Russia/Ukraine conflict

[stopcrazypp]

They do call home:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501635351965798402

There was also the text message that was read in the UN that was so impactful in the earlier days of the war:
'Mama, this is so hard:' Ukraine UN envoy reads out what he claims are the final text messages sent by a slain Russian soldier
I would like to see where the source is for the claim that conscripts don't have access to phones to call or text home and what time period that applies to (now or earlier in the war).

 

[Xdama]

Says the Putin fanboy.

You’ve still to point out any statement I’ve made that indicate I’m a Putin fanboy, Mr Verhofstad I don’t think Boris is great … he’s a complete tool. However the alternatives when he was elected & even now are pretty piss poor too. If there was a “None of the above” statement on a voting slip, that’s where my X would go.

 

[Xdama]

Russia quits Council of Europe rights watchdog

Russia on Tuesday quit the Council of Europe, the continent's leading human rights watchdog, pre-empting an expected expulsion over its attack on neighbour Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

Not good news …. Not that Putin adhered to it’s output though

UK has no active system to provide early warning of a nuclear attack with funding row blamed

Civil defences and air raid sirens were dismantled at the end of the Cold War and new government emergency mobile phone alert system is facing delays as West faces increased threat from Russia

inews.co.uk

This sounds about right too lol. Wonder how much of an early warning it would be & what use it would be anyway. Isn’t it 20min flight time for an ICBM Russia to UK? So just enough to cause mass panic about something no ordinary person can do anything about‍♂. I think I’d rather die with as little notice as possible, personally….if they start chucking nukes about.

 

[wdolson]

They do call home:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501635351965798402

I would guess from a cell phone that either escaped the confiscation or a phone looted with all the other things the guy was talking about.

The Russian army has done worse. One of our neighbors growing up had been a civilian eastern Germany at the end of WW II. She said the Russians took every woman in the village and either raped them or killed them. When word got to the western allies this was happening the Russians decided to do something about it so they took some of the rapists and hung them. They put a noose around their neck and attached the other end to a tank gun barrel, the lifted them off the ground by raising the gun. They forced the surviving villagers to watch. She decided to get as far away from the Russians as possible and ended up in Los Angeles.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Isn’t it 20min flight time for an ICBM Russia to UK?

That's not an ICBM (same continent), that's a Theatre weapon. So for an air-launched cruise missle w. 2K km rge, maybe 12 min time-of-flight at Mach 10?

Kh-47M2 Kinzhal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

but hey, it's more likely to come from a sea-launch platform rather than an air-launched ASM anyway. Your early warning in London is the glow over the Eastern horizon.

 

[Xdama]

That's not an ICBM (same continent), that's a Theatre weapon. So for an air-launched cruise missle w. 2K km rge, maybe 12 min time-of-flight at Mach 10?

Kh-47M2 Kinzhal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

but hey, it's more likely to come from a sea-launch platform rather than an air-launched ASM anyway. Your early warning in London is the glow over the Eastern horizon.

Cheers, not a good enough signal for serious research on a turbine 8miles offshore

Either way I’ll still go for ignorance is bliss for the average punter.

 

[nativewolf]

You’ve still to point out any statement I’ve made that indicate I’m a Putin fanboy, Mr Verhofstad I don’t think Boris is great … he’s a complete tool. However the alternatives when he was elected & even now are pretty piss poor too. If there was a “None of the above” statement on a voting slip, that’s where my X would go.

The alternatives were far better, anything is better. And yes, you are a fan boy. Anybody in the UK today that can't recognize that Brexit was a Russian operation and needs to be reversed is either a Putin fanboy or a fool. Take your pick.

 

[petit_bateau]

Just saw this. Interested if others have more info on how this was likely accomplished - air attack?

Ukraine Strikes Back: Barrage Leaves Russian-Occupied Kherson Airbase In Flames
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44780/ukraine-strikes-back-barrage-leaves-russian-occupied-kherson-airbase-in-flames

My understanding is the Russians captured Kerson airport a while back, before the Ukraine got the southern sector more under control. The Russians are/were clearly using it both as a airport/heliport but also as a large troop/vehicle base. But one must be cautious interpreting the satellite imagery as (imho) some of the aircraft predate the Russian arrival.

Since then there have been multiple Ukraine attacks on the airfield. At least two such attacks are (imho) by rocket barrage, probably Grads which are a fairly basic unguided MLRS system. That would account for the scattering of craters around the airport. But there are also reports of a "night attack" by Ukraine naval infantry. That claim coincided with what (imho) was the first Grad attack, and at the time the Ukraine claimed approx 30 helicopters destroyed on the ground. This claim, imho, sat imagery did not confirm, though it would be entirely possible to disable a helicopter without it being visible on satellite - and depending on the Russian frontline repair capabilities some of that might also be repairable. (I've flown in Mil-8 Hips and they are at the more agricultural end of the spectrum, perfect for this stuff). Whether that attack was just the first Grad attack, or a troop assault as well has not been reported. Some subsequent imagery that dates to after a second Grad barrage also includes some items that make me wonder if perhaps the odd TB2 drone strike may have been mixed in. (I'm really not sure, the TB2s are so valuable they must be husbanding them carefully).

By the way I've picked up further snippets that tend to corroborate that at approx 600 Russian marines mutinied in the Black Sea prior to being ultimately offloaded back in Crimea where they originated. Reports vary from plain "mutiny" to "disagreed about weather conditions". Who knows, but it does tend to suggest something happened. At least some of that amphibious group is back loitering off of Odessa area, i.e. no longer in port and not in Sea of Azov.

This seems to be a fair summary of the overall status at present

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503970558681169920

 

[petit_bateau]

@petit_bateau Interesting times. What's the word on renewable plans there in the UK and Europe in general? Hear any specifics? Here in Virginia the first large offshore wind farm will come on line this summer I think but that was years in the work. Three coming soon in Mass as well.

I'm not sure if people realise but I do a daily world energy sector news update (a clippings service as we used to call them) about things that come across my desk which I think are significant most weekdays, see Energy Sector News .

If you look back at the past few weeks of that you'll se the EU is/has decided :
- halted Nordstream 2;
- restarted Norway - Poland (Baltics) gas pipe, due partly operational now Oct-22, fully complete Jan-2023
- accelerating its renewables programme (primarily wind, solar);
- (en)forcing effective gas storage refills & utilisation;
- pushing as hard & fast as possible to switch away from Russian oil/gas/coal (a complex subject, worth a post in its own right, but over the next 2-3 years they will achieve it, and in a full-on crisis they can achieve it by next winter albeit with considerable pain);
- speeding up integration of Ukraine & Moldova grids into EU grid (this will also depend on whatever state the Ukraine grid and nuke generators are left in, and who controls them);
- milder firming up of the buildings efficiency programme;
- pushing as hard as possible on the BEV switch;
- various decisions pending & being restudied on whether it is technically & economically feasible to adjust the planned coal/nuclear phase-outs to prioritise ramp-down of Russian supplies (it is a big elephant, best eaten in small mouthfulls).

Regarding UK the nasty party continues to fight internally like rats in a sack about whether to actually accelerate more renewables, or just claim credit for talking about it; and where to make a endlessly-postponed landing on nuclear newbuild capacity; and whether to do anything on buildings energy efficiency (where the Cons have historically caved in to the housebuilders). Basically the Cons know they've been rumbled as being pwned by Putin et all; had previously gotten frit over Chinese control of UK nuclear; and are now simultaneously going begging to the Saudis whilst saying the oil addiction must be kicked. Is it any wonder the energy strategy paper is again delayed when the fools are so hopelessly contradicted by reality. So basically just hoping that the technocrats will muddle through and allow the Con politicians to wriggle off the hook.

 

[Xdama]

The alternatives were far better, anything is better. And yes, you are a fan boy. Anybody in the UK today that can't recognize that Brexit was a Russian operation and needs to be reversed is either a Putin fanboy or a fool. Take your pick.

Ah ok so if someone doesn’t subscribe to your views / ideology then they’re an idiot then? Sounds much like Putin to me mate, very autocratic pushing dictatorial.
Again at no point have I said I don’t recognise Brexit was a “Putin” operation, what I have said is I work with what is available and that I voted neither for nor against as I was out of the country. At the time the alternative was a Labour party hellbent on taking the UK back to the 70’s which wasn’t a great time in Britain from people who were adult at the time tell me. Ultimately the leader of a political party is a figurehead not much else in UK, so Boris has no real power without getting anything past a 600+ house of commons followed by a similar number in the house of lords.
Do I believe Brexit will be reversed ….. I’d say we will rejoin the EU at some point ….it won’t be a reversal though, we’d have to join the Euro, probably end up providing troops to an EU army too. My own experience of joint ops / exercises with fellow Europeans, it’ll be a fustercluck for a number of years as the ideology between fighting forces is completely different plus the obvious language issue.
None of which make me a Putin fanboy so guess in your view I must be an idiot. Best put me down like Putin would do eh! Must be awful to live in the States but be so impacted by like in UK, I pity you, do you need a hug

 

[petit_bateau]

penaids show up on Iskanders

Russia’s Use Of Iskander Ballistic Missiles In Ukraine Exposes Secret Decoy Capability

The novel decoy, ejected from the base of the missile, is designed to confuse hostile radar and interceptor missiles.

www.thedrive.com

sensible analysis, one the Ukraine appears to be well aware of

Not Out of the Woods Yet: Assessing the Operational Situation in Ukraine

An assessment of Russian movements and successes in Ukraine indicates that Russian forces are advancing and may still achieve their goals. To survive the next few weeks, Ukrainian forces will need to adopt an operational plan based on exploiting their interior lines.

rusi.org

 

[Skipdd]

Encouraging if true..

Kremlin in unexpected U-turn after Kharkiv defeat: Russia is 'changing tone' as isolated Putin drops demands for Ukraine to surrender
https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-in-unexpected-u-turn-yet-another-defeat-overnight-russia-is-changing-tone-and-isolated-putin-drops-demands-for-ukraine-to-surrender/

 

[Artful Dodger]

This seems to be a fair summary of the overall status at present

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503970558681169920

That twitter acct is a gold-mine of UA intel. Daily post rollups listed here:

Franz-Stefan Gady's Threads – Thread Reader App

 

[jbcarioca]

Their brain drain has been bad. Additionally the Russian school system has deteriorated so they don't have well trained kids coming along who can take those positions.

The Russians were good at IT after the fall of the USSR because while the USSR was not strong on tech, they did put an emphasis on STEM education and all those well trained kids were well poised to jump into IT in the 90s.

From what I've observed of Ukraine's ability to rally resources for this war, I think they have continued to teach STEM in schools which leaves them well poised to become a powerhouse in the EU once they rebuild.
...


The troops in the Russian army are in the dark. One of the things they did was confiscate all personal electronics before the invasion.



...

I sincerely hope Putin gets retired before it gets to full scale war. That's the worst case scenario I was concerned about last week.

Mostly I agree but...some fundamental issues.
The vast majority of Russia's IT, analytic, mathematical and physics expertise in post-Soviet Russia came form Akadengorodok , the academic powerhouse city adjacent to Novosibirsk. It is pretty simplistic to minimize those capabilities. Personally, ever competent tech person I ever met from anywhere in the Moscow area came from there. not most-all. The plurality of students there were non-Rus, most had origins in Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Moldova etc, but most had been born in Siberia, usually children of physicist, mathematics or other tech parentage.

Post Soviet many of them have sought citizenship and passports from their ethnic origin, easy to do as a general rule during the 1990's especially, but pretty easy until recently.

What that means is that Russia, as we discuss this, is losing those people in droves. They left beginning a few weeks ago. Many are acutely sensitive to political change, although they tend not to say anything about that unless they REALLY trust their confidants.

As generalities about STEM check out the statistics for Estonia, clear number one in the world.

 

[jbcarioca]

Rumors now flying say Elvira Nabiullina may be leaving.
That single fact, if true, shows Russia is in horrible shape financially in ways we did not yet see.
No surprise, considering, but portending catastrophe that Putin cannot manage.

Beyond all else, his only option is retreat or nuclear. The last retreat during conquest, ignoring Chechnia I, was Afghanistan.

With all else we are days from definitive resolution, in my opinion. The question only 'how', not 'whether'.

My opinion. I'm often wrong.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Rumors now flying say Elvira Nabiullina may be leaving.

Thank-you for the insight into Russia. For those of us who don't know her by name, this departure means that Western sanctions are taking a big toll:

Elvira Nabiullina​

Former Minister of Economic Development of Russia
Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina is a Russian economist and current head of the Central Bank of Russia. She was Russian President Vladimir Putin's economic adviser from May 2012 to June 2013 after serving as minister of economic development and... Wikipedia
Born: October 29, 1963 (age 58 years), Ufa, Russia
Nationality: Russian
Spouse: Yaroslav Kuzminov
Office: Head of the Central Bank of Russia since 2013

Edit:

It sounds like she tried to resign last week:

"Last week, central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina tended her resignation, but this was refused by Putin."​

Ukraine conflict: Sanctions & recent developments

Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses recent developments in the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict and highlight five key implications.

www.wellington.com

 

[JRP3]

Did the Russians hack TMC? I couldn't access the site for a few minutes, anyone else have the same problem?

 

[UncaNed]

Did the Russians hack TMC? I couldn't access the site for a few minutes, anyone else have the same problem?

I had the same problem.

That's all I know about that.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

US has lower overall debt levels than most major economies.

View attachment 781516

Good to know

That graph is from Q1 2015. As I understand it, the US national debt has increased by some since...

 

[jbcarioca]

Thank-you for the insight into Russia. For those of us who don't know her by name, this departure means that Western sanctions are taking a big toll:

Elvira Nabiullina​

Former Minister of Economic Development of Russia
Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina is a Russian economist and current head of the Central Bank of Russia. She was Russian President Vladimir Putin's economic adviser from May 2012 to June 2013 after serving as minister of economic development and... Wikipedia
Born: October 29, 1963 (age 58 years), Ufa, Russia
Nationality: Russian
Spouse: Yaroslav Kuzminov
Office: Head of the Central Bank of Russia since 2013

Edit:

It sounds like she tried to resign last week:

"Last week, central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina tended her resignation, but this was refused by Putin."​

Ukraine conflict: Sanctions & recent developments

Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses recent developments in the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict and highlight five key implications.

www.wellington.com

Oops, She's Tatar not Russian.
The wiki on Ufa tells a little bit more:
Ufa

She has been one of the brightest stars of Russian economic policy. She has been really outstanding as a bank regulator and as chief architect of Russian monetary policy. Her adroitness has shown repeatedly in Rouble FX management. The biggest achievement she's had is imposing professional standards on bank supervision, not an easy task when several major banks, Sberbank and Alfa Bank for example, are owned and controlled by people with deeply ingrained political connections.

Nabiullina facilitated the establishment and rapid expansion of multi-currency ATM's, helped expand remote banking services to remote areas as well as major cities, and set up professional bank supervision that had strong positive effects on the stability and effectiveness of the banking system. Considering the state of banking in 1990 it is astonishing that she from 2013 has done so much.

My apologies if I sound like an advocate for her rather than a reporter. It's true. In current conditions if she leaves that is a truly horrible portent for Russian recovery from the catastrophe Putin has created with his hubris.