SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Germany to send additional Patriot air defense system to Ukraine
Germany will deliver an additional Patriot air defense system to Ukraine immediately. â Ukrinform.
www.ukrinform.net
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
www.ukrinform.net
BitJam
Active Member
The US has had plenty of Nazi/Fascist sympathizers and supporters. Rachel Maddow recently wrote a book about it called Prequel: An American Fight Against Fascism.
Rachel Maddow traces the fight to preserve American democracy back to World War II, when a handful of committed public servants and brave private citizens thwarted far-right plotters trying to steer our nation toward an alliance with the Nazis.
[...] Before and even after our troops had begun fighting abroad in World War II, a clandestine network flooded the country with disinformation aimed at sapping the strength of the U.S. war effort and persuading Americans that our natural alliance was with the Axis, not against it. It was a sophisticated and shockingly well-funded campaign to undermine democratic institutions, promote antisemitism, and destroy citizens’ confidence in their elected leaders, with the ultimate goal of overthrowing the U.S. government and installing authoritarian rule.
[...] While the scheme has been remembered in history—if at all—as the work of fringe players, in reality it involved a large number of some of the country’s most influential elected officials. Their interference in law enforcement efforts against the plot is a dark story of the rule of law bending and then breaking under the weight of political intimidation.
IMO the new problem we face today is social media making billions of dollars by amplifying the voices of no-goodniks.
navguy12
Active Member
Worst case would be early January when the next Congress is seated. There are a number of Republicans who feel strongly about funding Ukraine. We're right around the deadline now for a special election to replace any Congress people who quit. A resignation of a handful of Republicans after the deadline would permanently reduce the Republican caucus in the House until January and could hand the House over to the Democrats.
Currently there are 4 seats open that will be filled with special elections. The first if Kevin McCarthy's seat which is guaranteed Republican hold. Two Republicans won the primary. Then coming in the next couple of months will be one safe Democratic seat in NY, a probably safe Republican seat in Ohio, and the reddest seat in Colorado, Ken Buck's old seat).
Currently the House is 218-213 with one Republican leaving just after the deadline, which will make it 217-213. After the special elections are over, it will probably be 220-214 unless something unexpected happens. It would take either 7 resignations, or a mix of resignations and party switches to hand the House to the Democrats for the rest of the year. I doubt that many would leave like that, but there probably will be some. Ken Buck said there were at least three more preparing to leave when he left.
There is one Congress woman from Indiana who is in a tough primary fight with someone coming at her from the right. She was born in Ukraine and, obviously, is very pro-Ukraine. Her opponent is using that against her claiming "America first". If she loses her primary she will be a lame duck until January with nothing to lose. If she decides to caucus with the Democrats that would make the House 219-215 before sudden retirements. Any other defections would reduce the needed retirements by 2 each defection.
The people who are really running the show in the House rule by terrorizing the rest of their caucus. They threaten to dox any member who doesn't go along and put their families at risk. It's a very mafia-style way of running a legislature. So the Republicans who disagree mostly stay quiet. There is also the allure of post-Congressional jobs. The best jobs require that the Congress person leave under good circumstances with the rest of the caucus. Only a few are willing to go out in a blaze of glory. In the last Congress only Liz Cheney and Adam Kitzinger were willing to stand up to the bullies. Cheney now teaches college in Virginia and appears to be happy there. Kitzinger has become an activist and is still speaking out against those who took over his party. He's also taken up a number of causes like veteran organizations.
The best paying jobs are lobbying, and those will be a dead end if the caucus the person used to belong to is shunning them. (Personally I think paid lobbying should be banned, but I'm not making the laws.)
A flip of the House before the election is possible, but I don't give it great odds.
As for what's happening to Ukraine. Russia has been saving up missile production for several months anticipating Ukraine running low on ammunition for defense. But Russia's production of those missiles is low. They are burning them up now at a rate that exceeds production. This campaign has its limits because of that.
The destruction of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure is terrible and I hate to see it happen, but countries can take a lot of infrastructure damage and keep going. Allied aerial bombardment did significantly more damage to German and Japanese infrastructure than what the Russians can do to Ukraine and they fought on. In the case of Germany until the country was pretty much entirely overrun by the Allied armies. In the case of Japan they assessed that being voluntarily occupied by the US was better than being occupied by the USSR which was beginning to happen.
The Soviets joined the war on August 8, 1945, two days after the destruction of Hiroshima. They quickly overran Korea and did landings on some islands in the Kuriles. The western allies were planning an invasion in November 1945, but large parts of Japan would have been taken by the Soviets by that point.
Between the US being able to wipe cities off the map at will and the Soviets, Japan threw in the towel. Japan was also profoundly isolated at that point. Before the Soviets took Korea, the Japanese were importing coal from the mainland, but with that cut off they had no fuel for anything. To make aviation fuel they were making turpentine from tree roots.
Ukraine's situation is not great without US help, but they are getting aid from Europe. European ammunition production is ramping up and some countries have sourced a fair bit of ammunition from around the world. Ukraine will not be able to go on the offensive this year, but they do have enough to mount a defense.
The Russians are getting cocky and sending in more vehicles on their assaults which the Ukrainians destroy. If you look at the daily loss numbers Russian vehicle losses remain high day after day
Casualties of Russia in Ukraine - official data
To stay in the fight the Russians are refurbishing their old Soviet vehicles that have been parked for decades. Once those depots are empty, the Russians have very little new production. They will have to start converting the refurb facilities to new production, but that will take time and the rate of production of new vehicles is never going to come close to their refurb rate. Russia is throwing those away supporting meat wave assaults.
Russia will likely lose most of their vehicles this year in mostly fruitless assaults on Ukrainian positions. They also are throwing away a generation of men they can't afford to lose. Russia will probably gain some ground, but at huge costs and they will be weakening their army in the process. By next year the Russian army will probably be mostly de-mechanized due to vehicle losses. The quality of their troops will probably be poorer than they are now. They will probably have more sophisticated drones than they have now considering how fast that technology is evolving, but Ukraine will also have better drone tech next year.
If Ukraine does get adequate funding next year, they will be facing a degraded Russian army from what they are facing now. The Ukrainians are fighting this war very intelligently, inflicting maximum losses on the Russians while trying to minimize Ukrainian losses. Being on defense with the current Russian tactics plays into the Ukrainian's hands in this regard.
Whenever a new communication technology comes along, it first causes a golden age of new communication then causes disruption in society for at least a generation. The printing press was introduced in 1440 and it set off a wave of literacy around Europe. But the Reformation started in the early 1500s and lasted a century. The new Protestant movements were able to spread their messages because of the printing press and it probably wouldn't have happened without it.
Telegraphs came along in 1832 and it really took off in the United States which had a growing rail network that covered a vast amount of territory. By the 1850s there were new states on the west coast that needed to communicate with the rest of the country. Then the US civil war came along in the 1860s. The civil war had been festering since the founding of the country and the telegraph wasn't the cause, but it enabled much faster communication along the different forces in different areas and it shaped the war in ways that were not possible before then.
The next big communication invention was the radio, which allowed leaders to talk directly to their followers over a wide area. It was a novelty in WW I, but by the eve of WW II it was a major vector for propaganda. Leaders on both sides of the war used it to great effect. In the US FDR became a personal figure to all Americans with his Fireside Chats. The Nazis and Fascists in Italy used it to spread their propaganda. At the end of the war Japan's emperor was heard by every Japanese for the first time in history when he told his people that the war was over.
TV came along shortly after the war. It had the golden age, but wasn't as destabilizing, though the images on TV from the Vietnam War helped fuel the anti-war effort. It probably didn't have as strong a destabilizing effect because it was an offshoot of radio.
Then in the 90s came the internet. We had a golden age when everything was shiny and new. People were finding others who were like them, sometimes for the first time. No matter how quirky your interests, there was a group out there who shared them. Then first came people looking to make a buck spamming people, and then the manipulators came along. People who are old enough that they grew up before the internet are especially vulnerable to the manipulation, especially older people who don't have a good education.
The people born after about 1980 grew up with this technology. It was either always there or came along when they were young enough to adapt to it fairly easily. I've observed that people who encountered computing before they turned 18 usually have no trouble figuring out at least basic problems, but it's those who never had to use a computer until they were adults who flap around with the basics. I've noticed there is a fuzzy line that starts with people born in the mid-1950s. Those who had to use computers in college are usually pretty proficient with them, but those who didn't or didn't go to college flap around when trying to use them even today.
But mass communication with computers didn't start en masse until the mid-1990s. ARPA-net existed in the 70s and the legislation to make it the public internet came along in the early 1990s, but it didn't really start to take off until operating systems that had the capability built in started coming out in the mid-90s. I got onto the internet within a week of getting Windows 95.
We are living now in a world where people who are younger and grew up with the internet know that anyone could be lying to them and they have built up BS detectors to sniff out trolls and fakes. They tend to be skeptical of all electronic communication unless it's from someone they are sure of. The people who grew up pre-internet are used to some sort of vetting of electronic communication.
The news organizations of the 60s-80s had codes of ethics that required them to attempt to tell the facts. They never got it 100% right, and there was always a bit of spin, but news was very, very rarely just made up. The fact that the old news organizations occasionally got a story wrong was used to great effect by the first wave of fake news people to convince their rubes that the old news organizations were always lying to them. The errors of the old news organizations were much more often due to actual error than any nefarious intent, but the truly nefarious turned that around to convince their audience.
Now there is a population who is perfectly willing to believe that down is up and up is down and foreign actors with even more nefarious intent are using that to manipulate people further.
Coming AI and the ability to create deep fakes is going to take this up even further than where we are now. The tech will be there soon to create deep fakes of public figures saying things that they would never say in a lifetime and it will look 100% real. AI will make it possible to create these videos in a very short time.
The ability of Hamas and their allies to manipulate the younger generations and get around their calluses about internet communication is a new opening in this war of communication that is opening up. The older forms of manipulation don't work with these people, but a large percentage of younger people in the west are pro-Palestine because of the manipulation campaign that has been running for several years on social media.
Yes, I think this is the key point... Russia is gaining ground, but slowly and at high cost.
Ukraine just needs to hang on long enough for US funding to come though, or for Europeans to get organised.
The US could be told fairly bluntly that strikes on Russian oil refineries will continue until they have another viable path to victory. With an election coming up, the Biden admin is worried about inflation and high oil fuel prices impacting on their chances of re-election. By my impression as an outsider is that the right to an abortion is a big issue with a majority of US female voters, and should contribute to Biden winning the next election.
Ukraine doesn't want to prevent a likely Biden win (and IMO a likely a Dem win in both houses), so what is the best approach?
A bit of old fashioned horse-trading is the best approach, Ukraine holds off or slows down on hitting oil refineries in exchange for "something extra" from the Biden camp. I think if they search long and hard enough, they can find that "something extra". The request can be worded very politely, but can also give the Biden camp an indication of how desperate the Ukrainians are.
Biden, the Democrats, and even most Republicans want to help Ukraine. Biden has asked for $60 billion for Ukraine. The current Speaker of the House wants Biden to lose and is doing everything he can to decrease Biden's chances of winning. The best thing Ukraine can do is to hold off on anything that's going to cause fuel prices to go up until the election is over in the US. That will help Biden the most.
Biden's hands are tied with aid to Ukraine as long as the House is sitting on the bill.
I do think the Democrat's chances of winning are improving. The House has a high chance of flipping to Democratic control. The Senate is going to be tough. 1/3 of the Senate comes up every 2 years. This time around the Democrats are defending 22 seats (two are independents who caucus with the Democrats) and the Republicans only 11. There is also a special election for a Republican seat in one state.
All the Republican seats that are up are in states that are pretty safe Republican states. 4 Democratic seats are in states that usually go for Republicans. The Democrats only has a 1 seat majority. Three of the Republican states with Democratic seats up are looking good for the Democrats. The Republican opponents in those races are pretty poor candidates. One of the Democrats seats is a lost cause. The state is too red. There are two Republican seats that have strong Democratic challengers, but those are red states.
The abortion issue will help Democrats. The Republicans are also having a lot of trouble raising money and the party is in disarray. American politics has become the craziest circus in the world.
Having both houses of Congress and the presidency is called the trifecta. There is a decent chance the Democrats will have the trifecta next year, but nothing is certain. If they do, Ukraine will be well funded. There is a chance that Ukraine could get funded with a Republican Senate, but the current Republican leader in the Senate is stepping down and some of the candidates for his job are as bad for Ukraine as Mike Johnson.
OPEC+ is the rate limiting arbiter of oil/gasoline prices, not currently Ukraine's disruption of Russian oil/refineries. OPEC+ as of this quarter has voluntarily cut oil output 2.2 million barrels per day. This is another layer of politics impacting US elections and elsewhere, and the Saudis control much of OPEC cartel. But they probably like prices where they are now so would take a lot to offer them to remove their cuts.
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
They could well be maintaining a certain price to bring back Trump through high inflation. All in podcast just discussed the possibility. They also discussed the doubling of US debt repayments. Debt is $267k per US taxpayer before the loans need to be replaced by loans at the higher rates. How many crises can USA contain before going bankrupt? I'm going to guess at two major ones only.
I would not call the guys who do the All In podcast a reliable source. David Sacks frequently repeats Kremlin talking points.
The inflation rate in the US is generally fairly low and the economy is recovering well. Consumer confidence is a lagging indicator. The prime rate is higher than it's been since 2010, but it was higher than it is now before that. Historically it's been both higher and lower than it is now.
The economy is almost always a major factor in US national elections, but it played a diminished part in the 2022 elections. The economy was worse then than it is now.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
It is better to see Iranian drones and missiles heading south than towards Ukraine if they are heading anywhere at all. Chances are much better of them all being blown out of the sky. Israel's response may further reduce Teheran's ability to support the invader. Iran may need all those weapons for itself.
This is turning into a major crap show on sooooo many fronts.
Buck, $267k per...... Kinda an amazing statistic. I stopped seeing a difference on debt between Rs and Ds years and years ago. The last time I saw meaningful action was when both Clinton and the Newt were severely wounded.
This is turning into a major crap show on sooooo many fronts.
Buck, $267k per...... Kinda an amazing statistic. I stopped seeing a difference on debt between Rs and Ds years and years ago. The last time I saw meaningful action was when both Clinton and the Newt were severely wounded.
I'm starting to wonder if Mike Johnson personally just hates Ukraine or something. Reading in between the lines it seems like he's going to again attempt an Israel only aid bill. Hopefully Biden holds the line and refuses to fund Israel without funding Ukraine.
It has come out that he received campaign contributions from Russians
Konstantin Nikolaev—the Putin ally behind Mike Johnson campaign donation
I don't know how much of a difference taking out Russia's refineries is going to make on the price of oil. Some I assume. I would imagine they would just adjust by selling the unrefined product to the nations that still trade with them.
Debt wise aiding Ukraine really isn't much of an issue. It's not nothing but I think Biden has spent more forgiving student loans.
Additionally I cannot stress enough how much of a bargain it is to support Ukraine or how much of a catastrophe it'll be if they fall. If Ukraine succeeds they'll neutralize one of the most belligerent hostile nations on the planet without losing a single soldier. If Ukraine fails we may well find ourselves in a world war in the next decade or so.
There are still perhaps some things he could do if he was highly motivated:-
1) Dip into the pool of funds that is a contingency for sudden outbreaks of war, that would leave the US exposed if China suddenly invaded Taiwan, or some other unexpected war happened.
2) Investigate the refurbishment and shipping of US excess military stockpiles.
3) In conjunction with the Europeans progress initiatives to use frozen Russian assets to back bonds which finance Ukraine. Russian assets are not confiscated but are permanently locked up until the bond are repaid. Some European governments are keen on variations on this idea, European banks that would need to enforce it are not.
2) & 3) are clearly better options than 1).
2) is relatively painless but is likely to take sometime, IMO some US military staff could even be tasked with refurbishing equipment.
As for 3). the Republicans blocking the bill in the house is an excuse for doing it. Putin is going to absolutely hate it, and that is the best reason of all to do it.
For 1) Republican obstruction is also the excuse and even the threat of 1) might get some Republicans off the fence.
In general there is nothing to stop NATO military staff working on refurbishing and rebuilding and manufacturing equipment for Ukraine. That is the labour content partially taken care of.
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I don’t think he personally hates Ukraine. I think he is working for Trump/Russians.
There are reasons why it is a good idea..
1) Refined products are worth more than unrefined. The amount if refining capacity in the world is limited and new refineries can't easily be built. Some mothballed refineries might be able to be bought back on line.
2) Russia needs to import refined fuels for use in the domestic economy, and the war, and/or stop exports, both are happening.
3) Russia has to at least consider relocating some air defence from the front lines, or other areas, to protect refineries.
4) The direct economic costs of the hit, Drones are cheap compared to the damage they can do.,
5) Impact on the psyche of the Russian public, the war is not just something happening far away from Russia.
it is unlikely that fuel shortage will impact on how efficiently Russia can fight the war. But there is every chance that when the war is prioritized, the availability of fuel for the domestic economy will be limited, and the domestic cost of fuel and associated transport costs increase, feeding into inflation.
What the Russian public experiences is, many young men leaving for a war and not returning, explosions in Russia from Ukrainian drone strikes, shortages of fuel, and general inflation, and a long running war with no end in sight.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
...] Permanent Representative of Israel to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, called on the international community to condemn the Iranian attack on Israel using the words of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the April 14 emergency U.N. Security Council meeting.
"For the past years, Ukrainian civilians have been killed from the skies with Iranian weaponry," Erdan said. "President Zelensky, in condemnation of Iran's attack last night, said, and I quote, 'the sound of Iranian Shahed drones, a tool of terror, is the same in the skies over the Middle East and Europe. This sound must serve as a wake-up call to the free world.' Listen to President Zelensky and wake up." [My u.] [...
kyivindependent.com
"For the past years, Ukrainian civilians have been killed from the skies with Iranian weaponry," Erdan said. "President Zelensky, in condemnation of Iran's attack last night, said, and I quote, 'the sound of Iranian Shahed drones, a tool of terror, is the same in the skies over the Middle East and Europe. This sound must serve as a wake-up call to the free world.' Listen to President Zelensky and wake up." [My u.] [...
Israel's UN Envoy: Listen to President Zelensky and wake up
Permanent Representative of Israel to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, called on the international community to condemn the Iranian attack on Israel using the words of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the April 14 emergency U.N. Security Council meeting.
kyivindependent.com
First charged with Europe's biggest fraud, now it turns out Jan Marsalek sold financial data on millions of EU citizens to Russia and then used the company to bribe and blackmail intelligence officers to work for Russia.
Putin's Perfect Spy
Putin's Perfect Spy
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navguy12
Active Member
From today's Guardian news-feed:
www.theguardian.com
Ukraine war briefing: Chasiv Yar is Russians’ next big objective, says Oleksandr Syrskyi
Capture would give Russians a high-ground advantage for further advance through Donetsk region. What we know on day 782
www.theguardian.com
Wonder if a couple hundred drones (many dummies would do just fine) to saturate the flight path towards Crimean bridge followed/interspersed with a few of these could take the bridge out. Should also work well with many Russian military targets including dual duty infrastructure such as further oil refineries and other petroleum related assets.
