Another risk is I get greedy and try to time the second transaction for more credit.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Another risk is I get greedy and try to time the second transaction for more credit.
Not being able to roll in one transaction would certainly be a reason for me to switch to another broker. I once lost 15k chasing the stock during a roll, which prompted me to move to Lynx (Interactive Brokers), which has a great roll function in their mobile app.
I've been pretty happy since moving to IBKR a couple years back.
As I view myself as a terrible trader, it's interesting to discuss WHEN to roll in a situation like his. IV plays such a large part. I assume he sold the 207.50's as there is not a 207C. If he waits until Friday the gamble is where does the Fed take us. Even on good news can we go above his strike by EOD Friday? We are around 63% IV for his call and they at .77 cents as this time with a SP of 194.33. IV could easily jump up another 10-20% the next few days, inflating his loss. Panic roll only to watch the IV drop by EOD Friday and his position to close OTM. Do you hold your breath and wait for EOD Friday?
Opened -202.5/+207.5 BCS @ .65 when SP was at 192 or so for Friday. Now looking to move down 4/6 BPS to 4/14 , improving by $5 for a small credit.
What's the gut feel for this momentum to stick? Should I be concerned with the 4/6 190CC? I can move to 4/14 and beyond but would rather have the 5 expire.
Will WS will be upset over 7000 cars? Troy's estimates have been on the high side the last two times. I wonder how many car over consensus do we need to moon.
I have been selling $212.5 cc's
I have been selling $212.5 cc's
Today's bullish price action invalidated the bearish divergence developing yesterday, which means 176 was the very short term low. We are now either in the topping process for the corrective wave B of the correction or we are already starting big wave 3 going up. Correction here = down from 217 so corrective wave B = up. Wave 1 = 102 -> 217 so wave 3 will make new highs. Either we are going to make higher lows and higher highs from here until we reach 250+ or we are going to get rejected at 200 and go down to 146. I'm pretty certain we will see 200 - 205 as the RSI just made new highs on the hourly timeframe. Whenever this happens, it means there is more room to go up. But that's only the very short term picture. Longer term, aka after P&D is a mystery. However, I'm still leaning toward we'll go down, purely going off the chart. Again, this is only because TSLA is not going up on its own but is piggybacking off a relief rally in SPY. Price action prior to today still looked corrective to me.
The credit upgrade certainly changed the short term picture a little bit, creating more tailwinds for the bulls pre- P&D. This rally/bounce from 164 looks a lot like the rally from 102. The way it can play out is we pop tomorrow to 200-205 before selling off to 187, testing today's opening gap. If 187 holds and we close the day without filling the entire gap, then I can say with a lot more certainty 164 was the end of the correction.
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I might change my mind tomorrow but improving China numbers lead me to think people will be buying the rumor for delivery numbers and there are only 8 trading days left.
I have a 180cc that I do want to exercise, but now I want it to be at a higher strike. Considering splitting it or maybe just selling an OTM CC and using the proceeds to bring it up to 185 or so.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Beware! MSM praising Tesla, so the shorts are out of the way and are financing a favouring campaign in the media (on the Moody-waves) letting the stock run for another bit, I think until P&D, maybe even waiting out ER Q1. 217 or 233 can be technical stops for them to go shorting again.
But I am totally bullish now (in portfolio almost) , happy to have rolled from -C to -P mostly and thinking about selling a few stocks to halve my - c200 for this week.
[Edit @dl003 's posting was not seen before posting the above, but we do not agree /Edit]
But I am totally bullish now (in portfolio almost) , happy to have rolled from -C to -P mostly and thinking about selling a few stocks to halve my - c200 for this week.
[Edit @dl003 's posting was not seen before posting the above, but we do not agree /Edit]
Split the 180cc -> 190cc + 195cc + -p190 all for Friday. If we finish 190+ this week, will let the 190cc exercise and roll the 195.
short term I'm very heavy on naked short puts (-192.5P next week). Will close tomorrow when we gap up. My CCs are all the way up at 230. Will make fast decisions tomorrow at 187-190.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
(I see March 2 until yesterday as an Island reversal on the hourly (not a gap) too)
for me I saw the bounce running out of steam too early. However, since I gave 164 a (relatively low) chance of being the bottom, my CC plays have been pretty light.
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a. A reasonable retracement often lands somewhere at the 0.5 fib retracement. For TSLA, that level is 160. We bottomed out above it (164) - shallow in my book.
b. We did briefly break both major supports here. Bottomed out $7 below my target. Considering the market has been going through a banking crisis, it's still pretty good.
c. The consolidation range is 217-164. Mid point of this range is 190.5. We are currently trading above it and I hope it remains so till the end of the month.
Options volume (where contracts > 500) , taken about 10:30a today
Options volume (where contracts > 500) , taken about 2:30p today
Call to Put is 2.4:1 , we are -2.25 from 200
Options volume (where contracts > 500) , taken about 2:30p today
Call to Put is 2.4:1 , we are -2.25 from 200
If we gap up tomorrow as you wrote, you won’t be able to make fast decisions at 187-190. Is that a typo?
I'm expecting profit taking from 200-205 back down to 187-190 tomorrow.
Oh, alright.
Seems makes sense then to get commons overnight for the gap up and sell at 200-205.
The reason I'm expecting it is because calls are very expensive right now, which is expected on a 9% up day. However, because calls are too expensive, buyers will take profit at some point, once FOMC is out of the way and there is no more unknown, and negative gamma is going to take care of the rest.
@GrmMastrDoobie regarding rolling: it can save you or compound the losses (if the SP keeps going and going). Rolling out one week buys you more time (and maybe $5+/-$5 strike, depending on how far away the SP is from the strike). Unfortunately, if the SP runs faster than $5-$10/wk (as we know this can happen in a single day like today), then rolling just means your strike can be farther below the SP than before. FWIW, with the Moody’s upgrade, I decided to close all my spreads (ICs) for small profits, buyback as many CCs as possible, and roll the remaining CCs out to Jan2025 $450s for credit. I did NOT want to do this, but don’t have the confidence to manage CCs in a rapidly rising SP environment (eg returning to $400 in 2023). This will definitely reduce my returns, but at least the strike is double my cost basis, so I am locking in a minimum guarantee. Also, FWIW, I have 2+ years of options experience, so understand and can implement many of the techniques described here.
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