Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

I blame this on Ukraine and Zelensky. Not only did they violate the terms for prisoner exchange, they publicly bragged about the violation!

Moscow denounces return of Mariupol commanders sent to Turkey in prisoner swap

Moscow denounces return of Mariupol commanders sent to Turkey in prisoner swap

President Zelenskiy flies men back to Ukraine as Russia says Turkey has violated terms

www.theguardian.com

Moscow freed some of them in September in a prisoner swap brokered by Ankara, under terms that required the commanders to remain in Turkey until the end of the war.​

​

“We are returning home from Turkey and bringing our heroes home,” said Zelenskiy who met Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan for talks in Istanbul on Friday.​

​

I 100% back Ukraine in their war to oust the Russian invaders but that doesn't mean everything Ukraine does is right. When this violation happened last summer and many people were delighting in it I said it was a terrible idea. There is now very little incentive for Russia to exchange high level prisoners or to exchange prisoners with a conditioned release. It's heart breaking. They f'ed around and found out.

A smarter way to get those guys back from Turkey would have been for Turkey to let them escape and then have Ukraine special forces pick them up off a beach somewhere. Turkey can say "oops" we screwed up and Ukraine could be the hero for rescuing their interned fighters.

 

[UrsS]

I blame this on Ukraine and Zelensky. Not only did they violate the terms for prisoner exchange, they publicly bragged about the violation!

Moscow denounces return of Mariupol commanders sent to Turkey in prisoner swap

Moscow denounces return of Mariupol commanders sent to Turkey in prisoner swap

President Zelenskiy flies men back to Ukraine as Russia says Turkey has violated terms

www.theguardian.com

Moscow freed some of them in September in a prisoner swap brokered by Ankara, under terms that required the commanders to remain in Turkey until the end of the war.​

​

“We are returning home from Turkey and bringing our heroes home,” said Zelenskiy who met Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan for talks in Istanbul on Friday.​

​

I 100% back Ukraine in their war to oust the Russian invaders but that doesn't mean everything Ukraine does is right. When this violation happened last summer and many people were delighting in it I said it was a terrible idea. There is now very little incentive for Russia to exchange high level prisoners or to exchange prisoners with a conditioned release. It's heart breaking. They f'ed around and found out.

As we all know there is no agreements/contracts/promises/treaties . . . Putin will honor. So making any 'terms' with Russia is absolutely meaningless. Ukraine knew that it does not make a iota of a difference whether they keep their end of the bargain or not - it will not influence Russia's future behavior.

 

[BitJam]

Would agree when principled actors are involved, the incentive to exchange high level prisoners diminishes.

Not making excuses for Ukraine for any skullduggery, but they may understand the Russian playbook better than us.

Prisoner exchanges are good. They are a sliver of humanity in the grotesque and inhumane business of war. Sabotaging future prisoner exchanges is bad whether those exchanges are with Russia or with other countries who now see that Ukraine (and by extension, the West) do not act in good faith. Ukraine boasting about their duplicity may also be used as an excuse when a bad actor chooses to violate exchange terms in the future.

Thank goodness the belligerents in the Middle East did not follow Ukraine's lead. And thank goodness trust in the good faith of the West has not been totally eroded. The results could have been horrific.

The example provided by @navguy12 demonstrates why it may be even more important to act honorable when dealing with someone who is dishonorable. In addition, from that same article:

Both Natalias hope that soon their Artems will be included in one of the sporadic prisoner exchanges arranged in tense negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, but none have taken place since 7 August. Ukrainian officials claim Russia has lost interest in negotiating swaps.​

​

In July Ukraine brags about violating the terms for prisoner exchange then early the next month Russia loses interest in further exchanges. As predicted.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia was morally clear cut. It was wrong. But Ukraine sabotaging prisoner exchanges was also clear cut and also wrong. In this case, Russia being a bad actor is not a good excuse for Ukraine to scupper further prisoner exchanges. If anything, exchanges with bad actors are more valuable than exchanges with good actors.

 

[BitJam]

A smarter way to get those guys back from Turkey would have been for Turkey to let them escape and then have Ukraine special forces pick them up off a beach somewhere. Turkey can say "oops" we screwed up and Ukraine could be the hero for rescuing their interned fighters.

Or Ukraine could have simply kept their word. In a long, drawn out, war like this one I think even Machiavelli would have recommended they keep their word regarding prisoner exchange.

A prince, therefore, should only keep his word when it suits his purposes, but do his utmost to maintain the illusion that he does keep his word and that he is reliable in that regard.​

I'm not saying honesty is always the best policy. For example, in order to get Japan to surrender at the end of WW-2, Truman said:

We will continue to use [atomic bombs] until we completely destroy Japan's power to make war.​

This was a bluff because the US didn't have any more atomic bombs after the ones used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It was a good and effective bluff. I don't think the US lost credibility after it was found out this was only a bluff. Of course, the US was ramping up production and could have had a few more bombs available within a month. But Truman's clear implication was that we had a ready stockpile and could rain them down on Japan almost immediately.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

This is also being reported by the UKR Air force themselves on Telegram and Facebook.

The Ukrainian General staff reports that it managed to shoot down 3 (!) Russian Su-34 fighter jets. Is this new air defense deployed in the south?

twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1738159330451464535

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738159330451464535

 

[DanCar]

TikTok being accused of manipulating public debate in war in Ukraine and more.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738109556507512942

Quote: Researchers believe that TikTok is likely manipulating public debate not only on China-specific topics, such as the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre but also on strategically important topics such as the wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.
/quote.
I found the replies entertaining also.

 

[DanCar]

According to below youtube channel, russians indicated it was a patriat missile system brought into the Kherson region that did the honors.

This is also being reported by the UKR Air force themselves on Telegram and Facebook.

The Ukrainian General staff reports that it managed to shoot down 3 (!) Russian Su-34 fighter jets. Is this new air defense deployed in the south?

twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1738159330451464535

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738159330451464535

 

[navguy12]

An update, behind a paywalled story, of the similar fight going on in the country of Miramar.

At the start of the conflict, many observers, including the junta’s allies Russia and China, expected the military to brush aside the resistance, as it has done in the past. But the Karenni and other ethnic militias, as well as the less well supplied People’s Defence Forces, have proven incredibly resilient.

They are also gaining experience in urban warfare, using drones to drop bombs on enemy positions and setting traps with improvised explosive devices.

As it has been driven out of towns and villages in Karenni State, the military has been accused of deploying landmines on a massive scale, a practice Amnesty International has said amounts to war crimes, and one that could make it impossible for thousands of people to return home in the future.

But despite the military’s brutality, and the immense cost borne by the civilian population – thousands killed and at least 2 million displaced, according to the United Nations – no one I spoke to regretted the sacrifice they were making.

“We cannot lose this fight. If we lose, we will be slaves,” Ree Du said. “We have to fight so the next generation can be free.”

On the new front line of Myanmar’s civil war, resistance fighters are gaining ground

In Myanmar, photojournalist Siegfried Modola captured the battle for the town of Loikaw and the toll the conflict has taken

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[iPlug]

This is also being reported by the UKR Air force themselves on Telegram and Facebook.

The Ukrainian General staff reports that it managed to shoot down 3 (!) Russian Su-34 fighter jets. Is this new air defense deployed in the south?

twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1738159330451464535

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738159330451464535

Per Zelenskyy, indeed they have expanded air defenses into the south:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738269961515119007

 

[navguy12]

After the rebellion ended, Patrushev began to develop an assassination plan. According to the publication's sources from Western intelligence services, Putin was later shown these plans and he did not object. On August 23, the head of the PMC waited at Sheremetyevo airport until his plane was checked and prepared for departure. At that moment, a small bomb was planted under the wing, according to the WSJ interlocutors in the Western intelligence services.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738107903133852002

 

[SwTslaGrl]

^It's a plausible scenario, the Security Council is the real power in Russia e.g. the siloviki (mostly former KGB).

 

[iPlug]

Thanks to the aggression of Russia and other 21st century Axis nations, both Germany and Japan have recently begun transitioning from a pacifist/”self-defense” orientation towards playing an increasingly direct role among the Allies.

Japan is scheduled now to increase their defense spending 16% next year, including accelerating long-range cruise missile deployment. By 2027 Japan plans to nearly double its annual spending.

Japan is now loosening their arms export ban so will now be able to sell missiles it manufactures independently for the Patriot missile defense system to the U.S. who can then replenish Indo-Pacific supplies while reallocating existing Indo-Pacific supplies to needed places like Ukraine.


Japan approves record $56 billion military spending – DW – 12/22/2023

 

[wdolson]

According to below youtube channel, russians indicated it was a patriat missile system brought into the Kherson region that did the honors.

I doubt it was Patriots. The Patriot system can shoot down aircraft, but it's designed to take out missiles and I would expect Ukraine would be husbanding all their Patriots around the major cities to defend against Russia's winter offensive.

There are some other AA missile systems the west has given to Ukraine that would be better suited to shooting down aircraft and they may have deployed a battery of those in the south to counter Russian aircraft.

 

[Crutonius]

Well, if you believe the Russians then they shot down their own planes.

Perhaps to intimidate Ukraine? Like, "look at what we do to our own aircraft, think of what we'll do to your F-16's!".

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Doesn't specify when though...

Netherlands prepares to transfer first 18 F-16s to Ukraine

Amsterdam says it will make an initial tranche of 18 fighter aircraft available to Ukraine, out of 42 F-16s the Dutch government previously committed to providing the Ukrainian air force from its own fleet.

www.flightglobal.com

 

[BitJam]

Georgi also says it was Patriots that shot down the three SU-34's:

TRIPLE STRIKE: Ukraine Downs Russian Bombers - Ukraine War Map Update 22/Dec/2023

TL;DR (of my take): Ukraine has been consistently using their best resources to secure the left bank of the Dnieper.

I am extremely impressed that Ukraine has always been a step or two ahead of Russia on the left bank of the Dnieper in Kherson (with the exception of the Kakhovka Dam flood which made Ukraine evacuate all their island footholds). Ukraine has been consistently committing their good stuff in that region. Early on it was the use of a lot of drones and artillery to keep Russian spotters at bay. More recently they've been a step ahead while maintaining and expanding their footholds/bridgeheads.

Recently Ukraine concentrated on getting rid of Russian artillery in the area. Georgi wondered how Ukraine would neutralize Russia's air supremacy in order to make use of the loss of Russia artillery and get heavy equipment across the Dnieper. If Ukraine has now put many civilian lives at risk by taking a Patriot missile system away from a major city in order to provide air support/cover for their incursions into the left bank then this is really big news.

My perspective has been to look at where Ukraine commits their most valuable resources. For months, the left bank of the Dnieper has been extremely interesting. In the past few weeks reports of Ukrainian successes and Russian failures in the region have grown from a trickle to a flood. It seem to be the only area where we've been getting consistently good news.

If it was a Patriot system that took down those Russian jets then I doubt this is just a feint by Ukraine. A feint always seemed unlikely to me because of the quality and quantity of resources Ukraine was using. If this was to merely draw Russian troops away from more critical areas then it would have been more efficient to use the scarce Ukrainian resources in those areas directly.

Anything is possible. Maybe it is an elaborate and expensive ruse. Even so, if I were a Russian general then this is the area I would be most concerned about. Now that Ukraine has tipped their hand with the Patriot system (assuming it was one), my wild guess is things may accelerate rapidly with Ukraine racing to make it safe to bring heavy equipment across the Dnieper and Russia racing to stop them. A few F16s could be extremely handy right about now. It may come down to which side can unleash the most effective surprises. Whatever shot down those three Russian jets was certainly a big surprise.

 

[wdolson]

Georgi also says it was Patriots that shot down the three SU-34's:

TRIPLE STRIKE: Ukraine Downs Russian Bombers - Ukraine War Map Update 22/Dec/2023

TL;DR (of my take): Ukraine has been consistently using their best resources to secure the left bank of the Dnieper.

I am extremely impressed that Ukraine has always been a step or two ahead of Russia on the left bank of the Dnieper in Kherson (with the exception of the Kakhovka Dam flood which made Ukraine evacuate all their island footholds). Ukraine has been consistently committing their good stuff in that region. Early on it was the use of a lot of drones and artillery to keep Russian spotters at bay. More recently they've been a step ahead while maintaining and expanding their footholds/bridgeheads.

Recently Ukraine concentrated on getting rid of Russian artillery in the area. Georgi wondered how Ukraine would neutralize Russia's air supremacy in order to make use of the loss of Russia artillery and get heavy equipment across the Dnieper. If Ukraine has now put many civilian lives at risk by taking a Patriot missile system away from a major city in order to provide air support/cover for their incursions into the left bank then this is really big news.

My perspective has been to look at where Ukraine commits their most valuable resources. For months, the left bank of the Dnieper has been extremely interesting. In the past few weeks reports of Ukrainian successes and Russian failures in the region have grown from a trickle to a flood. It seem to be the only area where we've been getting consistently good news.

If it was a Patriot system that took down those Russian jets then I doubt this is just a feint by Ukraine. A feint always seemed unlikely to me because of the quality and quantity of resources Ukraine was using. If this was to merely draw Russian troops away from more critical areas then it would have been more efficient to use the scarce Ukrainian resources in those areas directly.

Anything is possible. Maybe it is an elaborate and expensive ruse. Even so, if I were a Russian general then this is the area I would be most concerned about. Now that Ukraine has tipped their hand with the Patriot system (assuming it was one), my wild guess is things may accelerate rapidly with Ukraine racing to make it safe to bring heavy equipment across the Dnieper and Russia racing to stop them. A few F16s could be extremely handy right about now. It may come down to which side can unleash the most effective surprises. Whatever shot down those three Russian jets was certainly a big surprise.

I think NASAMS is more likely. Ukraine just got some within the last month
Zelensky: Newly-delivered NASAMS systems enter service in Ukraine

Now would be the likely time a system received in November would be reaching the front lines. The NASAM doesn't have the range of the Patriot, but it is better suited to the anti-aircraft role. The NASAM 3 has a range of 50 Km.

If a NASAM battery was on the right bank of the Dnipro just behind the beachhead the NASAM 3 would be able to reach Novokyivka, well behind the Russian lines.

 

[iPlug]

Lots of talk about static terrestrial frontlines in 2023, but Ukraine continues to clear the Black Sea, and now the Sea of Azov:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738531324288282677

 

[iPlug]

With the year coming to an end, wanted to opine a bit more about the front troop line “static” situation in 2023.

2023 started with Russia having air superiority but is ending with them having near parity. They can no longer use attack helicopters because many were destroyed and those not are at high risk to be shot down. In recent months Russia has been using glide bombs launched from aircraft dozens of miles away, but those expensive aircraft too are getting shot down as we have recently seen. So Russia will likely now use far fewer glide bombs and/or with diminishing accuracy.

Ukraine spent much of 2023 in the attrition of Russian tanks, personnel carriers, artillery systems, UAVs, missiles, anti-aircraft systems, fuel trucks, fuel depots, aircraft, and logistics. As a result, Russia has devolved to their "meat wave" strategy where we consistently see >1000+ daily Russian troop casualties. 2023 started with Ukraine repeatedly going dark from missile strikes, but is ending with the lights staying on and an ever growing missile/drone defense shield.

Meanwhile Ukraine has also been amassing thousands of drones of increasing sophistication we have yet to see unleashed en masse. They are also developing and producing other weapons systems domestically.

The future is uncertain, and U.S. financial/weapons support looks fragile at the moment, but thus far there remains no “stalemate”.

 

[growler23]

With the year coming to an end, wanted to opine a bit more about the front troop line “static” situation in 2023.

2023 started with Russia having air superiority but is ending with them having near parity. They can no longer use attack helicopters because many were destroyed and those not are at high risk to be shot down. In recent months Russia has been using glide bombs launched from aircraft dozens of miles away, but those expensive aircraft too are getting shot down as we have recently seen. So Russia will likely now use far fewer glide bombs and/or with diminishing accuracy.

Ukraine spent much of 2023 in the attrition of Russian tanks, personnel carriers, artillery systems, UAVs, missiles, anti-aircraft systems, fuel trucks, fuel depots, aircraft, and logistics. As a result, Russia has devolved to their "meat wave" strategy where we consistently see >1000+ daily Russian troop casualties. 2023 started with Ukraine repeatedly going dark from missile strikes, but is ending with the lights staying on and an ever growing missile/drone defense shield.

Meanwhile Ukraine has also been amassing thousands of drones of increasing sophistication we have yet to see unleashed en masse. They are also developing and producing other weapons systems domestically.

The future is uncertain, and U.S. financial/weapons support looks fragile at the moment, but thus far there remains no “stalemate”.

The clearing of the Black Sea and the attrition of the Russian armor, plus forcing Russia defend the left bank of the Dnipro are the things I find encouraging. However, I've read and watched some of our solid sources (Hodges et al.) talk about how Ukraine has lost its drone advantage and has lost its recently acquired artillery advantage (actually only parity according to Hodges iirc) thanks largely to the delay of US support. These are my largest concerns.
I'm really hoping the US politicians who are holding up aid... fail less badly soon. Anyone know how the promised artillery support from EU is looking nowadays?