Like I said earlier today and last week… I would want to know where he was, where his forces were.Read this in German news first but found it also on other channels. FSB is investigating Prigozhin for armed mutiny.
Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military
FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stoppedwww.theguardian.com
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Also remember Girkin is backed by FSB. This is the MOD vs inner circle oligarchs. My my, Ukraine director of intelligence must be having funRead this in German news first but found it also on other channels. FSB is investigating Prigozhin for armed mutiny.
Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military
FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Hopefully they are equally descriptive in what is getting blown up and destroyed.
Dreadnought
Member
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
It does appear that something is happening.
Allegedly:
Allegedly:
Is this the MOD attempting the coup? Where is the FSB? This morning I wanted to know where Wagner was...now find out where the FSB forces are.
For something this nice microwave popcorn really won't cut it, we need to go get some good stuff, melt some real butter.
For something this nice microwave popcorn really won't cut it, we need to go get some good stuff, melt some real butter.
BitJam
Active Member
Some early reporting on the alleged Russian civil war.
Near the end of the video the narrator warns:
I haven't been following this channel. This video seems reasonable although I don't expect 100% of it to be accurate. The channel is very pro-Ukraine with videos like:
Near the end of the video the narrator warns:
I have to be completely honest with everyone; historical instances of civil wars breaking out in the middle of a conflict like this are quite rare with one of the few large examples of this happening would be the October Revolution in 1917 while the Russian Empire was involved in the first world war.
I haven't been following this channel. This video seems reasonable although I don't expect 100% of it to be accurate. The channel is very pro-Ukraine with videos like:
- Ukrainian artillery destroys Russian unit
- Ukraine destroys a whole artillery battery
- Ukraine invents a new technical
- Ukraine forces rapidly advance in southern front
Russian casualties among their combat engineering forces have been very light. Most engineering units are still at the same strength level as they were in February last year. There is a huge qualitative gap between the specialist non-combat units like the combat engineers and the frontline combat units at this point.
Ukraine got through the first line of defenses pretty easily. The best defenses in the world are useless if you don't put anybody in the fortifications.
Russia's decision to send their units out in front of their defenses to attack the Ukrainians instead of waiting for Ukraine to come to them is incredibly stupid. That's like knowing you're going into a gun fight and taking off your Kevlar body armor.
Shooting down missiles moving at ballistic speeds is a very complicated problem. The Patriot was the first system designed for this and it's early versions were not that great at it. It has gotten much better since the first Gulf War, but they have had 30 years to work on it.
The Pantsir was never designed to hit missiles, it was designed as an anti-aircraft system to shoot down jets. Even if the design can be changed enough to make it an effective anti-missile platform, that will likely take major electronics improvements as well as a lot of software that will probably take years to write and debug effectively. With the sanctions and Russia's brain drain they don't have the resources to make those upgrades even if they knew what to do.
My partner has some Amish popcorn she really likes. Looks like time to break that out...
The guy quotes reliable Twitter channels.
What exactly is happening in Russia is very confusing. Apparently a fire broke out at a military base just outside Moscow
This could go several different ways. Wagner appears to be getting help from some other Russian army units, which shows more than just a rebellion and sides shaping up for a real civil war.
If a civil war does break out, pretty much all the commanders in the field in Ukraine will want to pull out of Ukraine and back to Russia as quickly as possible to preserve their forces for the civil war, no matter which side they choose. That could result in the Ukrainian part of this war ending within weeks.
There were stories last year of oligarchs forming their own PMCs in record numbers. I would expect most if not all to throw their lot in with Prigozhin if Prigozhin's forces survive the next couple of days.
This could just be a rebellion that will be put down by Moscow fairly quickly, or it could turn into a full blown civil war. A lot depends on how many join Prigozhin's side. If Prigozhin gets a fairly sizable force, then the civil war is on. If he doesn't, Wagner will be crushed from the weight of loyalist forces, though Wagner will do a lot of damage to those forces before they succumb.
Wagner is the best fighting force Russia has, they are just small compared to the regular army.
If a full blown civil war breaks out, I would expect the outer regions of Russia to start breaking off from Moscow and declaring their own country. Chechnya will probably be first. If Chechnya declares independence and Moscow effectively does nothing, then other provinces will start breaking away too.
Many larger armies like the US Army have a mix of people from all over the country. Go to any US Army unit of any size and you will likely find people from each of the 50 states. That makes it difficult for a unit to stay together in the event of a civil war. US National Guard units are more regional though being drawn from individual states.
A lot of Russia's army is made up of regional units. Even the elite units like the airborne troops are made up in large part of the people from the region around the main base for the unit. The regular line units are even more uni-cultural. In a Russian break up scenario most of these units are going to switch their loyalty to their home province and not throw their lot in with Moscow.
Because the Moscow/St Petersburg region doesn't not send many people to the army, there are few units with regional loyalty to there and Moscow will be left with a deficit of troops to try and take back the rural provinces even if the rebellion is put down.
If this rebellion lasts more than a few days, the civil war could end up going on for years. The good news for Ukraine is they will finally be at peace and their job will just be to fortify their borders, maybe help a faction that they like in Russia, but otherwise get on with the job of rebuilding the country.
FYI- just so folks know that Rostov on Don has the HQ for the southern russian region of the armed forces. Putin has visited there during the campaign and this is where much of the campaign is "managed". It's also a good sized city. Lots of industrial sites, refinery is there. Nuke plant a hundred miles away I think, though no tactical or strategic nukes. Airbase of course and the canal over to the Caspian Sea. It's a key city and the 10th largest in Russia. A great place to form a force and dare the MOD to attack. He'd be able to cut significant oil shipments.
If he did indeed make a move on Rostov on Don this will be interesting. Amish popcorn sounds like a good plan. Use some amish butter if you can find it.
I think this tweet from Igor Sushko relates to what you are saying.
“Russia: "The Ministry of Defence has lost control over a number of units and formations of the Southern Military District, it will not be possible to organize the defense by the RosGvradia and the FSB. The local leaders are extremely careful in their statements." That's Rostov.”
I will try to paste the link below. (Links not posting sorry)
Wagner in Rostov - making more sense now.
And just saw this picture with trucks and police cars showing Rostov blocked.
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So who here is going to Rostov on Don to join the Wagner Army?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Play misty for me, Vlad. As in, "I mist ya once..."
Latest images from Moscow: City preparing for uprising -Large number of equipment moving on streets | Kanal13
Cue the Doors music. "This is the end...:
Budmo!
Latest images from Moscow: City preparing for uprising -Large number of equipment moving on streets | Kanal13
Cue the Doors music. "This is the end...:
Budmo!
More videos of convoy moving toward rostov on don
Twitter Space @MriyaReport
| #Russiancoup ? @MalcolmNance | Ukraine fights on
Malcom Nance is on Twitter Spaces discussing the Ukraine War and the Ruskie coup.
| #Russiancoup ? @MalcolmNance | Ukraine fights onMalcom Nance is on Twitter Spaces discussing the Ukraine War and the Ruskie coup.
He's always interesting but made a key mistake as an analyst. He's assuming wagner troops moving towards Moscow. When in fact it is Rostov that is a beehive. Rostov on Don is a place Wagner has connections, also a province that gave up quite a lot of mobilized.
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