Much appreciated. I'm self-taught and my main tool is EWT.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I’m comfortable being called away at those strikes and premiums. Not a problem.
Even IF CT was “announced” this week, I don’t think it’s a solid longer term catalyst for the stock. The EXPECTATION is that we’ll have some sort of announcement of the CT starting delivers, “in two weeks” or something like that. Short term bounce, sure, but it’s not going to roll into the numbers in a meaningful way until well into next year. IMHO.
I’m pretty confident delivery is not going to be in line with Q1 or even Q2 conference call projections. Could be wrong, but I’m betting that by Q3 con call the writing will be on the wall that both company specific AND macro is going to put doubt in the 1.8M 2023 target, and a meet is a MISS in the eyes of the Tesla trader.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
If Cybertruck is announce and price skyrocket due to inflation there wouldnt be a bounce nor would it. Troy PD numbers showed currently approx 20K less car produce vs Q2. That the big catalyst this week and next.
I'm trying to decide what to do with a bunch of Jan 2024 BPSs (these were rolled out from early 2022). -230/+193.3. The original plan was to let them expire worthless in January. I'm not so sure that will happen. When the SP dropped this morning, I could roll them a year to Jan 2025 -230/+195 for $3. With the SP at 247 it is $4. I'm hoping that if the SP climbs this week I could roll them for $5. Not great, but better than paying to roll them if the SP drops below 230. I also think 230 should be safe in 2025....
The other option is pay about $10 debit to close them, and then do weekly 2X BPSs, 15 wide, for 0.2 total. (So twice the number for 0.1 each week). That could be risky and stressful. I'm thinking about taking the roll this week to 2025.
The other option is close out the BPSs and sell a bunch of -250 Puts for Jan 2025, but that gives no income (just covers the cost to close).
Thoughts?
The other option is pay about $10 debit to close them, and then do weekly 2X BPSs, 15 wide, for 0.2 total. (So twice the number for 0.1 each week). That could be risky and stressful. I'm thinking about taking the roll this week to 2025.
The other option is close out the BPSs and sell a bunch of -250 Puts for Jan 2025, but that gives no income (just covers the cost to close).
Thoughts?
Please give the ranges in the morning tomorrow if you can....
Cary's Update for Tuesday:
- TSLA seems to have put in a mini-reversal signal today to the upside.
- Daily session high and possible containment for Tuesday is $253.57 and it might rotate down from there.
- A close Tuesday above $253.57 sets a good low for the week, with the next target being the low $270's within 2-3 days.
- If TSLA shows weakness again, $236-$233.95 is good bottom-picking area for a rotation up.
- A break of $231.61=sell signal/go short/sell calls
- A close above $273.17 leads to $288.77 where we can rotate back towards the low $230's.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
One thing I find kind of strange is how most of the YT analysts totally ignore correlation between index and stock. They will analyze hourly movement as if it's happening only to that stock.
IMO what would be really useful is talking about support/ resistance levels and where the stock performance differs from index.
IMO what would be really useful is talking about support/ resistance levels and where the stock performance differs from index.
TSLA relative performance to SPY is irrelevant when it can move 6-8% a day. Stuff like MSFT can and is being used to confirm movement in SPY. TSLA is a different beast.
I rarely open weekly spreads, but rather prefer calendar spreads, which gives a lot of flexibility for rolling. Could you roll out the +p side a year, then write weeklies against them to recuperate the premiums? Of course there's always the risk that the SP goes to ATH and the +p's lose value and it's no longer possible to write decent weekly premium, but TBH I don't see that happening any time soon in this current macro environment
The other upshot of buying longer dated puts it that you get downside insurance too, that's primarily why I bought March 2024 +p200's end of last week, to cover my ass for 6 months, but will write against 50% of them weekly to claw back the costs
I've noticed that TSLA seems to be more influenced by the QQQ, so when QQQ hits major resistance or support, TSLA will drop/bounce along with it most of the time, so yes, I think knowing the key levels in the indices is important
But indeed there are days where TSLA does the opposite, this is true
OK, this just hit the news to cause the big pre-market $TSLA dump at 5:53EST
Seems really odd as Teslas aren't "Chinese EV's" and neither are they subsidised by the CN government...
And actually, I don't see EV's being dumped on the European markets either, just BYD's you see around and they are very expensive
"TESLA’S CHINESE EXPORTS ARE A TARGET OF EU ANTI-SUBSIDY PROBE"
Seems really odd as Teslas aren't "Chinese EV's" and neither are they subsidised by the CN government...
And actually, I don't see EV's being dumped on the European markets either, just BYD's you see around and they are very expensive
"TESLA’S CHINESE EXPORTS ARE A TARGET OF EU ANTI-SUBSIDY PROBE"
They most likely will pivot at the same spots, but the magnitude of the pivot can be all over the place. On days when TSLA is really weak, it may bounce a bit with QQQ. However, when QQQ hits a resistance and falls back down to the same level it was, TSLA may fall much more dramatically and carve out a significantly lower low. If you predict TSLA will just fall back to the same spot based on QQQ and TSLA beta, you will lose money trying to catch a reversal. Same when it's stronger than the indices and that's all TSLA seems to be these days. Either weaker or stronger. Never in line.
Therefore, knowing SPY and QQQ levels might provide intraday info if you are day trading or scalping, but if you are writing a trading plan, like most guys do on Youtube, theres no use. Their aim is to give you daily range high, range low and maybe a few levels in between. They dont know how strong or weak TSLA will be at any moment vs QQQ tomorrow and so they dont know if support 1 is going to hold or will 2 and 3 have to come in. That stuff is real time.
Said another way, you can make money trading TSLA without looking at SPY or QQQ if you know TSLA. However, if you only know SPY and QQQ, you cant make money trading TSLA. So a read on the index helps, but its not inportant.
Anyone who thinks otherwise, feel free to come up with TSLA levels based on their read on SPY and QQQ. I'll wait. I trade with people who have intimate and precise read on indices, not just level- but timing-wise and when they trade TSLA, they come to me. Not the other way around. Another guy has 80-90% win rate day trading TSLA and he doesn't even look at SPY or QQQ. Feel free to disagree with facts.
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QTA Generated level for today:
Tuesday Range High: $248.12
Tuesday Range Low: $238.29
Tuesday Range High: $248.12
Tuesday Range Low: $238.29
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Tesla has a correlation of more than 90% with NASDAQ. It has also a high beta of 2.
But, as you note TSLA can have wild swings and that is what needs to be analyzed.
What I'm talking about is an analyst saying something like TSLA reversed in the 3rd hour without noting it was just following the index is being willfully blind.
IOW, a lot of the TSLA movement can be explained by index movement. What is interesting is the other portion.
OK, rolled down 20x -c260 to -c250 for +$2.6 -> these are written against Jan 2026 +c270's, so no sweat rolling them, but tbh I'm not so concerned about upside right now 
Have 20x -p270's to deal with this week, I might throw them out to next year, March, April, will look - these written against Dec 2025 +p270's, again no sweat
Have 20x -p270's to deal with this week, I might throw them out to next year, March, April, will look - these written against Dec 2025 +p270's, again no sweat
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
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OK, rolled down 20x -c260 to -c250 for +$2.6 -> these are written against Jan 2026 +c270's, so no sweat rolling them, but tbh I'm not so concerned about upside right now
Hi, can you explain briefly how writing against +C works? I have 7x 12/2025 +C150 and interested in using them to generate a bit of cashflow on the side this way if possible (without too much risk).
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
took half a day, but all turned up good, buffer two more dollars on the dec -P240 (closed positions again around 242.50)
already took a next bearish ride from 246 down (going slow, but steady). I almost maintain same portfolio-value these days, so I can hold on to the long positions that I do nopt plan to close anywhere soon (LEAPS and some stock outside $TSLA). Still keeping TSLA-long-powder dry, waiting for at least $230-ish SP. (still thinking this could hit 180)
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
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