In all this and most others commentary people may be ignoring what may be the most intractable problem for Putin's Russia now.
That is lack of developers and other IT professionals. By one reliable source I am informed that some half million have already emigrated and as many more may do so soon. A huge proportion of Russia's expertise has dual nationality. This problem is critical right now and is impairing ever military and economic sector.
This, to the extent that it is true, is inhibiting every single component of human activity that is dependent on automation even computerized records.
The consequences are already obvious, are they not?
Thus far communication links are still functioning, including internet. Messaging to/from Russia still works quite normally.
What will happen when some node, somewhere breaks?
Their brain drain has been bad. Additionally the Russian school system has deteriorated so they don't have well trained kids coming along who can take those positions.
The Russians were good at IT after the fall of the USSR because while the USSR was not strong on tech, they did put an emphasis on STEM education and all those well trained kids were well poised to jump into IT in the 90s.
From what I've observed of Ukraine's ability to rally resources for this war, I think they have continued to teach STEM in schools which leaves them well poised to become a powerhouse in the EU once they rebuild.
How many of the russian army, looking at what is happening at home (assuming they have roaming access to unrestricted internet), Russia becoming (more) police state, how many want to go back? They should maybe declare independent and join the likes of the other batallions already fighting in Ukraine, to free Ukraine.
The troops in the Russian army are in the dark. One of the things they did was confiscate all personal electronics before the invasion.
If there is any truth to this, it would be pure insanity on the part of the Russians. Do they really think they are in any position to invade the west? Do they think that airstrikes into NATO countries would not elicit a response from NATO? I can only think that NATO would be forced to neutralize Russian strike capability via conventional means. With the whole world hoping that Russia wouldn't respond to this with nuclear weapons. Regardless, if Russia thinks this is World War 3, NATO best be preparing for this now and ready to meet the threat.
My partner came across something yesterday about Russian forces on the border of the Baltics getting more active. Her opinion was that Putin was going to start a war with the west to give him an excuse for losing. He was in the position of having to admit defeat to a smaller country, but if he can blame the US for crushing them he might be able to hold on in a neutered Russia like Saddam Hussein did in Iraq after the first Gulf War.
it looks like their decision making is even more delusional than that. I think the scenario most like is #3. And the US has the best offensive cyber attack ability in the world. If Russia tries to cyber attack the west, the US will fry the entire Russian internet in response.
One thing I've observed starting back in the 1990s. One thing most European countries have zero tolerance for is war on European soil. It's what triggered the unusual NATO intervention in the Balkans in the 1990s. The European reaction to the war in Ukraine has been similarly strong. NATO has not been able to act directly, but they have gone all in on everything possible minus direct military intervention.
There may be a little waver here and there among NATO members to Russian threats. Hungry is most likely, but I think the division is going to be vastly less than Russia expects.
I was also confused at the first part of the letter where he was talking about war between Iran and the US. I had already forgotten about the missile strike on the US embassy in Iraq. The US is not interested with a war with Iran right now and so they accepted Iran's apology and moved on.
I wonder if the calming of tensions between the US and Iran have changed their analysis any?
This ends one of two ways: full scale war between the world and Russia, or Putin gets retired (possibly no longer breathing, possibly in a dacha somewhere in Siberia).
If the war doesn't turn nuclear, Russia will not last long. Their military will be wiped off the map in a matter of days to a couple of weeks and they will be left with nothing. Sort of like the Black Knight scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
If it turns nuclear either we'll find out Russian maintenance of their nuclear stockpile has been poor and they will drop a number of dirty bombs on western cities from the missiles that make it out of the silos and the western nuclear powers will wipe Russia from the map. Or if the Russian nukes do work, it's pretty much game over for the human race. Some people will probably survive, but it won't be a life worth living.
I sincerely hope Putin gets retired before it gets to full scale war. That's the worst case scenario I was concerned about last week.
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