Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

Oh no... The proximity fuse activated too early. Oh well...

Warmate 3.0 targeting Russian Tor air defence system. Tor was trying to shot down an approaching Warmate but failed.


twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1748633642878791943

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748633642878791943

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Let's hope they meet the target this time.

...] The European Union will be able to produce around 1.3 to 1.4 million shells by the end of 2024, and will continue to increase production “significantly” next year, said EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton.

“We need to make sure that most of this is coming to Ukraine, in priority, because this is where there is an urgent need,” Breton said, speaking on Jan. 19 at a press conference during a visit to Estonia. [...

EU Commissioner: Europe to produce around 1.3 to 1.4 million shells by the end of 2024

“We need to make sure that most of this is coming to Ukraine, in priority, because this is where there is an urgent need,” said EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton during a visit to Estonia.

kyivindependent.com

 

[madodel]

What is this creep going to do when his protectors are no longer in power?

American Sex Offender Scott Ritter Illegally Visits Kherson Region to Strengthen Kremlin Propaganda

 

[AudubonB]

Ritter also is guilty of poor grammar.

“The Aivazovsky Museum in the United States is listed as a museum of a Ukrainian mariner, not a Russian one.”

There is no such museum in the US, but all would have been clear were he to have said “in the US, the Aivasovsky Museum is listed as a…..etc.” The museum is in Feodosia, Crimea.

The great artist was Armenian, by the way, and lived his entire life in Crimea.

My mild interest in and collection of maritime art primarily is American; I would be utterly thrilled to have an Aivasovsky to place next to my Winslow Homer…

 

[Tiger]

Palate cleanser:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748634396666810627

 

[iPlug]

With Russia concentrating air defenses near the front lines/Crimea, looks like long range Ukrainian drones are reaching targets tonight:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748877639618535586

 

[Crutonius]

Well this might be the time for some direct action. If you live in the US and especially if your rep is a republicans this would probably be a good time to write them.

Here's what I went with;

Hi xxxxx,

I'm not sure what your position on the war in Ukraine is but I'd like for you, as my representative to strongly support these brave men and women fighting for their freedom.

A little about me. I'm the child of veterans. I work in the defense industry. As such I put a great deal of thought which struggles are righteous and Ukraine is as righteous as it gets.

As you act in my name as my representative I urge you take every effort to advance the cause of Ukraine with your vote.

If we fail to support democracy history will look on all of us very poorly.

thanks
-xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx

 

[EVCollies]

With Russia concentrating air defenses near the front lines/Crimea, looks like long range Ukrainian drones are reaching targets tonight:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748877639618535586

Although I got a D in geography, that region seems a long distance from Ukraine, either their drone tech is expanding or they found a closer launch point within Russia.

 

[iPlug]

Although I got a D in geography, that region seems a long distance from Ukraine, either their drone tech is expanding or they found a closer launch point within Russia.
View attachment 1011031

A closer launching point is plausible as well.

That said, Ukrainian aerial drone technology has been expanding rapidly in the last two years now including growing ranges to quite long distances, increasing payload capacities, and developing increasing EW resistance for such a long strike from Ukrainian territory.

Now that Ukraine has markedly opened the Black Sea in the last year, they also have the option of egress of concealed naval drone cargoes into the Mediterranean and beyond. It doesn’t seem this tactic has been deployed yet, however it appears possible that in the future there could be naval/submarine drone strikes carried out in the Baltic Sea onto port targets in Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg and in any seas against Russian vessels or those of their axis partners (Iran/N. Korea).

 

[DanCar]

Ukraine asks for the A10 Warthog.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-more-attack-aircraft-war-effort-ground-forces-commander-2024-01-12/

If I were Ukraine, I'd be asking for all the nice toys.

 

[Bet TSLA]

A closer launching point is plausible as well.

What's wrong with international waters off of Estonia or Finland? Seems convenient.

 

[iPlug]

What's wrong with international waters off of Estonia or Finland? Seems convenient.

As is an aerial launch from a Ukrainian naval vessel from international waters there? Also seems a plausible and useful tactic.

I still personally suspect it was a long drone strike from Ukrainian territory in this case. Besides Ukraine claiming as much and Russian sources reporting long range Ukrainian drones along that course, Ukraine also struck a Pantsir-S Russian air defense production facility in Tula that night. Could those long range drones have been diversionary? That would be a great play too.

Always some fog of war, so few things are known with a high level of certainty...

 

[wdolson]

Ukraine asks for the A10 Warthog.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-more-attack-aircraft-war-effort-ground-forces-commander-2024-01-12/

If I were Ukraine, I'd be asking for all the nice toys.

A-10s in their original role is pretty much a non-starter in this AD environment. Where they would be useful is in their ability to launch NATO weapons. A large array of western weapons are air launched with a minority being surface launched because of the focus on air power among western militaries, especially the US. The A-10 would basically become an airborne HIMARS launching air only weapons that have been unavailable to the Ukrainians to now.

The A-10 also has an advantage over the F-16 for this role is that they can operate from all sorts of rough airfields that the F-16 is not suited to. The Russians will be working to shut down the airfields the F-16s will be using. It will be much more difficult to shut down the A-10 fields.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

A-10s in their original role is pretty much a non-starter in this AD environment. Where they would be useful is in their ability to launch NATO weapons. A large array of western weapons are air launched with a minority being surface launched because of the focus on air power among western militaries, especially the US. The A-10 would basically become an airborne HIMARS launching air only weapons that have been unavailable to the Ukrainians to now.

The A-10 also has an advantage over the F-16 for this role is that they can operate from all sorts of rough airfields that the F-16 is not suited to. The Russians will be working to shut down the airfields the F-16s will be using. It will be much more difficult to shut down the A-10 fields.

I'm only a layman at this stuff, but it seems to me that the A-10 would be able to everything that the Ukrainians have been using the Su-25 for... but maybe there are more cost effective and efficient ways to accomplish the same thing as those 'dumb' rocket artillery launches that the Su-25 has been performing...

NOTE: The embedded vid below probably contains spoken words in Ukrainian that are NSFW.

There also seems to be other aircraft that ought to be able to do those 'dumb rocket' artillery launches... For example:

Embraer Tucano with derivatives
BAE Systems Hawk
Aermacchi MB-339
Aero L-39 Albatross
Dassault/Dornier Alpha Jet
OV-10 Bronco
Saab 105

Re: F-16:
Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Poland, Singapore and Pakistan all have the F-16 in their respective Air Forces. And they all use road bases. I'm guessing it's as simple as being easy on the throttle when starting the take off roll. By accelerating the aircraft slowly until some certain amount of speed is reached before applying full take off power they can probably almost entirely eliminate the risk of 'ingesting' crap through the air intake. Seems like it should be doable. And by this time UKR has also had plenty of time to prepare X amount of road bases around the country.

And there are also still other aircraft that could compliment the F-16s; aka the Mirage 2000 and the F-18. Sweden are also willing to send the Gripen, but some representative for the Swedish government recently stated that Gripens for UKR requires that Hungary and Turkey first accepts Sweden as a full member of NATO.

Sweden considers Gripen jet supply to Ukraine pending NATO membership

Sweden does not rule out providing Ukraine with Gripen jets, but this decision hinges on Stockholm joining NATO, Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström said during a speech in Davos on Jan. 17.

news.yahoo.com

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

The head of the Polish government, Donald Tusk, arrived in Ukraine on a visit on Monday, January 22.

As noted, Tusk's visit was announced earlier. [...]

Previously, in one of the interviews, Tusk emphasized that both for him and for Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, "the situation in Ukraine and at the front lines is the No. 1 issue for Polish security."

As Ukrinform reported earlier, on January 16, Polish carriers suspended a protest rally at the border with Ukraine, unblocking all crossing checkpoints for Ukrainian trucks.

Poland’s Tusk arrives in Kyiv

The head of the Polish government, Donald Tusk, arrived in Ukraine on a visit on Monday, January 22. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Paywalled:

EU Tackles New $22 Billion Plan to Boost Ukraine Military Aid​

New plan aims to direct billions of euros at joint military procurement for Ukraine​

By Laurence Norman
Jan. 21, 2024 5:20 pm ET

BERLIN—European Union officials will this week start tackling a new plan to unlock tens of billions of dollars in military assistance for Ukraine, seeking to revamp a critical aid program bogged down by internal divisions.

The EU move comes after a number of European countries have increased their bilateral military assistance to Ukraine [...

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/eu-tackles-new-20-billion-plan-to-boost-ukraine-military-aid-79d52b6b

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Seems like quite the sharp decline in Putler the Russian Dictator's missile strikes recently.

Source:

Tracking Russia's losses in Ukraine

 

[Crutonius]

Paywalled:

EU Tackles New $22 Billion Plan to Boost Ukraine Military Aid​

New plan aims to direct billions of euros at joint military procurement for Ukraine​

By Laurence Norman
Jan. 21, 2024 5:20 pm ET

BERLIN—European Union officials will this week start tackling a new plan to unlock tens of billions of dollars in military assistance for Ukraine, seeking to revamp a critical aid program bogged down by internal divisions.

The EU move comes after a number of European countries have increased their bilateral military assistance to Ukraine [...

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/eu-tackles-new-20-billion-plan-to-boost-ukraine-military-aid-79d52b6b

There's something that just occurred to me that's so painfully obvious that I assume there's a reason they aren't doing this.

If the US is being completely dysfunctional at the moment then why doesn't the EU just buy weapons from us and give them to Ukraine? It doesn't look like the EU has any trouble coming up with cash and it's hard to imagine congress going out of their way to block an arms sale.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

There's something that just occurred to me that's so painfully obvious that I assume there's a reason they aren't doing this.

If the US is being completely dysfunctional at the moment then why doesn't the EU just buy weapons from us and give them to Ukraine? It doesn't look like the EU has any trouble coming up with cash and it's hard to imagine congress going out of their way to block an arms sale.

Do we know that EU+UK+Norway isn't doing this?

 

[Crutonius]

A-10s in their original role is pretty much a non-starter in this AD environment. Where they would be useful is in their ability to launch NATO weapons. A large array of western weapons are air launched with a minority being surface launched because of the focus on air power among western militaries, especially the US. The A-10 would basically become an airborne HIMARS launching air only weapons that have been unavailable to the Ukrainians to now.

The A-10 also has an advantage over the F-16 for this role is that they can operate from all sorts of rough airfields that the F-16 is not suited to. The Russians will be working to shut down the airfields the F-16s will be using. It will be much more difficult to shut down the A-10 fields.

This isn't the first time this A-10 thing has come up. I'm not a plane expert but I get the impression that sending A-10s might do more harm than good. These particular planes seem like they're built to operate with air superiority. I'm concerned that Ukraine would lose a lot of pilots flying these things.