Have Tesla ever closed green the day after a major price cut for the 3/Y? Especially now that the Y's LR is priced LOWER than the introduction MSRP of 49k. There was like a 99% chance today would be red and yet the 1% still won out. Absolutely amazing...
Yes, but you need major positive news to jump start a major bull run.
Usually Tsla decouples from macros and having delta up to a 10% loss or higher. Today was pretty strange as macro was strong, but not mind blowingly 2.5% move or anything.
Been reading this thread for a couple of years trying to understand options. I mostly hold long term. @DI003 never stated that TSLA was going to tank this week, he stated that the decline would happen at some point and then come back to around 240 by EOY. This week was a weird week as Deliveries and Production were down and we all know why Production was down due to retooling. Yet, the market responded by giving TSLA a higher stock price this week. I understand that by keeping manufacturing running strong, we may see efficiencies getting better but with price cuts, I am guessing margins will be hit again when we hear Earnings on the 18th.
I agree with Dl003's bearish outlook for the next few months or even 6 months or else I wouldn't have sold calls. However we all know Tsla is here to destroy expectations so maybe it was a case of everyone is bearish so have a bullish week to F with everyone.
Well I'm bearish because of rates not coming down for awhile. Essentially the banks took away a good portion of Tesla's profit and I don't think the market will reward Tesla stock any favors until we see some major improvements from margins with ASP down. Also we have a hard time growing volume next year @ 40-50% pace due to a lack of new factories.
On start of the day (and I was not able to watch SP a lot nor trade) I was holding p250 of which I chose to sell 1/3 @ enough (on opening) to cover for the other 2/3 that must be held to cover 100% of -P262.5. 1.5 hours prior to close I was surprised to see the evaluation of SP and closed -C260 as well as -P262.5both with a profit, leaving 2/3 of P250 expiring(at no cost). I was very surprised doing so well when premarket I thought it would be a big loss on positions (262.5-250 plus premiumdelta of 4 dollar= 8.50 dollar per contract) as well on SP where I went all in the day before. Everything green, except for the P‘s I bought for Oct 20 and Nov 10 and little P positions on ARM and KRE for oct20.paper loss was 1/3 of realised profits, so I am a happy guy. Certainly too on selling my model 3 as well yesterday, well above Tesla’s trade-in-proposal that as always was really sh*tty.
I think he will wait for the moment that Tesla is capable of increasing production turn-key and that all is aligned to make that happen as soon as the 7500 credit kicks in immediately on purchase. That will be the absolute lowest price you could ever buy a n electric vehicle way below any ICE that offers somewhat the same experience. Spin TOC as well and I think the valley of death will kick in immediately. For now CNBC and Yahoo finance trumpet pricedrops enough to get all production and inventory Sold. Keeping/ Rising Volume is what matters in economic lesser times, to be fully equipped to open the EV-floodgates when times get better where the competition can raise prises too, but have no EV’s enough to sell, creating wait-times of more than a year for current models. I think an ad-campaigne during holidays will give us a ripping Q1. Q4 will have a very high US-inventory. Ready to be delivered come 2024. US production Q4 will be astonishing, delivery will be high as well, but lag production in the US. China will be the other way around and Europe in between. For the stockprice I’m totally with @dl003, it will drop in Q4 after an intermediate high Soon (maybe it is already in), But 212 could be a bottom, if broken 189. Just my 2 cents.
Nice job salvaging the rest of the position! I had a similar situation, worse in that it was a +242.5/-252.5 put spread. An hour and half into trading, I was down -250% or more with SP nearing 251/252. By about 1pm or so I was able to buy back the sold puts (thanks for the suggest @LAexpress) , leaving the bought puts to expire worthless. The put side of the IC resulted in 90% profit for holding one 1DTE. Call side was -c272.5/+282.5, same 1DTE, expired and kept it all. Although nerve racking, remaining patient is key.
Be careful with this attitude. You basically did nothing and got lucky. The SP could have closed at 242 and you would have had a full loss. I lost 2/3 of my retirement in 2022 because I was "patient" and watched the SP drop despite Tesla increasing it's sales, to the point that my BPSs went to full loss and I had to sell 2/3 of my shares to get the money to pay to close the BPSs as margin vanished.
This.
Stocks follow statistics untold the herd gets emotional after MM decides to manipulate the stock the other way around.
Yes, remember January 13th?
Seems there is strong resistance at $261
