Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

That was a posting that I had ready 2 hours ago going down and I did not want to post now anymore, because the gap already closed. So I just deleted it.
In other words: I meant a gap fill was imminent (which already has taken place) so we do not have a third island reversal anymore.
This would make a dump on Monday just a bit less dramatic.

 

[Max Plaid]

I'm sure "they" want it to close below 250, but the naughty macro just went against them, now we have a fun finish to the week!

Edit: hopeless... they had to crash the QQQ and SPY to try and drag TSLA down and still didn't make it

So now we wait and see...

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA Review

Stayed within ranges and closed at absGEX magnet:

 

[Jim Holder]

Just showing where we are vs where we are going if the chart continues to track April.

Any post-market thoughts on today’s price action?

 

[dl003]

Any post-market thoughts on today’s price action?

yes. Boring.

 

[Jim Holder]

yes. Boring.

Lol. I guess that means the plan for dump next week is still in play ;- )

 

[tivoboy]

Any post-market thoughts on today’s price action?

One word
manipuated!

but, in OTHER words, nobody seems to have any conviction.. it really would have been a place for INTERESTED longs to get some longer exposure, either in the equity or short to medium term calls, yet the call structure didn’t indicate that and actually deteriorated during the day.

As well as shorts, but I think in the end the tie goes to the runner, and the run is lower and so the majority of positioning (which would normally be LONG) wasn’t ready to step up to the plate and swing. so, as we’ve indicated six ways from Sunday, P&D is most likely going to be weak, and would probably indicate a lower annual P and possibly D, and even if it’s NOT weak, I think the WEAK sentiment will take some hold. I wish I had hit my call number basically ATM for Oct, but for me that is a further indicator of lack of confidence and upside directional sentiment from enough interested parties to make it so, at least in the short term.

I’m out in the high Sierras at least 10 miles from the nearest tower (and I’m not taking my Sat phone) for the coming 60 hours so GLTA for Sun P&D, and whatever a possible gov’t shutdown over the weekend, EOQ, October seasonal effect, UAW strike, EM on the border and puking nonsense opening bell on Monday - brings.

If the stock pops, someone will get my 10/20 -C255 for $20 (fire and forget)

;-0

 

[dl003]

In term of TA, I expect a test of 242 at the minimum before going any higher. That doesn't mean I think it'll go higher. I already placed my 200P bet so now back to day trading and 242 should be reached by Tuesday at the latest. Invalidation: P&D beats by 20k again.

 

[Jim Holder]

STC 7x +C150 12/2025 @137.50 - Planning to buy back lower

Added a few more:
STO 18x -C275 10/20 @$5.55
STO 18x -C285 10/20 @3.50

Sold 270 shares in smaller account @$254.75

Still waiting before selling half of the 6,000 longs.

In addition to the above:

BTO +P240 10/13 @$5.65

Sold 3,000 longs @$250 in post-market. Left 3,000 in as a hedge. Will cut them too if we tank Monday. If we race for some reason I’ll just have to wait for a retracement to get back in with the first 3,000 longs. My first time taking a leap like this and it’s somewhat unnerving, I need to learn to help my emotions match my conviction.

 

[Jim Holder]

In term of TA, I expect a test of 242 at the minimum before going any higher. That doesn't mean I think it'll go higher. I already placed my 200P bet so now back to day trading and 242 should be reached by Tuesday at the latest. Invalidation: P&D beats by 20k again.

Thanks for the extra info. So no elevator to 190 then, this will zig zag? Makes it more interesting (read: difficult) to play.

 

[dl003]

Thanks for the extra info. So no elevator to 190 then, this will zig zag? Makes it more interesting (read: difficult) to play.

Anything is possible atm. Saying it will go down 242 in 2 days doesn't really preclude anything from happening.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Any post-market thoughts on today’s price action?

I wonder if the close just slightly above 250 was actually on purpose, so that a whole bunch of retail call buyers just got shares, just in time for Monday’s post P/D dump. Who knows?

I’m pretty happy with my trading today, thanks to dl003. I’m not positioned 100% in either direction, but definitely better positioned for a decreased SP running into earnings. Near the $254 peak, I closed some Dec 2025 BCS +c400/-c410s for a small profit, closed 10/06 -p245s for ~50%, bought 11/17 +p200s. Then near the $247 low, I resold 10/06 -p240s for more than I had closed out the p245s. I also closed 9/29 ICs, rolling out the losing (BCS) side. Hopefully, those will eventually be closed or paired with a BPS when there is a significant SP drop.

As for interesting options trades today. Lots of bearish bets for the next few weeks, especially 10000x 10/06 -c265, 7000x 10/06 -c260, and 6122x 10/06 -c262.50.

Unfortunately, I can’t tell which way the following have been traded (bought or sold), but a few stuck out above the noise for me:
2000x Apr2024 p240s
2200x Jan2024 p200s
3200x Jan2024 c300s
4300x 17Nov23 c120s (interesting DITM trade)
1200x-1400x 17Nov23 p150, p195, p200s
9000x 20Oct23 p200s
6800x 20Oct23 p240s
4300x 20Oct23 c120s (interesting DITM trade, maybe a roll)

Edit: I agree with @tivoboy that there isn’t much conviction either way. Since we’re near the bottom of a rising channel, one would expect the bulls to be buying calls like there was no tomorrow. However, with the impending P/D, rates, gov’t shutdown, etc. one might also expect the bears to be buying truckloads of puts. I think the lack of convincing direction is because of those two diametrically opposed factors.

 

[Jim Holder]

Anything is possible atm. Saying it will go down 242 in 2 days doesn't really preclude anything from happening.

Thanks for tolerating my questions!

 

[CHGolferJim]

What happens if P is 440k, and D is 470k? (Don’t know end-2Q inventory levels, just throwing out pretty clearly D>P.)

STO several 6Oct$250 CC (~$252) for $8.70…………to do a small swing trade if we finish $250+.

 

[dl003]

Thanks for tolerating my questions!

I will update the game plan as well as a plan B on Sunday. There is still a bullish scenario in which the 234 low is violated only by a bit, but that's for Sunday. Enjoy your weekend guys.

 

[tivoboy]

I would take a look out at the term structure and current levels of max pain for monthly expirations going out to February 2024. It’s quite interesting.

I just re-ran these queries,, and for dec/23-mar/24, they have actually gotten worse.. so as I and @dl have commented, don’t be surprised if we see a sub $200 print between now and Dec 23, or high volatility between Dec 23 and Mar 24.

I promise that‘s my last post.. if you’re running a “wheres Waldo” query, I’m the ONE (7 of 8 available) at El portal. ;-0

 

[juanmedina]

What happens if P is 440k, and D is 470k? (Don’t know end-2Q inventory levels, just throwing out pretty clearly D>P.)

STO several 6Oct$250 CC (~$252) for $8.70…………to do a small swing trade if we finish $250+.

I would think we would get crushed with results like that and the stock will run; it shows strong demand.

The Cybertruck announcement and something like this can keep the stock from falling too much.

 

[Max Plaid]

I would think we would get crushed with results like that and the stock will run; it shows strong demand.

The Cybertruck announcement and something like this can keep the stock from falling too much.

View attachment 978300

My thoughts too, if deliveries are higher than production then it invalidates the "no demand" argument

Putting to one side any TA considerations and just focusing on the P&D numbers, assuming they come in the new expected range, 445k, there about, then I'm thinking it might be a big non-event. Has been a LOT of commentary in the media the last two weeks about the production numbers expected to be lower than Q2, so for anyone paying the slightest attention, should come as no surprise. Of course the usual detractors will jump on it and try to make it a drama, and as well are all too well aware, logic doesn't always apply to TSLA

 

[dl003]

My thoughts too, if deliveries are higher than production then it invalidates the "no demand" argument

Putting to one side any TA considerations and just focusing on the P&D numbers, assuming they come in the new expected range, 445k, there about, then I'm thinking it might be a big non-event. Has been a LOT of commentary in the media the last two weeks about the production numbers expected to be lower than Q2, so for anyone paying the slightest attention, should come as no surprise. Of course the usual detractors will jump on it and try to make it a drama, and as well are all too well aware, logic doesn't always apply to TSLA

For long term holders, most everything is a non-event. If you believe in 20m in 2032, +/- 20k in any quarter is simply a rounding error. Therefore, I try not to let the holder in me take charge because then these price swings would all seem irrational although they are real and going to keep happen. I think of price momentum as waves. They are either your every day friendly tides or tsunamis and these event are like speed bump. If a wave is small enough, a speed bump can drastically reduce its speed. If its a tsunami, you are going to need a Jaeger size coastal shield. So, just because its a non event it doesnt mean the SP is going to respond accordingly. Late Thursday and Friday was just the wave slowing down for the speed bump, not the end of it IMO.

 

[Max Plaid]

For long term holders, most everything is a non-event. If you believe in 20m in 2032, +/- 20k in any quarter is simply a rounding error. Therefore, I try not to let the holder in me take charge because then these price swings would all seem irrational although they are real and going to keep happen. I think of price momentum as waves. They are either your every day friendly tides or tsunamis and these event are like speed bump. If a wave is small enough, a speed bump can drastically reduce its speed. If its a tsunami, you are going to need a Jaeger size coastal shield. So, just because its a non event it doesnt mean the SP is going to respond accordingly. Late Thursday and Friday was just the wave slowing down for the speed bump, not the end of it IMO.

Well I'm positioned for down, up or sideways, so I don't really care much...