Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I think my trades are clear and transparent, you can check my posts.

For now I have a profit of 1549 USD and my position:
-2 Call July 270
-2 Put July 240

I know you said you're done posting here, but I just wanted to point out an inaccuracy.

Your current position is 2x July strangles of -240p/-270c. You should've collected premiums of $2600 if opened today (corresponding to when you closed the Jun -230c and opened the new strangles), but instead you've only collected $1549, indicating that you were actually carrying a $1000 loss from your previous trades. It's fine to believe that you know what you're doing, but claiming a profit when there's a loss is just self-deception.

 

[BornToFly]

The weak open today had me wondering if we were finally going to see a big red candle today. I had 50X -280CC for Friday that I wanted to roll to Jan 2024 450s. One option was to let them expire worthless, but then risk that the premium on the 450CC would be less if the SP dropped to 240 or lower. So I took the roll for a $6.8 premium. In retrospect, I left some money on the table. Part of me thinks we are going higher before P&D, but the other part thinks we went up so fast that we have a significant pull back coming. Obviously everyone is guessing, so I can't beat myself up for taking a guaranteed 0.23 for the next 30+ weeks, which was my original goal. I just have to hope now that 450 is safe for January....

Edit: Obviously, if we go over 450 I can roll to 2025, but rolling for strike improvement means no premium for a year, which would not be ideal.

 

[juanmedina]

Any thoughts about Q2? Troy's last numbers were still 10k short. This quarter we will see the full effect of the price cuts and how they affect margins.

I rolled 5x 210cc to Jan 300cc at a $17.5 debit per contract . On my other CC's I am going roll some sideways to finance higher strike rolls on other contracts and also use CSP's.

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[adiggs]

The weak open today had me wondering if we were finally going to see a big red candle today. I had 50X -280CC for Friday that I wanted to roll to Jan 2024 450s. One option was to let them expire worthless, but then risk that the premium on the 450CC would be less if the SP dropped to 240 or lower. So I took the roll for a $6.8 premium. In retrospect, I left some money on the table. Part of me thinks we are going higher before P&D, but the other part thinks we went up so fast that we have a significant pull back coming. Obviously everyone is guessing, so I can't beat myself up for taking a guaranteed 0.23 for the next 30+ weeks, which was my original goal. I just have to hope now that 450 is safe for January....

Edit: Obviously, if we go over 450 I can roll to 2025, but rolling for strike improvement means no premium for a year, which would not be ideal.

I find myself attracted to this idea of going out 6+ months on cc. Weekly income down, but a great strike and good income -- its sounding better and better to me

Along these lines I have:
- sold some Jan '24 370s for about $12. I'd be happy to sell at 370.
- partial close on some June '24 200s. Partly to get closer to 50/50 cash and TSLA, and partly to realize some of the gains from the last couple of months.
- closed some 225 CSP for next week. Roughly 90% gain when I closed, and keeps me clear should we head down for a bit.


If this run up has been as much about people buying calls, forcing options sellers to hedge and buy shares, then its occurred to me that a day with a pause is a good excuse for those call buyers to turn into call sellers and lock in their gains. Such a large run with so little news, can turn into a large run down on similarly little news.

 

[Hiline]

Any thoughts about Q2? Troy's last numbers were still 10k short. This quarter we will see the full effect of the price cuts and how they affect margins.

I rolled 5x 210cc to Jan 300cc at a $17.5 debit per contract . On my other CC's I am going roll some sideways to finance higher strike rolls on other contracts and also use CSP's.

I think deliveries are going to exceed expectations but earnings are going to come significantly under, both due to the price cuts. Net effect will likely be negative because of concerns on commoditization. I used to think stock price could go back to the 150’s following earnings, but the run-up was stronger than I expected. Q3 is anyone’s guess though; cybertruck deliveries and reviews may lead to another huge run-up in Q4. I didn’t expect TSLA to close above $250 for the year, but the strong macros may pull the stock over the $300 threshold.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

6/16 (I would roll everything out and OTM for credit)
-C255 (x19) + $5.87 premium; against the $243CB (nets $260.87 =$17.85/share; $33k gains; okay if called away, will re-buy the shares on dip)
-C270 (x4) + $1.70 premium; against 400 @ $269.97 CB (nets $271.70 =$1.73/share; $692 gains; maybe I'll roll this up and out)
-P250 (x2) + $2.75 premium

6/23
-C220 (x7) + $15.69 premium (=$235.69); waiting to see how SP is next week. Might roll or let exercize at loss between cost I can buy shares at this/next week or something else. Will see. (I would buyback or take the loss on these, too far ITM for rolling up).

-C245 (x19) + $13.09 premium (=$258.09); this will be the shares I re-buy after the 1,900 are called away 6/16. Hopefully not too far apart $$ and can be a wash, I don't mind. Better than realized loss of BTC the CC. If called away will re-buy again (hopefully on a dip). Try to roll these out a couple weeks, looks like you might get up to 260s for credit.

-P230 (x1) + $3.04 premium (roll up/out for more credit)

6/30 - Week before P&D (ugggg. Exercise or Roll at same strikes)
-C215 (x3) + $4.59 premium (=$219.59); monitoring for roll/BTC or something else
-C220 (x15) + $4.93 premium (=$224.93); monitoring for roll/BTC or something else
-C230 (x2) + $24.36 premium (=$254.36); monitoring for roll/BTC or something else

7/21 (perhaps ok to roll up, see comments)
-C240 (x15) + $2.34 premium (=$242.34); monitoring for roll/BTC or something else
-C245 (x4) + $2.04 premium (=$247.04); monitoring for roll/BTC or something else

9/15 (too far away to worry about yet, but buyback if possible)
-C240 (x19) + $5.62 premium (=$245.62); monitoring for roll/BTC or something else
-C270 (x3) + $2.57 premium (=$272.57); might buy 300 shares now toward this
+C360 (x35) @ $4.70 cost ($16.4k); as a delta hedge to help offset DITM CC's

12/15 (too far away to worry about yet)
1/19/24 (too far away to worry about yet)

@Jim Holder, my suggestions are in red bold highlights.

General info for everyone: strange profiles on the options trading for the next few weeks. Lots of call buying until July 7th, then it’s flipped to puts. I’m not sure if I believe it completely, but perhaps a continuing SP run until 6/30 (perhaps mutual funds buying for EOQ), then a pullback (hedgies take over). As always, be careful out there and GLTA.

 

[Jim Holder]

@Jim Holder, my suggestions are in red bold highlights.

General info for everyone: strange profiles on the options trading for the next few weeks. Lots of call buying until July 7th, then it’s flipped to puts. I’m not sure if I believe it completely, but perhaps a continuing SP run until 6/30 (perhaps mutual funds buying for EOQ), then a pullback (hedgies take over). As always, be careful out there and GLTA.
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Thank you!

From data on TradyTics it’s also showing July and rest of summer to be bearish:

6/30/23

7/7/23

7/14/23

Current dealer price support (anything below the ‘0’ line shows strength of support—here showing strongest support below $256):

Below also shows July looking bearish, little improvement rest of summer:

Lastly, Cary from Wicked Stocks suggests any close over 265>272>414 by EOY; a close below 252>242 (consider STC any +C)>226>203 after which TSLA can turn back up:

Perhaps this can calm our anxieties of a continued run before we can deal with our trapped short calls. That said, nothing is guaranteed and vigilance is the key.

 

[Max Plaid]

I find myself attracted to this idea of going out 6+ months on cc. Weekly income down, but a great strike and good income -- its sounding better and better to me

Along these lines I have:
- sold some Jan '24 370s for about $12. I'd be happy to sell at 370.
- partial close on some June '24 200s. Partly to get closer to 50/50 cash and TSLA, and partly to realize some of the gains from the last couple of months.
- closed some 225 CSP for next week. Roughly 90% gain when I closed, and keeps me clear should we head down for a bit.


If this run up has been as much about people buying calls, forcing options sellers to hedge and buy shares, then its occurred to me that a day with a pause is a good excuse for those call buyers to turn into call sellers and lock in their gains. Such a large run with so little news, can turn into a large run down on similarly little news.

Yeah, I too have moved from weeklies to monthlies, it's futile trying to run in front of TSLA when it's like this -> weekly puts are OK though until the direction changes, just committing 35% of my cash right now so if we do get a big reversal I'm not going to freak-out about it, plus I still have 126x July -c200's, so the wins there would outweigh having to deal with a few puts... that's my thinking anyway

If I could roll it all to c300's and the SP was higher, well I could conceivably close everything out, I would have enough to retire, but I'd land a big tax bill, so in reality would take some off the table and roll the rest, would be nice to be in a position to have my -c140's exercise to shares end of 2025, assuming TSLA goes where we think it will, we will see

It also occurred to me that now is probably a great time to buy some shitputs, I'm thinking about July 28 +p195's for $2, on the basis that earnings may disappoint on margin and the FED could conceivably hike rates at the next FOMC on July 26th, I think a few of those wouldn't do any harm, with the full knowledge that they will probably expire worthless, probably... would also facilitate writing more weekly puts to help roll these calls up. Hmmmm

 

[Max Plaid]

Just a heads-up from Frankfurt

 

[SebastienBonny]

Just a heads-up from Frankfurt

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We'll see where it starts in premarket trading, but this gives an idea.
Wouldn't mind consolidating here, but I wouldn't be surprised Q2 results will drag us down short term.
Current rise isn't driven by fundamentals (only) IMO and margins will bottom in Q2 for now.
But after all it's very hard to determine a fair value for Tesla. For some it's at 50 P/E, for others 30 or 100...

Keeping my eye on the premiums for my 225CC.
Being 34 at 30/06 now, rolling monthly would net me a juicy 700 bucks or more than 150 weekly.
Should we consolidate here it should remain like that, but if we do get higher that premium will get lower eventually of course.
I think I'll wait until the expiration week.

Just a heads up: being ITM at a strike I'm willing to sell for gives me patience.
Actually just sit and wait, because your options are limited.

 

[Jim Holder]

The selling started in PM, now $248.75 at 5:45am (down $8 dollars). I wonder how far it corrects and if there’s enough juice for a bounce.

 

[SebastienBonny]

The selling started in PM, now $248.75 at 5:45am (down $8 dollars). I wonder how far it corrects and if there’s enough juice for a bounce.

Just like the perfect storm to drag Tesla lower when we reached the 100s, this might have been a perfect storm to drag it higher.
Maybe macro-wise there was expected more from the FED and we correct a bit now.

 

[UltradoomY]

@Jim Holder, my suggestions are in red bold highlights.

General info for everyone: strange profiles on the options trading for the next few weeks. Lots of call buying until July 7th, then it’s flipped to puts. I’m not sure if I believe it completely, but perhaps a continuing SP run until 6/30 (perhaps mutual funds buying for EOQ), then a pullback (hedgies take over). As always, be careful out there and GLTA.
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I think the reasoning for July and August looking that way is that they just opened up - The weeklies only open up 30 days prior - just a 2 weeks ago there was nothing between the June 30th exp and the July Monthly and then nothing till August monthly.

So what I am seeing is people selling puts right now and being shy about calls until this record streak stopped.

Now that we have a breather - you will see the call sellers come in and establish positions.
I was looking to sell some calls between the P&D and earnings and saw the same thing, held out to wait for some steam to be removed from the freight train.

What I will be looking at is the closing cross for the June 30th exp. This will be the Quarterly rebalance and 1H repositioning before people go on vacation to the Hamptons and we can consolidate for a bit.

Seems as though, even though there was no "news," that a fund or institution was starting or adding to their position, which is what initially started the call buying gamma up.

That helps remove float and will keep me interested in knowing who when the disclosures are published in September.

 

[Jim Holder]

Is TSLA going to see a steeper selloff today down to $242 or below?

I know no one “knows,” just curious what you think/see based on the accumulated knowledge here.

 

[Max Plaid]

The selling started in PM, now $248.75 at 5:45am (down $8 dollars). I wonder how far it corrects and if there’s enough juice for a bounce.

I think it's just "them" pushing it below $250 for the TW OPEX

 

[Chenkers]

Is TSLA going to see a steeper selloff today down to $242 or below?

I know no one “knows,” just curious what you think/see based on the accumulated knowledge here.

We're sitting around the 5 day SMA/EMA in pre-market now and have dropped into a consolidation zone between $248 and $249.25. This is a natural supply zone to pause at but it really depends on where we go from here in today's main market trading. If there's a further push down the next resistance is $242 and the next supply zone is around $235 (gap fill) and if we get into correction mode then we can look to around the $217-223 area. However there's also a chance we can take a breather where we are until Friday's option close and then keep rising next week.

 

[BornToFly]

Macros really red this morning. I don't know if they are digesting Powell's comments about raising rates in a month? Maybe they trap the bears on a dip and then rip, or we are at the start of the reversal. Anything is possible. I'm feeling better about selling those Jan 450CCs when I had the chance yesterday.

 

[UltradoomY]

Macros really red this morning. I don't know if they are digesting Powell's comments about raising rates in a month? Maybe they trap the bears on a dip and then rip, or we are at the start of the reversal. Anything is possible. I'm feeling better about selling those Jan 450CCs when I had the chance yesterday.

First off - love the new jet pic!

Second - this is no coincidence!
It is not only TSLA Quad witching but the whole market. Powell did his job well.
The whole market needed to be brought down for tomorrow.
I thought this last week - but I just couldn't believe it this week!

I rolled my June $230's out to August $260's for a small credit yesterday because I was scared.... Jeez, couldn't even trade my own plan.
Didn't cost me any cash yet but now those are locked up till August.
Also sold my bought Puts ($225's) for an 80% loss - good times!

At least my July $250 straddles haven't been touched yet and are burning theta.

 

[BornToFly]

First off - love the new jet pic!

Thanks. Had to switch from the Honda to the Eclipse 500. A lot smaller, but most efficient jet on the market (so I feel good about that). The wife prefers getting out of a much more modest airplane as well....