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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
SebastienBonny
Member
There is no way predicting this market.
Looks like all the positives from last week are gone again.
To remember again: don't be doubtful to roll a CC a bit further just to be safe, because you will eventually get an opportunity to roll back (lower) or close for little or no loss. In these market circumstances that is.
Everyone was so bullish last week and we were supposed to go to the moon, including myself
. No one really knows what is going to happen. I read somewhere that in times like this one you actually trade less than you normally would or you will get destroyed. Good luck everyone. I just want this to be over already but it might take a very long time for the trend to reverse. We are down 10% in two days just because. I also have $202.5's they seem safe lol.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Until the jobs market gets worse, the Fed is not going to give an all-clear signal on rates. Wage inflation is the 2nd largest driver of overall inflation (behind energy). The market is going to keep oscillating in a side-ways window until that happens.
Not advice.
Not advice.
Isn't the jobs report also a lagging indicator? All the companies that are around my area have had big layoffs. Lame.
This is holiday season, of course, there are a tons of seasonal jobs, I just wonder why the big tech layoff didn't reflect in the job data last week, maybe they will next month? I think the jobs market will cool down at some ways next month or January.
Btw, I STO -p165 when TSLA is quite oversold in small timeframes, and it is 32% profit now. I'll take it, probably done for the day.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Employment numbers make seasonal adjustments for things like temp holiday jobs, FYI.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
It is a lagging indicator, because people have to file for unemployment benefits or the company they were laid off from has to make a report. So small companies won't show up (few to no reports), and people looking for a job but not filing yet for unemployment benefits won't show up in the statistics.
Labor Participation Rate is also a really big problem - lots of Boomers retired during the pandemic, and have not returned to work. I suspect, sadly, that destroying a large portion of their nest egg saved up in IRAs and 401ks is part of the plan to pressure at least some of them to come back to the work force.
Tech aside, the major issue with "job openings" is almost all in the entry-level jobs (hospitality, food service, etc.). It is going to be a game of chicken to get people to take these positions, it's not until their savings dry up enough that they "have to work" that those will fill.
Alternatively, and I've said this before, we have an "immigration problem" by all accounts. Even being a moderate that believes people should enter a country legally and seek citizenship legally, I would have no problems with something like an "expanded work visa" for people to come here legally and fill those positions. They want the jobs, we have them, and our citizens apparently don't want them. Win win.
JSML
Member
Rolled Dec 9 -c210 to Dec 9 -c192.5.
Now for Dec 9 I have, -c192.5, -c202.5, -c205
My assessment for this week is still flat to down, given the current action, don't believe it can get back to 194.5 by the end of the week. I am trying to be aggressive this week selling calls and back off a bit for next week.
Overall, I still believe the low is in. If TSLA breaks $ 160, I would need to re-strategize my overall portfolio.
Now for Dec 9 I have, -c192.5, -c202.5, -c205
My assessment for this week is still flat to down, given the current action, don't believe it can get back to 194.5 by the end of the week. I am trying to be aggressive this week selling calls and back off a bit for next week.
Overall, I still believe the low is in. If TSLA breaks $ 160, I would need to re-strategize my overall portfolio.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Based on John Snow’s prediction a week or two ago I created a buy order for $175.50. Thanks John, it just executed. I don’t follow this thread too closely, but what’s the latest possible low price target? I’ll try to catch up with John Snow’s posts later today.
177.12 holding supp last 5 weeks (100% fib)
TSLA Weekly:
double-bottom detected today ~175.5
TSLA 5-min:
SebastienBonny
Member
If it bounces back up from here, we can see an inverse head and shoulder and test 200 again. Nothing confirms yet, until we actually have a nice green day.
TSLA - 4h tf
dc_h
Active Member
Off thread, but you can't get a work visa into the US right now. I have highly qualified workers with roles I can't fill here in the US on a 1 year waiting list. Apparently state dept can't hire a few dozen people to process applications. Sucks for my customers here and for the people who could make more money here and for the economy that could grow faster with the right people.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I had not heard that before .... so I searched. Couldn't find it anywhere. Link ?
It looks like big wave 1 has been cut short. Initially I thought since wave 1 of 1 traveled 23 points, the entire big wave 1 should go beyond 215.
However, there was a red flag since the retracement from 189 was very shallow. There are 2 ways to interpret this: either 1) this bull run is very strong and buyers can't wait for a proper retracement to jump in or 2) the retracement and subsequent pick-up to 199 was purely technical. If it's technical, that'd warrant extra caution since the strength of the rally had not been truly tested.
Turns out it's the latter and the rally is being tested now. Since wave 1/A ended at 199, we're currently in wave 2/B which should last till at least Thursday.
Going back to wave 1/A, you can see a clear 3 sub-wave structure which I don't like. I'd much prefer it to yield a 12345 instead. However, the saving grace here is, as I mentioned before, each of the smaller purple run up was very bullish in structure. This is not something we often see in a dead cat bounce. Instead of tapering off halfway through, the second spike was just as strong as the first. I take this signal as mixed. Market is still undecided whether this is a dead cat or the beginning of a new bull run. HOWEVER, this structure shows a lot more promises than the prior 2. Compared to the one in mid June, this rally didn't have nearly as much steam but the structure itself is still better.
If you recall, I mentioned earlier that there was still a risk the developing structure could be a zig zag (corrective).
It turned out to be a zig zag. I'm not gonna lie. I'm taking this as a setback. I said before that we would see 200 before any new low can be made. We got to 199 so now the second part of that sentence is playing out. The zig zag structure puts new lows back on the table.
Though it is a zig zag instead of an an impulsive 5-wave series, it's not totally hopeless yet. Wave 1 can be deceptively weak in front of huge risk events (CPI, FOMC & P&D). The only way I can see us making new lows is if the market tanks hard after CPI and FOMC. as far as this week is concerned, I don't see any lower than 172.5.
However, just because we CAN make new lows doesn't mean it's going to be a disaster. Maybe we'll touch that magic number 160 and reverse. Next week, all bets are off so I'm going to hedge my account even more.
Remember a good P&D and ER can change everything very quickly.
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