Well I'm positioned for down, up or sideways, so I don't really care much...
With that positioning, up should feel better.*
*Assuming you also have shares?
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Well I'm positioned for down, up or sideways, so I don't really care much...
I don't mean to pick on you, and if I'm wrong, please tell me so I learn. But this seems like the type of trading I try to avoid. Pure gambling. You have no idea what is going to happen and you just put up half your shares. I would have at least sold 30X ATM Puts. So if the SP climbs, you use the premium to get back the shares at a higher SP. But you went all in on a drop by buying Puts in addition to selling shares. What am I missing?In addition to the above:
BTO +P240 10/13 @$5.65
Sold 3,000 longs @$250 in post-market. Left 3,000 in as a hedge. Will cut them too if we tank Monday. If we race for some reason I’ll just have to wait for a retracement to get back in with the first 3,000 longs. My first time taking a leap like this and it’s somewhat unnerving, I need to learn to help my emotions match my conviction.
I think he and I share an expectation of high probability of an SP drop next week or sometime in the next month a la dl003’s work. Personally, I would never try to swing trade half my shares, but I’m fundamentally a HODL guy who does a limited amount of market timing gambling with options and rarely share sales and purchases.I don't mean to pick on you, and if I'm wrong, please tell me so I learn. But this seems like the type of trading I try to avoid. Pure gambling. You have no idea what is going to happen and you just put up half your shares. I would have at least sold 30X ATM Puts. So if the SP climbs, you use the premium to get back the shares at a higher SP. But you went all in on a drop by buying Puts in addition to selling shares. What am I missing?
Edit: I see that you also sold near the money calls, so you went 1000% in on a SP drop. You might be right and win THIS time, or not....
I agree that is what he is betting on. And it may happen, but it is a huge gamble. I thought about buying back 150X end of October 220 Puts and selling them again after a drop, but I didn't want to risk losing $2+ dollars/contract if I was wrong, so I just held them. Now if we gap down on bad numbers, I may buy them back and sell them again after a bigger drop, but I'm going to confirm the action is happening before making the move.I think he and I share an expectation of high probability of an SP drop next week or sometime in the next month a la dl003’s work. Personally, I would never try to swing trade half my shares, but I’m fundamentally a HODL guy who does a limited amount of market timing gambling with options and rarely share sales and purchases.
Just 2000 TSLA shares right now and they're for trading. Looking to get back in if we get a substantial correctionWith that positioning, up should feel better.*
*Assuming you also have shares?
Hard to estimate what kind of upside energy would provide (but I agree it will be better than Q2), but I do think Tesla might recognize a lot of the FSD deferred revenue as “autosteer on city streets” was delivered for pretty much anyone who has ever paid for FSD. However, that won’t be a quality earnings beat as investors might still focus on automotive gross margins excluding the recognition of deferred revenues.According to Yahoo, Q3 earnings estimates are already down to 0.78. A lot lower than the 0.91 we had in Q2. I'm guessing Tesla Energy will bring in even more revenue in Q3, so estimates are probably too low.
I don't mean to pick on you, and if I'm wrong, please tell me so I learn. But this seems like the type of trading I try to avoid. Pure gambling. You have no idea what is going to happen and you just put up half your shares. I would have at least sold 30X ATM Puts. So if the SP climbs, you use the premium to get back the shares at a higher SP. But you went all in on a drop by buying Puts in addition to selling shares. What am I missing?
Edit: I see that you also sold near the money calls, so you went 1000% in on a SP drop. You might be right and win THIS time, or not....
Plan A, then, would be the more bearish one. 255 on Friday was it and the stock would drop immediately on Monday, or chop sideways for a week, before dropping as big banks start cutting ER estimates. It can end anywhere between 210 and 172, or even lower, but for the sake of having an actionable game plan, let's say 192.
View attachment 978746
This plan A is both more likely to happen and supported by price actions during the last 3 months.
Have you closed all your long positions already. Closed 20% of them Thursday.Plan A, then, would be the more bearish one. 255 on Friday was it and the stock would drop immediately on Monday, or chop sideways for a week, before dropping as big banks start cutting ER estimates. It can end anywhere between 210 and 172, or even lower, but for the sake of having an actionable game plan, let's say 192.
View attachment 978746
This plan A is both more likely to happen and supported by price actions during the last 3 months.
Plan A, then, would be the more bearish one. 255 on Friday was it and the stock would drop immediately on Monday, or chop sideways for a week, before dropping as big banks start cutting ER estimates. It can end anywhere between 210 and 172, or even lower, but for the sake of having an actionable game plan, let's say 192.
View attachment 978746
This plan A is both more likely to happen and supported by price actions during the last 3 months.
Gotta see P&D first.Thank you for writing this up. Based on this scenario, if we retrace tomorrow it seems to get back in at $245-242 and watch if it bounces?
Im very light going into Monday, except monthly put spreads and naked short leap calls.Have you closed all your long positions already. Closed 20% of them Thursday.
Might at well close 50% of the rest at market open