Imagine +200/-300 that has the -300 assigned.
1) Sell the shares.
2) 3 legged roll to open new +200/-300:
Sell to close current +200
Buy to open future +200
Sell to Open future -300
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
1) Sell the shares.
2) 3 legged roll to open new +200/-300:
Sell to close current +200
Buy to open future +200
Sell to Open future -300
It depends on when it'll happen. Right now? Catastrophic. In 2024 when TSLA will have a 20 PE if this madness continues? We'll be ok.
Please keep them here. They are very helpful for us option sellers, and I don't need another thread to go read through.If anyone is interested, I created a thread to post my charts and analyses here.
TSLA Technical Analysis & Roadmap
I'd like to start a thread to post technical analyses of TSLA where I have all my charts and rationales in one place. My TA consists of moving averages, patterns, momentum indicators, Elliott Wave, and timing exclusive to Tesla events & news. I look at the chart from a bird-eye view first as...teslamotorsclub.com
I traded with Dan S. again today. It was very interesting that he was looking for a break below 214 or so to go short to 210. But there was a buyer at 215, especially around 1:30, that came in and would buy up shares every time it tried to go lower. He didn't know if the buyer would run out of buying power, but apparently he had more resources than the sellers and eventually won. He could see the order flow coming in and was keeping us updated on it. It was cool to learn - you have to back off if you see a whale trying to do the opposite of what you are doing. I have no idea what this means for tomorrow if the QQQ sells off again.
Haha nice I was on the webinar too. In addition to the levels it helps to just listen to him and mentally be ready for the market.
I'm so happy I took the time to watch a couple of the Fib King videos on Youtube. Really helpful today. I was trying Fibs for the whole day, individual legs down, etc. Amazing how the stock respects them....
EDIT: I'm getting better at predicting a reversal based on the 1 minute and 5 minute RSI for TSLA and the NASDAQ, plus the Fibs. I left $2/share on the table today when I didn't sell shares I had bought on the way up at the opening top. I try to buy or sell shares and then reverse the trade 50 cents to a dollar later. Surprisingly difficult because it will often reverse 20 cents before going in the direction I predicted....
EDIT: I'm getting better at predicting a reversal based on the 1 minute and 5 minute RSI for TSLA and the NASDAQ, plus the Fibs. I left $2/share on the table today when I didn't sell shares I had bought on the way up at the opening top. I try to buy or sell shares and then reverse the trade 50 cents to a dollar later. Surprisingly difficult because it will often reverse 20 cents before going in the direction I predicted....
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I'll drop daily observation here but for the long term roadmap and longer recap I'd rather keep them continuously in once place. Hope it'll help.
I don't think anyone knows, but at some point people will start to notice the elephant in the room that's continually beating consensus, growing 50% per year and printing cash like the FED did the last few years...
For my side I'm not inclined to let go shares down here, well other than the lower priced ones that I'm currently selling calls against, my plan is to keep scraping in small weekly gains and try to keep my nose ahead, regardless
On that front, yesterday rolled this week's 10x -c220's to next, -c230, for +$0.70 - I thought this was a pretty good deal as I get a little more cash and +$10 on the strike. Still have 10x -c220's in play next week too, and as mentioned previously, am OK for one set of 10x to exercise and beef-up my cash-on-hand, sell some puts and take less risk on the call side
Taking quite some discipline for me not to write weekly 100x -cATM for $100k, strong chance they'd expire any given week right now, but would be annoyed if that was the week we got a bear-market rally... get away with that 10 weeks in a row, then you don't care any more...
NOT ADVICE!!
Today seemed to me like short covering on TSLA. There was no news to justify outperformance today, although possibly oversold yesterday. Also ARKK traded similarly to TSLA. If this is true, I expect TSLA to follow the market tomorrow.
But I hope I’m wrong and it was smart money accumulating ahead of great Q4 reports.
Looking forward, I think this was peak hawkishness from the Fed. I don’t think we will have a sustained rally until we see a strongly positive inflation report.
Warning: Breakout coming. I just don’t know when or which direction.
The difference between upper and lower Bollinger bands has compressed to ~11% of SP with this past month’s flat trading. It really can’t compress much more. Historically, that means a breakout is imminent. The last time it was near 11% was July 19th. So be careful out there. I’m expecting a SP rise, but could be completely wrong. This is often a better time to buy options than sell them. I guess that’s why my straddles have done so well the past month. Hmmm, that worries me now that I think about it. Perhaps time to buy a few OTM calls and puts.
The difference between upper and lower Bollinger bands has compressed to ~11% of SP with this past month’s flat trading. It really can’t compress much more. Historically, that means a breakout is imminent. The last time it was near 11% was July 19th. So be careful out there. I’m expecting a SP rise, but could be completely wrong. This is often a better time to buy options than sell them. I guess that’s why my straddles have done so well the past month. Hmmm, that worries me now that I think about it. Perhaps time to buy a few OTM calls and puts.Look at the other EV stocks today, and even Ford. TSLA actually did very poorly in comparison....
Great analysis. I agree that a move is incoming plus we have very clear support and resistance levels? It’s set up very nicely. 200 to the downside and 233 to the upside.Warning: Breakout coming. I just don’t know when or which direction.
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My guess is we continue to stay range bound in the 200-233 area until a major catalyst which could be Q4 P&D. In other words I expect more contraction of the lower and upper BB for the next few months.
Daily recap:
Yesterday I predicted that TSLA would bounce around the 217 area which is along the support trendline running from the 2020 presplit peak. During Wednesday trading hours following Powell's Q&A session, TSLA dipped as low as 215, shedding nearly 6% in one day while SPY only gave up 2.5%.
It's only reasonable to expect this relative weakness to spill onto Thursday. In fact, TSLA opened Thursday as low as 210 before shooting up to 220, closing the day roughly unchanged from the closing price the day before. SPY lost around 1%.
What is the lesson here? TSLA is not weak compared to the general tech index. The stock only displayed relative weakness on Wednesday because it had a mission: to get to 217 as quickly as possible. Having studied TSLA for the last 2 years, this is a unique tendency of TSLA. Once an upside/downside target has been identified, TSLA will get there at a breath-taking pace, displaying temporary but extreme resilience / weakness on the way. Once the target has been reached, its behaviors can change quickly, punishing both bulls and bears who jumped on the bandwagon too late. Today is a prime example. Overzealous bears who thought they got TSLA by the balls were trapped within the first hour of trading @ 210. Joke on them, we're not ready to give up this trendline yet.
It looks like we've completed the first down leg of wave B/2. We should get a bounce into next week mid term election, targeting the 224 area before turning sharply down again to complete wave B/2.
I don't know if this is a B or a 2 yet. B is the second wave in a corrective sequence. 2 is the second wave in an impulsive sequence. Impulses are much more bullish/bearish than corrections. Obviously, we'd prefer this to be a wave 2. The most important criteria for a wave 2 is it cannot terminate beyond the starting point of wave A, which is 198.5. Therefore, 198.5 will be the most important level to watch until the chart shows selling pressure of this wave has been exhausted.
Yesterday I predicted that TSLA would bounce around the 217 area which is along the support trendline running from the 2020 presplit peak. During Wednesday trading hours following Powell's Q&A session, TSLA dipped as low as 215, shedding nearly 6% in one day while SPY only gave up 2.5%.
It's only reasonable to expect this relative weakness to spill onto Thursday. In fact, TSLA opened Thursday as low as 210 before shooting up to 220, closing the day roughly unchanged from the closing price the day before. SPY lost around 1%.
What is the lesson here? TSLA is not weak compared to the general tech index. The stock only displayed relative weakness on Wednesday because it had a mission: to get to 217 as quickly as possible. Having studied TSLA for the last 2 years, this is a unique tendency of TSLA. Once an upside/downside target has been identified, TSLA will get there at a breath-taking pace, displaying temporary but extreme resilience / weakness on the way. Once the target has been reached, its behaviors can change quickly, punishing both bulls and bears who jumped on the bandwagon too late. Today is a prime example. Overzealous bears who thought they got TSLA by the balls were trapped within the first hour of trading @ 210. Joke on them, we're not ready to give up this trendline yet.
It looks like we've completed the first down leg of wave B/2. We should get a bounce into next week mid term election, targeting the 224 area before turning sharply down again to complete wave B/2.
I don't know if this is a B or a 2 yet. B is the second wave in a corrective sequence. 2 is the second wave in an impulsive sequence. Impulses are much more bullish/bearish than corrections. Obviously, we'd prefer this to be a wave 2. The most important criteria for a wave 2 is it cannot terminate beyond the starting point of wave A, which is 198.5. Therefore, 198.5 will be the most important level to watch until the chart shows selling pressure of this wave has been exhausted.
I just want to say thank you to the TA contributions and observations we each write back to this thread. Thanks all for stepping up and sharing the wealth! The gamma exposure charts I post help me visualize what happened the day of and what to think about for the next session. I hope it's not too much clutter ... it's another data point for you to make use of, without the commentary - I have no credibility other than my best interpretation/speculation of how MM operate.
Today was a continuation of yesterday's draw down. Good news I see is the shift wasn't necessarily to the left, rather a much stronger concentration +/- 5 from where we closed yesterday and today. Interest sits at 210-230, yet I'm still feeling 217-223 Friday. Okay, maybe 220. Good luck all Friday.
Today was a continuation of yesterday's draw down. Good news I see is the shift wasn't necessarily to the left, rather a much stronger concentration +/- 5 from where we closed yesterday and today. Interest sits at 210-230, yet I'm still feeling 217-223 Friday. Okay, maybe 220. Good luck all Friday.
Over the last few weeks I've been seeing more and more technical analysis seep into this thread, with all the graphs that go with it, and I'm not sure if it has enough merit. The predictive value doesn't seem very high, if only because some of the predictions are that we could go up or down.
This is an options thread, where we are supposed to talk about calls, puts, premiums, assignment, gamma and theta. But I'm reading about Fibonacci levels, Bollingers Bands, MA and VIX. So the separate thread is a good solution.
This is an options thread, where we are supposed to talk about calls, puts, premiums, assignment, gamma and theta. But I'm reading about Fibonacci levels, Bollingers Bands, MA and VIX. So the separate thread is a good solution.
I've decided to take my loss on all puts that were deep under water, did not yield any premiums when rolling and were constantly being assigned. The loss is about 6% of my gain since 2018.
I want to make a fresh start. I've taken some money off the table (about 25%, which I put in a savings account) and will continue with 3000 shares and 250k cash, starting in earnest with The Wheel. All sold puts and calls will be covered, either by cash or shares. I've already sold 5 p215 11/11 @$7.20 and 10 c235 11/11 @$1.70 yesterday.
May the wheel start turning.
I want to make a fresh start. I've taken some money off the table (about 25%, which I put in a savings account) and will continue with 3000 shares and 250k cash, starting in earnest with The Wheel. All sold puts and calls will be covered, either by cash or shares. I've already sold 5 p215 11/11 @$7.20 and 10 c235 11/11 @$1.70 yesterday.
May the wheel start turning.
With many of us facing Margin calls from our BPSs, whether the SP may continue to go down is extremely relevant. Some of as are also experimenting with day trading stock rather than selling options, hence the Fib levels, etc. It all belongs here as we try to learn from each other and are trying to figure out a "reliable" source of income for retirement. It is the natural evolution of this thread.
My quick thoughts, the TA is good and I like the extra TA, but I realize it can be overridden with macro news (like this mornings unemployment number and most likely this coming Thursday's CPI). Perspective and context.
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