Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

TLDW: If TSLA opens over $198.73 then $206.59 is in reach same day, and a close above that opens up $221 by Friday.

A close over $221 brings $238 where it can tap out and turn down. A close above $238 can mark a new bottom for 2023 and up from there.

For downside, an open below $198.63 brings $191.85 which brings $182 and if that gives, then $174.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Must be hard for CGS and Mauro who were not long yet on TSLA to decide on an entry point at this point….

 

[Max Plaid]

As I view myself as a terrible trader, it's interesting to discuss WHEN to roll in a situation like his. IV plays such a large part. I assume he sold the 207.50's as there is not a 207C. If he waits until Friday the gamble is where does the Fed take us. Even on good news can we go above his strike by EOD Friday? We are around 63% IV for his call and they at .77 cents as this time with a SP of 194.33. IV could easily jump up another 10-20% the next few days, inflating his loss. Panic roll only to watch the IV drop by EOD Friday and his position to close OTM. Do you hold your breath and wait for EOD Friday?

Depends how close to the money they are - ATM then it's better to roll sooner rather than later, but once they go dITM then I prefer to wait until all the extrinsic has washed out

I'll also open some straddles when I see a potential losing position - for example this week on Monday I impulse-sold 20x -c187.50's, honestly looking at the open-interest, combined with the banking mess and the upcoming FOMC fear, I thought they were a good bet, but there you go! As I'd already closed-out this week's puts, I sold 20x -p190 yesterday evening for $2.1 to mitigate things a bit

In any case, it's only 20x calls, they're unlikely to go DITM, strong chance I can close out the week break-eve, or with profits, plan B is to roll them to July -c250's, where I already have some straddles

 

[Max Plaid]

Not being able to roll in one transaction would certainly be a reason for me to switch to another broker. I once lost 15k chasing the stock during a roll, which prompted me to move to Lynx (Interactive Brokers), which has a great roll function in their mobile app.

Yeah, I've thought about it many times... question - where are IBKR based, do they have a local branch for each country or a central EU "bank"?

 

[rikkert]

Yeah, I've thought about it many times... question - where are IBKR based, do they have a local branch for each country or a central EU "bank"?

For European customers they have "branches" in Luxembourg and Ireland

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Yeah, I've thought about it many times... question - where are IBKR based, do they have a local branch for each country or a central EU "bank"?

Lynx in The Netherlands, a subsidiary of IBKR, are officialy located in Ireland. Lynx is also available in Belgium. They have a very good helpdesk.

 

[SebastienBonny]

200 seems difficult to hold premarket, but we could blow past it in regular trading.
FOMC today as well, that might bring us even higher.

 

[BornToFly]

Since you are own counter indicator.....
That will cement a close over $215....

I am personally going to be out of an short term devices by tomorrow close.

You're welcome. Only 5% away from my 210 CCs going ITM now. (We were under 180 Monday morning). If the Fed pauses rate hikes today, my CCs are going to get smoked. Unbelievable....

To make matters worse, I'm having to help a colleague with a surgery tomorrow (for which I get paid almost nothing), so I won't be able to watch my account at all.

 

[SebastienBonny]

You're welcome. Only 5% away from my 210 CCs going ITM now. (We were under 180 Monday morning). If the Fed pauses rate hikes today, my CCs are going to get smoked. Unbelievable....

To make matters worse, I'm having to help a colleague with a surgery tomorrow (for which I get paid almost nothing), so I won't be able to watch my account at all.

Looks like you're having first world problems over there...
Maybe a pause is already sort of priced in and we go down again when they don't announce it...

 

[UltradoomY]

You're welcome. Only 5% away from my 210 CCs going ITM now. (We were under 180 Monday morning). If the Fed pauses rate hikes today, my CCs are going to get smoked. Unbelievable....

To make matters worse, I'm having to help a colleague with a surgery tomorrow (for which I get paid almost nothing), so I won't be able to watch my account at all.

Dang it!

Couple of thoughts - there is always movement between the announcement of the hike (or no hike) and the press conference.
If we see the 0.25% hike market will bounce (no idea which way - which is why I'm out)

And then when the presser starts is when we get real movement - usually down, it's like JPow has a ticker on the teleprompter and if it goes green he turns into a blood thirsty Hawk.

I would imagine this will be the same today.
Thinking about grabbing some OTM bought Puts (something for less than a $1) right before 2pm to play it if he wants more blood.

Also @BornToFly (not advice) if I was you I would wait till Friday to roll if needed, still lot's of Theta in those $210's and probably we get a close between $200- $207 but run over first, and then profit taking Friday.

 

[Max Plaid]

For European customers they have "branches" in Luxembourg and Ireland

Lynx in The Netherlands, a subsidiary of IBKR, are officialy located in Ireland. Lynx is also available in Belgium. They have a very good helpdesk.

And this is the problem - Belgium tax authorities don't like accounts outside of Belgium, even those in the EU, and although I do everything correct in term of my tax affairs, it can lead to overbearing scrutiny. My current broker is a Belgian bank with bricks-and-mortar premises, so although they're not perhaps the best, they are probably the easiest...

Furthermore, IBKR have margin available, right? That would be my undoing

 

[BornToFly]

Dang it!

Couple of thoughts - there is always movement between the announcement of the hike (or no hike) and the press conference.
If we see the 0.25% hike market will bounce (no idea which way - which is why I'm out)

And then when the presser starts is when we get real movement - usually down, it's like JPow has a ticker on the teleprompter and if it goes green he turns into a blood thirsty Hawk.

I would imagine this will be the same today.
Thinking about grabbing some OTM bought Puts (something for less than a $1) right before 2pm to play it if he wants more blood.

Also @BornToFly (not advice) if I was you I would wait till Friday to roll if needed, still lot's of Theta in those $210's and probably we get a close between $200- $207 but run over first, and then profit taking Friday.

Yeah, I really don't want to roll to next week. I expect next week to be a climb into P&D because of all the record delivery reports. In the ideal world, my 210s expire worthless Friday, and then next week I can open 240s or 250s.

 

[BornToFly]

So far 200 was defended. MAxPain shows a big call wall at 200 for Friday (although it won't matter if the market rallies).

 

[intelligator]

Call and Put OI differences today from Tuesday show a strong put interest shift at 190 along with a reduction of call interest at the same strike. Half that for call interest increase at 200 and 205.

 

[OrthoSurg]

You're welcome. Only 5% away from my 210 CCs going ITM now. (We were under 180 Monday morning). If the Fed pauses rate hikes today, my CCs are going to get smoked. Unbelievable....

To make matters worse, I'm having to help a colleague with a surgery tomorrow (for which I get paid almost nothing), so I won't be able to watch my account at all.

Haha
One of my colleague asked me to show how to do Shoulder replacement Friday in 2 weeks so I know the pain from assisting and getting paid nothing while you would be making trades bringing 10/100x more income. However I tell myself I am more useful teaching someone something useful than myself making money doing nothing concrete.

If we truly reach 210 I roll my CCs back in.

 

[dl003]

You're welcome. Only 5% away from my 210 CCs going ITM now. (We were under 180 Monday morning). If the Fed pauses rate hikes today, my CCs are going to get smoked. Unbelievable....

To make matters worse, I'm having to help a colleague with a surgery tomorrow (for which I get paid almost nothing), so I won't be able to watch my account at all.

You should roll to next week now if feeling uneasy.
Possible doesn't mean likely. Powell won't pause today or risk making a clown out of himself. At best he'll hint at major risks within the banking system and say the Fed will be monitoring the situation.
Thoughts like this are what get us in trouble. Too bullish.

 

[OptionsGrinder]

For anyone here who misses Yoona, you can follow on Twitter @lastadam. Still posting good stuff.. TMC's loss is Twitter's gain

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Powell has lately had a habit of tanking the market, so I'm getting out of the way for now.

BTC 10 x -p190 3/24 at $2.10 (could have gotten a better price most of the day, but so be it). I had been rolling these puts for several weeks now, receiving a total of $9.78 in premium. But at one point they were $25 ITM, so all in all I'm not unhappy.

I'll let the 10 x -p165 3/24 expire.

 

[dl003]

The early January script is still playing out. According to this schedule we should hit 187 tomorrow before reversing for P&D.

 

[Jim Holder]

The early January script is still playing out. According to this schedule we should hit 187 tomorrow before reversing for P&D.

View attachment 920146

That’s great! This means one could consider STO -P180 tomorrow at lows for 8/24 (or 3/31) quite safely, no?