Karpathy started in Tesla in Jun '17. So, in reality we can say Tesla's FSD program is 2 years old. They have made a lot of progress compared to so many others in the industry.
The other important point to keep in mind is right now is the point they've been working towards ever since they really got their hands around the problem - once they grasped the complexity, they knew they'd need dedicated Neural Net hardware, which they just started getting into cars in April.
So I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll soon be seeing things that are far beyond what they've shown us to date, now that they finally have the hardware they expected to need in place to run the software on.