Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[thenewguy1979]

Perhaps the bottom from the earning call, but not the bottom driven by Macro.....got to see how SP react today and tomorrow. Generally there's a rebound after the deflation but who know what in store for Macro tommorow.

DI0003 - Please share any insight on where we heading in next couple of days/weeks. Thanks.

 

[elasalle]

Personal looks ugly, but still Jan 25 400 CC's got me 60% gains and closed. Opened March 320 CCs just to cover some of the expenses of closing the Jan 25s.
Closed for $13, opened for $7 ... cheers!! (bought back 9 mths, for 50% of cash) ... maybe end of Nov, CT day will provide an opportunity to roll back again

 

[juanmedina]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1715039840171958542

 

[dl003]

My read is SPY bottomed out at 420. How long that bottom is good for remains to be seen, but what followed it revealed a lot about the path forward.

From 420, SPY made a clear impulsive rally consisted of 5 green waves, the 5th of which is made up of 5 red sub waves and is far longer than conventionally expected. We call this an extended wave 5. When an extended wave 5 forms, the correction that follows will take it back normally to the area between the bottom of red sub wave 2 and bottom of green wave 4, which is the red box down below. It's been my expectation that SPY would eventually revisit this area before going back up, no matter how many tricks it threw at bulls and bears. It did that today and so let's see if we have another run.

When the first leg up or down is made up of 5 waves, then what's the lesson? Yes, there will be a follow through. If SPY makes another run of equal length to the 420-438 run, it will get to 445, conveniently testing the upper trendline. If it breaks out of this trendline, we're looking at SPY 470-500 in early 2024. Maybe it won't break out of 445, but the fact that it's so close to the red box gave me doubt about TSLA falling much more from the AH low yesterday.

Car and residential home sales have crashed. There's no way around it. These are the building blocks of the American economy. Meanwhile, corporate earnings have proven more resilient than feared. I think we have a combination of a lack of bearish narratives and a hope for rate cuts in the near future.

Yes, last night ER was a miss. However, is it enough to make me question my decision to be in TSLA? No, and neither should most people. TSLA is falling not because it's a failure, but because the Fed is. I think it's going to be one of the components in a hopium-fueled year-end rally as car makers are direct beneficiaries of easing monetary policies. Q3 ER is already yesterday news. In the next run, I think many people will think "but, but, but TSLA is not making any more money than last year, how could this be?" but the fact is it doesn't have to make more money than last year. It just has to make more money than Q3 2023 to join the hopium trade. What remains to be seen now is where is the bottom?

Also remember TSLA went down to 212 in August as market was trying to price in a bad Q3 ER. It's proven bad now but where is 212? Maybe the market went too far?

 

[Cherry Wine]

My read is SPY bottomed out at 420. How long that bottom is good for remains to be seen, but what followed it revealed a lot about the path forward.

From 420, SPY made a clear impulsive rally consisted of 5 green waves, the 5th of which is made up of 5 red sub waves and is far longer than conventionally expected. We call this an extended wave 5. When an extended wave 5 forms, the correction that follows will take it back normally to the area between the bottom of red sub wave 2 and bottom of green wave 4, which is the red box down below. It's been my expectation that SPY would eventually revisit this area before going back up, no matter how many tricks it threw at bulls and bears. It did that today and so let's see if we have another run.


View attachment 983523

When the first leg up or down is made up of 5 waves, then what's the lesson? Yes, there will be a follow through. If SPY makes another run of equal length to the 420-438 run, it will get to 445, conveniently testing the upper trendline. If it breaks out of this trendline, we're looking at SPY 470-500 in early 2024. Maybe it won't break out of 445, but the fact that it's so close to the red box gave me doubt about TSLA falling much more from the AH low yesterday.
View attachment 983529
Car and residential home sales have crashed. There's no way around it. These are the building blocks of the American economy. Meanwhile, corporate earnings have proven more resilient than feared. I think we have a combination of a lack of bearish narratives and a hope for rate cuts in the near future.

Yes, last night ER was a miss. However, is it enough to make me question my decision to be in TSLA? No, and neither should most people. TSLA is falling not because it's failure, but because the Fed is. I think it's going to be one of the components in a hopium-fueled year-end rally as car makers are direct beneficiaries of easing monetary policies. Q3 ER is already yesterday news. In the next run, I think many people will think "but, but, but TSLA is not making any more money than last year, how could this be?" but the fact is it doesn't have to make more money than last year. It just has to make more money than Q3 2023 to join the hopium trade. What remains to be seen now is where is the bottom?

Also remember TSLA went down to 212 in August as market was trying to price in a bad Q3 ER. It's proven bad now but where is 212? Maybe the market went too far?

Welcome back!

 

[thenewguy1979]

Thanks you DI0003 for the write-up. Guess we're looking at recovery on the positive end moving on out. That's definitely would be great.

 

[Jim Holder]

My read is SPY bottomed out at 420. How long that bottom is good for remains to be seen, but what followed it revealed a lot about the path forward.

From 420, SPY made a clear impulsive rally consisted of 5 green waves, the 5th of which is made up of 5 red sub waves and is far longer than conventionally expected. We call this an extended wave 5. When an extended wave 5 forms, the correction that follows will take it back normally to the area between the bottom of red sub wave 2 and bottom of green wave 4, which is the red box down below. It's been my expectation that SPY would eventually revisit this area before going back up, no matter how many tricks it threw at bulls and bears. It did that today and so let's see if we have another run.


View attachment 983523

When the first leg up or down is made up of 5 waves, then what's the lesson? Yes, there will be a follow through. If SPY makes another run of equal length to the 420-438 run, it will get to 445, conveniently testing the upper trendline. If it breaks out of this trendline, we're looking at SPY 470-500 in early 2024. Maybe it won't break out of 445, but the fact that it's so close to the red box gave me doubt about TSLA falling much more from the AH low yesterday.
View attachment 983529
Car and residential home sales have crashed. There's no way around it. These are the building blocks of the American economy. Meanwhile, corporate earnings have proven more resilient than feared. I think we have a combination of a lack of bearish narratives and a hope for rate cuts in the near future.

Yes, last night ER was a miss. However, is it enough to make me question my decision to be in TSLA? No, and neither should most people. TSLA is falling not because it's a failure, but because the Fed is. I think it's going to be one of the components in a hopium-fueled year-end rally as car makers are direct beneficiaries of easing monetary policies. Q3 ER is already yesterday news. In the next run, I think many people will think "but, but, but TSLA is not making any more money than last year, how could this be?" but the fact is it doesn't have to make more money than last year. It just has to make more money than Q3 2023 to join the hopium trade. What remains to be seen now is where is the bottom?

Also remember TSLA went down to 212 in August as market was trying to price in a bad Q3 ER. It's proven bad now but where is 212? Maybe the market went too far?

TSLA @ $216-217 ATM, are you still holding your shorts; more pain ahead?

Edit: Also, yesterday we learned on the ER call that Q4 and 2024 margins might also be soft (even if they hit 1.8M this year) due to "macro issues/interest rates"; modest CT ramp; slowing of Mexico ramp; no release date for Highland in USA; etc. so perhaps the true read is "lower for longer," so a deeper spanking to the SP is due?

 

[Jim Holder]

BTO 4x +C300 01/16/2026 @$49.55

In addition to longs, currently holding:
8x +C150 12/2025 @ $149.80
4x +C300 01/16/2026 @ $49.55
21x -P300 12/2025 @ $96.41
15x -C500 12/2025 @ $36.69

 

[dl003]

Looking for a shallow retracement here to 226.5 - 228 before the final thrust down to 215-210.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Closed my +240p for 111% profit on them. Coupled with the loss on the call side of the strangle I'm walking away with an overall 16.9% profit on the 1 day trade. If we dip tmrw down to $200 I'll sell another 4 week csp atm.

 

[Jim Holder]

Above is this morning's options positioning for this Friday expiration, below is current.
Look at the shift in put walls:

 

[Jim Holder]

Updated option data for NEXT Friday (10/27) for those considering opening any positions:

 

[mongo]

Pull up and correct to close at $220.11, what is this, expirations day???

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[Jim Holder]

Pull up and correct to close at $220.11, what is this, expirations day???

Maybe they did it to get out of SSR for AH? I’ve heard that if SSR is on into AH it can lead to a short squeeze AH and/or PM. Or perhaps SSR goes back on AH anyway after 10% drop? Dunno. Not my specialty so just passing along. Maybe the experts here can chime in.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Will look for a rebound tomorrow before joining back in. Seem we are anticipating a lower low. How low would that be ? 180? 190? or around 210?

 

[Max Plaid]

Well that sucked! Was busy most of the evening too and missed several opportunities to salvage a few $$$ closing out my puts in the low to mid 220's

In the end I closed them out around 217, nasty!, also the hopium -p230's I sold as well, bad move that was, really thought we'd bounce, almost did it at 10:00, but then macro headed south and that was that!

Anyway, rolled everything to 100x -225 straddles for next week, seems the best way too get the SP up is to write some risky calls...

On the plus side, my March +p200's are now printing, but going to keep writing against those, follow them down if I can, but that's hard to do when it dumps 15% in two days -> sell the rumour, sell the news!

This time last week we were scratching at 270, crazy!

 

[thenewguy1979]

It was a highly volatile day. Really thought we hit base at 223 but of course it went down to 217 after closing all my puts. Tomorrow maybe another one of those wild days. Seem we are now anticipating a small bounce before continual deflation.

Be vigilant and be careful. Take profit along the way and don't look back.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Looking for a shallow retracement here to 226.5 - 228 before the final thrust down to 215-210.

The 212 is important as prior gap-up fill, now that we are so close we better close that gap and bounce immediately after filling it, if not immediately (violently) then your stay will not only be appreciated by all of us, but maybe still earned on a 189 as last resort. Got some powder dry to issue at 212 and then will get back in on the 2026LEAPs against-P after either bottom.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Good plans guys. My doggy brain is learning a little more everyday. No matter we hit 200 or not it's been great riding with all the great minds here.