You make some interesting points David. I, however, don't see why someone would play low 60s to high 60s for a used S85 without Autopilot when a new S85 is 74.5K (inventory car with 2k miles) with Autopilot. I don't think a reasonable person would think 35,000 miles is only worth 5K off the price of a new car (that is close to .14 cents per mile). I believe the gas savings alone are estimated to be .10-.14 cents per mile for the car. So you are assuming a person can buy a new Tesla, use the gas savings, and then sell the car for 5k less and have no net loss related to mileage. That seems a stretch. If the mileage was around 15K then I would agree. 35K miles is a lot of miles for a 1 year used car. It is usually 3 years of driving for the average person.
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I would therefore deduct at least 10K for mileage. That would be $55K. My prior value of $51K didn't estimate in the warranty, which I would value at $2K, so my revised estimate would be about $53K. I don't think my number of $53K is that far from yours of $60K. The main difference between the numbers seems to be how to value the deprecation of the mileage. I believe you are considering mileage deprecation to be linear vs exponential in the beginning. I believe deprecation per mile to be very high in the first few years and then fall off in latter years. For example, for the next 35K miles I wouldn't deduct 10K but rather 6K, etc. Thanks for the input.