Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

because you don't know, what the buyers payed for their P and what their intentions are (lets say they want to short....) any ITM P is constantly at risk of being issued especially on a dump. We saw a lot of that going down to the famous 102 (jan 2023). As a matter of fact, if assignments are published in this thread, you know, it is not the bottom, but de race to the bottom... Not sure if such a thing will happen again is this period , but it sure could happen again. Some more black swans needed I guess.

Good point. Extrinsic showing ~$21.10 and intrinsic is ~$85.21. So quite a ways to go time-wise until extrinsic is down to pennies/early assignment chances.

I guess my 8x +C150 and 4x +C300 can work as a form of hedge against half of the -P300.
Anything else I can do to set up a proper hedge?

PS I added to my original post, in case it was missed: By BTC -C and adding the -P here I basically lowered a -$358k liability incurred when rolling trapped CC's during June's run up, to -$231k by BTC the -C and STO some extra -P against them =$127k reduction in liability. Hoping to do this round-trip a few more times (Elon/market permitting) to wipe out the liability completely before the end of 2025.

 

[Jim Holder]

This got me thinking of selling some of these to fund LEAP buying... selling -300P 12/2025 and buying +200C 12/2025 is net about $27.50 a contract right now and seems interesting? Early assignment on further dip (plus tying up 30k cash per contract long term) being the downsides but seems a reasonable way to sorta double dip some of the gain on a bounce higher?

That's along the lines of what I was thinking, but I am still finding my way with options so don't count on my opinion ;- )

 

[thenewguy1979]

Touched 212. Continued sign of macro weakness pushing SP down.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Oversoldness is a fact on the daily, like I was looking for.. Third in a Row, ALWAYs later on followed by a Huge run up (not necessarily immediately!!! can take a few weeks!!)
Did already buy back in a bit @ SP $211.60

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[thenewguy1979]

Broke 212 cleanly. At 211. Owed DI0003 a beer… more like packs of beers.

Free trades for me on these puts. I cash out most a day ago. Will keep and see how it goes into next week.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

The more oversold today, the bigger the signal I was talking about.

 

[Jim Holder]

10/27

 

[SpeedyEddy]

STO -P march '24 150 to buy me C 520 jan '25

 

[thenewguy1979]

agreed, there should be a big rebound for the gap filled. However, not sure when we touched base. Macro aint too good now. Tesla can further cut prices to meet Q4 PD. That would also drive down SP. There's no war in the middleeast a month ago....

A lots is happening. No fault to Tesla but the earning call didnt help much. Just a perfect storm. We can either wait till the storm ended and ride it up or ride with the storm....

Would be great if DI0003 can shine some of his input now since we touch 210 (not broke yet).

 

[SpeedyEddy]

+ Another bunch of shares on the jump ($212.60)

 

[thenewguy1979]

slight rebound to 212-213. See if that hold as SP did hit 210. Maybe that's base??

 

[Knightshade]

Also kinda temped to (as I should have when we got near $100) flip some shares to LEAPs-- but that earnings call kinda made it sound like 2024 would be... not great? CT will be a money loser until 2025 and relatively low volume even then, S/X sales keep declining, next-car car factory being pushed back, pulling back on growing 3/Y production, solar continues to be a garbage business... only bright spot at all really was energy margins and it's still a small % of revenue.... so other than macro things like rate cuts what are people thinking as real catalysts to get us nearer 300 than 200 in the next 3-12 months?

 

[juanmedina]

Got December 25 $200 LEAPs for $76.45 I had sold them at $110.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

once we over 216, I guess this was the bottom, at least for the week.
Regret having sold to close NVDA and KRE puts much too early.
Happy to have rolled and now closed Palantir hedges, to now buy a bunch of those shares too.
I guess some people are trying to close in at least a bit on maxpain for many stocks, so a rise into the close?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Also kinda temped to (as I should have when we got near $100) flip some shares to LEAPs-- but that earnings call kinda made it sound like 2024 would be... not great? CT will be a money loser until 2025 and relatively low volume even then, S/X sales keep declining, next-car car factory being pushed back, pulling back on growing 3/Y production, solar continues to be a garbage business... only bright spot at all really was energy margins and it's still a small % of revenue.... so other than macro things like rate cuts what are people thinking as real catalysts to get us nearer 300 than 200 in the next 3-12 months?

What you name is what brought SP down already. or does it need to do that every day from now on?

 

[thenewguy1979]

once we over 216, I guess this was the bottom, at least for the week.
Regret having sold to close NVDA and KRE puts much too early.
Happy to have rolled and now closed Palantir hedges, to now buy a bunch of those shares too.
I guess some people are trying to close in at least a bit on maxpain for many stocks, so a rise into the close?

Sold my prior puts on Tesla too early. Waiting to see if we dip a 2nd times below 212 before I offload for today. Seem to hang on to 212 so far. We'll see..

 

[elasalle]

Thought of the Day : if everybody in Market thinks they will buy the dip at 200, it will not reach 200 ....
Let's see if this ages well or not

 

[thenewguy1979]

maybe it goes below 200 so we get to buy the bigger dip

 

[BornToFly]

I've become a lot more bearish since earnings. EPS for next year is probably around $3. Not long ago we were looking at $12.
I rolled -265P for end of November to -250P Jan 2025 because there was little extrinsic left. A little bummed because I only got about $10 (I was getting $5+ on months rolls when closer to the money). Need to keep watching Jan 2024 175/200 BPS. I want them to go away completely. Can roll them out a year for about a $3 credit right now, but I don't want the risk over my head. I was thinking SP 400-500 in Jan 2025. Now I don't know if we hit 300.