Even the russians know the answer to this; the Ukrainians traded territory for time. It was another killing zone where they could bleed energy out of Russia, reduce momentum (it has been 8 months to capture a small town with no strategic value), and gain time to organize events for their own counteroffensive after mud season. Here we are a few weeks to go and the majority of the energy of the entire russian armed forces has been on this one insignificant town. Thousand and thousands dead. Huge waste of artillery shells. Huge expenditure in small arms ammo, fuel, food, etc.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Two Ukrainian pilots are currently in the United States undergoing an assessment to determine how long it could take to train them to fly attack aircraft, including F-16 fighter jets, according to two congressional officials and a senior U.S. official.
The Ukrainians’ skills are being evaluated on simulators at a U.S. military base in Tucson, Arizona, the officials said, and they may be joined by more of their fellow pilots soon.
Two Ukrainian pilots are in the U.S. for training assessment on attack aircraft, including F-16s
Thread by @WarintheFuture on Thread Reader App
@WarintheFuture: The Battle of #Bakhmut has now raged since August 2022. The massive human and material resources expended by Russians on this objective may soon necessitate a Ukrainian withdrawal. 1/25 🧵 2/ Back in...…
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Great thread on Ukraine as it looks to disengage in Bakhmut
petit_bateau
Active Member
Several months ago (in the Autumn - 2022) some information came to light that the cumulative UKR:RU loss rates (KIA) were a factor of 1:6.
In the last few days there was some info that the ratio is 1:7 in the current fighting.
UKR are being very parsimonious with their losses, rightly so. At a guess I'd say they are currently prepared to take on elective engagements where they can predict a 1:6 or better loss ratio, and where the engagement is helpful for preparing ('shaping') the ground situation for the next phase. Bakhmut appears to fit that criteria. As to what weapons UKR are putting into the Bakhmut area, I am sure that UKR has good reasons for the choices they are making.
The US assessing Ukranian pilots for F16 training is a very good sign. It would be wonderful if they could get some of those aircraft in time for their spring offensive.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
BitJam
Active Member
This interview has a lot of insights into what is going on in Russia and why.
0:00 Welcome
1:13 The war
2:20 Being Russian in the West during the war
6:14 Personal background
8:59 The YouTube channel
10:54 Support for the war in Russia
14:12 Potential for protests
16:53 Security forces
21:02 The army
25:24 Who comes after Putin?
29:46 Why do people go to war?
33:02 Getting Russians politically engaged
40:54 How can the West help?
43:29 Being relevant for a Russian audience
46:56 Room for optimism?
48:19 Can Putin end the war?
Opposition politics in Russia: Interview with Maxim Katz
0:00 Welcome
1:13 The war
2:20 Being Russian in the West during the war
6:14 Personal background
8:59 The YouTube channel
10:54 Support for the war in Russia
14:12 Potential for protests
16:53 Security forces
21:02 The army
25:24 Who comes after Putin?
29:46 Why do people go to war?
33:02 Getting Russians politically engaged
40:54 How can the West help?
43:29 Being relevant for a Russian audience
46:56 Room for optimism?
48:19 Can Putin end the war?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
There is a scheme being discussed for Rheinmetall to produce Panther KF51 tanks in Western Ukraine:
German Leopard and Panther Tank-Maker Wants to Build Factory in Ukraine
"Papperger told the Rheinische Post that a plant could be built in Ukraine for about 200 million euros ($212 million) and produce up to 400 Panthers a year."
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, reminds me of a Headline splashed in The Right Stuff: "Nazi scientists attack Mexico from their base in U.S.".
Cheers!
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Why? The F-16 isn't particularly effective as a ground attack aircraft. It'll be of more use AFTER the inevitable cease-fire, for the years of airspace / border protection patrols. What Ukraine needs in the near-term is ground-mobile air-defense systems (gun and missile), and an AWACS or two wouldn't hurt...
Tell that to the Saddam/Chirac nuclear weapons program.Why? The F-16 isn't particularly effective as a ground attack aircraft. It'll be of more use AFTER the inevitable cease-fire, for the years of airspace / border protection patrols. What Ukraine needs in the near-term is ground-mobile air-defense systems (gun and missile), and an AWACS or two wouldn't hurt...
I looked up the article. I hate it when news stories use vague language like this one does. Early in the article they say the Russians are attacking Ukrainian positions with "firearms and shovels". Are we talking mostly firearms with the occasional shovel? Are some people only armed with shovels or are some people using them as an ersatz bayonet?
It would be significant if there were Russian troops who were only armed with shovels attacking Ukrainian positions. But the article is too vague to know if that is actually what's happening. The mobiks have been getting some pretty poor weaponry, so I wouldn't be surprised if some are only getting shovels for weapons. I was joking a month or so back that newly mobilized were going to get sharpened sticks to fight with.
And small arms shortages have happened in the Russian army in the past. During the defense of Moscow in 1941 the Soviets took raw recruits with no training and sent them into combat with orders to pick up a weapon off someone who has fallen. They got away with it that time because trained troops from the Soviet Far East were in transit to Moscow and the raw recruits only had to plug the gap for a week or so. When Stalin got intelligence that Japan was going to attack the United States rather than Russia, he freed up a lot of the troops defending the eastern frontier to throw into the Battle for Moscow.
Why? The F-16 isn't particularly effective as a ground attack aircraft. It'll be of more use AFTER the inevitable cease-fire, for the years of airspace / border protection patrols. What Ukraine needs in the near-term is ground-mobile air-defense systems (gun and missile), and an AWACS or two wouldn't hurt...
The US and Ukraine are being cagey about what information is being shared, but the US has admitted to sharing a fair bit of information with Ukraine. The US has had an AWACS airborne over the Black Sea almost constantly since the war began. It's capable of seeing all the airspace within Ukraine. They have probably told the Ukrainians on many occasions when the Russians were mounting air attacks.
Softening up for the Spring offensive?
@Artful Dodger It is fine for launching harm and JDAM-er. Can also intercept and destroy drones and even slow cruise missles.
BitJam
Active Member
Perhaps the best argument I've seen for ceding Crimea to Russia in order to avoid a possible nuclear attack. The problem with promoting nuclear blackmail is addressed at 49:40. Acton claims that China has already been deterred from invading Taiwan ten times over. He says promoting nuclear blackmail by rewarding Russia is greatly overblown. This seems terribly short-sighted to me.
Acton claims the trigger for possible Russian use of nuclear weapons would be a large scale land invasion of Crimea. Curiously, he seems to totally ignore the most likely way Ukraine will assault Crimea which is with a siege, just like they did with the city of Kherson by cutting off most heavy transport across the Dnieper. He goes so far as to claim that the ability to cut off Kherson was a unique geographic situation that does not pertain to Crimea!!!
Acton also ignores what Biden says he will do if Putin uses nukes: massive (presumably non-nuclear) retaliation that would quickly end the war. Acton seems to see only two possibilities: ceding Crimea to Russia soonish, or ceding Crimea to Russia after Russia uses nukes which would have much worse ramifications. So he suggests the West cut off support from Ukraine before it invades Crimea.
ISTM if this is a possibility the West wants to keep open then the slow ramp up military aid makes sense in order to let Ukraine take back land to the pre Feb. 2022 borders but not enough for them to attack Crimea. Of course, this will lead to a situation where the land bridge to Crimea is cut, the water supply to Crimea is cut, and (presumably) the Kerch bridge to Crimea is cut. It's doubtful that ceding Crimea to Russia at this point would lead to a stable political situation. If Russia keeps Crimea then it's going to want/need a water supply and a land bridge. This is one of the reasons they attacked Ukraine in 2022.
The unstated dilemma is that Putin needs a "win" to save face and stay in power. But by giving him a "win" we are rewarding and promoting wars of imperialistic expansion. Another unstated problem is that Ukraine's stance on ceding Crimea changed fundamentally after the atrocities at Bucha and elsewhere were discovered.
It seems obvious to me that the plan Acton proposes is one of the best ways possible to ensure nuclear weapons get used. Cutting off aid to Ukraine before they take Crimea is telling Putin he can have Crimea and we won't stop him because we are afraid of his nukes. Ukraine may not win but they're not going to stop at the border of Crimea. We then face the situation Acton says is most likely to cause a nuclear strike but with the West putting vastly less restraint on Russia, basically giving him a green light.
Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off
Acton claims the trigger for possible Russian use of nuclear weapons would be a large scale land invasion of Crimea. Curiously, he seems to totally ignore the most likely way Ukraine will assault Crimea which is with a siege, just like they did with the city of Kherson by cutting off most heavy transport across the Dnieper. He goes so far as to claim that the ability to cut off Kherson was a unique geographic situation that does not pertain to Crimea!!!
Acton also ignores what Biden says he will do if Putin uses nukes: massive (presumably non-nuclear) retaliation that would quickly end the war. Acton seems to see only two possibilities: ceding Crimea to Russia soonish, or ceding Crimea to Russia after Russia uses nukes which would have much worse ramifications. So he suggests the West cut off support from Ukraine before it invades Crimea.
ISTM if this is a possibility the West wants to keep open then the slow ramp up military aid makes sense in order to let Ukraine take back land to the pre Feb. 2022 borders but not enough for them to attack Crimea. Of course, this will lead to a situation where the land bridge to Crimea is cut, the water supply to Crimea is cut, and (presumably) the Kerch bridge to Crimea is cut. It's doubtful that ceding Crimea to Russia at this point would lead to a stable political situation. If Russia keeps Crimea then it's going to want/need a water supply and a land bridge. This is one of the reasons they attacked Ukraine in 2022.
The unstated dilemma is that Putin needs a "win" to save face and stay in power. But by giving him a "win" we are rewarding and promoting wars of imperialistic expansion. Another unstated problem is that Ukraine's stance on ceding Crimea changed fundamentally after the atrocities at Bucha and elsewhere were discovered.
It seems obvious to me that the plan Acton proposes is one of the best ways possible to ensure nuclear weapons get used. Cutting off aid to Ukraine before they take Crimea is telling Putin he can have Crimea and we won't stop him because we are afraid of his nukes. Ukraine may not win but they're not going to stop at the border of Crimea. We then face the situation Acton says is most likely to cause a nuclear strike but with the West putting vastly less restraint on Russia, basically giving him a green light.
Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off
Dreadnought
Member
If (or rather, when) Ukraine drives a wedge down to the coast anywhere between Melitopol and Mariupol, this will cut russian supply lines to the west. Crimea itself and any forces in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia need to be supplied via Kerch bridge or through naval communication lines. The Kerch bridge and the strait of Kerch as well as the sea of Azov will be in range of Himars and anti-naval rockets.
The situation will be quite similar to the liberation of Kherson. Ukraine only needs to wait until russian troops run out of supplies before they roll up the area north of Crimea.
Even if Ukraine selects Melitopol to drive down the spearhead (instead of further east), this opens the door to recapture more land mass than in the Charkiv counteroffensive. Such a massive setback, combined with Crimea under siege plus several tens of thousands of additional casualties that will have incurred until then, I consider it more likely that too many russians will realise that this is a lost cause and political support for a continuation will collapse. But even if the realization still doesn't sink in yet with russia, Ukraine will gain a much shorter front line from this and can concentrate their forces on the Donbas for further counteroffensive operations.
The situation will be quite similar to the liberation of Kherson. Ukraine only needs to wait until russian troops run out of supplies before they roll up the area north of Crimea.
Even if Ukraine selects Melitopol to drive down the spearhead (instead of further east), this opens the door to recapture more land mass than in the Charkiv counteroffensive. Such a massive setback, combined with Crimea under siege plus several tens of thousands of additional casualties that will have incurred until then, I consider it more likely that too many russians will realise that this is a lost cause and political support for a continuation will collapse. But even if the realization still doesn't sink in yet with russia, Ukraine will gain a much shorter front line from this and can concentrate their forces on the Donbas for further counteroffensive operations.
I haven't taken the time to watch this, but from what you say here it sounds like Acton is completely missing the diplomatic picture worldwide. Putin shifted his nuclear threats shortly after meeting with Xi Jingping. China has no desire to see nuclear weapons used. They would be downwind. And there have been hints coming out of the US that Biden has promised a large scale conventional response to the use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
Another factor is nobody outside of Russia knows the condition of Russia's nuclear arsenal. Nuclear weapons require a lot of maintenance and the smaller the yield of the weapon, the shorter the service intervals are. Smaller warheads degrade faster. We do know that the Russians tend to be fairly sloppy with maintenance of everything else and they are not putting the kind of money into maintaining their nuclear arsenal the US is.
There is a chance that Russia doesn't actually have any working tactical weapons.
The political situation inside Russia is also becoming unstable. There are pundits beginning to talk about how Russia might lose this war. The will to keep throwing away lives for a pointless war is weakening. It was never very strong to begin with. The Russians have been able to explain away their losses thus far: the whole attack on Kyiv was just a feint, Kherson was a strategic repositioning after they "achieved their goals", they didn't want Kharkhiv anyway, etc. But people are seeing through the lies and more losses will make it more difficult to keep up the lies.
By the time the Ukrainians are knocking on Crimea's door the Kremlin may still want to fight, but there may not be anybody left outside the Kremlin who wants to continue. Some leaders can get away with some ghastly things, but if enough people decide they are done with that leader, the leader will be lucky if they can live in exile somewhere. Putin has cultivated a sense of powerlessness in the Russian people which helps his pack of cronies to rob the country blind, but push people hard enough and someone will grow a spine eventually.
Earlier today someone here posted an interview with Maxim Katz who is an independent Russian journalist living in Israel. He has a YouTube channel in Russian for Russians and he said his viewership within Russia is growing.
