What happened to the ‘breath of fresh air’?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
What happened to the ‘breath of fresh air’?
Yup, definitely stupid, but I managed to close it out this AM BEFORE the big SP dump began. I cleared over 10% return on the spread in 1 DTE! Lucked out (or maybe I got a bit wiser after the FOMC-induced dump). I decided against rolling because I didn’t like the feel of things as the SP started dropping through 255.
Anyone else buy right before close? Because I was feeling lucky, I picked up 10x 9/29 +c255s at $3.90 just in case there’s an IV bump on Monday. Sold 1x 10/06 -p245 for $9.20 (too early) and bought 10 shares. It was my first stock buy in months, so the SP will probably just keep dropping (that’s what usually happens when I buy shares).
Still short CCs on all my shares (10/06 -c270s, 09/24 -c300s, 12/25 -c310s). Only have 1x ITM CC left: Dec 2025 -c240 that I will try to close out if we drop back into the 220s. I probably should keep my free cash available for the bigger drop into the 220s, but will likely close out the 10/06 -c270s if we continue down. I hesitate to roll any of the CCs down because of the longer term upward channel. This week’s drop just feels like the whales setting us up, grabbing shares in anticipation of the cyber truck launch and great Q3 financials.Edit: Everyone please stop posting a bazillion questions for @dl003. Let him post his helpful insights on his own schedule. If you don’t understand, then go off and read everything you can find on the topic on Investopedia (or similar sites). We are all here to learn and support each other, but remember that it’s a TWO WAY STREET.
What I learned this week: Timing is crucial on spreads. Close the winners as soon as possible to book profits because they can turn into losses in minutes.
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EXOTIC1
Member
….., you wanna call it manipulated.
I’ll stick with rigged…..
Have a nice weekend
Thank goodness, I’m early retired but still hold a 4 qty digits of TSLA
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Some fun today, sold my 6,000 long shares at break of $252 and bought them back at $245.88 for a $36k win 
Wasn’t easy since I wasn’t convinced it’d go down that much and had to exercise patience as it gyrated its way. Still nice to make some money off the pirates’ moves.
I kept the following short calls into the weekend:
10x 9/29 -C280 @ $1.30 (now $0.27)
20x 9/29 -C285 @ $.80 (now $0.18)
20x 10/20 -C300 @ $3.75 (now $1.96)
Now remains to be seen if $245 holds or more pain ahead.
@dl003 thanks for your posts!
Wasn’t easy since I wasn’t convinced it’d go down that much and had to exercise patience as it gyrated its way. Still nice to make some money off the pirates’ moves.
I kept the following short calls into the weekend:
10x 9/29 -C280 @ $1.30 (now $0.27)
20x 9/29 -C285 @ $.80 (now $0.18)
20x 10/20 -C300 @ $3.75 (now $1.96)
Now remains to be seen if $245 holds or more pain ahead.
@dl003 thanks for your posts!
Whenever you find out the formula to bet on the side that's rigged, please let us know. That's all we're trying to do.Wall
it’s a totally rigged game. … Many of the legacy auto maker stocks are up today including Ford ……. Yet Tesla is down over 4%
Guess you just have to bet on the side that’s rigged.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Obviously, the bears have fired their warning shot with a clean break of AVWAP. However, I concur with @tivoboy (although I'm not sure if he still holds his view through the weekend), that the 252 253 level should be retested at least once. Here we have a clear 3 wave structure that has the potential to morph in a full 5 wave down. 244-245 is exactly where wave 3/C should terminate so it's about time for a shallow recovery to 252 before the reaching for the final target of 237. This impulsive leg down doesn't carry any unique identifier to help with predicting price action down here.
Right now the bias is firmly to the downside. I don't know if we'll bounce to 252 or if we'll go down to 237 after, but what I know is if that happens, then short every rally off of that until a lower low has been carved out. 5 wavers are not one-offs. There'll be a follow through at some point. You can see that we don't have a lot of room between the SP and the lower trendline. It means if we have a 5 waver for the 1st leg down, it's almost guaranteed we'll drop out of the 2023 uptrend and start (or resume) a multi month correction. Now, I try not to let the TSLA bull in me cloud my judgment. I just think that, logically, no bear is going to commit to that scenario right before P&D. In case they do, it'll speak volume to the intention of the big boys and we should start preparing for 185. Keep in mind that earlier in the week I didn't think they'd commit this far this early but apparently I was wrong. It will take a lot of surprises to fill the gap and a hell lot more to break 298. I'm talking maybe 20k P&D beat followed by a 1% gross margin surprise and re-affirmation of the yearly delivery target, maybe even a little price hike.
Right now the bias is firmly to the downside. I don't know if we'll bounce to 252 or if we'll go down to 237 after, but what I know is if that happens, then short every rally off of that until a lower low has been carved out. 5 wavers are not one-offs. There'll be a follow through at some point. You can see that we don't have a lot of room between the SP and the lower trendline. It means if we have a 5 waver for the 1st leg down, it's almost guaranteed we'll drop out of the 2023 uptrend and start (or resume) a multi month correction. Now, I try not to let the TSLA bull in me cloud my judgment. I just think that, logically, no bear is going to commit to that scenario right before P&D. In case they do, it'll speak volume to the intention of the big boys and we should start preparing for 185. Keep in mind that earlier in the week I didn't think they'd commit this far this early but apparently I was wrong. It will take a lot of surprises to fill the gap and a hell lot more to break 298. I'm talking maybe 20k P&D beat followed by a 1% gross margin surprise and re-affirmation of the yearly delivery target, maybe even a little price hike.
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Friday's QTA generated level review.
For the first time since tracking QTA this week TSLA took out the daily bottom range and the bottom 2sigma (rare) and didn't recover toward Max Pain or Abs GEX (unusual). According to QTA, statistically a stock below 2sigma is in an unnatural state and tends to want to revert to the mean and get above it (similar to its drop from being above 2sigma high last Monday on the gap up). Let's see if that plays out next, as @dl003 also posited as one possibility that may be coming up.
With QQQ and SPY in a precarious state it sure feels like a sell-the-rip environment. Perhaps time to bring short call strikes for 9/29 and even 10/20 closer to the money ($260-$275) or dangerous idea?
For the first time since tracking QTA this week TSLA took out the daily bottom range and the bottom 2sigma (rare) and didn't recover toward Max Pain or Abs GEX (unusual). According to QTA, statistically a stock below 2sigma is in an unnatural state and tends to want to revert to the mean and get above it (similar to its drop from being above 2sigma high last Monday on the gap up). Let's see if that plays out next, as @dl003 also posited as one possibility that may be coming up.
With QQQ and SPY in a precarious state it sure feels like a sell-the-rip environment. Perhaps time to bring short call strikes for 9/29 and even 10/20 closer to the money ($260-$275) or dangerous idea?
Today sucked. I was asked to help in a spine case today so I couldn't watch the market after the first hour and a half. Plan was to short the stock by selling shares and CCs if it broke the 152 support. When I scrubbed in the SP was around 256 so I thought it was going to be ok. Check after I'm done and see 244. So I made around $500 operating all day, and lost thousands in the process. Just great.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
No one anticipated the steep drop to the level we saw today. Selling 9/29 close to the money call before PD is high gain but also high risk. Chance of Macro bouncing back next week due to the deep reds. Wait it out Monday as the weekend can brings on some news that can affect the Market.
The two TA guys I follow, Dan Shapiro and The Daily Trader, had resistance at 152, and predicted a steep drop if 152 was breached. I had planned on acting on it, but could not be at the computer today.
Edit: Next resistance levels are 240.89 and 212. If we breach 240.89, hopefully 212 holds.
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EXOTIC1
Member
Some fun today, sold my 6,000 long shares at break of $252 and bought them back at $245.88 for a $36k win
Wasn’t easy since I wasn’t convinced it’d go down that much and had to exercise patience as it gyrated its way. Still nice to make some money off the pirates’ moves.
I kept the following short calls into the weekend:
10x 9/29 -C280 @ $1.30 (now $0.27)
20x 9/29 -C285 @ $.80 (now $0.18)
20x 10/20 -C300 @ $3.75 (now $1.96)
Now remains to be seen if $245 holds or more pain ahead.
@dl003 thanks for your posts!
Good job. I hope that one day I have the balls to let go of my precious shares even for a few hours.
What happened to Tesla today? why it went down so much? there were zero negatives news or anything bad as far as I can tell. We were the worse performing stock of the top 100 stocks by market cap by -1.65%.
I think some portfolio managers and/or hedge funds are front running P&D.
I’m not sure where we go from here either, but the lower Bollinger band at 235.61 might be an easy target, or perhaps that rising trend line near 233-234. Unfortunately, I bet on a Monday AM bounce, but a continued drop to $233 also looks like a good possibility.
Unfortunately, those massively bearish trades from 9/14, that I posted about earlier, are looking more and more prescient. Who knew that selling 24,000x $50 ITM calls for 1 month out would trigger such a SP dump? Go ahead and look at the current pricing for some of the highlighted trades; some are up over 5x as of today!!!!! Ouch, it pays to watch the whales trading options.
Edit: Looking at the stochastics, it looks like we still have a few more down days from here. Be careful out there folks. GLTA.
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Posted in the other thread, AI predicts $232.15 by Oct 1st, $278 by Nov 1st, $390 by 2024, and $570 by 2025. We shall see.
AI predicts Tesla stock price for October 1, 2023
AI predicts Tesla stock price for October 1, 2023
Right at the beginning of the day Barclays analyst reduced expectations for Q3 deliveries. Given most people (including analysts, hedge funds and PMs) probably subscribe to Troy’s delivery estimates, this was easy to see…I was wondering last few days why TSLA was showing so much relative strength despite delivery estimates going down significantly.
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Cary's update for Monday trading:
Up pivot level: $254.47
Down pivot level: $241.64
If TSLA opens or breaks below $241.64 it can test the $233.95 channel bottom same day and then rotate up from there. Decent bottom-picking area for longs. A close Friday below $231.61 area indicates a new sell signal and you may want to exit longs, expecting a fall toward the $217 and then possibly the $190's area in 1-2 weeks.
For upside, weekly buying pressures can be contained at $261.18 and rotate back down toward $230's.
Up pivot level: $254.47
Down pivot level: $241.64
If TSLA opens or breaks below $241.64 it can test the $233.95 channel bottom same day and then rotate up from there. Decent bottom-picking area for longs. A close Friday below $231.61 area indicates a new sell signal and you may want to exit longs, expecting a fall toward the $217 and then possibly the $190's area in 1-2 weeks.
For upside, weekly buying pressures can be contained at $261.18 and rotate back down toward $230's.
Thx for this insight @Jim Holder , I'm going to sell 2x ATM calls for this Friday.. it'll cover a margin loan I don't want to continue paying interest; weeklies are too volatile, up or down, not enough profit after fees and interest. If trend continues down, I have 2x 11/17 -C235 that might cleanup well.
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