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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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What troubling me, is when I forecast "a, b, then c", then a and b happen, but people keep asking me if c will happen as well or whether I've changed my mind. I mean, I'd understand if people expected me to change my mind had I been wrong on a and b, but I wasn't.
Trader lingo: a pullback doesn't precede a BOOM down. A pullback leading to a BOOM down is simply a crash.
Come on @dl003. You know the dog by now. He kinda dense. Take some times to digest.

Joking.....your TA prowess is highly respected here. especially me.
 
If the vote passes, a new lawsuit would have to be used to suppress it. Delaware rolling would be null, right?

Can't claim that after a widely publicized lawsuit that the shareholders were not fully informed in 2024.
I’m still confused by this and think you should be right but it seems that maybe by “re-ratifying” it’s not exactly the same as an official new vote. I think maybe we just can’t know until the courts decide what they decide.
 
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The idea of putting the data center in the extension still blows my mind as idiotic. Such a waste of resources not being in a stand-alone building further north on the site.
How is using part of an addition which itself is part of an existing building and can leverage its preexisting infrastructure worse than a from scratch building with no utilities nor employee amenities?
What resources are wasted?
 
People were saying the same thing in 2018...
The facts are:
A lot of stocks went 1000%+ in 2020 and 2021, not just TSLA.
Ark is massively down on almost every single position outside of TSLA, while SPY is at ATH
Ark sold NVDA at the low while claiming AI is the future
Arkk is down 70% from ATH
You can say "well, Ark invests in small cap tickers", but IWM is only 18% off ATH.
 
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I’m still confused by this and think you should be right but it seems that maybe by “re-ratifying” it’s not exactly the same as an official new vote. I think maybe we just can’t know until the courts decide what they decide.
Just a personal opinion, but believe the same or probably a higher court would have to review the Chancery Court finding, and possibly this new referendum could influence them to overturn.
 
i was right!!!!!! green today 🎯

and TSLA was best of Mag7 👀

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if you boys made $$$ today, congrats and enjoy some music from my playlist:

i am cautiously bearish going forward: SPY/NASDAQ showing negative divergences leading to reversals and at/above the upper-BB (MACD also going south)

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looking ahead 1 month:

SMCI possible 700
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NVDA still bullish
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TSLA chance of 160ish
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I’m still confused by this and think you should be right but it seems that maybe by “re-ratifying” it’s not exactly the same as an official new vote. I think maybe we just can’t know until the courts decide what they decide.
We are both right by logic, but as far as I'm concerned, the judge is corrupt, and the plaintiffs are evil, so they will no doubt try something. Which hopefully is more grounds for appeal... but the problem is they will never be charged with the felonies they are committing.
 
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So I'm still managinging my 1st quarter earnings call screw up. I could eat the loss, but while I have made mistakes, I am slowly working down how much I would eat to take the loss.

Meanwhile, I bought a straddle at $175 for this weekly shenanigans. I really feel that we are going $20 one way or the other when the votes are announced.

Also, my strategy going forward is developing. I saw Yoonas "5 premium wheel" diagram. (Below) and have been thinking about a modified version of this.

Where I have gotten into trouble in the past is the surprise $20 move. But I like strangles so I know how to manage them.

So the idea is this-- do below, only sell strangles instead of Straddles.

To mitigate risk, set the width of them out to %90 pop (10 deltas)

Do this weekly and manage. Trying to keep 50/50 shares and cash to cover puts (no margin)

If one side is threatened, roll up the other side.

In theory with a 10 delta the move is so outsized that you are happy to have the contract exercised and the likelihood of falling soon after is pretty good too.

Doing this weekly still nets you more premium per day for equivalent risk (delta anyway) than doing 45 day.

But this is based on this weeks premium and IVR is a bit high right now.

View attachment 1055671
i am at leg 2 of the Wheel and also didn't Straddle

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-c is covered so this is technically Covered Short Strangle, this allows me to go higher than 10Δ for more $$$
 
Welp….no need for any anticipation.

Elon just spilled the beans. Both big items are going to pass.

Anyone playing playing a bearish trade for tomorrow before the final results in after hours tomorrow is gonna get spanked.

The amusing part is that according to the graphs he posted, the vast majority of institutional holders, hedge funds, pension funds, etc…waited until the final days to cast their vote. No wonder Tesla was posting so much to get retail voters to vote. Seems like the big boys were threatening to hold out on their vote to put pressure on Tesla….and likely to try and create as much uncertainty as possible if they were wanting to pick up more shares
 
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Welp….no need for any anticipation.

Elon just spilled the beans. Both big items are going to pass.

Anyone playing playing a bearish trade for tomorrow before the final results in after hours tomorrow is gonna get spanked.

The amusing part is that according to the graphs he posted, the vast majority of institutional holders, hedge funds, pension funds, etc…waited until the final days to cast their vote. No wonder Tesla was posting so much to get retail voters to vote. Seems like the big boys were threatening to hold out on their vote to put pressure on Tesla….and likely to try and create as much uncertainty as possible if they were wanting to pick up more shares

Heh.

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They will complete this area this year... a new building would be 2 years from now.
The southend requred massive work prior to construction. They could have easily built anywhere else on the site, although north of the substation would have been ideal. If you look at the critical path for completing the southend data center (removal of concrete slab, relocation of plumbing, relocation of storm drain, auger-cast piers, re-grading... and then building a building on top of it) it becomes quite obvious how bad of a decision it was. Then add in the joy of adding a (second) new pair of duct banks and all the other things that go along with a data center... and the cooling towers between transmission lines.

I used to do this stuff for a living. I was kind of an expert in the field.

Had they built an independent building, they could have had a tilt-up structure completed inside 12 months for up to 40MW of critical load. And it could have been outside the flood plane. Hands-down it was the wrong approach.
 
Welp….no need for any anticipation.

Elon just spilled the beans. Both big items are going to pass.

Anyone playing playing a bearish trade for tomorrow before the final results in after hours tomorrow is gonna get spanked.

The amusing part is that according to the graphs he posted, the vast majority of institutional holders, hedge funds, pension funds, etc…waited until the final days to cast their vote. No wonder Tesla was posting so much to get retail voters to vote. Seems like the big boys were threatening to hold out on their vote to put pressure on Tesla….and likely to try and create as much uncertainty as possible if they were wanting to pick up more shares
By what he posted on Twitter it looks like a really big margin too. Pretty weird. Looks like the vocal minority are still being vocal.
 
By what he posted on Twitter it looks like a really big margin too. Pretty weird. Looks like the vocal minority are still being vocal.

Yeah the chart plays out like an nba team coming back from 30 points and taking the lead in the final two minutes. Crazy stuff.

As a life long NBA fan who’s lost years of stress to games….Tesla and Elon had to be sweating bullets going into this week