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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Only 40% of Russian missiles fired during this war have hit their targets, 20-30% have failed to launch or crashed in flight. An analysis of why
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

Trent Telenko concluded in an essay a few weeks ago that he thought only about 25% of Russian nukes were viable. Considering how bad their maintenance is and how old many of their missiles are, I think it might be much lower. 2/3 of the nuclear triad require missiles and most air dropped weapons now are missiles too.

Most of Russia's tactical missiles like the Iskander use solid fuel which is more stable, but most of the larger missiles are liquid fueled and one component of the fuel degrades the tanks over time. Solid fuel can go bad too. So can many other components of a missile that has probably not been stored in the most optimal environment.

On top of that there are the components of the nuclear weapons themselves. The radiation from decaying fuel breaks down the metals and electronics in the warhead. Hydrogen bombs use tritium which has a half life of 12.3 years, but it's still a tiny atom. The atom is the same size as a helium atom. Both hydrogen and helium will leak out of any container over time and hydrogen breaks down metal containers while it's escaping.

The smaller the nuclear warhead, the shorter its shelf life. The physics of being able to achieve a fission reaction gets trickier with a smaller core and it breaks down past the point where it will fission quicker. Meaning most tactical nuclear weapons need more frequent maintenance to stay viable.

The US maintains only a small number of tactical nuclear weapons (compared to the strategic stockpile), probably because they are such a pain to keep viable.

With so many bad missiles and a questionable nuclear stockpile Russia may not realistically be able to deploy a tactical nuke if they wanted to.

As I've said before, it's not something I want to find out to be true or not. The cost of being wrong is very high, and a bad nuke would still turn into a dirty bomb if it made it to its target.

for everyone else who TL/DR

Russian ICBM nukes will:
A. most likely not get anywhere close to intended target, eg land on Russia instead.
B. not explode, just splatter with radioactive junk
C. contaminate Russia and cause massive wave of deadly cancer across Russia.
 
If you have some friends with some cash to spare... I'am assuming the people behind this are legit, but I haven't checked it myself...

Credit to a Swedish blog that updates daily on the war. See below.


Here's the Swedish blog in question that deserves credit in this case:
 
How much money has Kissinger's firm Kissinger Associates received from the Kremlin Mobsters?

From 12/24/2016:

"
.../ Kissinger Associates doesn’t disclose its clients under U.S. lobbying laws. The firm once threatened to sue Congress to resist a subpoena for its client list. It has in the past advised American Express, Anheuser-Busch, Coca-Cola and Daewoo. But the firm does belong to the U.S.-Russia Business Council, a trade group that includes ExxonMobil, JPMorgan Chase and Pfizer. [My underline.] /...
"

Source:
 
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Zelensky has addressed Kissinger's remarks from Davos:

"
.../ But still in Davos, for example, Mr. Kissinger emerges from the deep past and says that a piece of Ukraine should be given to Russia. So that there is no alienation of Russia from Europe.

It seems that Mr. Kissinger's calendar is not 2022, but 1938, and he thought he was talking to an audience not in Davos, but in Munich of that time.

By the way, in the real year 1938, when Mr. Kissinger's family was fleeing Nazi Germany, he was 15 years old, and he understood everything perfectly. And nobody heard from him then that it was necessary to adapt to the Nazis instead of fleeing them or fighting them.

Symptomatic editorials began to appear in some Western media stating that Ukraine must allegedly accept so-called difficult compromises by giving up territory in exchange for peace.

Perhaps The New York Times in 1938 also wrote something similar. /...
"

Source:

Some news coverage about this:
 
How much money has Kissinger's firm Kissinger Associates received from the Kremlin Mobsters?

From 12/24/2016:

"
.../ Kissinger Associates doesn’t disclose its clients under U.S. lobbying laws. The firm once threatened to sue Congress to resist a subpoena for its client list. It has in the past advised American Express, Anheuser-Busch, Coca-Cola and Daewoo. But the firm does belong to the U.S.-Russia Business Council, a trade group that includes ExxonMobil, JPMorgan Chase and Pfizer. [My underline.] /...
"
Source:
Rudy V2.0?
 
Zelensky has addressed Kissinger's remarks from Davos:

"
.../ But still in Davos, for example, Mr. Kissinger emerges from the deep past and says that a piece of Ukraine should be given to Russia. So that there is no alienation of Russia from Europe.

It seems that Mr. Kissinger's calendar is not 2022, but 1938, and he thought he was talking to an audience not in Davos, but in Munich of that time.

By the way, in the real year 1938, when Mr. Kissinger's family was fleeing Nazi Germany, he was 15 years old, and he understood everything perfectly. And nobody heard from him then that it was necessary to adapt to the Nazis instead of fleeing them or fighting them.

Symptomatic editorials began to appear in some Western media stating that Ukraine must allegedly accept so-called difficult compromises by giving up territory in exchange for peace.

Perhaps The New York Times in 1938 also wrote something similar. /...
"

Source:

Some news coverage about this:

Not sure Kissinger has the guns to handle a verbal battle with Zelensky. While he may be right from a Bismarckian whole Europe perspective, with Ukraine’s current situation and momentum Zelensky would never entertain such trade-offs.
 
From Garry Kasparov's official Twitter account (Link to his Twitter below):

"
Three months into Putin's genocidal total war on Ukraine, Putin's Global Rescue Team is assembling again. Heads of state, media, pundits, all the usual suspects eager to preserve a horrific status quo & sacrifice thousands of Ukrainian lives, and call it peace. 1/13

Ukraine is bleeding, without the weapons it asked for. Putin is rushing to annex more Ukrainian territory, issuing passports and currency, killing and deporting thousands and bringing in Russians, as he's been doing for 8 years in occupied Crimea and Donbas. 2/13

The profiteers and appeasers, working with or for Putin, like Kissinger, join the false "peacemakers" in France and Italy to send more Ukrainians to the hell of Russian occupation, dozens of Buchas to come. Who are they to tell Ukrainians how to live and die? 3/13

Putin knows the weapons will get there, in less than a month, so he is desperate to push the story of a stalemate, to get a ceasefire he won't honor. Under that cover he will consolidate territory, continue annexation, and liquidate any resistance. He's done it before. 4/13

Some allies are slow-rolling weapons deliveries, afraid of Ukrainian victory. If Ukraine makes more progress pushing Russia back, Western leaders might lose their coveted "peace for our time" moment and not be able to rush back to Russian gas & oil. 5/13

Ukraine needs air cover, while allies point fingers and play hot potato with who needs what permissions to provide jets and other weapons. Do they want the carnage to end, or just cover it up, postpone more, guaranteeing it will be worse next time? 6/13

Macron hoped Zelensky would be a Marshal Pétain for Ukraine, but he's turned out to be more a De Gaulle. Ukrainians don't want to live in a Vichy Republic under Putin's fascist regime. So they fight like hell for their nation--and for Europe and the free world. 7/13

But Europe is not fighting like hell for Ukraine. The "union" is not united, not standing for the values of its founding. A war for life & liberty has no room for friendly deals with aggressor dictators. What do France, Italy, Hungary say they stand for in doing so? 8/13

The Putin Rescue Team is unashamed even after the horrors of Mariupol and Bucha. Editorials still call for off-ramps and deals with a war criminal. If only these appeasers, safe and sound and well-fed, had a tenth of the courage Ukrainians have under fire. 9/13

Putin pushing for a deal is a sign to keep the pressure on, to destroy his invading army and to bankrupt him and his mafia. US leadership is required to keep turning the financial screws, to show them things will not improve until Ukraine is whole and free. 10/13

Stop thinking about concessions Ukraine can make. They are paying a terrible price in blood, with decades of rebuilding to come. They are paying for years of weakness and corruption of the European nations that eagerly did business & diplomacy with their invader. 11/13

Ukraine needs every weapon they ask for without hesitation. The free world is lucky to have a brave and skilled Ukrainian military on the front line of a war they never wanted, a war the West tried to pretend did not exist. They aren't a proxy, they are a partner. 12/13

Bankrupt Putin & his regime. Give Ukraine what it needs to win. Shame anyone who would rescue Putin from suffering the consequences of his murderous war. Ukraine must choose, and as long as they choose to fight we must fight with them. Glory to Ukraine. 13/13
[My underline.]
"

Source:
 
More than only poor quality, would you drive a 50 year old car?

The T-72 tanks which is by far the most common tank in the war was put in production in 1968.
1968!
Even the latest updates are still decades old.

They are not just poor quality, they are obsolete.

PS, the T-90 is a version of the T-72, and the T-80 is based on older T-64 with T-72 features.

(granted the US M1 Abrams tank is developed in the 1980's, not much newer. Other nations do have more recent designs).

When I got my 2016 Model S, I was driving a 24 year old car I bought new, but I'm a weirdo. :)

Tanks, like military aircraft get upgraded over time. The youngest B-52 was completed before a lot of people here with grand kids were born, but they are still flying. They have been updated several times. Many of the T-72s in Ukraine have a 2016 upgrade kit, which ironically, was made in Ukraine. The T-73B3 is a 2010/2011 upgrade kit.

The Russians have been recycling tank designs since the 1960s, all the operational tanks have roots in the T-62 and T-64.

The M-1 Abrams has been updated too.

A lot of the problem the Russians are having with their tanks is the way they are using them rather than the tanks themselves. The T-72 is not the latest tank, but it should be adequate if used right. Tanks offer a lot of punch on the battlefield, but they are by their nature blind to small threats like infantry with anti tank weapons. Even the best armored tanks can be immobilized by a broken track or a damaged road wheel.

Early in WW II some armies tried to field units that were all tanks, but quickly found that didn't work. Between the wars the Germans figured out how to best use them. A Panzer division had quite a few infantry that were embedded with the tanks. The troops were carried in some kind of vehicle, trucks early war and later half tracks or riding on the tanks themselves. When in a safe zone the infantry would travel in their vehicles, but as soon as they contacted the enemy, the infantry dismounted and moved forward with the tanks on foot.

Infantry on foot are much better at spotting enemy ambushes and either dealing with them on their own or directing the tank to take out the enemy position. Virtually all tanks and heavily armored vehicles of that era had multiple machine guns to use on enemy infantry if they got close.

At the battle of Kursk the Germans delayed the start of the battle to complete and bring to the front a relative handful of super tank destroyers called Ferdinands. The Tiger tank came out of a competition between Porsche and Henschel. Porsche was so confident they would win, they started construction of their chassis before the competition was decided. In the end Henschel got the contract and the Porsche chassis were sitting there. The Germans, never letting a vehicle go to waste converted these into super tank destroyers with and armored box instead of a turret and a more powerful version of the famed German 88mm gun.

In their rush to convert the tanks they didn't put any machine guns on the vehicle. For the battle of Kursk they had sharpshooters riding on the Ferdinands instead. The sharpshooters quickly got wounded or killed leaving the Ferdinands with no protection other than their armor. Most were quickly disabled. The remaining Ferdinands were reworks to add machine guns and were sent to Italy now called the Elefant. It did much better with some machine gun protections and a few Elefants are museum pieces today.

The best tank in the world is vulnerable against an army with any kind of anti-tank capability if their infantry aren't operating dismounted around the tank. The US is lucky that in Desert Storm the Iraqis didn't have anti-tank squads in priest holes in front of the Republican Guard. The M-1s came charging in without infantry support and would have been sitting ducks for AT weapons. Even if the weapons couldn't punch through the armor, they could break the tracks and leave the tank disabled.

The Russians have an amateur army. Their training regime is poor, the majority of their troops are very badly educated before the army, and their commanders don't have the first clue about combat doctrine. Their military is so corrupt most officers have spent their careers either ratholing money or paying off gangsters who prey on the military personnel.

When developed country's armies have exercises, they are to evaluate doctrine and make adjustments as necessary as well as give the troops some first hand training. When the Russians conduct exercises it's all about demonstrating to the world how powerful their army is. It's a show, not an actual exercise.

Authoritarian regimes almost always front. Most are run by people with Narcissist Personalty Disorders or people with a serious narcissism problem. For narcissists it's all about what people see and the show they put on. Substance is not important. So the military is a show piece that might be able to fight off a weak enemy, but it isn't really a serious force.

Serious governments run by people who are more concerned with governing than "look at me" (though every politician has some narcissism or they wouldn't be there, for the good ones governing is more important than what people think of them), the military is supposed to actually do the job. Sometimes people ride in the military who are unqualified, but most of the time the people at the top got there on merit. They are professionals who want their military to be capable of doing the job, not just look good.

So the developed countries have doctrines they have honed for decades. They also plan for every contingency. The troops train and they do constant maintenance on their equipment so if war does come, everybody and everything is ready. Countries with hostile neighbors usually have a well laid out war plan if their neighbor gets hostile. Israel has done this, so has Taiwan and Finland. Israel has had to put their plan into action multiple times and they have won every defensive war they have ever fought.
 
More to the point: Authoritarian regimes do not want a military which is actually that powerful, because the military has a history of overthrowing regimes it doesn't like if it is powerful enough. So Putin has long pretended the Russian military is as great as the old Soviet one, but he knows that he can't let it actually be strong enough to threaten him. Unfortunately for him, it's also not strong enough to seriously threaten Ukraine, much less EU/NATO aligned nations, either.

One of China's biggest issues today is that they want a military strong enough to threaten their neighbors and possibly the US, but if their military gets too strong, it will threaten the CCP's base of power. This is something that China has long had to balance because on the one hand they need a certain amount of military power to invade Taiwan, but that same power could also be used to occupy Beijing and depose Xi Jinping.
 
More to the point: Authoritarian regimes do not want a military which is actually that powerful, because the military has a history of overthrowing regimes it doesn't like if it is powerful enough. So Putin has long pretended the Russian military is as great as the old Soviet one, but he knows that he can't let it actually be strong enough to threaten him. Unfortunately for him, it's also not strong enough to seriously threaten Ukraine, much less EU/NATO aligned nations, either.

Kamil Galeev had a long essay about this very thing several weeks back and I agree. Putin has been far more concerned about internal rebellion than invasion from the outside. The Russians in general are paranoid about outside invasion, they've been through it a lot, but Putin was a KGB agent based in Germany. He probably understands the west has no interest in invading Russia, but he's very willing to play that card to keep his people onside.

One of China's biggest issues today is that they want a military strong enough to threaten their neighbors and possibly the US, but if their military gets too strong, it will threaten the CCP's base of power. This is something that China has long had to balance because on the one hand they need a certain amount of military power to invade Taiwan, but that same power could also be used to occupy Beijing and depose Xi Jinping.

I'm not sure the CCP is going to be around all that much longer. From what I hear, people are talking about the Mandate of Heaven which is a concept in China that goes back more than 2000 years. The idea is that the spirit realm blesses whoever is ruling China with prosperity and peace for the people. This is called the Mandate of Heaven. When they have tired of the ruling regime they withdraw the mandate and the country sees natural disasters, unrest, economic instability, plagues, etc.

In the last few years the country has seen all of these and even though the CCP has done everything it can to scrub this from the collective memory, it's still a meme in Chinese society.

The CCP have basically made a bargain with the people that the CCP can run everything and the people see economic prosperity. To their credit, the CCP has not been a kleptocracy to the degree seen in Russia (there is some corruption, but less than Russia). And people in China have seen their fortunes rise as the country industrialized.

However they are now facing some serious problems. To keep the construction industry going they over built housing to a massive level. Their reaction to the pandemic has kept people from dying, but it's caused massive economic disruption, probably more than justified at this point, internal tensions are growing, and they have seen some massive flooding the last couple of summers. 2020 was one of the wettest summers on record.

At the same time the population is aging. The ramifications of the one child policy is their population demographics are out of whack. An economy with a strong future shows up like a pyramid in the demographics map, the youngest are the largest part and the oldest are the smallest. China was that way when they started to modernize, but now the fattest part of the graph is people 40-70. As those 40 year olds reach retirement age, there will not be young workers to replace them. Taxes have to be raised on the young to pay the pensions for the old and with a labor shortage, wages will go up pricing China out of the market for manufacturing cheap goods.
Demographics of China - Wikipedia

Russia's population graph looks similar to China's
Demographics of Russia - Wikipedia

Largely due to immigration, the US's chart isn't so bad
Demographics of the United States - Wikipedia

Japan was where China is today in the early 1990s. Their economy went into a slump and hasn't recovered. It will when the demographic bulge dies off.

Many European countries have been trying to do what the US has done, allowing in non-white immigration to fill in the gaps left by white children not being born, but there has been a lot of backlash from the white natives.

Japan and China are against immigration, so they are having to ride out the demographic problems the hard way. Japan is a very homogeneous society and a stable democracy so they accepted the constriction in the economy and rolled with it. China doesn't have that level of homogeneity in their society. The downturn will hit China harder than it did Japan.

On another note, it looks like WindOfChange is thinking along the same lines as I am about Kadyrov's motives
Ramzan Kadyrov, Russian Nukes, Impending total collapse and/or civil war, and much more Kadyrov! - 16th letter from the Wind of Change inside the FSB

Kadyrov is keeping his powder dry expecting some kind of unrest in Russia when the true impact of this war finally hits home.
 
Kadyrov has always been treated by Putin as untrustworthy, I'm sure they are watching him like a hawk in case he tries another Chechen rebellion.

According to WindOfChange, Kadyrov has replaced his elite personnel in Ukraine with hangers on who are doing all the videos. The Russians don't exactly know where Kadyrov's elite are. They suspect they are back in Chechnya which also has signs of fully mobilizing and it isn't on orders of the Kremlin.

Kadyrov is all rah rah war because he wants the Russian army to get as weakened as possible. Kadyrov is betting on some sort of unrest in the coming months and he wants to use that moment for Chechnya to break away from Russia.
 
According to WindOfChange, Kadyrov has replaced his elite personnel in Ukraine with hangers on who are doing all the videos. The Russians don't exactly know where Kadyrov's elite are. They suspect they are back in Chechnya which also has signs of fully mobilizing and it isn't on orders of the Kremlin.

Kadyrov is all rah rah war because he wants the Russian army to get as weakened as possible. Kadyrov is betting on some sort of unrest in the coming months and he wants to use that moment for Chechnya to break away from Russia.

Wonder if Kadyrov is part of this:

 
  • Informative
Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
In the meantime the brutal reality is that Ukraine has lost Black Sea access and Sea of Azov access. Russia has gained that and Kherson and 95% of Lugansk and Donbass and still threatens Kharkiv, and has likely c.10k military prisoners as pawns, plus about 1m civilian as hostages. And the usual suspects are running a Friends Of Putin Club that will recommend accepting the ceasefire and grain export and gas export deal that Russia will table in the next few weeks.

The issue is to maintain Western resolve and cohesion and support Ukraine effectively in a way that allows Ukraine to take back what it has lost. That is going to be difficult, but that is the sober reality.
 
In the meantime the brutal reality is that Ukraine has lost Black Sea access and Sea of Azov access. Russia has gained that and Kherson and 95% of Lugansk and Donbass and still threatens Kharkiv, and has likely c.10k military prisoners as pawns, plus about 1m civilian as hostages. And the usual suspects are running a Friends Of Putin Club that will recommend accepting the ceasefire and grain export and gas export deal that Russia will table in the next few weeks.

The issue is to maintain Western resolve and cohesion and support Ukraine effectively in a way that allows Ukraine to take back what it has lost. That is going to be difficult, but that is the sober reality.

If Ukraine doesn't get enough weapons the sanctions must hold:

 
This is the more optimistic view re the Donbass situation

 
You beat me by a couple of years. The first new vehicle I purchased I drove for 21 years. I would have driven it longer, but the clutch was so stiff I got a repetitive stress injury.

Even after 24 years my car was in pretty good shape. The exterior finish could have used some touch ups, but the cloth seats still looked mostly new and it still ran great, though the carpet was looking worn. My mechanic wanted to buy the car from me. Last time he serviced the transmission he said it looked new inside. Unfortunately he had a heart attack and died a little over a year before I was going to sell the car.

I did find it funny I missed CD players in cars. I went from a cassette player to USB sticks and internet connected media.
 
This is the more optimistic view re the Donbass situation

Some more on this...

I have referred to the Swedish author and blogger Lars Wilderäng previously in some posts (see link below). He has been updating daily on Putler's war since it began. He's married to a woman from Russia, and he also did Swedish basic conscript military service in some sort of mechanized infantry unit (I think that's the correct term) in his youth...

I ran some of what he's written today through Google translate and then corrected 'Google's' mistakes:

"…/ the retreats Ukraine have made have been tactical and operationally sensible and are not about Ukraine being defeated on the battlefield. And retreating Ukrainian troops from for example Lyman have not looked worn out, broken or defeated. Their fighting morale and their will to continue the fight seems to be absolutely unwavering. There is no point in itself to defend every square meter of Ukrainian land beyond the current main goal which is to inflict maximum Russian losses. After retreating the Ukrainians just choose a better defensive line and repeat until the Russian attacks have culminated. And given the increasingly weak Russian offensive – it works. /…/

The point is that you have to ask yourself why you should defend a certain object, and what you achieve tactically and operationally by defending said object. And if it is to be defended, how and at what price. It is about winning the war, not about winning the Battle of Lyman, for example. [My underline] /..."

Source:
 
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Some more on this...

I have referred to the Swedish author and blogger Lars Wilderäng previously in some posts (see link below). He has been updating daily on Putler's war since it began. He's married to a woman from Russia, and he also did Swedish basic conscript military service in some sort of mechanized infantry unit (I think that's the correct term) in his youth...

I ran some of what he's written today through Google translate and then corrected 'Google's' mistakes:

"…/ the retreats Ukraine have made have been tactical and operationally sensible and are not about Ukraine being defeated on the battlefield. And retreating Ukrainian troops from for example Lyman have not looked worn out, broken or defeated. Their fighting morale and their will to continue the fight seems to be absolutely unwavering. There is no point in itself to defend every square meter of Ukrainian land beyond the current main goal which is to inflict maximum Russian losses. After retreating the Ukrainians just choose a better defensive line and repeat until the Russian attacks have culminated. And given the increasingly weak Russian offensive – it works. /…/

The point is that you have to ask yourself why you should defend a certain object, and what you achieve tactically and operationally by defending said object. And if it is to be defended, how and at what price. It is about winning the war, not about winning the Battle of Lyman, for example. [My underline] /..."

Source:
Exactly this. In this sort of modern war - where most of the fight is artillery vs artillery/tanks you can't stay put for long.

From the very beginning, russians have been fighting with WW2 tactics vs modern ukrainians.