This week was one that I didn't have time to trade. Last night I reviewed the pricing, put in an IC order $10 wide, -p165/-c192.5 1DTE for .50 ... didn't fill, somewhat glad. My luck, it the call side would have needed a roll. Gamma ticked up from even (0.00) Wednesday to (0.12) Thursday. Open Interest (15th to 16th) increased for p177.5, c182.5, 187.5, c190, it's 72K at c200 !!!! I'll have to read through all the comments the past few days to get a feel for next week, whether to open a BPS tomorrow while the premiums are still good 6DTE. GLTA!
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
FWIW I find this summary very helpful. Thank you.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Why - you think SP will go above 192.50 tomorrow ? Barring news seems unlikely.
Seems to me perfectly setup for a ~180 finish near the Max Pain. With resistance at 183.36 and support at 178.04.
BTW, we just need some bad news for below 170. Not a "black swan" event .... we've had 2 events that can be called black swan in the last few years. Covid and Elon buying the bird site. Rest is just normal news ...
BTW, SPY max pain is now 196. Exactly where SPY ended today at. So, I expect flattish markets tomorrow.
ps :
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@EVNow , @Jim Holder , I wasn't implying we will close above 192.50 Given my personal lack of time to develop a pulse for where we sit this week... it was okay the order didn't fill. I typically try to stay outside the low and high gamma bars. The order I placed, I honestly felt I was flying close to the sun , entered a FOMO trade that I didn't need to risk, even thought the IC would have probably expired based on what you each shared... thanks for that. Positive gamma shifts usually result in price uptick, but like all other indicators, that read too has faults. Other than standing above most all other strikes, the 72K OI at C200 is also meaningless.
I’ve learned—and continue to learn—so much from all of you here, and most importantly was comforted during the dark TSLA tunnel we recently went through the past few months going through it together and helping each other out as best we could. Happy to add what I can ;-)
Actually, after sleeping on it, I think shares are the way to go, going to flip the calls to shares when the markets open. Much more relaxing selling calls against sharesI like this gamble! Gonna copy it! But going for shares instead of LEAPs, since CS pays a dividend, so might as well collect some while selling cc's.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
"Too big to fail" doesn't protect share holders. SVB share holders lost everything - only depositors and creditors are protected. Don't know how it will play out for CS ...
Sure, but it's just beer-money I have in play on this... and I'm pretty sure the Suisse government will keep it afloat
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
In case of CS, Switzerland is at the steering wheel, not any US authority. Swiss bank says to back CS, but not how, so it could go bankrupt too, but the mess that would leave behind wil urge Swiss authorities not to go that direction too soon.
Came into today holding 15x -c180 & 15x -c185, and looking to sell -p175's -> after yesterday and then the opening price moves I was expecting to have to roll, so when the price started to get pushed down I tool my opportunity to get out of the calls for a decent profit, but as it turned out way to early and I left a lot of money on the table
Really surprised, I thought 180 had been abandoned, maybe it has and this is just a head-fake trying to get the c180's to sell off?
Anyway, a good week and I also STO 20x -p175 for next week. I'l waiting to see what the FED do before selling any calls, P&D isn't far away too, so being cautious
Really surprised, I thought 180 had been abandoned, maybe it has and this is just a head-fake trying to get the c180's to sell off?
Anyway, a good week and I also STO 20x -p175 for next week. I'l waiting to see what the FED do before selling any calls, P&D isn't far away too, so being cautious
We know how much beer you drink... That's a lot of money!
Opened a 3/24 -167.5/+162.5 BPS for 1.00 at the dip. Will pair this with -197.5/+202.5 BCS order I placed for the same 1.00 , but doubt that will hit today... maybe.
This week’s learning confirmation on short Iron Condors:
1) Don’t bother opening until Wednesday (2DTE). I have ICs that have been rolled out to protect/save one side or the other. Decay is more rapid for the OTM +side, than the -side, because of the distance from ATM. Overall value decay really only happens in the expiration week, and a small bit in the week before. Farther out dates (>2wk) just sit there and the smaller decay doesn’t improve value to the seller.
2) Monday/Tuesday is a bit too volatile to set an IC (yes, if good and/or lucky one might time setting the BPS and BCS sides for more premium, but that’s just not my style
).
3) Don’t expect to be able to easily close the winning side on Friday, then roll the losing side. This is a method that I have used in the past to eliminate the need for double margin/backing. Unfortunately, today I’m not able to get the -190c/+200c side to close, even at bid (only $0.01) because so it’s far away and no trading volume. It’s worse for non-integer strikes -192.50c/+202.50c, chosen as a roll to avoid previously traded strikes.
3) Finally, unless you want to babysit to the close, keep the short legs at least $10 away from Friday close. I have -p175s which are still in play and refuse to decay. I’m sure the SP will close just slightly below $180, probably above $177.50, so I’m not worried, but babysitting is boring. As described above, the -c190s decayed to $0.01, but I can’t get them to close. I now have a $0.05 order to close the entire IC, so hopefully it happens before 4pm (don’t want to risk some crazy moves AH).
In other trading, with this week’s profits, bought back another Jan25 -c230 near today’s 178 low. Will wait to resell a shorter duration CC. Yesterday filled out another lot at $177.xx, then immediately sold -c185 at $1.65, so a pseudo buy-write. Will expire today, so plan to write a -c190 on Monday. I’m fairly happy with this week’s results and my cash buffer. Definitely hedging my trades in both directions, short- and longer-terms. I still worry about filling the 1/25/23 $140-$150 gap, so keeping almost all my shares matched with CCs. As always, GLTA.
1) Don’t bother opening until Wednesday (2DTE). I have ICs that have been rolled out to protect/save one side or the other. Decay is more rapid for the OTM +side, than the -side, because of the distance from ATM. Overall value decay really only happens in the expiration week, and a small bit in the week before. Farther out dates (>2wk) just sit there and the smaller decay doesn’t improve value to the seller.
2) Monday/Tuesday is a bit too volatile to set an IC (yes, if good and/or lucky one might time setting the BPS and BCS sides for more premium, but that’s just not my style
).3) Don’t expect to be able to easily close the winning side on Friday, then roll the losing side. This is a method that I have used in the past to eliminate the need for double margin/backing. Unfortunately, today I’m not able to get the -190c/+200c side to close, even at bid (only $0.01) because so it’s far away and no trading volume. It’s worse for non-integer strikes -192.50c/+202.50c, chosen as a roll to avoid previously traded strikes.
3) Finally, unless you want to babysit to the close, keep the short legs at least $10 away from Friday close. I have -p175s which are still in play and refuse to decay. I’m sure the SP will close just slightly below $180, probably above $177.50, so I’m not worried, but babysitting is boring. As described above, the -c190s decayed to $0.01, but I can’t get them to close. I now have a $0.05 order to close the entire IC, so hopefully it happens before 4pm (don’t want to risk some crazy moves AH).
In other trading, with this week’s profits, bought back another Jan25 -c230 near today’s 178 low. Will wait to resell a shorter duration CC. Yesterday filled out another lot at $177.xx, then immediately sold -c185 at $1.65, so a pseudo buy-write. Will expire today, so plan to write a -c190 on Monday. I’m fairly happy with this week’s results and my cash buffer. Definitely hedging my trades in both directions, short- and longer-terms. I still worry about filling the 1/25/23 $140-$150 gap, so keeping almost all my shares matched with CCs. As always, GLTA.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You can always buy back the short side for 0.01. Long side doesn't matter if you don't close - since they don't add to your margin. That is what I've been doing.
Yes, the decay is greatest in the final week. You can make out that by looking at the difference in theta between the short/long strikes at any point.
Interestingly spreads are also not affected much by IV.
Prophetic! Shaping up exactly like that ;- )
Yet another attempt at 180.50... TBH I do expect a close above 180 now, they've spent all day clearing out the c180's, now they can close above and wipe out all the puts
gabeincal
Active Member
SebastienBonny
Member
I'm staying out of calls until after FOMC... I don't fear going ITM on puts, the SP will come back, but I do worry about DITM calls
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