Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

- Going back three or more decades these types of systems were tested using 4.5" shells as the target, and they worked. A 4.5" shell is a harder target than a bomb with a wing kit. My specific knowledge is of another similar system to the Gepard/Oerlikon one, but I see no reason why the Gepard/Oerlikon would not be equally effective. as the G/Oe is a very capable and comparable system. I do not think you will find any public domain evidence that is going to give you a better answer than that. The real issue is that the Gepards (and other similar things) are simply not available in large enough quantities to protect the large numbers of assets that are at risk. The Ukraine simply has to prioritise where these Gepards/etc are located, and sadly putting them 20km behind the front line in a muddy field next to some towed artillery is just not high up enough on the priority list. Playing goalkeeper on the real high value assets is the right place to put th eGepards at the moment. Clearly that prioritisation will change as the nature of the warfare shifts (hopefully) in the near future, but still it will be difficult for Ukraine to push more than a few of these things forwards.

- But fantastic news that F16 will be provided. That will tell the Russians that the West is in this for the long haul, and that the Russians cannot outlast Ukraine's aviation in an attrition game. Basically that means this war is now utterly unwinnable by Russia (though it could still be lost by Ukraine / the West if bad decisions were to be made). In turn that means that everyone in the ruling classes in Russia knows that the real issue now is what happens as Russia loses. That's a lot of rats oilgarchs and etc figuring out how best to fight for their own internal Russian corners in the coming internal Russian game.

It seems gunnery always comes back. By Vietnam US fighters were missile only and it was found that when the Vietnamese got in close, guns were necessary so the Phantoms started getting Vulcan 20mm cannons. Fighters designed since have had a cannon.

Gun air defense went out of fashion with missiles dominating the field, but a few systems were built like the Gepard. Now we have a clear use where gun AD makes a lot of sense, both for taking out drones and trying to take down glide bombs, but there just are not that many gun AD systems in existence to give to Ukraine.

That Trent Telenko thread on the Russians eating their seed corn was a great explanation on how Russia is degrading the quality of their troops for at least a generation, possibly permanently. Here is the Threadreader version
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

Further support for shaping having hit a critical point is the recent ISW where they say Russia committed reserves to maintain the flanks in Bahkmut.

Institute for the Study of War

A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukrainian counterattacks in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on May 19 that Russian

www.understandingwar.org

My gosh...Russia puts 150k troops into the south, the reserves into Bahkmut. Nobody can move...what is a poor Ukrainian general to do.

The Russians are going all in at Bakhmut. One thing I noticed, Bakhmut is the only settlement of any size in the Donesk oblast that has not been in Russian control. There may be some political reason to claim Donesk as Russian if they can take the last city in Donesk. That's the only reason I have been able to come up with why the Russians would go to these lengths to capture a town that has little strategic significance.

They have also done something so boneheaded I can't think of another example of an army doing it. They are continuing to attack in the center while their flanks collapse. That is insanely stupid.

They have reinforced the flanks some, but it's still pretty dumb.

Opinion survey across 500 colleges records mood of fear and anxiety among Russian students. One-third of respondents want to leave country.

Glad my friend got out when he could.

What's telling about that is opinion surveys in Russia have a huge incentive to lie and tell the poll taker what you think they want to hear. Saying otherwise risks arrest.

Ukrainians are doing such a good job at information warfare that nobody knows what they are doing. Russia is sending reinforcements away from the main front trying to reinforce Bakhmut, Ukrainians are taking advantage of that. Meanwhile Zelenskyy is telling people they don’t have enough resources to start the offensive, they are destroying so much infrastructure….

Russia’s brain drain has paralyzed their decision making. If Wagner does pull out I think everything falls apart.

Throwing their reserves into Bakhmut is very dumb. They will have nothing to stop the Ukrainians when the real offensive starts.

In a dictatorship the dictator's word has to be obeyed, even when it is lunacy. I think it was Churchill who said "democracy is the worst form of government,,, until you consider the alternatives." A brilliant leader with a lot of power in the right place at the right time can do tremendous good, but that same level of control in the hands of someone who doesn't know what they are doing (or is making bad decisions out of panic) can do more harm than the brilliant leader could do good.

 

[iPlug]

No official explanation remains for why Russia ever tried so incessantly to take Bakhmut.

But seeing how things have played out, one can easily imagine a year ago Putin and his senior minions: Prigozin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov having a braindead mafia club meet. There, Prigozin makes the claim to his own greatness and brags his all-powerful Wagner terrorists can take Bakhmut in just a few weeks. Fellow idiots Shoigu and Gerasimov laugh, but Putin accepts the challenge and gives Prigozin the green light, allowing some friendly competition. After the slight delay of a year, Prigozin instead achieves a Pyrrhic victory...

​

 

[BitJam]

Wagner claiming Bakhmut has been taken by them but Ukraine denies it.

Russia’s Wagner group claims control of Bakhmut, but Kyiv says fighting continues

Heavy fighting was continuing in the city, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said.

www.politico.eu

Apparently it's very easy for Russia to capture Bakhmut. According to them they've already done it a number of times since April 3rd. They seem to be setting themselves up for a joke.

In post-Soviet Russia, Bakhmut captures you.​

 

[SmokyPeat]

.

In a dictatorship the dictator's word has to be obeyed, even when it is lunacy. I think it was Churchill who said "democracy is the worst form of government,,, until you consider the alternatives." A brilliant leader with a lot of power in the right place at the right time can do tremendous good, but that same level of control in the hands of someone who doesn't know what they are doing (or is making bad decisions out of panic) can do more harm than the brilliant leader could do good.

As the owner of a one year old beagle named Winston, I feel the need to clarify what Churchill said. Here's the quote:

Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all other forms of that have been tried from time to time; but there is the broad feeling in our country that the people should rule, continuously rule, and that public opinion, expressed by all constitutional means, should shape, guide, and control the actions of Ministers who are their servants and not their masters.

 

[UncaNed]

Ukrainians are doing such a good job at information warfare that nobody knows what they are doing. Russia is sending reinforcements away from the main front trying to reinforce Bakhmut, Ukrainians are taking advantage of that. Meanwhile Zelenskyy is telling people they don’t have enough resources to start the offensive, they are destroying so much infrastructure….

Russia’s brain drain has paralyzed their decision making. If Wagner does pull out I think everything falls apart.

I bet more than a few higher-ups in Russia and elsewhere DO know exactly what they're doing, and so are purposely pushing things in Ukraine's favor, weather it be a "lit cigarette" at a Russian ammo depot, slipping unnoticeably bogus armament parts and drones into the illegal supply pipeline to Russia, or initiating very bad Russian troop deployments and misinformation.

I think Russia will fall very suddenly in 2023.

 

[Artful Dodger]

20 May: HIMARS Strike DESTROYS RUSSIAN SECRET UNDERGROUND BASE | War in Ukraine Explained (1 hr ago)

from Youtube Channel: Reporting from Ukraine | videos

Russians lose a bunker in Mariopol and a trainload of T-90s to HIMARS strikes (payback's a b*tch).

Budmo!

 

[petit_bateau]

Wagner claiming Bakhmut has been taken by them but Ukraine denies it.

Russia’s Wagner group claims control of Bakhmut, but Kyiv says fighting continues

Heavy fighting was continuing in the city, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said.

www.politico.eu

It seems to have been confirmed by Zelensky in Japan, though what in practice that means for the localised front line is unclear.

 

[bhzmark]

Bakhmut Is Largely Under Russian Control, Says Ukrainian General

The capture of the city would mark the only significant success of a monthslong Russian offensive that has severely depleted its military.

www.wsj.com

Updated May 21, 2023 05:12 a.m. EDT

selections:

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russian forces have taken control of Bakhmut, even as Kyiv denied the claims and said it still holds part of the eastern Ukrainian city that has been obliterated by months of relentless fighting.

The dueling claims come as Russia consolidates control over most of Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces have been clinging to a shrinking patch on the western edge of the city for several weeks while launching counterattacks against Russian forces around the city.

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said on Saturday that its forces had been pushed back to a small area at the entrance to the city where a residential district and some industrial facilities are located.

Putin congratulated the Wag-ner group and the Russian Armed Forces for what he said was the “liberation” of the city, which the Russian government and media call by its Soviet name Artemovsk.

“It’s a pity, a tragedy, but for today Bakhmut is only in our hearts,” he said, adding that the city had been razed after months of fighting. “You have to understand that there is nothing. They destroyed every-thing, there are no buildings.” Zelensky praised the Ukrainian soldiers who have spent months defending the city in the face of Russia’s onslaught and said a great many Russian troops had been killed in the battle. A spokesman for Zelensky later said the comments were a denial of Russian claims to have captured Bakhmut.

 

[petit_bateau]

45 x F16 from Danish and Dutch stocks. To enable this Denmark has cancelled the sale of 18 F-16's to Draken. The Portugese have joined the training team alongside UK/France/Dutch/Denmark. USA says also yes to training including F16 "and other advanced aircraft".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1659913756124618754

 

[petit_bateau]

Not really clear what is the situation in Bhakmut. Now Guardian is reporting this from Z:
=============
11.44 BST

Zelenskiy says Bakhmut 'is not occupied' and Ukraine's troops remain in city​

Answering questions from journalists, Zelenskiy asserted that Bakhmut had not been captured by Russia and that Ukrainian troops remain in the city, but that he could not give clear information.

He said:

We are fighting thanks to the courage of our people, our warriors.
I clearly understand what has taken place in Bakhmut.
I cannot share with you the tactical views of our military.
Bakhmut is not occupied by Russia Federation as of today. There are no two or three interpretations of those words.

also see

Ukraine war: Kyiv denies Wagner claim to have captured Bakhmut

Kyiv says situation is ‘critical’ and ‘heavy fighting’ is ongoing while Russia says capture of ruined city ‘has been completed’

www.theguardian.com

and this is also informative

Invasion Day 451 – Bakhmut City

The summary of the 451st day in Bakhmut, as of 22:00 – 20th May 2023 (Kyiv time). Due to the changes in the city of Bakhmut, we’re releasing an extra summary solely focused on the Bakhmut.

militaryland.net

 

[SwTslaGrl]

"German police say probing suspected poisoning of Russian exiles"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660202902995054592

 

[Artful Dodger]

45 x F16 from Danish and Dutch stocks

Harpoon takes the Red out.

F-16.net - The ultimate F-16, F-35 and F-22 reference

www.f-16.net

"USAF F-16C block 40 #87353 carrying an AGM-84 'Harpoon' all-weather anti-ship missile for trial purposes on May 1st, 1992."​

 

[Artful Dodger]

Klishchiivka, Ukraine 2023: Best Places to Visit - TripAdvisor www.tripadvisor.com › Europe › Ukraine › Donetsk Oblast

Klishchiivka, Ukraine 2023: Best Places to Visit - Tripadvisor

Klishchiivka Tourism: Tripadvisor has reviews of Klishchiivka Hotels, Attractions, and Restaurants making it your best Klishchiivka resource.

www.tripadvisor.com

 

[madodel]

A top Ukrainian commander fighting around Bakhmut says military experts who portray Russian soldiers as only 'stupid and miserable' are wrong

In a video posted on Telegram, Andriy Biletsky, a commander with Ukraine's 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, said recent victories had not come at "an easy price."

The enemy is not as stupid and miserable as some experts show him to be," said Biletsky.
He added that "The enemy is stubborn and cruel. But we are moving forward. We gnaw out every meter of Ukrainian land. Slava Ukraini!"

 

[madodel]

Klishchiivka, Ukraine 2023: Best Places to Visit - TripAdvisor www.tripadvisor.com › Europe › Ukraine › Donetsk Oblast

Klishchiivka, Ukraine 2023: Best Places to Visit - Tripadvisor

Klishchiivka Tourism: Tripadvisor has reviews of Klishchiivka Hotels, Attractions, and Restaurants making it your best Klishchiivka resource.

www.tripadvisor.com

View attachment 939728

Looks like a great place to visit in an F16.

 

[wdolson]

As the owner of a one year old beagle named Winston, I feel the need to clarify what Churchill said. Here's the quote:

Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all other forms of that have been tried from time to time; but there is the broad feeling in our country that the people should rule, continuously rule, and that public opinion, expressed by all constitutional means, should shape, guide, and control the actions of Ministers who are their servants and not their masters.

Correction noted.

Does your beagle quote Churchill like his parrot supposedly did?
Having a chat with Churchill's parrot and one of Reigate's oldest residents

Though the ownership of the parrot is in some dispute.

I bet more than a few higher-ups in Russia and elsewhere DO know exactly what they're doing, and so are purposely pushing things in Ukraine's favor, weather it be a "lit cigarette" at a Russian ammo depot, slipping unnoticeably bogus armament parts and drones into the illegal supply pipeline to Russia, or initiating very bad Russian troop deployments and misinformation.

I think Russia will fall very suddenly in 2023.

There appear to be some high up Russians who have been feeding information to the Ukrainians and other countries. Russia's attempts to russify Ukraine the last 500 years has consequences. A lot of Russians have relatives in Ukraine and are more sympathetic to the Ukrainians than the Russians. These people won't dare speak out publicly, but they are doing what they can to sabotage the war effort.

A top Ukrainian commander fighting around Bakhmut says military experts who portray Russian soldiers as only 'stupid and miserable' are wrong

The 3rd Ukrainian Brigade has mostly been fighting the Russian 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade the last month. Instead of spreading the mobiks out among experienced units with the hope they get some on the job training, they instead concentrated the veterans into a few units and gave them the best equipment that was left. Then Russia threw those units into Bakhmut about a month ago.

It appears the 72nd is one of the units that got the veterans and better equipment. Reports are that their losses have been heavy as the Ukrainians have clawed back territory. Googling that unit shows stories of heavy losses. (Not to be confused with the Ukrainian 72nd Mechanized Brigade which is a completely different unit.)

Getting their experienced units chewed up in Bakhmut is a bonus for the Ukrainians. If those units are spent after heavy fighting in Bakhmut, they won't be available to plug the gaps when the Ukrainian offensive gets into full swing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like a great place to visit in an F16.

Why not stay awhile w. Abrams? I hear the APFSDS is excellent this time of year (very fresh).

 

[heltok]

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

"...] EU High Representative Josep Borrell has said he hopes that F-16 fighter jets will be soon delivered to Ukraine. [...]

According to Borrell, it is a good idea that the G7 has finally decided to prepare the ground to supply Ukraine with fighter jets it needs. He also said that 'pilot training has already begun', noting that he hopes that Ukraine will be soon provided with this type of weapon. [My underline.] [..."

Training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets already begun - Borrell

EU High Representative Josep Borrell has said he hopes that F-16 fighter jets will be soon delivered to Ukraine. â Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

 

[Skipdd]

Unclear if this is really a Russian insurgent group fighting in Russia, a false flag or what. Ukraine denies any involvement, but ”watching with interest.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660608298104631297