Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[juanmedina]

Yes I know he used to be a permabull before covid and now turned in a permabear once fed pivoted.

Cory talking about possible bottoming at $214 and selling probably reaching an end unless it is broken then recommends going risk off.

I deleted my post because last year it proved that anything is possible. I listened to last years earnings call and it was amazing compared to the one that we just had and Elon was pumping the stock. I hope we don't go that low because the end of last year was horrible, we even lost a member and I have PTSD from that whole experience. From what I recall last year the crash was aided by Elon selling a ton of stock, people like myself had too much leverage and got margin called and tax loss harvesting. I believe that this time not many have margin and actually have cash to deploy and Elon is not selling stock. I am still wondering if I should add puts back.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Rebound incoming this morning. SP is green premarket. Beware of the DCB. Macro aint too positive. Let see what today bring.

We have a mega gap fill on the upside

Will we sell off and go back under 200 because Elon had doomsday mood on the earnings calls. If it’s not Elon selling it’s Elon depressing making the stock crash.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Touched 216 premarket….going be a wild day.

 

[Max Plaid]

Also looking at selling aggressive weekly -c200's against Dec 2025 +p200, but risk there is that if the SP pops back up, say to 250, then the weeklies are worth more than the LEAPS, so would lose money in such a trade

Edit: which of course is cancelled-out by the 100x -p225's I already sold yesterday...

For sure writing ITM calls makes more money on a downside move... and it's less "final", meh

 

[elasalle]

SolarEdge SEDG - IV 111%, sold some Jan 25 $50 PUTS $8.10 each (small, contrarian play, i have no other stocks, options in this name)
Big spread in ask, vs bid .. what the heck ... SP down 34%

+ Used $$ to fund (40%) of some TSLA Jan 25 300 calls bought

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA Levels for Today:

Today's options what's left:

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Yes I'm also very confident in saying that around 212-214 is the bottom unless it isn't in which case it'll go lower.

You are making a little bit of fun, but technically there are levels. Which if broken fail and then you go to the next technical one, just because the market does too. You can go a bit beyond, but you only know the bottom AFTER it happens and these kind of ultimate bottoms last very short, so no real bounce, count on another falling down. That is especially important when you day trade. Which I sometimes do, but less nearing new bottoms.

 

[Jim Holder]

Next week (10/27) options update as of now:

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Like a said a few weeks ago, we should have an eye on SPX. 4150 should be a bounce-level (maybe DCB, but more likely not) Again we are 100 points above, so just a little drop needed and if that would coincide with an important $TSLA-level, I will take that as an important possible and more definitive turning point. (4180 being 38.2 fib level too)

 

[joh01652]

TSLA's PE ratio is still at a quite lofty 70, with negative earnings growth.

I get technicals and all, but hard to see the stock dipping just a little bit more but rebounded to over $250 (PE Ratio of 80).

Thinking this thing is going over $300 anytime soon (PE ratio of 100) is insanity IMO considering earnings are shrinking.

My guess is this thing oscillates +- $30 around $200 for the next 3 months.

When the big nothing-burger Hertz deal was announced in 2021 the PE was over 100 and the SP added $100 in short order. So, I don't know what you see in PE that's so important, but I don't bother with it in my swing and day trading, not even in my long term holdings. Tesla's PE was near 200 or something like that at the end of 2021. TSLA's PE can get way more insane.

PEs and quarterly earnings don't matter much in the messy chaotic world of real life trading and investing. And technicals didn't have anything to say when TSLA was in the low 100s earlier this year, nor when it was at $400. Footsteps of the past don't predict the future, whether it's huge TSLA SP moves or anything else. Expect to be surprised, especially with TSLA SP performance. A SP of $300+ is very possible over the next couple of months, not because of PE or earnings, but because of stupid things like a Hertz announcement or some other surprise. And more importantly, Tesla's financial health and global position is much better now than at their ATH at the end of 2021, while their "competition" (if they even have any) falters.

YoY earnings aren't everything. Musk Enterprises is slowly embedding itself into the very geopolitical-geocultural fabric of the world--not just energy and transportation, but space-military, NASA research, government satellite surveillance for the Department of Defense, global internet for underserved regions of the planet, global newscasting, etc. Tesla is helping to fund education here in the U.S. with specific engineering curricula to feed Tesla and SpaceX, and sponsors university engineering competitions and recruits students from major universities. Tesla will be a very prominent engineering and manufacturing firm for governments worldwide in the future. Take a step back and look at Tesla's earning over the past 5 years--it is not negative. Better yet, step outside, or open a web browser, and see how Tesla/X/SpaceX is changing the very landscape in which we all live.

You may be totally right that TSLA oscillates +/- $30 around $200 for the next 3 months. Or you might be totally wrong. We'll see. But I'm betting that TSLA SP is waaaay more complex than the simplistic PE ratios and earnings metrics you focus on.

 

[elasalle]

10 year crossed 5% and then retraced ..

+FOMC Meeting is Nov 1st ... so 10 days to go

 

[Jim Holder]

BTC rest of the -C500 12/2025 at SP $214.50, so now totally out of all 60 contracts between yesterday and today.
STO 2 additional -P300 12/2025 for a total of 24 @ $97.65. Plan is to let them run either closer to exp or BTC at next highs.
Following the plan to BTC short calls and STO short puts at SP lows. Not sure if this leaves me overexposed to buying 2,400 shares at $202.35 at 12/2025 if SP is below $300, but I like the R:R. Will watch how things play out and adjust accordingly.

Currently holding:
6,000 long, $307 CB, no margin
24x -P300 12/2025 @ $97.65
8x +C150 12/2025 @ $135.18
4x +C300 1/2026 @ $49.55

Inviting feedback on the mix. Not too late to change things around.



EDIT TO ADD:
I basically turned a -$358k liability incurred when rolling trapped CC's during June's run up, to -$231k by BTC the -C and STO some extra -P against them =$127k reduction in liability. Hoping to do this round-trip a few more times (Elon/market permitting) to wipe out the liability completely before the end of 2025.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

BTC rest of the -C500 12/2025 at SP $214.50, so now totally out of all 60 contracts between yesterday and today.
STO 2 additional -P300 12/2025 for a total of 24 @ $97.65. Plan is to let them run either closer to exp or BTC at next highs.
Following the plan to BTC short calls and STO short puts at SP lows. Not sure if this leaves me overexposed buying 2,400 shares at $202.35 by 12/2025, but I like the risk. Will watch how things play out and adjust accordingly.

Currently holding:
6,000 long, $307 CB, no margin
24x -P300 12/2025 @ $97.65
8x +C150 12/2025 @ $135.18
4x +C300 1/2026 @ $49.55

Inviting feedback on the mix. Not too late to change things around.

Assignment will only cause pain when SP below 197.65 (and that is not totally out of possibilities, but can, coming close, be countered by a shorter term +P. I don't expect the stock to go below 200 for a very long time. When yieldcurves invert back and stock goes up, I will surely STO -p, but always OTM, because I don't like being assigned unexpectedly.
LEAP's at that distance should be OK.

 

[thenewguy1979]

reenter for 13 x 200p 10/27 when SP rebound to 218. Reason is due to weak Macro and SP trailing below daily 13 EMA. Signed of continual weekness. Made by bet. Good luck guys

...my doggy sense telling me we may touch 212 today...

 

[Jim Holder]

Assignment will only cause pain when SP below 197.65.

Thanks. On LEAPS (like for 12/2025) if we dip below $200 in the next few months is early assignment still a thing or being as LEAP it's safe from that?

 

[intelligator]

I had a small +p200 lot that I traded for the first time. Maybe I paid too much for them, about time SP started slipping to 250 or so. Clearly not knowing when to sell, these are 90% loss at this point. I bought them with upside in mind, expectation that the SP continued to trend down. I'll have to keep a closer eye next time around, maybe shed a week ahead of expire, take whatever profits they bring at that time.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Thanks. On LEAPS (like for 12/2025) if we dip below $200 in the next few months is early assignment still a thing or being as LEAP it's safe from that?

because you don't know, what the buyers payed for their P and what their intentions are (lets say they want to short....) any ITM P is constantly at risk of being issued especially on a dump. We saw a lot of that going down to the famous 102 (jan 2023). As a matter of fact, if assignments are published in this thread, you know, it is not the bottom, but de race to the bottom... Not sure if such a thing will happen again is this period , but it sure could happen again. Some more black swans needed I guess.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Agreed. Higher risk of waiting vs taking smaller profit. The casino is hard to predict. Just dont look back or you will be hitting your head against the wall as many times you will be closing too soon

 

[SpeedyEddy]

At the moment $TSLA is holding up better than SPX, so it might plunge in a shorter timeframe to catch up with the rest (as I do not know of any news regarding Tesla to support a better than average SP. Oh, I see we are catching up to the downtrend just now.

 

[Knightshade]

STO 2 additional -P300 12/2025 for a total of 24 @ $97.65. Plan is to let them run either closer to exp or BTC at next highs.

This got me thinking of selling some of these to fund LEAP buying... selling -300P 12/2025 and buying +200C 12/2025 is net about $27.50 a contract right now and seems interesting? Early assignment on further dip (plus tying up 30k cash per contract long term) being the downsides but seems a reasonable way to sorta double dip some of the gain on a bounce higher?