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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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In a new Episode of "i f'ed up and need options-magic to possibly save me":
I did not hedge enough for such a downward pressure thrusday + friday + today.
Options to the rescue:
View attachment 846683
(all numbers for friday)
View attachment 846689
(all numbers for today)

Aim:
1. Downside protection
2. Theta-positive for the time being
3. not a coinflip.

This thing has its peak at 293.33 Friday - so i can ride it & hope that the 300-wall holds. Otherwise my other stuff is up more than this.

It is mainly a hedge for another gap-down tomorrow. Theta is currently +1, but will go to -10 nearing Friday.

It is the best i could find that will hedge without costing me an arm and one leg (opposed to "just buy a ITM put" 😅 ).
if you have time, please show what was the problem and what was the fix/hedge

i don't get how theta moves from +1 to -10

many thanks!
 
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if you have time, please show what was the problem and what was the fix/hedge

i don't get how theta moves from +1 to -10

many thanks!
obligatory
5EFF81C0-488A-43A4-9E1D-D6CFACD6EF2A.gif
 
STO 300 call for this friday @1.53.
I think 300 is pretty safe for this week (big call wall). Will roll if needed, strike little bit too low to get exercised.
Hope to be able to close on thursday in order to STO for 9/09 with slightly better premium (more DTE).

My broker charges 3/contract so always sell 3 more than what I want to earn.
Closing a contract is 3 as well unless it’s lower than 0.10, then they charge 1.5.
PM looks green. Sold a day too early. Didn't think it would rebound hard today.
Seeing a lot of positives about Berlin by several analysts.
 
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Regarding Rob Mauer's doubts regarding the application of the inflation reduction act 2022 to 4680 batteries (cells and/or packs) manufactured by Tesla, this is my interpretation of the Bill.

I believe the following is applicable:

‘‘(4) SALE OF INTEGRATED COMPONENTS.—For purposes of this section, a person shall be treated as having sold an eligible component to an unrelated person if such component is integrated, incorporated, or assembled into another eligible component which is sold to an unrelated person.’’.
(emphasis mine)

The main question Rob points to is: "Does a completed Tesla vehicle fall into the definition of "another eligible component"?".

The section lists the definition of eligible component:

‘‘(c) DEFINITIONS.—For purposes of this section— ‘‘(1) ELIGIBLE COMPONENT.— ‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.—The term ‘eligible component’ means— ‘‘(i) any solar energy component, ‘‘(ii) any wind energy component, ‘‘(iii) any inverter described in subparagraphs (B) through (G) of paragraph (2), ‘‘(iv) any qualifying battery component, and ‘‘(v) any applicable critical mineral.

The meat and potatoes for 4680's is the "(iv) any qualifying battery component".
The Bill defines this as:

‘‘(5) QUALIFYING BATTERY COMPONENT.— ‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.—The term ‘qualifying battery component’ means any of the following: ‘‘(i) Electrode active materials. ‘‘(ii) Battery cells. ‘‘(iii) Battery modules.


The latter seems relevant:

‘‘(iii) BATTERY MODULE.—The term ‘battery module’ means a module— ‘‘(I)(aa) in the case of a module using battery cells, with 2 or more battery cells which are configured electrically, in series or parallel, to create voltage or current, as appropriate, to a specified end use, or ‘‘(bb) with no battery cells, and ‘‘(II) with an aggregate capacity of not less than 7 kilowatt-hours (or, in the case of a module for a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, not less than 1 kilowatt-hour).


To compress this last definition, an eligible battery module is a module that either uses individual cells or not, but has an aggregate capacity of <7kWh.

The structural battery pack could be interpretated as a battery module in the sense of this section of the Bill, if you ask me. This structural battery pack, which just holds the cells in place, is part of the car which is then sold to an unrelated person.

Of course I could be entirely wrong, in which case the reason for the exclusion of in-house-cell-manufacturing-car-makers would be to not let them have double credits. The Bill could aim for a company to either take advantage of the EV tax credit (like Tesla), or the advanced manufacturing goods. (Implying that the EV credit is sufficient subsidy to the car maker to produce cells should they want to).

I don't know if this last makes sense since I haven't compared the dollar amounts a vehicle manufacturer would receive (directly or indirectly) from either the EV credits or the advanced manufacturing section of the Bill. (I know the EV credit goes to the customer, but the manufacturers can increase their prices by this amount pretty much).

I'm sure the Tesla lawyers already have their answer. If not they're on the phone with Congress as we speak.
 
does anyone know if this buy-write strategy makes sense?

big picture:
sell 2 BWs and they are on diff DTE, 1 week apart​
each BW rolls 2 weeks out (for larger credit)​
BW 1)
sell it today 9/2 BW $7 credit (and roll every 2 weeks)
on 9/2 roll to 9/16,​
on 9/16 roll to 9/30,​
etc​

BW 2)
sell it today 9/9 BW $11 credit (and roll every 2 weeks)
on 9/9 roll to 9/23,​
on 9/23 roll to 10/7,​
etc​

therefore, at any given week, only 1 BW is expiring/rolling and that roll is 2 weeks out (for larger credit)

does anyone do this? purpose is to spread out the risk (ie not all eggs in one basket)... it's also more $ since income today will be 7+11=18 (instead of two 9/2 7+7=14)

(edit) also, income every week is 11 instead of 7 (assume static pricing)

ignore realized/unrealized, ignore macro dumps, ignore slower theta on 2), and assume the shares are garbage (ie ok to lose) even if sp suddenly shoots up

TIA!
Sounds good until you remember that if you sell both the CC's weekly you'll get 2x the premiums compared to the fortnightly, which brings in more, 2x 2x 7 = $28

No?
STO 300 call for this friday @1.53.
I think 300 is pretty safe for this week (big call wall). Will roll if needed, strike little bit too low to get exercised.
Hope to be able to close on thursday in order to STO for 9/09 with slightly better premium (more DTE).

My broker charges 3/contract so always sell 3 more than what I want to earn.
Closing a contract is 3 as well unless it’s lower than 0.10, then they charge 1.5.
I have a minimum $19.95 with my broker, then $2.50 per contract, so right now I'm paying $225 to sell 90x CC's, then $225 to buy them back

I usually add 10c to each limit order price to cover these costs

It gets worse though, if I buy/sell shares then there's 0.35% government tax, capped at €1600, and if an option gets exercised the broker charges a 0.3% fee - ergo, if my 90x -cc900's got called away I'd be coughing-up nearly $10k in fees and instant tax deduction
 
As I sit here on a much needed vacation in beautiful Bar Harbor ME, I’ve had time to reflect on my first year of trading options. In short, we’ve lost money. From a number of trades profitable perspective, it’s over 90%, but refusing to take losses killed us. I’ve got two BPS that are eating up a lot of margin that will likely be held through Sept and Jan 2023.

I’ve decided given our situation (my age, my parents and my family needs, and net worths) I’m only going to use options tactically and likely only if Tesla moves above or below what I consider a fair value range.

In my personal account, I’m going to look to reduce my TSLA exposure under 50%. I still think there’s money to be made, but I see other opportunities to compound returns and I want to reduce risk. I stick by my LEAP when price is below $250 and covered calls when above $325 approach. As you guys have mentioned, premiums for sellers are not compensating enough, especially for spread writers and I don’t want that level of risk so I need a different approach. Best of luck to all and happy Labor Day to those of us in the US.
 
Regarding Rob Mauer's doubts regarding the application of the inflation reduction act 2022 to 4680 batteries (cells and/or packs) manufactured by Tesla, this is my interpretation of the Bill.

I believe the following is applicable:

‘‘(4) SALE OF INTEGRATED COMPONENTS.—For purposes of this section, a person shall be treated as having sold an eligible component to an unrelated person if such component is integrated, incorporated, or assembled into another eligible component which is sold to an unrelated person.’’.
(emphasis mine)

The main question Rob points to is: "Does a completed Tesla vehicle fall into the definition of "another eligible component"?".

The section lists the definition of eligible component:

‘‘(c) DEFINITIONS.—For purposes of this section— ‘‘(1) ELIGIBLE COMPONENT.— ‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.—The term ‘eligible component’ means— ‘‘(i) any solar energy component, ‘‘(ii) any wind energy component, ‘‘(iii) any inverter described in subparagraphs (B) through (G) of paragraph (2), ‘‘(iv) any qualifying battery component, and ‘‘(v) any applicable critical mineral.

The meat and potatoes for 4680's is the "(iv) any qualifying battery component".
The Bill defines this as:

‘‘(5) QUALIFYING BATTERY COMPONENT.— ‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.—The term ‘qualifying battery component’ means any of the following: ‘‘(i) Electrode active materials. ‘‘(ii) Battery cells. ‘‘(iii) Battery modules.

The latter seems relevant:

‘‘(iii) BATTERY MODULE.—The term ‘battery module’ means a module— ‘‘(I)(aa) in the case of a module using battery cells, with 2 or more battery cells which are configured electrically, in series or parallel, to create voltage or current, as appropriate, to a specified end use, or ‘‘(bb) with no battery cells, and ‘‘(II) with an aggregate capacity of not less than 7 kilowatt-hours (or, in the case of a module for a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, not less than 1 kilowatt-hour).

To compress this last definition, an eligible battery module is a module that either uses individual cells or not, but has an aggregate capacity of <7kWh.

The structural battery pack could be interpretated as a battery module in the sense of this section of the Bill, if you ask me. This structural battery pack, which just holds the cells in place, is part of the car which is then sold to an unrelated person.

Of course I could be entirely wrong, in which case the reason for the exclusion of in-house-cell-manufacturing-car-makers would be to not let them have double credits. The Bill could aim for a company to either take advantage of the EV tax credit (like Tesla), or the advanced manufacturing goods. (Implying that the EV credit is sufficient subsidy to the car maker to produce cells should they want to).

I don't know if this last makes sense since I haven't compared the dollar amounts a vehicle manufacturer would receive (directly or indirectly) from either the EV credits or the advanced manufacturing section of the Bill. (I know the EV credit goes to the customer, but the manufacturers can increase their prices by this amount pretty much).

I'm sure the Tesla lawyers already have their answer. If not they're on the phone with Congress as we speak.
I'm discussing this in other threads. $10k per Tesla Tax Credit

But, the short version is, there is no opportunity for double dipping since each item (raw material, cell, battery) is only credited once.

Rob is viewing 4) as restrictive and that eligibilty can be lost. I believe it is meant to be permissive and clarify that there need not be a sale at each level to claim the credit. Especially since there are required components of cells and batteries that are not themselves eligible. Also, 4) applies to all the items in the section (solar, inverters, wind turbines), not just batteries.
Taken at the strictest, only eligible sub components of an eligible assembly would be eligible. "a person shall be treated as having sold an eligible component to an unrelated person [only] if such component is integrated, incorporated, or assembled into another eligible component which is sold to an unrelated person.’’.
 
I'm discussing this in other threads. $10k per Tesla Tax Credit

But, the short version is, there is no opportunity for double dipping since each item (raw material, cell, battery) is only credited once.

Rob is viewing 4) as restrictive and that eligibilty can be lost. I believe it is meant to be permissive and clarify that there need not be a sale at each level to claim the credit. Especially since there are required components of cells and batteries that are not themselves eligible. Also, 4) applies to all the items in the section (solar, inverters, wind turbines), not just batteries.
Taken at the strictest, only eligible sub components of an eligible assembly would be eligible. "a person shall be treated as having sold an eligible component to an unrelated person [only] if such component is integrated, incorporated, or assembled into another eligible component which is sold to an unrelated person.’’.
Apologies, I didn't realise I was posting in the options thread.
 
IV has been dropping pretty steadily and so Call/Put premiums having been taking a dive as a result.

1661872584760.png


Basically MM's have had a lot of control over the range of stock movements in this period so it's become very settled and harder to sell well OTM options. A similar thing happened in the second half of last year, actually worse. But at that time we were selling options much closer to the money. (This was easily my most profitable period of selling options.) But now most of us have been once or twice bitten and won't sell close to the money, particulary with the crazy macro environment we're in. So it's just make do with lower premiums while being very cautious and wait for things to turn around, as they usually do.
 
IV has been dropping pretty steadily and so Call/Put premiums having been taking a dive as a result.

View attachment 847008

Basically MM's have had a lot of control over the range of stock movements in this period so it's become very settled and harder to sell well OTM options. A similar thing happened in the second half of last year, actually worse. But at that time we were selling options much closer to the money. (This was easily my most profitable period of selling options.) But now most of us have been once or twice bitten and won't sell close to the money, particulary with the crazy macro environment we're in. So it's just make do with lower premiums while being very cautious and wait for things to turn around, as they usually do.
agree.

i am cooking spaghetti lunch right now but feel the need to add this real quick:

if anyone is thinking of doubling down or going closer to the sun, DON’T. Just don’t.

all it takes is a sudden reversal and you are wiped out.

remember Hertz? no one saw that coming.

options is not a salaried job, do not be tempted to chase regular income.

if conditions are not favourable, walk away and do not risk losing your capital.

things will get better, we just need patience for now.
 
agree.

i am cooking spaghetti lunch right now but feel the need to add this real quick:

if anyone is thinking of doubling down or going closer to the sun, DON’T. Just don’t.

all it takes is a sudden reversal and you are wiped out.

remember Hertz? no one saw that coming.

options is not a salaried job, do not be tempted to chase regular income.

if conditions are not favourable, walk away and do not risk losing your capital.

things will get better, we just need patience for now.

Reading your message just made me close my CCs I sold yesterday for a +50% profit.

I will start selling CCs again after a reversal
 
BTO IC XX 315/325/265/255 .78

Was too early and I could've done better, but I like this risk/reward:

Max return on risk: 8.23% (751% ann.)
Probability of profit: 93.4%
that got me playing around with such things again .. stop it.. :D

But then just this happened to me on a Bear-Call-Spread:
1661876487162.png


Go Home, IBKR.. you are drunk! :D
But i like the idea of TSLA going above $244442688 on friday making this Bear-Spread profitable again :D