Did you mean lackluster? I have been selling next week's 180$ calls on strength. Reason is the stock is weak on a day even when uptick rule/SSR is in place. Will close if TSLA closes strong.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Did you mean lackluster? I have been selling next week's 180$ calls on strength. Reason is the stock is weak on a day even when uptick rule/SSR is in place. Will close if TSLA closes strong.
I think "shite" is what he meant
Macro is not great - looks like the bears shifted to pushing AAPL down today instead
I'm looking to sell 40x -c170's for next week, but looks like the manipulators want it around 162.50, my plan B is to shift to 20x -c160 as a small downside hedge
I have to admit that I'm on the edge of considering going aggressive with some core shares so I can sell more puts and get a better buy-in, it's hard to see a meaningful recovery until CT comes along. Even a Q2 P&D of 500k would not change anything because WS would be saying that half a million cars with no profit is the same as 0 cars with no profit
With this drop, my put side problems resurfaced. Both lots are Jan '25 expiry ... a 6x -p280 (CSP) that has about $7 left and a 10x -p240/+p180 spread with about $13 extrinsic. They were rolls to safety which has proved now to be more unsafe than ever.
Eating these wouldn't be pleasant, or would be to take assignment at those strikes. Any creative thoughts, I'm all ears.
Eating these wouldn't be pleasant, or would be to take assignment at those strikes. Any creative thoughts, I'm all ears.
I wish they would walk back that “willing to sell at no profit” blather, why send those messages before the volumes are just about actual? One thing that might move SP before CT is a strong 2nd quarter GM without all those ”one time” effects, but how likely is that, otherwise it will be a long wait for meaningful CT volumes. Potential for aggressive short-term plays being very good the rest of the year, for the brave.I think "shite" is what he meant
Macro is not great - looks like the bears shifted to pushing AAPL down today instead
I'm looking to sell 40x -c170's for next week, but looks like the manipulators want it around 162.50, my plan B is to shift to 20x -c160 as a small downside hedge
I have to admit that I'm on the edge of considering going aggressive with some core shares so I can sell more puts and get a better buy-in, it's hard to see a meaningful recovery until CT comes along. Even a Q2 P&D of 500k would not change anything because WS would be saying that half a million cars with no profit is the same as 0 cars with no profit
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
We landed two times in two days exactly on the 50% fib retracement, which makes me think, closing the 160 (plus a bit) gap and this fib sure could have been it, for now at least and first we get a bounce, before macro etc gets hold of it again (more than today's bounce, I would guess)
brown lines are the fibs on the run up.
brown lines are the fibs on the run up.
SebastienBonny
Member
I have a 260 put for June 25 and if it ever gets executed I’ll sell the shares and split the put into two with lower strike.
You already have 6 280’s so I guess you could go to 12 200’s if you have the margin.
Yes, that’s what I meant. Sorry, English is not my forte.
I still expect a second leg down. Half of this forum has given up on the stock for 2023, so that sentiment likely also dominates in the broader market. Today the SP is holding up well, but that looks more like a technical bounce plus the uptick rule and MM’s aiming for 165.
In light of the downward risk which I see I feel the put premiums for next week are too low. So I’ll probably wait for a drop before I sell puts again.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Closed 165 puts for a small profit. Didn't want to risk waiting till later for full theta decay.
May be 165 is the new 185
The thing with being stuck at 185 is that .... if the SP was at 210 before ER - we'd have come down to 190 .... instead now we are now at 165.
dc_h
Active Member
If anyone needs a bullish sign, I have 23 CC's at 180 for next Friday. Hopefully our double bottom at 160 is a good base to rise up from here. If Tesla can hold prices here and contain costs, margins can rise 2-3% for Q2, which could put the stock on an uptrend.
All in, I have 2 172.5 CC, 2 175, 23 180 and 10 182.5. The 180 are a consolidation of longer term calls over 200 that I pushed out to may, when we rushed up from 100. Happy to roll the 180's in the unlikely scenario that is needed and wheel or roll the 172-175s.
All in, I have 2 172.5 CC, 2 175, 23 180 and 10 182.5. The 180 are a consolidation of longer term calls over 200 that I pushed out to may, when we rushed up from 100. Happy to roll the 180's in the unlikely scenario that is needed and wheel or roll the 172-175s.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Tesla has already reduced prices this quarter. There is zero chance of margins raising .... the question is how much are they going down.
I decided to go with a bird in the hand rather than two in the bush. I bought back my 160 Puts for next week for a 0.65 loss, and then bought back the 4,000 shares I had sold at 183 at 163.6 to lock in a $74k gain. If the stock drops below 160 next week I would have been better off waiting, but if it climbs to 170, I would have lost. So I took the sure thing. I have NO IDEA where we go next week or next month. I'm going to keep trying to scalp 0.2 on weekly covered calls, which translates to selling CC Leaps for $10 a year out. I'll eventually switch to selling a year out when the SP rises enough that I can do it for strikes closer to 400.
But earnings can still rise with higher sales volume. The bears liked ignoring the China Covid shutdowns in Q2 last year when Tesla slightly missed the 2022 guidance. Lets see if they bring it up when Tesla increases sales 100% YOY for Q2....
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Why is there zero chance of margins increasing? We were told on the call this week by Drew that 4680 is ramping as expected, with a 50% increase QoQ in volumes. That right there should improve margins on the TX MY. Commodity prices continue to drop/stabilize. That should also improve margins. And finally, Q1 is historically the lowest quarter for volume (Tesla or any other auto). Margins should improve just through volume additions.
I did a reversal, and decided that there wasn't enough good news in the ER to cause a rebound next week over the 185 level we were trapped at for two weeks, so I sold 187.5CC for 0.2 on 1/3 of my shares. I can't decide if I do more today or wait until Monday. But if we drop Monday, I'll regret waiting....
Though I haven't yet closed, the 145/135 put spreads for next week that I sold yesterday, will be closing before end of trading today. They're ahead about 70% (.50 down to .15) over the 1 day and is pretty much exactly what I was hoping for today. Flat to slightly up would crush the value on those to my benefit.
I'll be looking at opening a replacement on Monday.
I'll be looking at opening a replacement on Monday.
SebastienBonny
Member
I’m surprised that is considered untrue for Tesla only and it can’t get away with that, while you see it in the numbers every year.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I sold 180/185 call spread. And 185 CC in another account.
Still looking for a good entry point after the 182.5 exit for tax harvesting in Feb. I'm not convinced 162 is the low for now ....
Still looking for a good entry point after the 182.5 exit for tax harvesting in Feb. I'm not convinced 162 is the low for now ....
I have a bit the same problem with 12x July -p250's - only saving-grace is that I originally sold them for $82, however that was for getting out of DITM -c135's in the January reversal, so yes, painful, especially as I closed them a few weeks back to realise $26 per contract and then resold to replenish my cash, I was feeling very optimistic they would go OTM, and unfortunately I bought the straddled calls back too for some profits, which would have been much higher now...
There's nearly zero extrinsic, so I started buying them back today, not too much on realised losses, given the high premium in the first place, but it's over $100k in cash depletion... To that end I'll buy them back with premium proceeds a few each week. Today I closed 4x
It's possible they get assigned, and then what? Well I see December 2025 LEAPS are available, so to recover the $85 I could roll to -p200/-c330
However, I don't really like that, it a long time to have a decent chunk of capital unavailable, but it would get out of the situation if you're stuck, or Dec 25 -200 straddles pay $113k, so I could write 6x of those...
Issue with writing for December 2025 is that there's not future roll available at this moment, so if the SP shot up the calls would be difficult to treat...
But OK, just giving ideas...
I have the same. $7 is a lot. I'm not worried yet. Mine are part of a spread, so if the extrinsic goes to zero, I will roll the spread down for the same date. It will probably cost only $2 to roll it down substantially.
OK, I'll bite: STO 30x 4/28 -c160, I too feel this could drop a bit and want a small hedge
In any case, 20x of these contracts are will shares net price $169, so I can let them go if necessary and just worry about the 10x core shares. TBH, even if the SP rises, I doubt it's going to go fast, and a roll out to "whenever" is also a possibility as this is only a fraction of possible contracts
Waiting for Monday to see if it drops and to sell some shitputs for beer money
And BTC 4x July -p250 @$85 (8x still open, meh)
In any case, 20x of these contracts are will shares net price $169, so I can let them go if necessary and just worry about the 10x core shares. TBH, even if the SP rises, I doubt it's going to go fast, and a roll out to "whenever" is also a possibility as this is only a fraction of possible contracts
Waiting for Monday to see if it drops and to sell some shitputs for beer money
And BTC 4x July -p250 @$85 (8x still open, meh)
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