Tiger
Active Member
Finland is built for defense only. They might politely ask for Carelia back, but that's all.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Finland is built for defense only. They might politely ask for Carelia back, but that's all.
BitJam
Active Member
First F16 Squadron Already Terrorizing Russia Aviation [seems like speculation]
He claims that F16s from several European countries were scheduled to arrive in Ukraine before the end of this year. He says F16s started to arrive in the western part of the front (not Kherson).
He also reports there were no more Russian air assaults on the Kherson bridgeheads. Instead there were large ground assaults that were repulsed partly because Ukraine benefited from the lack of air assaults. In addition, Ukraine beefed up their electronic warfare systems and eliminated 32 Russian surveillance drones in the area with some Russian units running out of drones.
I have yet to see solid evidence that F16s have arrived and are being used. OTOH "Reporting from Ukraine" is usually a reliable source that gets the news several days early.
About a month ago both Perun and Anders said Russia was considering pulling back from the Dnieper in Kherson in order to set up their lines in more defensible positions. While this may make sense strategically I doubt Russia will let Ukraine get heavy equipment across the Dnieper without a big fight because of Putin's political need to make it look like he's winning the war. There is a lot at stake for both sides now in this area. I hope to see Russian losses pile up as they continue to fight where Ukraine has the terrain advantage.
He claims that F16s from several European countries were scheduled to arrive in Ukraine before the end of this year. He says F16s started to arrive in the western part of the front (not Kherson).
He also reports there were no more Russian air assaults on the Kherson bridgeheads. Instead there were large ground assaults that were repulsed partly because Ukraine benefited from the lack of air assaults. In addition, Ukraine beefed up their electronic warfare systems and eliminated 32 Russian surveillance drones in the area with some Russian units running out of drones.
I have yet to see solid evidence that F16s have arrived and are being used. OTOH "Reporting from Ukraine" is usually a reliable source that gets the news several days early.
About a month ago both Perun and Anders said Russia was considering pulling back from the Dnieper in Kherson in order to set up their lines in more defensible positions. While this may make sense strategically I doubt Russia will let Ukraine get heavy equipment across the Dnieper without a big fight because of Putin's political need to make it look like he's winning the war. There is a lot at stake for both sides now in this area. I hope to see Russian losses pile up as they continue to fight where Ukraine has the terrain advantage.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Back when Finland decided on the F-18s that are going to be replaced soon, there were media reports that one reason they chose the F-18s were that they had the range to be able to do bombing runs on Moscow. Don't know how accurate those reports where though... Also guessing that it would be hard to accomplish in reality without getting shot down...
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
The author behind the Swedish blog that has been following the Russian Dictator's war since the beginning also mentioned rumors about F-16s the day before yesterday when the three Russians Su-34s where shot down.
Source (in Swedish):
Kyrktornet i Gammalsvenskby bombat - hård rysk jul med massiva rysk förluster och tre nedskjutna Su-34
Det blir ingen julefrid i Ukraina vad det ser ut som. Klocktornet på kyrkan i Gammalsvenskby har bombats av ryssarna, som själva upplever en hård jul med massiva förluster inklusive tre toppmoderna Su-34 attackplan nedskjutna under gårdagen.
cornucopia.se
X Fan
Active Member
Sorry, Finland or Poland are not going to risk nuclear war to fight Russia, nor are they offensive oriented. Further, USA, Germany and France would restrain.
re: Intelligence: they have been wrong on a host of conflicts particularly consistently on ukr (Kyiv would fall) and lately Israel.
here is just one article: Putin and the failure of Western Intelligence | Jack Barsky
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
"We are not bombed, we are not suffering, only Ukraine can talk of war fatigue, In our countries, we can say that we are used to this war, but we are not tired. Our cities are not bombed, our citizens are not killed. Our only burden of helping Ukraine is the reception of refugees and a certain decrease in comfort, we do not feel suffering." - Petr Pavel, President of the Czech Republic, in an interview with French Le Monde on December 20th. [My underline.]
twitter.com/kvistp/status/1737950456171634843?s=20
twitter.com/kvistp/status/1737950456171634843?s=20
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Did the Russian Dictator just loose his sixth aircraft in 3 days?...
Incoming reports of a Russian military plane crashing near the airport in Yeysk, Russia.
Did Ukraine just shoot down a 6th Russian plane in 3 days?
Mariupol is just a few kilometers away across the strait.
twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1739262241864552898?s=20
Incoming reports of a Russian military plane crashing near the airport in Yeysk, Russia.
Did Ukraine just shoot down a 6th Russian plane in 3 days?
Mariupol is just a few kilometers away across the strait.
twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1739262241864552898?s=20
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Australia deploys E-7A Wedgetail to Germany in ongoing support for Ukraine - Airforce Technology
Australia has deployed an E-7A Wedgetail aircraft and provided an allocation of $20m for military assistance.
www.airforce-technology.com
Allegedly:
There are rumors that an E-7 Wedgetail AWACS plane of the RAAF has been providing information to #ukraine in the South from its position over Romania.
Here is the Radar Plot for an E-7, with various target altitudes.
More explanations in the thread below^^
twitter.com/chrisschmitz/status/1739305910227329054
BitJam
Active Member
More F16 speculation ...
Ukraine shoots down multiple Russian jets
With two more Russian jets shot down (total of five), Anders thinks it's more likely they were shot down by F16s than by Patriots, although it may be Patriots, a combination of F16s and Patriots, or it may even be something else like domestic Ukrainian missiles.
Ukraine shoots down multiple Russian jets
Ukraine has shot down five Russian fighter jets in the last few days. In this video I discuss what is going on, and why it may be the beginning of a new phase in the air war.
With two more Russian jets shot down (total of five), Anders thinks it's more likely they were shot down by F16s than by Patriots, although it may be Patriots, a combination of F16s and Patriots, or it may even be something else like domestic Ukrainian missiles.
I think it's important to be aware of the air battle because there are some interesting things happening there -- Ukraine is getting more Patriot systems and the F16s are starting to come into service -- that may create some important dynamics on the front line.
We've already had Tanks-Giving. Maybe Ukraine's Christmas wishes are starting to come true.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Because he wasn't interested in becoming Leader of Russia. Not everybody wants to be the next Stalin. Turns out, he was the next Trotsky.
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I looked at the reported Russian equipment stockpile at the beginning of the war vs the reported losses. The reported losses don't completely overlap with the equipment categories. For example it's unclear if the artillery losses reported include mortars or not. Most mortars are small enough to be considered infantry weapons. Though some large caliber mortars are approaching the size of field guns.
It looks like Russia's at start stock of guns has been badly depleted. Only about 1/3 of MLRS systems have been taken out. Less than 10% of anti-aircraft have been lost. Armored fighting vehicle losses have been steep, as have unarmored vehicles. Tank losses are high, and most have been more modern variants, but they still have a lot of tanks.
What I find interesting are the stories of the Russians stripping all the remote provinces of anti-aircraft systems when their losses have been so light. Almost half of Russia's anti-aircraft systems are S-300s. They may be using all of them as rocket artillery at this point.
What isn't included in these figures is the equipment that has simply worn out and is no longer usable. We have heard stories that Russia has lost a lot of artillery due to wear and tear. They have probably lost a lot of tanks and transport vehicles due to wear too.
It looks like Russia's at start stock of guns has been badly depleted. Only about 1/3 of MLRS systems have been taken out. Less than 10% of anti-aircraft have been lost. Armored fighting vehicle losses have been steep, as have unarmored vehicles. Tank losses are high, and most have been more modern variants, but they still have a lot of tanks.
What I find interesting are the stories of the Russians stripping all the remote provinces of anti-aircraft systems when their losses have been so light. Almost half of Russia's anti-aircraft systems are S-300s. They may be using all of them as rocket artillery at this point.
What isn't included in these figures is the equipment that has simply worn out and is no longer usable. We have heard stories that Russia has lost a lot of artillery due to wear and tear. They have probably lost a lot of tanks and transport vehicles due to wear too.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
It is curious that Navalny is still alive, while a host of much more restrained critics with no where near his influence have been murdered.
Is Putin more grumpy than usual ?
Tiger
Active Member
A brief note on Alexei Navalny's disappearance from prison
Nothing is as it seems with this shady Russian ultranationalist playing the role of Putin's nemesis and friend of the West
igorsushko.substack.com
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Guessing that there won't be much left after that explosion. So this seems reasonable...
The Russian Ministry of Defense considered this 'damaged'. First images of the Ropucha-class landing ship Novocherkask emerged after being hit in Feodosia.
To me this looks more like vaporized and vanished.
twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1739590753234428016
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
The entire explosion. The second tweet/reply below. Headphone users beware:
twitter.com/WokemasterB/status/1739588611996024834
twitter.com/WokemasterB/status/1739588611996024834
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Imagine if Ukraine had another hundred ATACMS, TAURUS, Storm Shadow or SCALP? Crimea would be untenable base for Russia...no navy, no air force, no drone launches against innocent civilians, no logistics hub to sustain Russian defenses in southern Ukraine...no Kerch Bridge.
twitter.com/general_ben/status/1739579513594323265
twitter.com/general_ben/status/1739579513594323265
What do you mean? That will buff right out.
Reminds me of the PR stunt the US pulled after Pearl Harbor. There were two destroyers in dry dock with the Pennsylvania during the attack and they were pretty much destroyed by fire. The USN recovered some pieces that could be salvaged, sent them back to Alameda, where they built entirely new destroyers and incorporated the salvaged parts. They then named the new ships the same and claimed they had been repaired.
The shock wave from the blast was pretty intense. There is a railway station about 600 m from the blast and the shock wave was strong enough to partially tear the window frames out of the wall. In between the ship and the railway station is a railyard. Plus that port usually has 7-15 ships unloading at any point in time. Other ships were probably damaged and the railyard may have been damaged too. At minimum the unloading equipment on the pier where that ship was tied up is probably badly damaged and needs to be replaced.
We'll know more when the satellite photos start coming in.
I agree with Hodges that Ukraine could make Russia's supply situation in the south untenable if they had enough advanced weapons to shut down Crimea.
