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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Turns out there are still A LOT of corporations that continue to 'do business' with the Russian Dictator.

Some examples: Philip Morris (of course), Pepsi, Danone, Nestlé, Mars with Snickers, Twix etc., Procter & Gamble, Carlsberg, Mondelez with Marabou, Toblerone, Milka etc., Unilever with e.g. GB Clace, L'Oreal and GEELY. GEELY owns Volvo Cars and Polestar. GEELY does however not own Volvo Group. Volvo Group makes the trucks, buses and construction equipment among other things.

For a complete list:
I’ll adjust my investments accordingly. Thank you.
 
I'm a tad undecided on who caused the dam failure, but Ryan McBeth has an interesting video, where he paid for sat footage to backup his claims, that the dam wasn't bombed or blown up by internal explosives, but it was a failure of the structure itself due to mis-management (Russian).


Now, this doesn't fully explain the intercepted phone call, but he's got some convincing info and at least part of the dam appeared to have literally broken off a few days before the catastrophic failure.
 
I'm a tad undecided on who caused the dam failure, but Ryan McBeth has an interesting video, where he paid for sat footage to backup his claims, that the dam wasn't bombed or blown up by internal explosives, but it was a failure of the structure itself due to mis-management (Russian).


Now, this doesn't fully explain the intercepted phone call, but he's got some convincing info and at least part of the dam appeared to have literally broken off a few days before the catastrophic failure.
Make more sense that this dam event wasn’t a Russian attempt at a clever diabolical 4D chess military tactic but rather just one more instance of Russian govt drunken corrupt incompetent negligence.
 
Make more sense that this dam event wasn’t a Russian attempt at a clever diabolical 4D chess military tactic but rather just one more instance of Russian govt drunken corrupt incompetent negligence.

The water level was rapidly rising. And it did appear in images to over-top. Would completely fit the Russian MO of complete and utter incompetence.
 
Has the report (¿Swedish?) that seismic data demonstrated an explosive event in the immediate period before the collapse been corroborated or refuted?

It's in the video I linked, and the seismic data reported doesn't really support an explosion (would have shown up differently on a seismometer and there would have been a secondary wave from the water collapse through the dam - there is only what appears to be a single wave, likely indicative of the water collapse only).
 
When the Russians blew the bridge over the dam in November, it may have affected the overall structural integrity or the floodgates. The water level had been rather low for quite some time, which I had interpreted as a deliberate measure to keep the Dnipro at an elevated level to complicate a potential crossing by UAF. It may have been negligence or incapacitated control systems, either of which would explain the rising level in the reservoir in spring.

Or (still my favourite theory) they intended to blow a small hole intended to cause a much smaller and longer lasting flood but ignored / misjudged the destructive force of the water flushing through the breach.

If the dam was intentionally destroyed, will there be enough evidence to identify and convict the responsible CO? I doubt it and would be glad if it turned out otherwise. But Russia is responsible in any case. They started the war, they occupied and controlled the dam. Whatever it was, it happened under their watch.
 
Someone had better be able to demonstrate his seismology skills are superior to mine for me to believe that statement. I am not a seismologist but in my years as a volcanologist (before I transitioned into geochemistry) I acquired a fair facility in reading these data.
I’m not being dogmatic about this: there are many hundreds of geophysicists who can chime in and if someone credibly refutes it, I’ll change my mind. That would directly contradict the Norwegian seismologists who initiated the report, however.

Report and data here:
 
Someone had better be able to demonstrate his seismology skills are superior to mine for me to believe that statement. I am not a seismologist but in my years as a volcanologist (before I transitioned into geochemistry) I acquired a fair facility in reading these data.
I’m not being dogmatic about this: there are many hundreds of geophysicists who can chime in and if someone credibly refutes it, I’ll change my mind. That would directly contradict the Norwegian seismologists who initiated the report, however.

Report and data here:

That title should more accurately be "Seismologists observed seismic wave from Kakhovka dam".

As a scientist myself, I can say they should not jump immediately to conclusions, they should just report the data itself. There was a single wave event, not two, reported.

Pictures don't lie either, the dam was over-topping with water in the days before the failure. That's the worst possible thing you can do, for any dam.
 
Can't remember if this has been posted previously:

"Russia Preparing 'Man-Made Catastrophe' at Crimean Titan Plant: Ukraine

BY ISABEL VAN BRUGEN ON 6/12/23 AT 9:26 AM EDT

Russia is preparing a "man-made catastrophe" at the Titan chemical plant in annexed Crimea, Kyiv's military intelligence agency, GUR, said on Monday.

Russian forces are mining the workshops of the plant, located in Armyansk in the northern part of the Black Sea peninsula that Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed from Ukraine in 2014, according to the GUR. [...]

"In the temporarily occupied Armyansk in the north of the Crimean peninsula, the Russians are preparing for the evacuation of both representatives of the occupation administration and the local population," [..."

 
That title should more accurately be "Seismologists observed seismic wave from Kakhovka dam".

As a scientist myself, I can say they should not jump immediately to conclusions, they should just report the data itself. There was a single wave event, not two, reported.

Pictures don't lie either, the dam was over-topping with water in the days before the failure. That's the worst possible thing you can do, for any dam.
Is it possible that both things could have contributed to the collapse? Ukraine intelligence released phone intercept of Russians discussing it and the point as I recall was that they just wanted to create a small breech to scare the Ukranians and the complete collapse took them by surprise. I was wondering if it was just propaganda, but maybe the complete lack of maintenance, high waters and perhaps a small explosion caused the complete collapse. Either way its the Russian's fault whether by complete incompetentence and negligence or by deliberate sabotage while the dam was under their control.
 
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The most compelling explanation I’ve heard regarding why Putin so far has allowed Shoigu/Gerasimov vs. Prigozhin to play out:

Hitler use to instigate contension between his immediate subordinates who then went out of their way to try to top one another as the most devoted to the Führer, as a means to insure they weren't plotting against him. Most likely Putin is paranoid of anyone having success/power who can threaten his reign and this fighting will give him a sense of ease that they aren't plotting together. It's not easy being a paranoid socipathic mass murderer.
 
Is it possible that both things could have contributed to the collapse? Ukraine intelligence released phone intercept of Russians discussing it and the point as I recall was that they just wanted to create a small breech to scare the Ukranians and the complete collapse took them by surprise. I was wondering if it was just propaganda, but maybe the complete lack of maintenance, high waters and perhaps a small explosion caused the complete collapse. Either way its the Russian's fault wether by complete incompetentence and negligence or by deliberate sabotage while the dam was under their control.

Absolutely. But the phone intercept doesn't impress me when you read the transcript. Could just be a bunch of conscripts speculating, or what not.

What I found very convincing were the sat photos that showed:
1) part of the bridge on the Russian side had collapsed, and prior photos showed something happening in that area near the water
2) the dam had been over-topping for days. Overtopping a dam with water is a gigantic risk for collapse.

Could all be true? Possible. The Russians could have been negligent AND blown up the dam. But Ryan McBeth did a pretty thorough analysis there with some very nice sat photos.
 
That title should more accurately be "Seismologists observed seismic wave from Kakhovka dam".

As a scientist myself, I can say they should not jump immediately to conclusions, they should just report the data itself. There was a single wave event, not two, reported.

Pictures don't lie either, the dam was over-topping with water in the days before the failure. That's the worst possible thing you can do, for any dam.
I’m not looking to cause any shock waves here. Your paragraph #2, though, is not quite right. Seismologists don’t simply report those data - it is exactly they who are trained in how to interpret them. I think the analogy to an EKG is spot on: a cardiologist doesn’t just tell her patient “Here’s your EKG. Go onto the internet and let me know what it means” (does she?😬😂).

Your paragraph #3: Weeeeellllll….second worst. 💣💥 ;)
 
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I’m not looking to cause any shock waves here. Your paragraph #2, though, is not quite right. Seismologists don’t simply report those data - it is exactly they who are trained in how to interpret them. I think the analogy to an EKG is spot on: a cardiologist doesn’t just tell her patient “Here’s your EKG. Go onto the internet and let me know what it means” (does she?😬😂).

Your paragraph #3: Weeeeellllll….second worst. 💣💥 ;)

Great, CONVINCE me I'm wrong. Show me someone's analysis that disagrees. Ryan went to seismologists at Sandford for their interpretation of the seismographs, and he presents that information in his video.

You have just said . . . "your wrong" and "I know better" with not much else.

I don't know if Ryan McBeth is right or not, but he makes a convincing argument, backs it up with data. Give me another convincing argument, backed up by data, and I'm happy to consider it.
 
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