Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

That's the thing, for folks with stuff like 12/8 225 puts- sell in the morning if we open around low 230s (with a week of time value left) for the profit or wait and see if we get more dump vs theta decay?

Expiring tomorrow I've got CCs at -237.50 and -242.50, the higher ones surely look safe to let expire, but will probably put BTCs in at 90% first thing for both to be safe.

Got a few dec 8s and 15s as well. On an early drop of course I will sell, because if it drops tomorrow, maybe that can continue, but at least we cash the theta on that too. On Monday, we can get back in if trajectory is very clear. But I hope to be back long before my luck runs out, because one thing is sure: we are nearing a major bottom more likely than that we just had the all- and overtime high ) Which reminds me of my MA convergence post: $230 is the middle of the 20,50,200,365 MA, so the longer we hold around 230, the closer the lines wil converge, and the bigger the chance that after divergence starts that will be because of oversoldness, so to the upside. I will keep yell posted about that expectation, but be long that case in time after that call !

 

[Jim Holder]

$232.50 AH and not stopping.

@dl003 Good call on putting back on the puts!

Thankfully I’m net short in CC’s but still have my longs.

Wonder where the floor is…maybe $231.92

View attachment 995151

Nice recovery, back over $236. Options holders miss out on the AH action

Now let’s see it hold into open, hit $241 and drop again all day.

 

[tivoboy]

Bought puts (3rd roundtrip):
25x BPS -220/+225 12/15 @$1.00

Also after a few roundtrips today, STO accompanying synthetic shorts:

10x -C270 12/15 @1.40
10x -C275 12/15 @1.02
10x -C280 12/15 @0.76

I would double thumbs up if I could.

 

[tivoboy]

That's the thing, for folks with stuff like 12/8 225 puts- sell in the morning if we open around low 230s (with a week of time value left) for the profit or wait and see if we get more dump vs theta decay?

Expiring tomorrow I've got CCs at -237.50 and -242.50, the higher ones surely look safe to let expire, but will probably put BTCs in at 90% first thing for both to be safe.

I’m not selling the @225’s till we have something with a 21x in front. Sometime between now and next Friday.

 

[Jim Holder]

I’m not selling the @225’s till we have something with a 21x in front. Sometime between now and next Friday.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I’m not selling the @225’s till we have something with a 21x in front. Sometime between now and next Friday.

pretty sure you won't after tomorrow..

 

[Jim Holder]

pretty sure you won't after tomorrow..

What do you mean?

 

[juanmedina]

pretty sure you won't after tomorrow..

I remember seeing your call for $210's earlier....

 

[SpeedyEddy]

What do you mean?

Jim, It is my guess we will have 1 dip below 230 and I would not be surprised for that to happen tomorrow.
Combined with my yesterday found AND published MA convergence-theory there will be a Mayor move beyond 25% soon and IMHO that would most possibly not be down, because there simply seems to be no Room for that (but we will know the direction soon enough, within 4 days after MA divergence starts I guess we will have lift off, so Tivoboy, will most likely sell P's like most of us on the next dip and if that is not tomorrow, then I guess divergence will start Monday or Tuesday, most likely upward as explained and then it will go so fast, you will have to strap your b*lls and get rid of those costly puts.
I bet on a big V tomorrow. Yes 225, Yes closing price a lot above. I bet, but I do not recommend any action, just tell you what I think and I will do and what I think Tivoboy would do. No warranty, no advice, just my logic based on my own voodoo (And yesterday I really messed my own trading up, so I'm not always that good) But the MA convergence-theorie has some logic to it as I explained yesterday
The only thing is: I am not yet 100% sure about the direction of the bigger than 25% correction coming, but as soon as I think I know, you will be informed.

 

[tivoboy]

Jim, It is my guess we will have 1 dip below 230 and I would not be surprised for that to happen tomorrow.
Combined with my yesterday found AND published MA convergence-theory there will be a Mayor move beyond 25% soon and IMHO that would most possibly not be down, because there simply seems to be no Room for that (but we will know the direction soon enough, within 4 days after MA divergence starts I guess we will have lift off, so Tivoboy, will most likely sell P's like most of us on the next dip and if that is not tomorrow, then I guess divergence will start Monday or Tuesday, most likely upward as explained and then it will go so fast, you will have to strap your b*lls and get rid of those costly puts.
I bet on a big V tomorrow. Yes 225, Yes closing price a lot above. I bet, but I do not recommend any action, just tell you what I think and I will do and what I think Tivoboy would do. No warranty, no advice, just my logic based on my own voodoo (And yesterday I really ****ed up, so I'm not always good) But the MA convergence0theorie has some logic.
Only thing is I am not yet 100% sure yet about the direction of the +25% correction coming, but as soon as I think I know, you will be informed.

So, you’re saying IT’s POSSIBLE..

cause, I mean that my additional entry pricing is ~ $180 at this point, which would be ~ 25% DOWN from here.. I still see a sub $200 (more like sub $190) between now and end of Feb 2024, but my read is that we’ll get early sell off, then some recovery, then won’t have full final sell off till Q1 2024, and then load up the truck (okay, not the truck)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

So, you’re saying IT’s POSSIBLE..

cause, I mean that my additional entry pricing is ~ $180 at this point, which would be ~ 25% DOWN from here.. I still see a sub $200 (more like sub $190) between now and end of Feb 2024, but my read is that we’ll get early sell off, then some recovery, then won’t have full final sell off till Q1 2024, and then load up the truck (okay, not the truck)

Yes, That theory can still coincide with mine if divergence starts tomorrow and the movement is down (for sure if falling does not stop by wednesday, but then we all get a chance to buy new puts, because) in that case the move will go 25% at least, so below 180 and that looks impossible to me to reach in a few days (hell freezing over prohibited)

 

[tivoboy]

That theory can still coincide with mine if divergence starts tomorrow and the movement is down (for sure if falling does not stop by wednesday, but then we all get a chance to buy new puts, because in that case the move will go 25% at least, so below 180 and that looks impossible to me to reach in a few days (hell freezing over prohibited)

Yeah, certainly not in a “few days”

 

[dl003]

Jim, It is my guess we will have 1 dip below 230 and I would not be surprised for that to happen tomorrow.
Combined with my yesterday found AND published MA convergence-theory there will be a Mayor move beyond 25% soon and IMHO that would most possibly not be down, because there simply seems to be no Room for that (but we will know the direction soon enough, within 4 days after MA divergence starts I guess we will have lift off, so Tivoboy, will most likely sell P's like most of us on the next dip and if that is not tomorrow, then I guess divergence will start Monday or Tuesday, most likely upward as explained and then it will go so fast, you will have to strap your b*lls and get rid of those costly puts.
I bet on a big V tomorrow. Yes 225, Yes closing price a lot above. I bet, but I do not recommend any action, just tell you what I think and I will do and what I think Tivoboy would do. No warranty, no advice, just my logic based on my own voodoo (And yesterday I really messed my own trading up, so I'm not always that good) But the MA convergence-theorie has some logic to it as I explained yesterday
The only thing is: I am not yet 100% sure about the direction of the bigger than 25% correction coming, but as soon as I think I know, you will be informed.

You are onto something here. I'm coming to the same conclusion. A dip to maybe 233 and hold till lunch tomorrow, then reversal.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

You are onto something here. I'm coming to the same conclusion. A dip to maybe 233 and hold till lunch tomorrow, then reversal.

It would IIMHO be more logical that the shorts also get their exit AND the market makers get their max-pain in order, so a perfect day for a last dip, maybe even oversoldness (the prior theory..) and Retail given a chance to hand over the shares to the institutionals, that after lunch thank the market makers for regulating things by buying anything BELOW 230. (now I will stop, because one thing only can happen if you predict too much (and I already did that: You will be wrong somewhere..) just a thought: 235-223-237.5 would be a perfect setup to profitably close all of my puts and make my best trading day ever (I must not forget to buy the shares back, that I sold on the way down, so that would be arounmd noon.. mmm. maybe it will take more than a day, If only CT event would have been yesterday already....

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Tomorrow fireworks expected at least! Sorry for most of you, that it happens during daylight

 

[EVNow]

…. that after lunch thank the market makers for regulating things by buying anything BELOW 230. …

That’s not what market makers do. They do delta hedging and unwind as options get closed. Not sure why this conspiracy theory persists…

 

[Jim Holder]

That’s not what market makers do. They do delta hedging and unwind as options get closed. Not sure why this conspiracy theory persists…

I don’t see a contradiction, it could be they're buying in order to unwind.

 

[dl003]

I posted an update. Potential hidden bullish divergence tomorrow. Must close each 4h candle above 234.18 for a new leg up to survive.

 

[EVNow]

I don’t see a contradiction, it could be they're buying in order to unwind.

They are entirely different- conspiracy theory is that the MM manipulate price to peg the closing price. The reality is it is completely automated delta hedging that takes into account millions of options being closed and opened on Fridays in 100s of securities.

 

[Knightshade]

They are entirely different- conspiracy theory is that the MM manipulate price to peg the closing price. The reality is it is completely automated delta hedging that takes into account millions of options being closed and opened on Fridays in 100s of securities.

Yeah it's not like market makers ever get caught/fined for manipulation!
Oh, wait....

Morgan Stanley Fined $22.1 Million in Market Manipulation Case - BNN Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley was fined 20 million euros ($22.1 million) by French regulators after the bank’s London desk was accused of using “pump and dump” tactics to manipulate sovereign bond prices.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Morgan Stanley doing exactly that

SEC.gov | Citadel Securities Paying $22 Million for Misleading Clients About Pricing Trades

www.sec.gov

Citadel doing exactly that

SEC.gov | SEC Charges The Hydrogen Technology Corp. and its Former CEO for Market Manipulation of Crypto Asset Securities

www.sec.gov

Some MM I never heard of doing that

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/final-notices/winterflood.pdf

Large UK based market maker Winterflood doing exactly that

https://www.nytimes.com/1988/12/07/business/shearson-fined-25000-on-reported-stock-scheme.html

Shearson doing exactly that

Mexican banks fined 26M pesos for market manipulation practices, CNBV head says

Mexican banks have been imposed with more than 26 million Mexican pesos in fines for alleged market simulation or manipulation practices in the trading of government securities, El Financiero reported citing the head of Mexico's CNBV.

www.spglobal.com

Merrill Lynch doing exactly that

Korean brokerages fined for “inappropriate” market making, likely to challenge FSS - Pulse by Maeil Business News Korea

The slapping of 48 billion won ($41.5 million) fines on nine local and foreign brokerages houses by the financial regulator for “unsuitable” market-making practices has stoked protest among Korean brokerages, sending some

pulsenews.co.kr

9 different MMs in korea doing exactly that

Broker and OTC market maker Wilson-Davis Co. fined by SEC for Reg SHO violations – Goode Trades

OTC MM Wilson Davis doing exactly that
How many examples is sufficient?