because if you do, it'll reverse and the rest of us will thank you for it?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
because if you do, it'll reverse and the rest of us will thank you for it?
i solved this problem by diving into TA support/resistance lines, because algos and high-frequency trading are driving the price action, not retail wish/hope/imagination/prediction/noise
if emotion is removed, then my trading becomes objective and rule-based and data-driven
my problems start when i refuse to stick to the plan; for ex, my 12/16 -c210 is +83%... exit plan says shut it down now and wait for another opportunity, but greed says roll it to -c205 and add contracts
EVNow
Well-Known Member
But it’s not all TA support/resistance levels. They go out of the window on big news.
Essentially at support/resistance levels a larger volume is needed to break-through. When there is news the volumes materialize.
Biggest movements in TSLA have been caused by unpredictable news - Tesla, Musk, China or US macros.
And the most perplexing of all - the Hertz purchase.
not-advice. Hope this makes sense.
I would argue that you're not really looking at rolling (unless you're considering rolling from 210 to 205 for the 12/16 expiration).
Even in that parenthetical case I'd say that's really 2 decisions - realize the profit (1) and open a position (2). You could do them in 1 ticket or 2, but its really 2 decisions.
Now if that were a 210 put and thus ITM, then you'd be looking at a roll decision.
The way I use the terminology - a roll transaction is specific to a losing position (the current position could be winning, while part of a string of rolls that is still losing overall) designed to delay the reckoning and provide the share price to come back and turn that losing position into a winner.
These can be executed via a roll transaction that puts the open and the close onto the same ticket, and provides some benefits in terms of how cash is settled and used.
These can be executed one leg at a time (close the current position, open the new position) - I believe some of us have no choice.
That roll transaction ticket can also be a convenience. The position for the current week is winning and I'd like to establish my new position for next week - roll the current position to next week. In my parlance this is not a roll, even though I'd be using a roll transaction ticket for the convenience. This is 2 different transactions - closing the winner, and also using this moment to open the new position.
For me, the main reason I separate out the terminology is it helps with my decision making. Its also helped my trading by keeping the open and close transactions apart. Good times for a close are almost always also a bad time for an opening, and vice versa.
I was eyeing that one. Didn't execute, but I think that is a great trade.
I'm hoping for good indicators for the remaining days of the week. But, bear market, so you are most likely right.
corduroy
Active Member
I've been buying SQQQ as a hedge. It's nice to have one green stock in my portfolio these days.
12/6: Gave up on last tactic —> sold 300 shares at $180 and bought 4 x 1/17/25c$160 at $74 raising leverage and cash. A better value than selling and buying at higher SP, at least.
Yes. Direct delta profit for the downside unlike option's delta slippage and premium lost from increased volatility. I do the same shorting the e-mini futures which have favorable 1256 60/40 capital gains treatment.
175 gap filledi am also thinking 175 or even 170
there is a "Fair Value Gap" on those levels
View attachment 877532
Fair Value Gap Basics | TrendSpider Blog
If you're a price action trader, you might be familiar with a concept that has been making the rounds lately called the Fair Value Gap. In this article ...trendspider.com
maybe 170 is next
SebastienBonny
Member
Yes. Quite some margin left, but I'd rather not visit sub 170 again.
Another thing to think about is when selling CC's for next week. We have CPI coming so that may move the stock again next week.
Thx. Missed closing it at .33 or even .35, would have been a nice 1 day 72.5 or 70 % ... the day's not over.
EDIT: closed at .30, 75%
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I am selling ATM Puts for next week.
This past couple of weeks I have tried to stay out of things to observe.
Really seems like the seesaw is working well for the Macro's
Hard rally up one week
Sell off the next 2 weeks
I'm thinking that means next week is a nice ripper!
OTOH.... I may be wrong and own shares from $175 P's...
Good luck, we are having fun right???
This past couple of weeks I have tried to stay out of things to observe.
Really seems like the seesaw is working well for the Macro's
Hard rally up one week
Sell off the next 2 weeks
I'm thinking that means next week is a nice ripper!
OTOH.... I may be wrong and own shares from $175 P's...
Good luck, we are having fun right???
that’s what I’m waiting for: 169.69. Big drop through 172.50 just now, so that was a significant resistance level. That was mentioned yesterday on the main thread as a John Snow(???) prediction. Don’t know who that is and couldn’t find it. Edit: I rolled out and down my straddles to $185 Jan23, added an additional CSP with the extra cash. Can hardly believe that I’m selling CCs at that level. Did this in anticipation of moving to a new brokerage and won’t be able to trade for a week or two during the transition.
But that drop was rejected. Nice lower wick suggesting support.
I can’t believe it’s only noon. Lord have mercy
A portion of the breakaway gap was filled. Everything that has happened up till this point was setting up for this test. We're going to see if there's big money waiting inside this gap.
Nothing we haven't seen before... obviously a different story for those on margin and getting close to being called, but otherwise what doesn't kill us, and all that...
I can't imagine any real investors selling at these prices unless forced, just traders, shorty and algos... shorting down here seems very risky to me, a freezing-cold CPI print next week and markets could reverse very fast indeed
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