@wdolson not sure if you saw this but I hope it will make you smile.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
@wdolson not sure if you saw this but I hope it will make you smile.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That attack in Mariupol that @JRP3 mentioned might have been Ukraine targeting underground bunkers with stormshadow, helicopters had flow from russia to mariupol shortly before that. Russian brass was touring Southern Ukraine. Hmmm...things that make you think they were general shopping.
BitJam
Active Member
Will Russian glide bombs delay or hamper the counter-offensive?
Prof. Michael Clarke recently said that glide bombs were playing havoc with Ukrainian front line forces and Ukraine now has a dire need for fighter aircraft. Shortly after that the US and other allies got on board with supplying fighter jets and pilot training to Ukraine. Kudos to Prof. Clarke for getting this right which makes the rest of what he said more believable to me.
@Ogre asked the key question: can Gepards shoot down glide bombs? I could not find a definitive answer to this. ISTM that if they can then Ukraine only needs Gepards near the things they want to protect; they don't need to protect the large number of square kilometers in range of a glide bomb plus its launch aircraft. Granted, there may be a gruesome choice between protecting civilians and protecting military assets.
The estimates I've seen say it will take 3 to 6 months to start building up the Ukrainian Air Force with the training and planes that have been recently promised. Maybe there are more optimistic projections. This makes me wonder if Ukraine will delay their counter-offensive until they get enough jets in the air to neutralize the glide bombs or if Ukraine can counter the glide bombs well enough now to go ahead with the counter-offensive before they build up their air power.
IIRC, Russia is launching about 20 glide bombs per day. Since they are cheap to make it seems possible that Russia could increase their production by a factor of 10. Or maybe the production rate is higher and they are stockpiling for the upcoming counter-offensive.
My hope is Ukraine can counter the glide bombs well enough with their current equipment so they don't need to delay the counter-offensive. Perhaps they were downplaying this capability to the West in order to make a stronger argument for getting fighter jets and training ASAP.
Prof. Michael Clarke recently said that glide bombs were playing havoc with Ukrainian front line forces and Ukraine now has a dire need for fighter aircraft. Shortly after that the US and other allies got on board with supplying fighter jets and pilot training to Ukraine. Kudos to Prof. Clarke for getting this right which makes the rest of what he said more believable to me.
@Ogre asked the key question: can Gepards shoot down glide bombs? I could not find a definitive answer to this. ISTM that if they can then Ukraine only needs Gepards near the things they want to protect; they don't need to protect the large number of square kilometers in range of a glide bomb plus its launch aircraft. Granted, there may be a gruesome choice between protecting civilians and protecting military assets.
The estimates I've seen say it will take 3 to 6 months to start building up the Ukrainian Air Force with the training and planes that have been recently promised. Maybe there are more optimistic projections. This makes me wonder if Ukraine will delay their counter-offensive until they get enough jets in the air to neutralize the glide bombs or if Ukraine can counter the glide bombs well enough now to go ahead with the counter-offensive before they build up their air power.
IIRC, Russia is launching about 20 glide bombs per day. Since they are cheap to make it seems possible that Russia could increase their production by a factor of 10. Or maybe the production rate is higher and they are stockpiling for the upcoming counter-offensive.
My hope is Ukraine can counter the glide bombs well enough with their current equipment so they don't need to delay the counter-offensive. Perhaps they were downplaying this capability to the West in order to make a stronger argument for getting fighter jets and training ASAP.
Ideally the Russians and the Wagnerites start a little internal fight and do it for us all.
I hadn't seen that picture. Keep firing a gun past it's pull date and that sort of thing happens.
The training of F-16 pilots and ground crew is going to take around 3-4 months. This is a thread on the difficulty maintaining the old F-16s in combat.
I strongly doubt Ukraine is going to wait on the offensive until the F-16s are in action. That would be too late in the year.
On the upside Russia is absolutely terrible at hitting moving targets. I do wish Ukraine had more SP artillery. The M777s are most vulnerable to the glide bombs because shoot and scoot is difficult with towed artillery. Once the offensive begins the Russians will have trouble hitting the Ukrainians who will be on the move most of the time.
Where the fighters will definitely be necessary is when the Ukrainians stop moving again. Hopefully that will be the border to Russia all around. If Russia doesn't devolve into civil war and have other things to worry about, they will probably try and keep attacking the border regions or Ukraine even though it would be pointless at that point. There fighters would be able to take out the bomb carriers before they can drop.
Making it useless and potentially run up more losses for Russia to try and continue to attack Ukraine when they don't hold any territory will make it more clear to the Russian people that the war is lost and continuing makes no sense.
Ukraine is doing multiple attacks on railways. It's either the Ukrainians doing a fake out or the offensive is about to start. Railways are fairly easy to repair. Taking out a rail line will put it out of operation for a few days at best. Taking out a lot of rail lines at once is something that an army preparing for a major offensive would do to paralyze the enemy in the critical first 48 hours of an offensive.
petit_bateau
Active Member
- Going back three or more decades these types of systems were tested using 4.5" shells as the target, and they worked. A 4.5" shell is a harder target than a bomb with a wing kit. My specific knowledge is of another similar system to the Gepard/Oerlikon one, but I see no reason why the Gepard/Oerlikon would not be equally effective. as the G/Oe is a very capable and comparable system. I do not think you will find any public domain evidence that is going to give you a better answer than that. The real issue is that the Gepards (and other similar things) are simply not available in large enough quantities to protect the large numbers of assets that are at risk. The Ukraine simply has to prioritise where these Gepards/etc are located, and sadly putting them 20km behind the front line in a muddy field next to some towed artillery is just not high up enough on the priority list. Playing goalkeeper on the real high value assets is the right place to put th eGepards at the moment. Clearly that prioritisation will change as the nature of the warfare shifts (hopefully) in the near future, but still it will be difficult for Ukraine to push more than a few of these things forwards.
- But fantastic news that F16 will be provided. That will tell the Russians that the West is in this for the long haul, and that the Russians cannot outlast Ukraine's aviation in an attrition game. Basically that means this war is now utterly unwinnable by Russia (though it could still be lost by Ukraine / the West if bad decisions were to be made). In turn that means that everyone in the ruling classes in Russia knows that the real issue now is what happens as Russia loses. That's a lot of
- Some useful links in my quick scan, some of which I think have been noted by others, but not I think all
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Most of the pilots killed by an apparent Ukrainian cross-border missile ambush against Russian military aircraft in the Bryansk region on 13 May have been identified from social media accounts by in...…
threadreaderapp.com
https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1659587711546580993?
My only criticism of all the links provided is that suggesting that the attack in marsipul was to hit a concentration staged for Bakhmut. In particular when it is known that the Russian MOD was conducting meetings yesterday and that site housed a Ukrainian built underground bunker. 150 soldiers just would not be high on the list IMO. Staff officers and a general, especially as things get closer (as @wdolson points out re railroad hits indicating we may be getting closer) would be worthy of using a cruise missile.
Further support for shaping having hit a critical point is the recent ISW where they say Russia committed reserves to maintain the flanks in Bahkmut.
www.understandingwar.org
My gosh...Russia puts 150k troops into the south, the reserves into Bahkmut. Nobody can move...what is a poor Ukrainian general to do.
Institute for the Study of War
A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukrainian counterattacks in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on May 19 that Russian
My gosh...Russia puts 150k troops into the south, the reserves into Bahkmut. Nobody can move...what is a poor Ukrainian general to do.
Relevant to our Tesla mission;
apple.news
Ukraine found an unlikely tool to resist Russia: Solar panels — The Washington Post
Ukrainians are putting solar panels on hospitals, schools, police stations and other critical buildings to fight blackouts.
apple.news
Opinion survey across 500 colleges records mood of fear and anxiety among Russian students. One-third of respondents want to leave country.
Glad my friend got out when he could.
Glad my friend got out when he could.
Sometimes I’m a bit too succinct when I post things and perhaps this was one of those cases.
Your last point is what I was referring to when I said the big problem is surface area.
As you suggest, there is simply too much ground and too many assets to protect. Particularly since Russia has no qualms about civilian targets. Likely that’s a part of why they target civilian infrastructure so often.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Now ground support is a another issue but I would not underestimate the Ukrainian people on that one either
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Relevant to our Tesla mission;
Ukraine found an unlikely tool to resist Russia: Solar panels — The Washington Post
Ukrainians are putting solar panels on hospitals, schools, police stations and other critical buildings to fight blackouts.
A distributed grid is more resilient . . . go figure.
Meanwhile back in the states, they want to force us off solar+batteries behind the meter. /rant off
BitJam
Active Member
This was my fault. I skipped over your main point when I cited your question and I was too lazy to even provide a link back to your original post. Sorry about that.
Ukrainians are doing such a good job at information warfare that nobody knows what they are doing. Russia is sending reinforcements away from the main front trying to reinforce Bakhmut, Ukrainians are taking advantage of that. Meanwhile Zelenskyy is telling people they don’t have enough resources to start the offensive, they are destroying so much infrastructure….
Russia’s brain drain has paralyzed their decision making. If Wagner does pull out I think everything falls apart.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Wagner claiming Bakhmut has been taken by them but Ukraine denies it.
www.politico.eu
Russia’s Wagner group claims control of Bakhmut, but Kyiv says fighting continues
Heavy fighting was continuing in the city, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said.
www.politico.eu
X Fan
Active Member
I gather it depends on the definition of what constitutes Bakhmut.Wagner claiming Bakhmut has been taken by them but Ukraine denies it.
Russia’s Wagner group claims control of Bakhmut, but Kyiv says fighting continues
Heavy fighting was continuing in the city, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said.
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