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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Reuters article talks about how Nordstrom sabotage was likely Russian and/or Ukrainian nationals, likely opposed to Putin. A couple of interesting details in the article, but I'm not sure how much is actually confirmed vs press speculation. We all know Reuters isn't 100% reliable...
 
A long (over an hour) very pro-Ukrainian discussion of the war with historian Timothy Snyder and Deputy Mayor of Kyiv, Konstantin Usov, introduced by historian Marci Shore. The audio/video quality is not great but the insights and backstory make it worthwhile. This relaxed, non-combative discussion was a refreshing break from most of the coverage. They're not trying to win an argument, they're just sharing stories with friends.


The Ukrainians have been exporting calm, or sanity to everyone else.
[prewar:] "No, Zylensky's not going to run. He's a little guy used to resisting big guys, he's not going to run."
By remaining [the Ukrainians] sent us this big lesson in sanity [...] democracy involves being calm and taking risks.
 
😂 ... doesn't have time to speed-watch a 20-minue video (@ 3x speed about 7mins) but goes on to write a post almost as long as a novel ;) /s

I'm a visual learner. I don't take in audio information as well as I do visual. I can read and understand something quicker than listening to something. There is a lot of good audio information, but I need to listen to it at 1x speed. It took me about 10 minutes to write that post.

I did watch that video. The summation in the post I was responding to hit al the highlights.

Some professional intel sources have had a hard time letting go of the ideas that were gospel before the war. Most western professional intel organizations deemed Russia a near peer adversary before the war. They made a lot of assumptions about Russia's capabilities that have proven to be wrong. Among them that Russia's logistics capability was similar to what NATO had when it was far more primitive. They also assumed that Russia had trained their troops to utilize all the capabilities of the BTG organization.

The BTG structure is a great one for a small army like the Netherlands which has a small but well trained force. It's a very bad fit for the Russian army which has a high percentage of conscripts, no viable NCO corps, and due to corruption has a very poor training regime.

Russia has adapted during the war as best they could with what they had. When they had enough artillery ammunition and the tubes to throw a lot of ammunition at Ukraine, they were able to pummel the Ukrainians and take ground.

They have also abandoned the BTG force structure and gone back to a more typical Soviet structure. Their forces have become more infantry heavy. But because of losses, they have gone from a deficit to an overabundance. Early in the war they had too few infantry to support their heavy equipment. Now they have a lot of infantry and little heavy equipment on the battlefield.

They did adapt in those two areas, but they haven't been enough and they never will be. The volume of artillery fire has dropped dramatically from its peak last spring and early summer. That could be due to supply chains getting more fragile thanks to the introduction of HIMARS, or it could be they have worn out a lot of their artillery, or it could be they have exhausted their Soviet stockpiles and really do have an ammunition shortage, or it could be all of these factors coming together.

Russia appears to be desperate for any kind of victory for political reasons. If they didn't have problems with their artillery, they would be using it at Bakhmut to flatten the town and take it. They are struggling because they don't seem to be able to generate the levels of artillery fire they were able to throw 8 months ago. They aren't holding back for some ninja genius reason as those still deluded by Russia's illusions would say.
 
Various news items coming through indicating that UK will send all its functioning AS90 155mm SPG along with the (now) 28 Challenger 2 MBT. Conflicting info re exactly how many this will be, but basically cleaning out the UK cupboard. Back when it was 14 Challengers the total package included all the accompanying stuff one would need, so there is no reason to think that the overall package has not been similarly increased now it is 28.


===========

For all those saying that this conflict means full-on MBT warfare is back in vogue, we should also remember that we are not witnessing either side employing full NATO doctrine. This is because neither side has a NATO level of airpower available, and in many ways NATO doctrine substitutes airpower for groundpower. I'm not saying that there are no lessons to be learnt re the continued relevance of the MBT, but just that we should be cautious. Also re the point that IFV + ATGM are equivalent to an MBT, again one must be careful. There are 50 rounds carried on a typical Western MBT, whereas as typical Western IFV with ATGM will at most carry half a dozen or so missiles (inc reloads). Furthermore there is a big cost difference between the gun ammo of the MBT and the ATGM. Ultimately it is a team effort, and that I think is the real takeaway.
 
Various news items coming through indicating that UK will send all its functioning AS90 155mm SPG along with the (now) 28 Challenger 2 MBT. Conflicting info re exactly how many this will be, but basically cleaning out the UK cupboard. Back when it was 14 Challengers the total package included all the accompanying stuff one would need, so there is no reason to think that the overall package has not been similarly increased now it is 28.


===========

For all those saying that this conflict means full-on MBT warfare is back in vogue, we should also remember that we are not witnessing either side employing full NATO doctrine. This is because neither side has a NATO level of airpower available, and in many ways NATO doctrine substitutes airpower for groundpower. I'm not saying that there are no lessons to be learnt re the continued relevance of the MBT, but just that we should be cautious. Also re the point that IFV + ATGM are equivalent to an MBT, again one must be careful. There are 50 rounds carried on a typical Western MBT, whereas as typical Western IFV with ATGM will at most carry half a dozen or so missiles (inc reloads). Furthermore there is a big cost difference between the gun ammo of the MBT and the ATGM. Ultimately it is a team effort, and that I think is the real takeaway.

It's true that there are fewer ATGM missiles per IFV, but there are usually a lot more IFVs on the battlefield than MBTs. Additionally the M242 auto cannon on the Bradley is effective against many types of fortifications and all but MBT armor. Russian APCs are very lightly armored and are very vulnerable to any kind of cannon fire.

This page details the types of ammunition available for the Bushmaster
M242 25mm Automatic Gun

The M919 is most effective armor piercing round, but it uses spent uranium which is an environmental mess to use. I don't know what it's like now, but I read 15 years after the first Gulf War the miscarriage and birth defect rate in the part of Iraq where the bulk of the spent uranium ammunition was used was still quite high.

I do agree that the tank is not dead. But tank on tank battles have been rare in this war. In WW II carrier aircraft made engagements of battleships rare. There were only two battleship on battleship engagements during the war and only one involved a modern battleship. But the battleship did serve an important role as a floating artillery battery and AA battery to protect the carriers.

In the early going in WW II pure fighters were normal, but as the war went on, fighters that could also serve as fighter bombers became a necessity. When one side gained air superiority, there was less need to pure fighters and fighters which could also attack surface targets were needed. Today all fighters can serve in the ground attack role too and that's most of their mission.

When enemy tanks are few in number, the field commanders either need to decide to park the tanks and continue fighting with other vehicles or to use the tanks for attacking non armored targets. Because the Abrams is so bloody expensive to field and the US has a lot of other options, the Abrams were mostly idled early on in recent conflicts. But Ukraine doesn't have the deep bench of weapons the US has. They will employ the tanks they have to attack fortifications and secure objectives. But they don't need state of the art tanks for that. A good gun, well trained crew, and reasonably good armor will do the job. Rounding up all the Leopard Is in the world, refurbing them, then sending them to Ukraine would be a big benefit to them.

After the war is over, then it's time for Ukraine to standardize on one modern tank, learn it inside out, and set up a good support network for it. It will be part of making Ukraine the prickly hedgehog nobody will ever want to mess with again.

Most tank casualties have been due to ATGMs or drones. The Switchblade 300 is designed to be an anti vehicle weapon and can take out a tank with a top attack. We haven't heard much confirmation of their use, but I suspect at least some of the tank kills by kamikaze drone videos we've seen have been Switchblades. Those will probably be employed on the offense to clear out armored vehicles during an advance. The Ukrainians can have some airborne and ready to dive on a target before the lead elements of the Ukrainian troops arrive.

Being a Russian tank is a dangerous thing in this war. There are lots of things that can kill it and because their combined arms tactics are terrible and not likely to get much better, the tanks don't get the kind of flank support they need, so they get cut to pieces by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians have lost tanks and will certainly lose more before this is done, but they are much better at combined arms tactics and give the tanks the support they need. A Russian AT team has a much riskier job than on the Ukrainian side.
 

This is an interesting article about a Czech company that makes inflatable decoy HIMARS (with heat signatures - I hadn't heard about that before, kinda cool). They wouldn't confirm that they're used in Ukraine, but with business booming...

I know people mocked Russia early in the war for inflatable decoys, but it sure makes a lot of economic sense if deployed strategically.
 

This is an interesting article about a Czech company that makes inflatable decoy HIMARS (with heat signatures - I hadn't heard about that before, kinda cool). They wouldn't confirm that they're used in Ukraine, but with business booming...

I know people mocked Russia early in the war for inflatable decoys, but it sure makes a lot of economic sense if deployed strategically.

The Russians are pouring troops into the south expecting a Ukrainian offensive to launch there. Maybe the Ukrainians are setting up an inflatable force in the south to lure the Russians?
 
More calm words from historian Timothy Snyder. I believe this was recorded a few weeks after the war started but it only showed up on YT a couple of weeks ago. It starts slowly because of an awkward question but soon Timothy finds his rhythm.


On how horrific Putin's claim of denazification truly was:
[Ukraine] is the only country that's gonna elect a Jewish president with 73% of the vote. That's not gonna happen again. None of you is ever gonna see that in a country besides Israel [...] You are never going to see another country elect a Jewish president with 73% of the vote.
A few more tidbits:
If you don't defend the notion of Europe as a peace project, if you don't defend the legacy of learning from the Second World War by also learning from this war then you have lost the competition for what the Second World War actually means. You'll have lost it to someone who says "the Second World War is an argument for more war".
Truth is what you're willing to take a risk for.
 
When I was in college I took a world cinema class as an elective. I can't remember for sure which movie it was, but it was some sort of post modern movie. Possibly Blow Up. The protagonist got into this big tussle with a bunch of people for something like a t-shirt or something else trivial. He won the tussle but then as he walked away he realized he just fought tooth and nail for something that was pretty much useless.

That's where Russia is with Bahkmut except thousands of people are getting killed for the useless town.

Bakhmut has become a Burmese monkey trap and Ukraine just keeps stringing Russia along to bleed them out. Russia is so short on supply people are using shovels as weapons. They should be holding back and building up their supplies, even if they plan only for defense. But the politicians who have no clue what they are doing are driving the bus. Bakhmut needs to be taken for political reasons that have no value beyond some ego driven goal.

Some mobilized people from Kalingrad, Murmansk, and Arkhangelsk (Arkangel) posted a videos saying they have been issued qith weapons from the 40s

Drug use among the Russians at the front appears to be rampant
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

My partner saw a story that the Russians were rushing troops to the Zapronezhia area because they believe a Ukrainain attack there is imminent. I wonder if northern Donbas is where the attack is actually going to start?
My god, that is so sad. Probably all academics.
It sounds like a cheap videogame with the Russians acting with stone age tactics while the other side equipped with proper adequate 21 century tactics. Is it really THAT bad?
Hopefully this finally sparks the impetus of overthrow.
 
So far it seems a relatively low number of casualties

 
Looks like Bakhmut has been a meat-grinder for both sides:

 
1678405201200.png
 
Having watched some recent drone videos, the drones seems so much more effective than tanks in modern warfare.

Compare this:

To these:

Which one costs less? Which one is less risky? Which one is more effective? Which one requires less logistics?

I have a feeling that it will mainly be drone vs drone in the future. Small cheap drones where the goal is that they cost less to manufacture/deploy than the cost of the damage they do. Just tons of cheap drones flying and exploding from both sides...
 
Looks like Bakhmut has been a meat-grinder for both sides:


The Ukrainian army is a mixed force with a cadre of western trained troops on down to the territorial defense troops who are getting whatever is available. The UK training facility has the capacity to train a few tens of thousands of troops a year. The US maintains a facility in Germany for vehicle combat and maintenance training that has trained about 3000 troops so far.

Other NATO countries are training Ukrainians too, but the facilities most countries have are small. For example the Baltic Republics are doing all they can to help and would like to train as many Ukrainian troops as possible, but they don't have large training facilities because their own armies are small.

Over the last year the Ukrainian army has surged from around 200,000 strong to over 1 million. By the time the Ukrainians are ready to launch an offensive maybe 50,000 troops will be trained by western militaries, including those trained before the war began (NATO has been training Ukrainians since 2014). If the flow of western equipment keeps up, maybe all of that force will have good quality western weapons, but there won't be much to spare. By building on what NATO has trained them, Ukraine has probably trained another cadre of troops in the same doctrine, but they haven't benefited from first rate NATO training facilities. These natively trained units will be second in line for western equipment as it becomes available.

With an army of 1 million and only so much western gear available, the Ukrainian units with less training need to make due with whatever is available. Some of the western light weapons and protective equipment is available in large enough numbers to supply some of these units, but vehicles are in short supply as are heavy weapons and many modern weapons. The soviet stockpiles of ammunition for many weapons dried up last summer. Eastern Europe is able to make some ammunition of these calibers, but they can't keep up with demand.

One speculation was that Russia was trying to get Ukraine to commit their well trained offensive forces to Bakhmut to damage them too badly to conduct an offensive. Ukraine isn't playing that game. They are holding back their better trained units to make them count when the offensive begins. And they have been committing their more ragtag units to the defense in places like Bakhmut.

The Ukrainian goal in Bakhmut has always been to hurt Russia as badly as possible. That doesn't require well trained and equipped units, so unfortunately a lot of poorly trained schmucks have been thrown into the cauldron.

I note in the article Borys said his units started with 500 in December and has been whittled down to 150. That's 3-4 months to take that level of casualties, which is heavy, but that was seen in western armies in WW II. Stories from the Russian side have described casualty levels like that, or worse, happening in a period of a couple of weeks. I have seen many translated communications from Russians calling home who say their unit had 500 or 1000 men and was down to 50 or less in a matter of weeks of combat.

It's estimated the ratio of losses in Bakhmut is 1:7 in the Ukrainian's favor. The Ukrainians are still losing people with that ratio, it's just that the Russians are losing a lot more. If the Russians have lost 28,000 at Bakhmut, the Ukrainians have still lost 4,000.
 
Having watched some recent drone videos, the drones seems so much more effective than tanks in modern warfare.

Compare this:

To these:

Which one costs less? Which one is less risky? Which one is more effective? Which one requires less logistics?

I have a feeling that it will mainly be drone vs drone in the future. Small cheap drones where the goal is that they cost less to manufacture/deploy than the cost of the damage they do. Just tons of cheap drones flying and exploding from both sides...

I don't think the tank is dead yet. Tanks running with poor combined arms doctrine are very vulnerable to drones. That is the lesson to take from what's happening to the Russian vehicles.

Armies all over the world are looking at what's happening and are coming up with countermeasures right now.

30 years ago or more I remember watching a documentary on the three super weapons of WW I that many thought would make war impossible. They were the machine gun, the airplane, and the submarine. All proved difficult to counter initially, but while all are still parts of military forces today, none of them have ended warfare. War is a more brutal thing now than it was 180 years ago, but the world has adapted to all these weapons.

Near the end of WW II the kamikaze threat made the Allied navies adapt to more lethal close in defenses for their ships. After the war anti-shipping missiles became an existential threat and navies came up with more point defenses to counter them. Among the defense employed now are things to try and jam the missile so it gets confused and misses as well as automated high rate of fire guns with targeting capabilities way beyond what a human can manage, and counter missiles.

We will probably be seeing smaller versions of these ship defense weapons deployed on vehicles in the near future. Remotely powered turrets are not uncommon now. The US Stryker has a remote controlled .50 caliber gun mounted on top. Add some sophistication to that system to detect and target drones and a kamikaze drone will have to fly into a hail of lead to hit its target.

Other options would be an automated weapon like a shotgun for close defense or electronic jamming tech. A smaller caliber automated weapon would be able to spray an area with a lot more rounds and would likely take out a drone before it could hit.

The tech is not all in place yet, but it is in development. We will be seeing a lot of new anti-drone tech coming out in the next few years. It won't eliminate drones as a threat, but like all the other wonder weapons of the past, it will be one that can be dealt with.

The west and China have the advantage in developing these technologies. They have the electronics industries to work out home grown solutions to this problem. It will likely leave Russia in a backwater because they are dependent on foreign electronics and they will have trouble getting the electronics they need. It will likely hurt their military export business even more than their poor performance in this war has done.