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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Having watched some recent drone videos, the drones seems so much more effective than tanks in modern warfare.

Compare this:

To these:

Which one costs less? Which one is less risky? Which one is more effective? Which one requires less logistics?

I have a feeling that it will mainly be drone vs drone in the future. Small cheap drones where the goal is that they cost less to manufacture/deploy than the cost of the damage they do. Just tons of cheap drones flying and exploding from both sides...

Bear in mind the functionality of those tanks, compared to modern tanks, is pretty limited.

Have you ever seen a M1A2 tank going at 50+ MPH tracking a moving target, and nailing it with rounds spot on center? It's impressive, and a drone would be hard pressed to hit it.


No, the Russians are frankly poorly trained, and poorly equipped. They just have massive numbers, and it's going to take a good while for the Ukrainians to grind through all that metal being thrown at them.
 
Other options would be an automated weapon like a shotgun for close defense or electronic jamming tech. A smaller caliber automated weapon would be able to spray an area with a lot more rounds and would likely take out a drone before it could hit.
The question remains, does it cost more to deploy this than the cost to build the drones+explosive? And can it deal with a swarm of drones? Drones that drop from a high altitude? How about just dropping white phosphorus munitions?

At some point stationary expensive equipment will have to be kept far away from the battle front. Anything within drone distance will be an easy target.

Jamming tech is useful when the drone is manually controlled. If the drone has a camera, map, gps, imu etc, it will be difficult jamming all of these at the same time for a enough to get its dead reckoning totally of course...

Have you ever seen a M1A2 tank going at 50+ MPH tracking a moving target, and nailing it with rounds spot on center? It's impressive, and a drone would be hard pressed to hit it.
Drone can easily go faster than that and can just detonate on impact.
 
The question remains, does it cost more to deploy this than the cost to build the drones+explosive? And can it deal with a swarm of drones? Drones that drop from a high altitude? How about just dropping white phosphorus munitions?

At some point stationary expensive equipment will have to be kept far away from the battle front. Anything within drone distance will be an easy target.

Jamming tech is useful when the drone is manually controlled. If the drone has a camera, map, gps, imu etc, it will be difficult jamming all of these at the same time for a enough to get its dead reckoning totally of course...


Drone can easily go faster than that and can just detonate on impact.

Hellfire missile aside (and it take a large drone to carry one of those - not a quad copter), there is nothing I know of that a drone can carry that can penetrate the armor of a M1A2 tank.

Tanks are not dead. And it's exactly why Ukraine has been begging for them.
 
The question remains, does it cost more to deploy this than the cost to build the drones+explosive? And can it deal with a swarm of drones? Drones that drop from a high altitude? How about just dropping white phosphorus munitions?

At some point stationary expensive equipment will have to be kept far away from the battle front. Anything within drone distance will be an easy target.

Jamming tech is useful when the drone is manually controlled. If the drone has a camera, map, gps, imu etc, it will be difficult jamming all of these at the same time for a enough to get its dead reckoning totally of course...

There are a number of EMP weapons now that can fry a non-hardened drone. Some have been given to Ukraine by NATO countries.

White phosphorus is not the wonder weapon that the media makes it out to be. The US started using it in WW II as a type of smoke grenade/artillery round. If the burning phosphorous hits skin it does create nasty burns, but it would do little harm to a buttoned up armored vehicle.

Some of the counter measures probably will be expensive. The US gold plates everything military.

Point defenses to take out drones will have to be co-located with all stationary facilities. The world's military manufacturers will be making a lot of anti-drone weapons. It will make fighting more expensive than it is now, but that's been a trendline in war for over 100 years. In 1914 deploying large fleets of aircraft was considered prohibitively expensive, but only thirty years later the allies were putting 1000 bombers with equivalent numbers of fighters protecting them over Germany and the Germans were throwing hundreds of fighters at the raids.

Swarms of drones will be one technique that will be tried to over come defenses, but sending out a swarm of drones also depleted your own supply of drones. And sending a swarm of drones to one target leaves other targets uncovered. The US is attacking with 300 Abrams and the defender has 1000 drones. Sending out the drones in swarms of 100 targeting one target can potentially disable 10 Abrams, then the defenders still have 290 to deal with.

The Iranians have a swarm tactic to deal with US carriers. They have thousands of small craft capable of launching one anti-ship missile each. The plan is to send out a swarm of these boats to overwhelm the defense of the carrier task force. In that case, it may work because carriers are a limited resource. The US only has 11 commissioned carriers with three under construction and one of the active carriers will be decommissioned in 2025.

Tanks are much more problematical to target with swarms because they are much more numerous. A defender would need a staggeringly large fleet of drones to counter a large armored force and there are only a few armies in the world which will be able to do that. The US Army being one of them. Unless the US devolves into another civil war, it's unlikely the US Army is going to need to take out fleets of Abrams with drones.


Hellfire missile aside (and it take a large drone to carry one of those - not a quad copter), there is nothing I know of that a drone can carry that can penetrate the armor of a M1A2 tank.

Tanks are not dead. And it's exactly why Ukraine has been begging for them.

All tanks have thinner armor on top of the turret and the engine deck has no armor at all because the heat from the engine has to vent somewhere. A drone hit on the engine deck probably could disable the engine, which probably wouldn't destroy an Abrams, but would put it out of action.
 
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Bear in mind the functionality of those tanks, compared to modern tanks, is pretty limited.

Have you ever seen a M1A2 tank going at 50+ MPH tracking a moving target, and nailing it with rounds spot on center? It's impressive, and a drone would be hard pressed to hit it.


No, the Russians are frankly poorly trained, and poorly equipped. They just have massive numbers, and it's going to take a good while for the Ukrainians to grind through all that metal being thrown at them.
Sure about this? Can it resist a top hit from a switchblade?

Reddit seems to disagree:
 
All tanks have thinner armor on top of the turret and the engine deck has no armor at all because the heat from the engine has to vent somewhere. A drone hit on the engine deck probably could disable the engine, which probably wouldn't destroy an Abrams, but would put it out of action.

Yes . . . and no.

Technically, you are correct that the top armor is thinner and vulnerable (but not to the air grenades being dropped from quad copters).

Unlike what we see the Russians doing, however, NATO and US tank doctrine would have the M1A2 in a grouping of 14 tanks with proper infantry for defense against smaller arms. NATO doctrine would also be EXTRMELEY air dominant. Drone presence would be greatly reduced, mitigating that threat considerably.
 
Sure about this? Can it resist a top hit from a switchblade?

Reddit seems to disagree:

All the videos you posted were quad copter drone dropping essentially grenades. You are moving the goal posts when you bring in NLAW and switchblades. Switchblades are essentially loitering missiles with considerably larger warheads.

Again, see my post right above this. Nothing is invulnerable. The M1A2 is designed to be used with infantry to protect it against smaller munitions, and with air dominance.


We know how well the M1A1 did against T-72 tanks in Gulf War 1. It was a turkey shoot, and it was exactly per NATO doctrine (vast air superiority + infantry units mixed with the M1A1s).

Are drones impressive in this war? Absolutely. But they are essentially unchallenged because of how crappy the Russians are deployed.
 
All the videos you posted were quad copter drone dropping essentially grenades. You are moving the goal posts when you bring in NLAW and switchblades. Switchblades are essentially loitering missiles with considerably larger warheads.
I meant using quadrocopters to drop grenades instead of using tanks against infantry.

If the enemy has tanks, then use switchblade/quadrocopters against them.

A switchblade costs ~$6k, M1A2 ~$6M. So a lot of switchblades can be used to saturate the tank's anti missile defence.

The strategy I see in the near future is using cheap solar infinite range drones to gather intel. Then have autonomous vehicles placing switchblades/quadrocopters on the ground near the front line. When enemy activity is detected in the area, send out scout drones, when they see any enemy targets send the grenade dropping quadrocopter/switchblades drones to take out the target.
 
I meant using quadrocopters to drop grenades instead of using tanks against infantry.

If the enemy has tanks, then use switchblade/quadrocopters against them.

A switchblade costs ~$6k, M1A2 ~$6M. So a lot of switchblades can be used to saturate the tank's anti missile defence.

The strategy I see in the near future is using cheap solar infinite range drones to gather intel. Then have autonomous vehicles placing switchblades/quadrocopters on the ground near the front line. When enemy activity is detected in the area, send out scout drones, when they see any enemy targets send the grenade dropping quadrocopter/switchblades drones to take out the target.

We'll politely agree to disagree then. You need tanks in order to breach fortifications. You won't accomplish that with infantry + drones.
 
...] Swarms of drones will be one technique that will be tried to over come defenses, but sending out a swarm of drones also depleted your own supply of drones. [...
I wonder how far away we are from swarms of insect sized explosive kamikaze micro drones to attack infantry.
In case anyone missed it... Fast forward to 7:09 for the ~30 second factual commentary. And that short film was published more than 3 years ago...

The Professor Stuart Russel doing that commentary seems pretty naive though... How can anyone possibly expect the dictators in Russia, China, Iran, North Korea et al. to not try and develop this tech as fast as they possibly can?...

 
It's estimated the ratio of losses in Bakhmut is 1:7 in the Ukrainian's favor. The Ukrainians are still losing people with that ratio, it's just that the Russians are losing a lot more. If the Russians have lost 28,000 at Bakhmut, the Ukrainians have still lost 4,000.

There is another aspect to these numbers: The UKR losses are people they do not want to lose, while a lot of the RUS losses are people they do want to lose.
 
Yes . . . and no.

Technically, you are correct that the top armor is thinner and vulnerable (but not to the air grenades being dropped from quad copters).

Unlike what we see the Russians doing, however, NATO and US tank doctrine would have the M1A2 in a grouping of 14 tanks with proper infantry for defense against smaller arms. NATO doctrine would also be EXTRMELEY air dominant. Drone presence would be greatly reduced, mitigating that threat considerably.

I thought the discussion was about purpose built kamikaze drones rather than modified commercial drones with grenades.

In my earlier response to @heltok I did talk about how NATO doctrine differs from Russian doctrine, or lack thereof. NATO doesn't deploy tanks without complete support.

I meant using quadrocopters to drop grenades instead of using tanks against infantry.

If the enemy has tanks, then use switchblade/quadrocopters against them.

A switchblade costs ~$6k, M1A2 ~$6M. So a lot of switchblades can be used to saturate the tank's anti missile defence.

The strategy I see in the near future is using cheap solar infinite range drones to gather intel. Then have autonomous vehicles placing switchblades/quadrocopters on the ground near the front line. When enemy activity is detected in the area, send out scout drones, when they see any enemy targets send the grenade dropping quadrocopter/switchblades drones to take out the target.

I doubt infinite range solar drones are going to be possible. Especially for military purposes.

We'll politely agree to disagree then. You need tanks in order to breach fortifications. You won't accomplish that with infantry + drones.

Tanks of some other kind of mechanized, armored assault gun. Basically the same thing for purposes of this conversation.
 
They are here already:


Add some extra sensors and communication, downsize them, cut the cost a bit... Place powerbanks along the ground for recharge once a week and cleaning far away from the front...

With aircraft weight is critical. Added weight has to be traded with lift. Lift can be generated with more wing area or moving faster. Moving faster consumes energy and there is more drag to overcome. With an aircraft such as this, larger wing area is the solution. Both for enough area for the solar cells and you can't just go fast, so you need a lot of wing. The larger the wing area, the harder it's going to be to hide.
 
We'll politely agree to disagree then. You need tanks in order to breach fortifications. You won't accomplish that with infantry + drones.

The other relevant way to think about a modern Western MBT is that it is a 1MW+ powerpack with all-terrain capability, excellent communications node, and armoured survivability so that it can be as safe as anywhere is near the front lines. Quite a good platform to bolt an 'extra' weapons system onto, alongside its (typical) main gun and 2-3 machine guns. Quite a good platform to bolt a 20kW or so laser system on with all the relevant automation to take on the cheap quadcopter short-range drones.

I don't think the MBT is at all dead yet. These things are a team effort.