Seems like FSD is a complete crock

[kavyboy]

This would be a better option:
View attachment 435994
How many people do you think Musk could convince to preorder?
The science is sound, just need regulatory approval.

Fusion Sourced Drivetrain.
Remember, fusion is just a few decades away, and always will be. Self driving is the same, but the timeline is shorter.

 

[tess19]

I wonder if Trump's wall will be feature complete before Elon's FSD

 

[goRt]

I suspect that FSD will take us by surprise and the actual transition to FSD will be murky because of how Tesla rolls out features incrementally over time. And I suspect that folks here won't agree on when AP becomes FSD.

I envision the roll out might look something like this: AP is not FSD now of course. Tesla releases "stopping at red lights and stop signs" but that won't make AP into FSD. Then, maybe Tesla releases "City NOA" and AP can take turns at intersections. At that point, some might start saying that AP is really starting to look like FSD since it can handle traffic lights and intersections on city streets but the majority will dismiss it. AP will require driver attention and will have some cases it can't handle well. So it still won't be FSD. Maybe Tesla implements "emergency vehicle response" where AP can yield and pull over for emergency vehicles. Great but there are still some cases that AP can't handle so folks will say it is still not FSD yet. But eventually, Tesla keeps improving the reliability, adding new features incrementally. And then one day, folks go "wow, AP is really good now and really is driving me everywhere with no issues at all. It is FSD! How did that happen?"

"Some people", let's break FSD down - FULL Self Driving as in the car is fully in control and doesn't rely upon a human's oversight, until that time FSD will not have been delivered.

 

[goRt]

Yes.

But, first, don't take the word FSD literally. Its just like a trade name.

It is more like a driver assistance feature currently. In that sense its good value (compared to competitors).

VW's feature set cost UBP1,100, what's good value about UBP5,800 for something that is no way as smooth as the VW offering?

 

[Saghost]

VW's feature set cost UBP1,100, what's good value about UBP5,800 for something that is no way as smooth as the VW offering?

That question contains an assertion that isn't backed up by any evidence that I've seen.

 

[goRt]

Here is why I think we are still years away from FSD-the many departures from Tesla in the last 18 months. Remember that senior positions hold thousands of shares of stock and Tesla would explode in value if they actually delivered just what Elon has predicted. (As I write this we still await Enhanced summon which he said was weeks away back in November 2018.)

CTO Straubel leaves in 7/2019 (will now be in an advisory role)
CFO Ahuja leaves in 1/2019
GC Maron announced departure 12/2018
VP Engineering Field 8/2018
VP Sales and Service McNeill 2/2018
HR chief Toledano 9/2018
Chief Accounting Officer Morton 9/2018
Head of Digital Product 12/2018
Treasurer and VP Finance Repo 3/2018

Autopilot perception lead Popovic 6/2019
Musk restructures team to reduce Bower's responsibilities and have more report to him 5/2019
Roughly 10% of the Autopilot software team have left in the last few months.

Autopilot is an extremely difficult thing to create in software. We can see from the outside turnover and chaos in the AP team as well as many senior people who would sit in on high level status meetings deciding to leave the company pretty much spells out that Tesla are not close to meeting their goals. I watched Autonomy day and was really impressed by the NN presentations but seeing the churn of the teams since then has been cold water on my expectations.

When I first bought my M3 and started paying attention to the news I thought Elon was just enthusiastic and optimistic about his announcements of what is coming soon with Tesla. But the fact he repeatedly is orders of magnitudes off on his timelines about the same topic (again, take Enhanced Summon as an example) shows that he is not intellectually honest about what Tesla is able to deliver. I can only assume he is in 'fake it until you make it' mode in an attempt to get cash flow through the company. Honestly I am surprised the SEC hasn't done more.

And consider how long do you think the jump to city street AP even with supervision will be in early release? Seems like 6-12 months would be reasonable. I expect a sale on FSD each quarter end until they get to early release to try to generate cash.

To your question, is FSD a complete crock? No, I don't think that is fair. But are the FSD timelines Elon discusses a complete crock? I think the answer to that is sadly, yes.

I've done a lot of software engineering and business turnarounds and there's another way of looking at this - Musk is ignoring what his teams say and making promises that can't be kept, he then attacks the development teams and chops the leadership.
He needs to set the functional requirements, wait for a fully developed plan to appear and then use that end date in his communications, just shouting louder won't make software magically appear.

 

[goRt]

That question contains an assertion that isn't backed up by any evidence that I've seen.

I had a 2017 VW Golf for 20k miles, all Golfs from 2014 onwards have had TACC. I paid GBP1,100 for lane keep assist and rear traffic monitoring which worked perfectly.
My MS even on 24.4 still hesitates going down the road, it brakes when unnecessary for bridges/tarmac surface changes, it does not instil confidence.
The golf could read and display the last 3 road signs.

Musk chose not to continue with Mobile Eye, this is his to own.

 

[SSonnentag]

"Some people", let's break FSD down - FULL Self Driving as in the car is fully in control and doesn't rely upon a human's oversight, until that time FSD will not have been delivered.

B...b...but Elon says we have FSD now! Nevermind it's only FSD for up to 28 seconds at a time, under ideal conditions, on the freeway, without any construction, with well-marked lines..

In that case, there are many cars with FSD: Suraru, VW, Cadillac, Toyota, etc.

 

[boonedocks]

What part of "starting from scratch" don't you understand? Tesla started selling FSD when they had a demo and thought they could do it. but their first approach did not work so they had to start over again. The "2 years" is only counting when they started over with the approach that is working. It is ignoring the earlier attempt at FSD that did not work.

....and you will defend and hold the same position if / when Tesla has to scrap and start form "scratch" again. wow!!!!

In 2016 I saw an "approach that was working" being dipslayed and advertised. That's why I made a purchase and pre-paid for FSD back then and never saw a single feature in 75k+ miles in that car.. SMH SMH SMH

 

[diplomat33]

....and you will defend and hold the same position if / when Tesla has to scrap and start form "scratch" again. wow!!!!

Why would Tesla scrap a perfectly good approach and start over again?

 

[goRt]

Why would Tesla scrap a perfectly good approach and start over again?

My money's on another Musk hissy fit

 

[boonedocks]

Why would Tesla scrap a perfectly good approach and start over again?

Because it wouldn't be the first time...thats a pretty good reason......I'll steal a tag-line that has popped up on the forums that's appropriate

"You must be new around here".

 

[diplomat33]

Because it wouldn't be the first time...thats a pretty good reason......I'll steal a tag-line that has popped up on the forums that's appropriate

"You must be new around here".

HA HA. I registered on this forum 2 years ago, lurked longer than that. I have over 2,000 posts. I am not exactly a newbie.

It is a given that Tesla will continue to release new AP features. And AP will continue to improve. And I do think Tesla will eventually get to FSD, it's just a matter of when not if. So sitting around, always assuming the worst, always assuming that AP will always suck, always assuming Elon will lie, always assuming that Tesla will miss deadlines, always assuming that Tesla will fail, is just a sucky way to look at things. I reject that pessimistic way of living.

 

[goRt]

HA HA. I registered on this forum 2 years ago, lurked longer than that. I have over 2,000 posts. I am not exactly a newbie.

It is a given that Tesla will continue to release new AP features. And AP will continue to improve. And I do think Tesla will eventually get to FSD, it's just a matter of when not if. So sitting around, always assuming the worst, always assuming that AP will always suck, always assuming Elon will lie, always assuming that Tesla will miss deadlines, always assuming that Tesla will fail, is just a sucky way to look at things. I reject that pessimistic way of living.

Some of us will be pleasantly surprised, optimists can only ever be disappointed ;-)

 

[diplomat33]

Some of us will be pleasantly surprised, optimists can only ever be disappointed ;-)

Not true. Optimists tend not to get disappointed very often because they try to find the positive in everything. Sadly pessimists rarely get surprised because they tend to find a reason to still be disappointed even when they should be happy.

Reminds me a story: a dad had two sons, a pessimist and an optimist. The father filled the pessimist's room with the best toys but the pessimist was very sad because the toys did not come with batteries. Then, the father filled the optimist's room with manure. He was aghast to find the optimist playing in the manure, happy as ever. "Why are you so happy?" the father asked. The optimist replied "I just know there is a pony in here somewhere!"

 

[Electroman]

You seem to be the only guy really singing its praises. And you do post very often. Thank you for that. Most everybody else is a lot less positive on it.

I have had nothing but positive experiences with AP. No issues at all.

NoA shows promise, but it doesn't do anything that I can't live without.

I believe we are still a very long way from FSD, if ever.

 

[goRt]

Musk should let owners buy the parts that work - AP/EAP/NoA rather than a poor subset or Full fantasy!

 

[mtndrew1]

I rented a brand new Toyota Sienna two weeks ago for a 1500 mile drive and it had TACC from what I can assume is MobileEye.

It had plenty of phantom braking events, would lose track of the car ahead on curves and hit the accelerator hard, would cancel the system with the faintest little “meep” and nearly rear end people, and couldn’t read traffic signs.

All this nostalgic waxing over competitors’ systems does not match my own experiences. This is a tough nut to crack and personally I’m always grateful to get back to autopilot (FSD does not exist) after being in another car with purportedly similar features.

 

[SSonnentag]

I think there is less incentive to get FSD, or some semblance of it under fair weather conditions, working when Tesla already has the money. It's like prepaying for a construction or remodeling project, there's no incentive for the contractor to get the work done promptly or well.

 

[SSonnentag]

Our 2015 Subaru Outback with the EyeSight system did a phenomenal job with TACC. I can't recall a single incident of phantom braking or improper or unsafe acceleration.

My 2017 Chevrolet Volt, on the other hand, had several phantom braking events in the year that I owned it.