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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
Time to sell puts? March monthly 140s looking decent at $5
myt-e-s-l-a
Member
Buy 1000 tsla @ 169.50 to cover above, as opposed to rolling it
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Not sure how this will work, but on today’s drop below 170, I just opened a few 2/3 150/155 BPS at $0.50 & $0.60 to go with my 2/10 & 2/17 -c155s. Maybe I can scrape off some premium in the intervening weeks. Edit: oops, forgot about FOMC. Better buyback the -p155s soon.
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john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
Agreed, I was premature. I'm sitting on my hands until Thursday.
Not just looking at Fed Meeting, but also ECB & BOE meetings that are taking place around 7am ET on Thursday. Those will push the narrative further in either direction.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Right, but I definitely thought the same like @OrthoSurg a few times on the fast lane down and the thing is with $TSLA no one can call the bottom, although Chicken and FX Evolution were damn close (from the $300 down already I think) and we just could not believe that. Now that I've felt it all the way, I am more cautious and listen (partly) to all of the experts that were right before,
Today I closed a rolled call with some gain, leaving me with just the shares. Just to make a chance for a "second time around" on much lower SP (I only count on a single one occurring before march 1st) I have put some money aside by selling some shares @ $ 175. So I think we will have a dip (possibly to the at least the last gap-up from 143) and am putting my belief to it, because the recent climb was at a very much more than 45 degree angle, which normally drops back to 45 degrees later on. Lots of buyers alerted now, any good news on wednesday or earlier will urge me to buy back in and then I will buy me some leaps too (for the first time ever). So far I have "earned" 4 dollar per earlier sold share, to put into leaps, which I plan to do at least. (buying leaps for the "prevented loss")
QUESTION: not having bought any LEAPS ever I am very interested in which ones you have chosen/would choose. I would choose a LEAPS that runs ITM soon (And I am a superbull @ these levels), giving me the oppertunity to sell soon at a big gain or be confident and wait for the real grow. My bias is SP $200 before august 1st and $500 in 2025.
So a call june 2025 $200, currently priced about $54, seems reasonable. That will be cheaper in the next dip, if it comes, and can grow easily into +700% much before expiration, especially if after the dip the run-up is steep after march 1 (and especially Q2 I Guess)
Bought call January 2025 160$ & 170& in early January. Now Im looking at the same 200$ call for June 25.
Question is if 2,5 years out is far enough. Still a bit worried for a recession and the fact that Tesla historically has traded sideways for years in the past.
Question is if 2,5 years out is far enough. Still a bit worried for a recession and the fact that Tesla historically has traded sideways for years in the past.
On the 1h+ timeframes, TSLA still hasn't developed any bearish divergence. This tells me that 181 will be tested at least once more. Whether that leads to another high or confirms the top is in around the 180-185 zone remains to be seen, although I'm leaning toward the latter. I'm still selling naked 160p exp 2/3 and will close some Wednesday morning. I think it's a good time to switch to put selling (naked puts for me). TSLA was on nasty downtrend for 5 months (September to January) which ended last week. My read is it won't resume the downtrend anytime soon. The line in the sand is 143 and rising. Below 143, be very very careful. Above 143 we're just testing supports.
Did something fun today -
STO 06/16/2023 $170 CC for $30 each (net $200 a share) if they execute
BTO 06/2025 $200 C Leaps for $55 each (almost 2 to 1)
Sounds fun to me! If we trend down I can close out the June 23' calls or let them go... and still pocket the $17k per contract in June
STO 06/16/2023 $170 CC for $30 each (net $200 a share) if they execute
BTO 06/2025 $200 C Leaps for $55 each (almost 2 to 1)
Sounds fun to me! If we trend down I can close out the June 23' calls or let them go... and still pocket the $17k per contract in June
Trying to decide if I close my 195 and 200cc for Friday with a small loss now (they were a huge loss three days ago). I can’t tell if today is a small breather in the market before recovering tomorrow and ripping end of week after Fed meeting?… I would hate for them to go ITM by Friday. I’m thinking close now, and open something new in a few days if there is a bounce. Thoughts?
SebastienBonny
Member
Exactly the same actually.
One side tells me not to close too early, other side says close it on such down days and reopen on rebound.
But we could have an even more red day tomorrow… difficult.
I’m in a similar position. Thinking of closing some but not all CCs.
myt-e-s-l-a
Member
Pressing my Short further. Rolling 5x 230203P175 to 230210P165 for debit of $2.95
SebastienBonny
Member
Yes, I have 200CC for Friday and the same for 02/24.
There is obviously a lot less value in it for Friday, so maybe I’ll only close that.
Should we go lower, the other can lose some more value.
Did you by any chance hear about my 180 resistance?
While it is true that TSLA can climb a lot more as it did in the past, it needs to do one thing first: retrace at least 50% of the initial spike up. If you go back, it happened every single time. I invite you to go over this post.
The reason for this is deeply rooted in human psychology. It's not manipulation or random occurrences. Wave 1 up from the bottom can be impulsive because it is fear driven:
a. Short sellers fear getting blown up
b. Bottom catchers fear missing out
Smart investors do not want to buy any stock that has just run up 80% in 4 weeks, regardless how low the starting point was. Why? Is it because they don't think TSLA is worth $180? No. They don't buy it here because they don't want to compete against short sellers and bottom catchers in chasing it at this price point. If anything, they want these people to buy every share they're forced to buy before taking their own profit on the stock. When the stock or the economy has some piece of bad news, as bad news tends to happen in a shaky global economy, reality is going to set in and people is going to flip "Tesla is still the same company as it was before the ER and a lot of the initial runup was just short covering", it will retrace deeply as 80% profit in a month is no joke. The stock should retrace at least 50% before deep pocket buyers say ok the price is attractive again. That's wave 2. The retracement is simply a test of strength of the rally.
Wave 3 happens only after the stock has been tested at the bottom of wave 2 and that's when the real fun begins. That's the irrational spike you're probably thinking of. Those were wave 3, not wave 1. We are currently in wave 1. Actually we could already be in wave 2. The question is not if, but when it will retrace deeply.
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gabeincal
Active Member
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