had deteriorated and that Russia had made a number of recent battlefield gains.
Russia's troops have gone back on the offensive this year, capitalizing on an advantage in manpower and arms to press forward, particularly in the eastern Donetsk region.
"The situation at the front has worsened," Oleksandr Syrsky said in a Facebook post Sunday.
He said Ukrainian troops had "retreated" to new defensive lines further to the west in some areas, conceding the loss of territory to the advancing Russians.
"The enemy has concentrated its main efforts in several sectors, creating a significant advantage in forces and means," he said.
Russia had secured "tactical successes in some sectors," he admitted.
DanCar
Active Member
Video says Russia will be quick to use tactical nukes on the battlefield. One possible solution is not to give them a clear target of concentrated troops.
U.S. pays $20K each for old soviet combat aircraft. Possibly to use for spare parts or decoys.
US buys 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft from Russia's ally costing on average less than $20,000 each, report says
The US bought 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft from Kazakhstan for $1.5m.
The Ukrainians still have MiG-29s and Su-24/25s. Buying those from Kazakhstan will help keep those flying. With the other aircraft there might be enough working parts between them to cobble together some operational aircraft.
Tiger
Active Member
I thought the goal is for Russia to fall on its own sword when either the troops come back home to roost or there are no more troops left to maintain or wage war and the women of Russia take over.
Hard to see this as Turkey abandoning transactionalism and embracing a multinational strategic ethical compass, but good to hear none-the-less:
