How do you say you’re planning a coup without saying you are planning a coup…
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
This should not be surprising. After the destruction of Nazi Germany the West helped to reform Western Germany in many ways, including fostering institutions that provided a culture towards denazification.
However, then and current Russia remain largely fascist. West Germany had several decades more positive influence under the West; however East Germany continued to be poisoned by Russian influence. Change takes generations.
Blue here is the AfD, which is the far right wing German party and only one that is sympathetic to fascism.
The left map is the "strongest party" and on the right map is the "second strongest party".
Germany has about 6 main political parties. In the 2021 national election, which elected Germany's center left coalition, the AfD party got 10% - mostly in the areas in blue shown.
Ukrainian forces having no luck today. Seems they tried to do a recon in force but failed and accidentally captured a settlement and also a river crossing. First sighting of AMX10 in this adventure. Hopefully tomorrow they get act together and stop the accidental destruction of Russian defenses.
For whatever it's worth:Modern day fascism and nazism in Ukraine
This is a NYT article, re-published by Yahoo
Nazi Symbols on Ukraine’s Front Lines Highlight Thorny Issues of History
KYIV, Ukraine — Since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainian government and NATO allies have posted, then quietly deleted, three seemingly innocuous photographs from their social media feeds: a soldier standing in a group, another resting in a trench and an...news.yahoo.com
My personal take is that it rings similar to what exists in the USA overall, although I don't know if US paramilitaries and soldiers parade around with nazi SS insignia
I'm no expert here, but my understanding is a blue stripe means supporting law enforcement and red stripe means supporting the fire service. As I understand it these are not fascist symbols, even if those who fly them may be inclined towards certain political leanings.
Well in other news the Russian volunteers are still in Belgorad..I mean Bilhorod.
Russian soldiers need to view the Monty Python "Black Knight" scene for inspiration, fighting is more fun than running away, even when it does cost you a couple of arms and a leg
Russia just destroyed the Kakhovskaya Hydroelectric Dam. This is the big one.
This will not only flood huge parts of Kherson, it will starve Crimea of water for years to come.
This seems like Russia’s admission that they expect to lose the Crimea. Very unlikely this is strategic unless Ukraine happened to have dozens of high value Western hardware in flood areas.
Also massively increases the chances they will cause a nuclear incident at the nuclear power facility.
This will not only flood huge parts of Kherson, it will starve Crimea of water for years to come.
This seems like Russia’s admission that they expect to lose the Crimea. Very unlikely this is strategic unless Ukraine happened to have dozens of high value Western hardware in flood areas.
Also massively increases the chances they will cause a nuclear incident at the nuclear power facility.
The New York Times just published an article saying they reviewed video and agree with this conclusion.
Russia-Ukraine War: Live Updates: Crucial Dam and Power Plant Destroyed on Southern Ukraine’s Front Lines
Ukraine blamed Russia for destroying the barrier, which feeds water to cool a nearby nuclear plant. Though images confirmed the destruction, it was unclear who was responsible.
BitJam
Active Member
Thank goodness people downstream will have several hours to evacuate.The New York Times just published an article saying they reviewed video and agree with this conclusion.
Russia-Ukraine War: Live Updates: Crucial Dam and Power Plant Destroyed on Southern Ukraine’s Front Lines
Ukraine blamed Russia for destroying the barrier, which feeds water to cool a nearby nuclear plant. Though images confirmed the destruction, it was unclear who was responsible.www.nytimes.com
Here is a simulation of what the flood may look like. Yet another war crime notch for Putin's belt.
BitJam
Active Member
Here is an early story that says the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is not in immediate danger.
cosmosmagazine.com
The primary concern is to have adequate cooling to prevent fuel rods from melting as they tend to do in nuclear power plant accidents. They say all the reactors are shut down. This lowers the need for cooling but does not eliminate it. Reactors keep producing heat after they are shut down because of a long chain of nuclear decays keep taking place.
Kakhovka dam blown open in Ukraine: will it affect the nuclear power plant?
The Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine has been blown up. It supplies water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
cosmosmagazine.com
The primary concern is to have adequate cooling to prevent fuel rods from melting as they tend to do in nuclear power plant accidents. They say all the reactors are shut down. This lowers the need for cooling but does not eliminate it. Reactors keep producing heat after they are shut down because of a long chain of nuclear decays keep taking place.
Dreadnought
Member
This is very sad. One can only hope that everyone downstream gets out of harm's way in time and the NPP gets shut down.
I'd call it a strategic move, though. The dam, as far as I know, was still usable as a bridge. And way up in this thread, it was speculated that closing the floodgates of the dam would facilitate a river crossing. This seems off the table now.
Modern day fascism and nazism in Ukraine
This is a NYT article, re-published by YahooNazi Symbols on Ukraine’s Front Lines Highlight Thorny Issues of History
KYIV, Ukraine — Since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainian government and NATO allies have posted, then quietly deleted, three seemingly innocuous photographs from their social media feeds: a soldier standing in a group, another resting in a trench and an...
My personal take is that it rings similar to what exists in the USA overall, although I don't know if US paramilitaries and soldiers parade around with nazi SS insignia
The founder of The Wagner Group has swastika tattoos (Prigozhin took it from them). The Russia side has a lot of outspoken Nazis.
Crimean water has been cut off since 2014. Crimea's water supply is a mix of water piped in from Russia and well water. There is not enough water coming in for agriculture so the cutoff of water from the Dnipro in 2014 shut down Crimean agriculture.
Apparently the worst flooding will be on the left bank (Russian held). There are bluffs on the Kherson city side.
My partner who does domestic violence perpetrator counseling, said that it's a classic DV perp move. "If I can't have it, nobody can."
Here is an early story that says the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is not in immediate danger.
Kakhovka dam blown open in Ukraine: will it affect the nuclear power plant?
The Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine has been blown up. It supplies water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
The primary concern is to have adequate cooling to prevent fuel rods from melting as they tend to do in nuclear power plant accidents. They say all the reactors are shut down. This lowers the need for cooling but does not eliminate it. Reactors keep producing heat after they are shut down because of a long chain of nuclear decays keep taking place.
This was my biggest concern.
All 6 reactors were shut down several months ago. They still need water circulation, but the demand is minimal.
Russia mined the dam when they lost the right bank of the river. Ukraine knew this and wouldn’t have risked crossing the dam until they had eliminated the risk of the Russians blowing the dam.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Even in cold shutdown, a NPP requires active cooling for years before it can be defueled.
Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam - Wikipedia
Blasts at major dam in southern Ukraine unleash floodwaters | Reuters
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petit_bateau
Active Member
I believe Russia had reinstated the canal water to Crimea since they took the dam etc
Seems to me this (partial dam breach, notably not a full breach* *** see EDIT ****) is Russia trying to reduce the frontage at risk, and playing the ZNPP blackmail card again.
Fairly clearly Ukraine is now probing along quite a lot of the front, with non trivial force. But at some point they will have to make choices so as to focus the efforts and the logistics. I don't think we are seeing that yet
**** * EDIT - actually it might almost as well be a full breach. In which case the upstream level becomes de facto uncontrollable and low. That in turn will tend to mean that Ukraine will want to a) recapture the dam PDQ so as to do an emergency breach reinstatement (!!) and b) recapture the six ZNPP reactors so as to do their absolute best to get them into an even safer condition than at present, by hook or by crook. That in turn may force particular decisions on Ukraine in terms of the offensive that is commencing. ****
* I was going off other photos of the dam damage earlier. These are far worse.
Seems to me this (partial dam breach, notably not a full breach* *** see EDIT ****) is Russia trying to reduce the frontage at risk, and playing the ZNPP blackmail card again.
Fairly clearly Ukraine is now probing along quite a lot of the front, with non trivial force. But at some point they will have to make choices so as to focus the efforts and the logistics. I don't think we are seeing that yet
**** * EDIT - actually it might almost as well be a full breach. In which case the upstream level becomes de facto uncontrollable and low. That in turn will tend to mean that Ukraine will want to a) recapture the dam PDQ so as to do an emergency breach reinstatement (!!) and b) recapture the six ZNPP reactors so as to do their absolute best to get them into an even safer condition than at present, by hook or by crook. That in turn may force particular decisions on Ukraine in terms of the offensive that is commencing. ****
* I was going off other photos of the dam damage earlier. These are far worse.
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bo3bdar
Member
Russia appears to be in much more dire straits than it would seem from their presentation. For the people that invented the Potemkin village, this seems be in character. Here's another headslapper along that lines:
www.nytimes.com
If things are all great in Russia and the war is going great and they are going to win, as the Russia tool David Sacks suggests, then why are they unable to block stuff like this from happening? I thought their FSB was supposed to have everything locked down.
It is also interesting to me to note that this information warfare works both ways now, Russia had a free ride for years on social media disruption, and the upcoming AI takeover of information spaces is going to make everything suspect, all the time. Using spoofed audio to stick them in the eye is karmic retribution.
Be sure to question literally everything that comes from the internet. The AI spoofing from ChatGPT and others is just getting started.
For example, if you watch a few YouTube videos on the war, the algorithm will start suggesting a bunch of AI/ChatGPT generated trash that is created just to get viewers and ad dollars. It's auto-generated scripts from ChatGPT, with random war images not necessarily related to what the robot Text-to-speech is saying. It's all a waste of time.
Fake Putin Speech Calling for Martial Law Aired in Russia
The Kremlin said it was investigating what it called a “hack” after a bogus speech aired on some radio and television networks.
If things are all great in Russia and the war is going great and they are going to win, as the Russia tool David Sacks suggests, then why are they unable to block stuff like this from happening? I thought their FSB was supposed to have everything locked down.
It is also interesting to me to note that this information warfare works both ways now, Russia had a free ride for years on social media disruption, and the upcoming AI takeover of information spaces is going to make everything suspect, all the time. Using spoofed audio to stick them in the eye is karmic retribution.
Be sure to question literally everything that comes from the internet. The AI spoofing from ChatGPT and others is just getting started.
For example, if you watch a few YouTube videos on the war, the algorithm will start suggesting a bunch of AI/ChatGPT generated trash that is created just to get viewers and ad dollars. It's auto-generated scripts from ChatGPT, with random war images not necessarily related to what the robot Text-to-speech is saying. It's all a waste of time.
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petit_bateau
Active Member
One to watch
Also Tornados from either/or/both UK and Germany might be in play again
or ex-Australia F18
www.afr.com
I rather suspect that watching pictures of that dam breach and knowing the implications for the ZNPP is going to be focussing some minds in Western capitals towards a "get this over with and fully won PDQ" ...... and maybe in China as well who will be not at all amused.
I have not seen any credible public domain studies for how long the six ZNPP reactors can go without external makeup for the cooling water that is in the plant's own ponds. Four of the reactors are fully shut down, the other two offline and in various stages of warmish shut down. These two were producing steam for the area & plant heating & services at least until recently. There is supposed to be approximately two weeks of diesel on site to keep the systems running (coolant pumps etc) in case of the (to be expected, again) loss of the HV grid feeds and so the coolant ponds will be good for at least two weeks. Beyond that I have no insight. This begins to set some timescales and likely will force the Ukraine planners to favour a more central thrust.
A reminder that in war, both sides get to make moves. This is at the upper level of the shaping that Russia can do, short of going tactical-nuclear.
Also Tornados from either/or/both UK and Germany might be in play again
or ex-Australia F18
Retired RAAF fighter jets could be sent to Ukraine
Australia, the US and Ukraine are discussing sending 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv, rather than sending them to the scrapheap as planned.
I rather suspect that watching pictures of that dam breach and knowing the implications for the ZNPP is going to be focussing some minds in Western capitals towards a "get this over with and fully won PDQ" ...... and maybe in China as well who will be not at all amused.
I have not seen any credible public domain studies for how long the six ZNPP reactors can go without external makeup for the cooling water that is in the plant's own ponds. Four of the reactors are fully shut down, the other two offline and in various stages of warmish shut down. These two were producing steam for the area & plant heating & services at least until recently. There is supposed to be approximately two weeks of diesel on site to keep the systems running (coolant pumps etc) in case of the (to be expected, again) loss of the HV grid feeds and so the coolant ponds will be good for at least two weeks. Beyond that I have no insight. This begins to set some timescales and likely will force the Ukraine planners to favour a more central thrust.
A reminder that in war, both sides get to make moves. This is at the upper level of the shaping that Russia can do, short of going tactical-nuclear.
